BlackBuzzard
Banned
The race to the bottom that Microsoft is participating right now, is a race you don't want to win.
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
SDCowboy
Member
That depends. If they can sustain this price point, they may have found the perfect number that both raises their sales and takes from the PS4's. If Sony is going to stick with $400 for just the console, and the Bone stays somewhere in the $300's, I wouldn't be shocked if the PS4 doesn't win another NPD until there's a substantial price drop.
AstroNut325
Member
I honestly cannot imagine PS4 leading another NPD if Sony keeps the PS4 at $399 if the X1 is low $300s with multiple games.
CosmicQueso
Member
[360] 298k
[3DS] 500k
[PS3] 153k
[PS4] 910k
[WIU] 312k
[XB1] 1,091k
[PSV] 53k
[3DS] 500k
[PS3] 153k
[PS4] 910k
[WIU] 312k
[XB1] 1,091k
[PSV] 53k
You have to wonder.
The Xbox 1 ACU bundle @ $349, in less than a month of sales (Nov. 11th -> Dec. 4th), went from inexistent to 19th best selling rank on Amazon for the whole year.
It passed the PS4 Destiny SKU (and its 3 months of sales) by a pretty nice margin (that one sits at currently #30 for the year) and even though I know we can't make direct equivalence between Amazon ranking and numbers sold, Destiny did probably north of 500.000 units between the first two months (PS4's total is north of 800k between Sept. and Oct., including the single PS4 SKU). We also know that back in March the XB1 TF bundle did around 300k (it was arguably the vast majority of the XB1 sold that month I think), and in the yearly ranking it's located at Rank #96.
Take the following table with a HUGE grain of salt, but here we go, I'm going to commit the unthinkable and attribute sale #s to Amazon Rankings, for the year, and do a complete wild and most probably totally inaccurate guess on sale splits. The sales next to each SKU are including up to -October- for 2014, as adding anything "sales" from November would be just a complete guess work.
Note: It is likely by when you reach the top of the rankings of Amazon products the quantities sold behave like a logarithmic curve and probably climb faster than you'd expect, rather than being linear, so don't read "The ACU bundle sold millions!" from the following.
2014 Amazon Videogames Sales Rankings (as of December 12th 2014 - the numbers indicated are NPD based as of including October 2014)
#4: PS4 - ≈2.3m
#19: XB1 ACU bundle - ??
#30: PS4 Destiny bundle - ≈500k
#75: PS4 GTA V bundle - ??
#87: XB1 w Kinect - ≈400k
#96: XB1 Titanfall Bundle - ≈350k
PS: Again, those are -estimated splits- based on actual NPD numbers.
The reason we don't see the no Kinect SKU is probably because sales have been split between several SKUs .
As a reminder, the total # of PS4s sold in NA in 2014 is about 2.8m (including October 2014), while the total number of XB1s sold is about 1.8m (including October 2014).
EDIT: As notified below, it is there at rank #75. Placing it in the chart.
PPS: This is not to be used as a source of info. All the split numbers here are only for theorycrafting and only "based" on actual NPD data.
So ... long story short. Either MS is playing Coy to eventually "dazzle" the medias with huge numbers, -or- Amazon is about to lose its title of "Reliable way of predicting rankings based on their online sales".
SDCowboy
Member
It's an interresting turn. The PS4 made the Xbone get a significant price drop and now it looks like the Bone may suddenly force the PS4 to match. It's a win/win for consumers.
Chobel
Member
Don't you think that you're a little optimistic? 2 million current-gen consoles sold in November seems a bit much for 1 year old consoles, and if MS sold ~1.1M units I think we would have some PR from them by now.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
The bone is going to win the november NPD.
CosmicQueso
Member
Welp, we will find out in a couple days. Believe.
Aquamarine
Member
Never mind.
KillerMan91
Member
MS is not going to keep $329 price point and free games after holiday season. Actually even $349 price point was meant to be limited to holiday season but they are pretty much forced to keep it now because otherwise sales would fall off the cliff. I still think that PS4 is competitive with $349 Xbox One.
Welfare
Member
Well, they can either keep the One at $349, or follow up with their "Holiday only" statement and raise the price back, but with a bundled game.
Superman00
Liverpool01
People need to look at the big picture. Sony want to maximize the profit this year. It's the holiday season, they are gonna sell millions period. Sony shipped 4.9 millions PS3 in it second holiday(Oct-Dec 2007). They are definitely gonna ship more than that for the PS4. Putting them close to 20 millions console shipped worldwide by January 1st and definitely over 20 millions by March. Why take a profit hit when the PS4 is still selling a lot worldwide and they maybe lose 1 or 2 months in NPD. Especially when Japan will probably cover that deficit, let alone Europe, which is Sony biggest market.
Yeah people are acting like xb1 is blowing away ps4 now. The $399 ps4 GTA bundle ranked ahead of the $329 ACU xb1 the entire time both were available on black Friday. When the ps4 becomes less desirable is the moment Sony should drop the price. They shouldn't drop simply because xb1 dropped theirs.
