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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th

A

Aquamarine

Member
Road said:
Nothing from Sony or Nintendo either. This does not paint a good picture. Console gaming is already in dire straits and the lack of celebration for black friday sales is not encouraging.

It also doesn't make sense to say they're waiting for NPD, since it has become completely irrelevant due to it not tracking downloads.
Click to expand...

Completely irrelevant?

Nah. It's less relevant than it was in 2008...but it still captures like 75-90% of total software sales depending on the title. That's not "completely irrelevant" status.

The day NPD becomes irrelevant is the day that the good majority of console software sales occur through digital platforms...that's just not the case in 2014. Maybe 10 years from now.

And, it will always be relevant for hardware + accessory sales.

But I agree that no PR from Microsoft is concerning...not in a "Microsoft might not have won Black Friday" sense, but in a "Black Friday sales might have underwhelmed relative to Microsoft's expectations and they're disappointed" sense.
 
S

spatenfloot

Member
Aquamarine said:
But I agree that no PR from Microsoft is concerning...not in a "Microsoft might not have won Black Friday" sense, but in a "Black Friday sales might have underwhelmed relative to Microsoft's expectations and they're disappointed" sense.
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If they are disappointed with the sales after such massively subsidized bundles, there may be no hope for them. What is left? Giving them away with Windows 10?
 
G

Ghost Rider

Member
I heard a report today that said overall Black Friday sales were down across retail. The belief was that the sales are actually spread out more instead of just concentrated on BF. Analyst suggested that in the end sales will be similar but just not all focused on happening in an ~36 hr span
 
C

chithanh

Banned
Aquamarine said:
"Black Friday sales might have underwhelmed relative to Microsoft's expectations and they're disappointed"
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If the reports of XB1 BF bundles selling out almost everywhere are true, how could they have expected more?

If I had to guess, Microsoft knows pretty well how much they sold. They just don't know whether PS4 sold more.
 
C

chadskin

Member
chithanh said:
If I had to guess, Microsoft knows pretty well how much they sold. They just don't know whether PS4 sold more.
Click to expand...

Well, they don't need to know how the PS4 did in November to announce they've sold 10 million consoles. But who knows, I wouldn't read too much into it either way just now.
 
A

ascii42

Member
Aquamarine said:
Completely irrelevant?

Nah. It's less relevant than it was in 2008...but it still captures like 75-90% of total software sales depending on the title. That's not "completely irrelevant" status.

The day NPD becomes irrelevant is the day that the good majority of console software sales occur through digital platforms...that's just not the case in 2014. Maybe 10 years from now.

And, it will always be relevant for hardware + accessory sales.

But I agree that no PR from Microsoft is concerning...not in a "Microsoft might not have won Black Friday" sense, but in a "Black Friday sales might have underwhelmed relative to Microsoft's expectations and they're disappointed" sense.
Click to expand...

Plus it's not like console hardware can be digitally downloaded.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
chithanh said:
If the reports of XB1 BF bundles selling out almost everywhere are true, how could they have expected more?

If I had to guess, Microsoft knows pretty well how much they sold. They just don't know whether PS4 sold more.
Click to expand...

I think its fairly safe to say MS sold more consoles during Black Friday. Wonder if they are worried about their USA numbers getting drowned out by Sony's worldwide numbers.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Mrbob said:
I think its fairly safe to say MS sold more consoles during Black Friday. Wonder if they are worried about their USA numbers getting drowned out by Sony's worldwide numbers.
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Seems possible. The PSX event is pretty much the only thing that makes this December different from previous Decembers for this topic. Positive that Sony will make some sort of sales announcement at the event; MS may try to 1-up them next week and then have that snowball into the NPD results.
 
N

Nightengale

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Seems possible. The PSX event is pretty much the only thing that makes this December different from previous Decembers for this topic. Positive that Sony will make some sort of sales announcement at the event; MS may try to 1-up them next week and then have that snowball into the NPD results.
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How can they?

Sony Sales Update on the grand stage are always worldwide figures. They rarely comment on regional performance unless it hits some sort of local benchmark.

MS already revealed their "WW expected benchmark" which is 10 million.

And Black Friday PR will not one up a global Sony update.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Nightengale said:
How can they?

Sony Sales Update on the grand stage are always worldwide figures. They rarely comment on regional performance unless it hits some sort of local benchmark.

MS already revealed their "WW expected benchmark" which is 10 million.

And Black Friday will not one up a global Sony update.
Click to expand...

I never said that Sony will state regional figures; It will be a 1-up in a PR sense when it comes to new positive news. There's obviously a bigger difference in worldwide sales when compared to North American sales but the latter would be more recent news if MS stated it after the PSX event (obviously). It would also be a stepping stone for the November NPD results and those results are going to get a lot of attention period -- regardless of Sony's news about worldwide sales.

MS stating the news after PSX makes more sense to me from a positive PR standpoint vs. doing it before the event; especially with the worldwide vs. North America point that you (and others) brought up.
 
