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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Frag Waffles
Member
My guess is the X1 will end up being $350 after the holidays and PS4 will remain at $400. If that's the case, I see a return to status quo (PS4 winning as it did all this year) because the holiday madness along with MS crazy discounts and promotions won't be in effect.
Aquamarine
Member
You shouldn't use either one.
An intelligent, experienced GAFfer generally does a better job than both Pachter and Chartz.
Instead of looking at third-party sources, why not pay attention to what your fellow GAFfers have predicted?
pharmboy044
Member
Do these new bundles dictate that Sony lost November and needed a bundle to compete with MS so they created these for December or were they preplanned?
I only ask because, I don't think I've seen Sony have another bundle type after their Black Friday bundle but I could be wrong.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
It was advertised on Newegg starting over a week before Black Friday, so it must of been their December plan all along.
Final Verdict
Member
Different Gaffers on here have largely varying opinions. Are there any on here who you could/would recommend as being a more reliable prediction than others?
I only ask because I am not exactly a longstanding member here, and it is sometimes hard to know who is, and how one person's opinion should weigh against another's.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Well, to be perfectly honest, Aqua is always a very thoughtful and insightful contributor, so she would be a good place to start^^ At the Gaf home page you can see the NPD threads area and look at past winners and try to get a feel for who the optimists, pessimists, and jokers are^^
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
They are also losing money on each unit sold; if they remove the games from the bundles and keep the base @ $349 they'll only break even and have to count on attach rate and XBL subs to make up the costs and get them profit.
Also, it doesn't really matter if XBO wins NPD from here on b/c in order to make up for underperformance in other markets and get any substantial profit MS would have to win each one by the hundreds of thousands, at the very least 2.5:1 their favor...for the rest of the foreseeable gen. That just won't be happening whatsoever and I don't think the system will take any further months after the holidays.
I would imagine PR would not cone out until Wednesday at the earliest if they won.
KenPokesBarbie
Banned
[XB1] 915K
[PS4] 870K
[3DS] 500K
[WIU] 305K
[360] 240K
[PS3] 150K
[PS4] 870K
[3DS] 500K
[WIU] 305K
[360] 240K
[PS3] 150K
Aquamarine
Member
It is officially Tuesday, so NPD results come out the day after tomorrow.
Welfare
Member
theprodigy
Member
Welfare
Member
I don't have time to edit thatmore like 66 hours by now
WinterDemons
Member
[360] 105K
[3DS] 280K
[PS3] 70K
[PS4] 792K
[WIU] 325K
[XB1] 832K
[3DS] 280K
[PS3] 70K
[PS4] 792K
[WIU] 325K
[XB1] 832K
Dude - do what the rest of us do & pull some numbers out of your ass.
[360] 100K
[3DS] 270K
[PS3] 80K
[PS4] 850K
[WIU] 400K
[XB1] 900K
freefornow
Member
[XB1] 814k
[PS4] 673k
[WIU] 276k
[3DS] 171k
[360] 146k
[PS3] 67k
[PSV] 64k
[PS4] 673k
[WIU] 276k
[3DS] 171k
[360] 146k
[PS3] 67k
[PSV] 64k
metalslimer
Member
Are these sub 300k predictions for the 3DS serious btw? It seems like that would be a massive disappointment even with Nintendo doing barely anything in terms of bundling.
MaulerX
Member
Don't think it implies much for November. If anything, if they didn't win November then it could be construed as pre-emptive PR talk to shift the focus to life-to-date sales.
Do you remember last year Nelson's PR spin : "fastest selling console"? :-D
theprodigy
Member
yeah....3DS is gonna blow right by GAF's "average" with all those sub 300k predictions lol
I´ve seen this stated a lot in the last couple of weeks as fact - but how do we know that's true? Did I miss some new bom analysis or something?
slavesnyder
Member
yes, that was funny.
so did he make a joke about xbox or is he as desperate as nelson was?
SaucyJack
Member
Yes, and it was one of his less asinine quotes. Both sold a heap at launch but XB had been out for fewer weeks,it was kinda relevant then.
Laydens comment implies a whole lot more - circa 17.5 million globally now and on target to exceed 20.13 by year end.
MrMatt555
Member
LOL
slavesnyder
Member
Could someone photoshop a cover?
Professor Layden and the Fastest Selling Console
Or he just implied "within its first year" since they have a whole year of sales data, right?
That's how I've taken it, at least.
SaucyJack
Member
Yes, which is the first part of what I was suggesting. The second part would only require them to keep being the fastest selling for an additional 6 weeks beyond its first year.
The typical Christmas season console buyer is a different breed than the rest of the year console buyer. The one thinking of buying an XB1 in November at $350 is very possibly someone who never even noticed Titanfall or the other deals at $450 back then.
~10 hours left to predict for November!
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
We know XBO costs more than PS4 to manufacture, and Sony was breaking even at $399. MS was making profit at $499. When they removed the Kinect that should've put them at break-even at $399.
I doubt they got a refinement on their manufacturing process faster than Sony (b/c XBO has ESRAM) and if they did then Sony would have as well. Now w/ the price at $350 just the system alone that's a $50 loss. And they had to pay Ubisoft for the AC games to bundle in so that's more or a loss for each bundle sold.
They might make up the difference in XBL subs and games but if the bundles have been selling to more casual people, I doubt they've been buying any games (you get so many already w/ the bundles) and some of them come w/ free XBL so that's a lost paid sub right there.
That's the reason they'll likely remove the games but keep the price at $350 after the holidays.
Cornbread78
Member
I just can;t wait to read MS's victory PR.... It will be posted EVERYWHERE!
Nothing, given he was talking WW.
I have no idea why I spent time doing this.
Because it's amazing, that's why.
Sorry to ask again - we know this how? I´d love to read up on this.
This I doubt too, but both should be able to buy parts cheaper now than they did a year ago.
loaf of bread
Member
I have no idea why I spent time doing this.
Glorious. Holy fuck
Welfare
Member
I can't wait to see how journalists will spin the articles as well.
Aaron Greenberg is going to be the worst Thursday.
I also expect ps4 doom articles.
Don't know where he is getting his info but the XB1 soc would cost more to manufacture than the ps4 just by virtue of the size. Plus I would imagine that Ps4 cost have come down more quickly since they are manufacturing and selling more than Xb1. So yes no one knows the actual cost of the machines but there has to be a reasing MS is predicting nearly a billion dollars less in revenue for the division for the quarter. The money is coming from somewhere this promotion isn't free because if it was at no cost to MS then it would be permanent.
Do you predict this deal to be permanent?
spatenfloot
Member
There were articles not long after launch talking about profitability. Sony said from the start they were profitable with the purchase of ps+ and a game.
Google ps4 profit margin and you'll find a ton of stuff.
Oh I have no doubt. Greenberg is going to be in FINE form come Thursday. I'm going to want to tear my hair out, no doubt.