G

Goodacre0081

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Seems possible. The PSX event is pretty much the only thing that makes this December different from previous Decembers for this topic. Positive that Sony will make some sort of sales announcement at the event; MS may try to 1-up them next week and then have that snowball into the NPD results.
Click to expand...

if the rumors are true and Sony really does have a megaton or two at PSX then people will be talking about that next week and not NPD results. the time to do PR is this week, before the event
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
MS stating the news after PSX makes more sense to me from a positive PR standpoint vs. doing it before the event; especially with the worldwide vs. North America point that you (and others) brought up.
Click to expand...

It might be possible MS will wait until their January event before disclosing holiday numbers; I don't even know when NPD comes out this month, but the way I see it if they lost November they'll just keep quiet about it; then closer to their event they can talk about combined holiday sales.
 
M

Man-is-Obsolete

Member
Hmmm...interesting that there is no PR, though I guess even if MS sold more in the US it will look really petty of MS to gloat about winning one month of the year...in one territory...while still losing ground WW.
 
C

crinale

Member
Goodacre0081 said:
if the rumors are true and Sony really does have a megaton or two at PSX then people will be talking about that next week and not NPD results. the time to do PR is this week, before the event
Click to expand...

Well does it make sense that MS already knows what Sony would announce in coming few days?
 
M

MrJonnyBigBoss

Banned
There's no doubt that the PS4 and Xbox One sold like hotcakes. My guess is Xbox One sold around 950,000 while the PS4 sold around 800,000.

Wii U... probably sold around 225,000. It's too bad because I love my Wii U!
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Goodacre0081 said:
if the rumors are true and Sony really does have a megaton or two at PSX then people will be talking about that next week and not NPD results. the time to do PR is this week, before the event
Click to expand...

Not sure I get your point. Sony's megatons (if true) will definitely make people forget about the Black Friday news from MS if MS stated it this week; i.e. before the event.

Also, people won't be talking about NPD next week? The most "interesting" NPD month out of the whole year so far? Highly doubt that. People will talk about both PSX and NPD for many days and talking about both will be better for MS (well, if Xbox One gets November) than people only talking about what happened at PSX.

____________

BlackBuzzard said:
Lol with BF numbers?

Sony just unveiled a megaton, well who cares Microsoft won Black Friday...

The time for good PR is now not during or after PSX.
Click to expand...

Like I said before, I don't get this. You say it's "now" when yet the PSX event is a few days away and will more than likely cause the news to quickly fade away. Your "who cares" point would be even greater if they stated the news now -- Sony would be able to perfectly respond to it (possibly even unintentionally). People will definitely forget about North American sales info if news about worldwide sales comes out only a few days later, especially at a big event.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
It might be possible MS will wait until their January event before disclosing holiday numbers; I don't even know when NPD comes out this month, but the way I see it if they lost November they'll just keep quiet about it; then closer to their event they can talk about combined holiday sales.
Click to expand...

NPD comes out next Thursday.
 
A

A_Gorilla

Banned
Maybe MS is just playing it safe this year and waiting for the NPD. Nothing would be more embarrassing for them right now than a "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
My theory when they released the famous almost 10 million sold PR earlier this month was that they had already saw they were losing momentum and weren't sure they would win the month so they got out the boasting PR out there while they were still certain they could.

Still believe they won November but by a much closer margin than they anticipated.
 
D

driver116

Member
gtj1092 said:
My theory when they released the famous almost 10 million sold PR earlier this month was that they had already saw they were losing momentum and weren't sure they would win the month so they got out the boasting PR out there while they were still certain they could.

Still believe they won November but by a much closer margin than they anticipated.
Click to expand...

With Microsoft, if there's anything to be spun, they spin it.
 
O

On Demand

Banned
Maby the sales gap is not that big for MS to brag about. I still think people thinking PS4 got outsold by 300k is a little too much. I think it's no more than 130K if they did. If PS4 is the top selling console, then around the same amount too. I don't think either really dominated each other. Which would be good for Sony more than MS.
 
D

DBT85

Member
On Demand said:
Maby the sales gap is not that big for MS to brag about. I still think people thinking PS4 got outsold by 300k is a little too much. I think it's no more than 130K if they did. If PS4 is the top selling console, then around the same amount too. I don't think either really dominated each other. Which would be good for Sony more than MS.
Click to expand...

There were estimates in here suggesting the Xbone doing 2:1 against the PS4. 300k gap is tame by comparison lol.
 
M

Miles X

Member
Maybe Nintendo are quiet because the results are more disasterous than usual.

Last Nov NPD they did over 1m+ hardware (just about). This year with 3DS being down month over month and maybe Smash not giving the boost they had hoped for they could be looking at 450k 3DS and 300k WiiU. Which probably means BF was under 500k all units combined for them.

One year they released on a Wednesday tho, so you never know ...
 
C

chithanh

Banned
Mrbob said:
I think its fairly safe to say MS sold more consoles during Black Friday.
Click to expand...
Is it? I think the most plausible explanation for the lack of PR is that MS cannot say with enough confidence that XB1 outsold PS4 during Black Friday.

The effect of such PR will rapidly diminish as the memory of BF fades from the minds of consumers. If they won, there is no better time to tout it than right after the event.

In the first two weeks of November, Microsoft knew XB1 sales and they also got reports from everywhere that XB1 was the best selling console. In contrast, BF possibly gave them mixed reports with some retailers selling more PS4s.
 
M

m@cross

Member
I expect anything MS will announce will be aimed to happen after PSX. This will maximize its impact and help to remove some of the focus on the PS4 created by that event.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Miles X said:
One year they released on a Wednesday tho, so you never know ...
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They were very silent last year in December when the WiiU had its best month ever. It was still pretty bad (<500k), but much better than expected given how silent they were.
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
crinale said:
Well does it make sense that MS already knows what Sony would announce in coming few days?
Click to expand...
How would they? They didn't expect the 8GB GDDR5 announcement and that'd of came with a lot more lead time than w/e they're announcing @ PSX.

ThoughtsOfSpeaking said:
I think im going to revise down my predictions. Ive got a feeling there is going to be alot of doom and gloom in the NPD thread.
Click to expand...

Yeah I'm starting to question MS's measure of that "3x last week October" number; if they meant sold-in vs. sold-through, they might've done about in the middle of my old and revised predictions.

Okay I'm revising my numbers:

[Wii U] 255k
[XBO] 686k
[PS4] 720k
[3DS] 280k
[360] 225k
[PS3] 186k
[PsVita/TV] Dead k

I still think PS4 was maybe supply-constrained, but I don't think XBO was doing as well in those first two weeks as MS PR made it out to be, even when you factor in the SO bundle numbers. So still a lot better than the 1st prediction but not even close to the revised on.

I'm gonna lock these numbers now, no more changes from meh.
 
D

Death2494

Member
T

theprodigy

Member
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
How would they? They didn't expect the 8GB GDDR5 announcement and that'd of came with a lot more lead time than w/e they're announcing @ PSX.
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that's the point, they probably don't know
Death2494 said:
Info was a direct contradiction to NPD last year. They claimed that Microsoft one black Friday but lost NPD sales for November 2013
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1. Black Friday=/=November, especially when sales were concentrated on launch day for both of them
2. that's not the point, the point is that Microsoft didn't even have to say anything to have "Xbox won Black Friday" be circulated thanks to them, true or not

context, people
 
D

Death2494

Member
PhatSaqs said:
That'd be hilarious considering how many site have already reported that X1 outsold PS4 for BF.

I'm betting on next Weds for a PR.
Click to expand...
ALL the articles reporting are only using the info report to sustain their claims. I was following all the major retailers and the GTAV bundle was meant moving a lot of units. It sold out on Amazon and was number 1 on Gamestop.com. The Assassins Creed remain in stock this entire month not selling out once on Amazon. But I still expect Xbox one to take 1st this month but not by much.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Duxxy3 said:
Launch aligned the dreamcast still holds a 2/3 million unit lead, and that's with the dreamcast being discontinued months ago.
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:(

To be fair, during summer 2001, Dreamcast had amazing game releases, and was $99.

Aquamarine said:
The Dreamcast sold 259K in November 2001 (Dreamcast hardware production ended March 2001).

I really hope the Wii U is -at least- able to beat that this holiday season.
Click to expand...

Thats when the GC and Xbox launched and the PS2 was a monster, and the GBA was also taking names.

Bar has been set.
 
D

Death2494

Member
theprodigy said:
that's the point, they probably don't know

1. Black Friday=/=November, especially when sales were concentrated on launch day for both of them
2. that's not the point, the point is that Microsoft didn't even have to say anything to have "Xbox won Black Friday" be circulated thanks to them, true or not

context, people
Click to expand...
So Aaron Greensburg posting that bogus picture was Microsoft keeping quiet? But now that Black Friday is done, no PR.
 
P

PhatSaqs

Banned
Death2494 said:
ALL the articles reporting are only using the info report to sustain their claims. I was following all the major retailers and the GTAV bundle was meant moving a lot of units. It sold out on Amazon and was number 1 on Gamestop.com. The Assassins Creed remain in stock this entire month not selling out once on Amazon. But I still expect Xbox one to take 1st this month but not by much.
Click to expand...
Ass Creed bundle outsold the GTA bundle for the month. GTA bundle selling out and Ass Creed bundle being still avaialble doesnt mean much at all except MS obviously shipped more and they're still the top seller.
 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
I need a miracle to finish the year in a good place so, even though I believe Xbox One will be the best-selling system I will put PlayStation 4 on top. Those 10 extra points for correct hardware ranking would come in handy.

[360] 290,000
[3DS] 540,000
[PS3] 165,000
[PS4] 805,000
[WIU] 300,000
[XB1] 845,000
 
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