Cornbread78
Member
Very few Wii-U's are shipped to stores and Sony is finally stuffign channes of PS4s since the sales boost. There were very few times during the PS3 era that we received large shipments of PS3s, but recently we've received several large shipments, including the new bundles shown here:
Walmart PS4 deal $399, 1 free game + $50 GC
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=947503&highlight=walmart
Hopefully, now that sales have picked up on WiiU's we will start getting them again soon.
gotstrangepowers
Banned
And, China PS4 shipments should start soon.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
nvm, post 17-18 with same question and answer lol
that's damn good
yeah, thanks
Gift card.
Aquamarine
Member
Never mind.
Welfare
Member
What does it mean?!
Aquamarine
Member
The first time I said something to CosmicQueso, but I thought it was a stupid comment and I deleted it.
The second time I said "Gift card," but I was beaten by a fraction of a second.
Final Verdict
Member
Here are the adjusted Amazon rankings:
Nov. 2014 (Amazon)
#2 X1 AC Bundle
#11 PS4 GTA Bundle
#31 PS4
#48 PS4 Destiny Bundle
#79 PS4 LBP bundle
#82 X1 AC + Kinect
#100 X1 Cod Bundle
Interesting.
It looks like both bundles sold well, but I'm thinking the difference between 2nd and 11th is significant, because on the yearly rankings, the two are #19, and #75 respectively.
Nov. 2014 (Amazon)
#2 X1 AC Bundle
#11 PS4 GTA Bundle
#31 PS4
#48 PS4 Destiny Bundle
#79 PS4 LBP bundle
#82 X1 AC + Kinect
#100 X1 Cod Bundle
Interesting.
It looks like both bundles sold well, but I'm thinking the difference between 2nd and 11th is significant, because on the yearly rankings, the two are #19, and #75 respectively.
Thanks!May or may not be relevant, but this post in the PAL thread from Mpl90 suggests 350K for XB1 and PS4 combined in the last 2 weeks of November (UK).
A rough US:UK multiplier of 5X would give 1750K for two weeks?
- granted, there has been a lot of good bundles in the UK, but even accounting for VAT US prices still seem to be offering the better deal.
UK bundles were really insane for both consoles. Instead, in US we had big deals for Xbox One and "just" good ones for PS4. The situation's been quite different.
anexanhume
Member
If AC bundle went up for pre-order in October, those would count there.
Based on the NPD comparisons in the other post, I'm guessing yearly rankings are actually more bunched than the monthly ones (on average). The question is whether all those added together come anywhere near #2 on the list.
Even so I doubt that typical, historical X5 was that much different. And the US deals for XB1 were still insane, official price cut then further price cuts.
That ignores the first 2 weeks with Halo, AC, COD ect as well.
theprodigy
Member
on the other hand, Black Friday is the real thing here, as opposed to the UK which only managed about a 2x increase over the previous week
Yeah, I'm thinking that XBox will be $350 w/ no games included for a while. I expect PS4 and XB1 to sell fair fairly evenly at those prices. Of course XB1 has a big drought coming up while PS4 has several big titles, so a lot will depend on how those are received.
Pachter must be wrong on this. 600k would be pretty disappointing for PS4.
Welfare
Member
How much is the BF increase from the previous week? I would assume the Week over week increase would only be close to 2x if the numbers before BF were already good.
slavesnyder
Member
If Xbox dares to move the price back up it will suffer...
Now that you make me think about it, what are MS titles for Xbox One's first half next year?
Ori, Evolve marketing deal (I think?), TW3 marketing deal, Screamride, and State of Decay.
Might be missing some stuff.
They will have to this deal right now can't be profitable.
Fable I think.
Welfare
Member
They gave up being profitable the moment they came up with these crazy bundles and deals.
slavesnyder
Member
if they eat the losses and only look for market share (and think they make the money from subscriptions) they might deal with it...
Yes but they did to "win" something and gain marketshare in the busiest season they can't keep selling console at a loss like this. Unless they like to bleed money.
They are also setting a bad precedent where people might start expecting such deals.
Like he was ever wrong with anything...
Ash Sparrow
Banned
I think maybe MS waited to brag on NPD, because they wanted the fact they won to be all we talked about till DEC NPD. If they had bragged earlier the effect would have been muted by Sony dropping its bombs at PlayStation Experience. Now that the event is behind us I think we'll hear them make note if they did win. I'm betting on PR soon.
Mikey Jr.
Member
After Pachter said that XB1 would beat PS4 handily during Destiny release, I don't trust him anymore.
I mean, it was common sense PS4 beat X1. Not only did he say X1 beat PS4, but it did by a large amount. I'd honesty rather use ******** or whatever.
Yeah I think when PS4 will have its price drop to say $350 MS will have a huge problem on their hands as I think they diminished the value of the console with those crazy deals. It went from to $500 to $330 with 2 new games in less than a year for gods sake.
Frag Waffles
Member
Price raises are dangerous. You're gonna have a tough time convincing someone to buy something that had been anywhere from $50-$70 cheaper for months prior. I personally can't see MS putting the price back to $400. Seems to me the "limited time deal" is more trying to get people to buy sooner rather than later, with no intentions to raise the price, trying to secure a holiday win.
While I do see the XB1 staying at $350 I can't see it being offered with multiple games for the rest of it's life. I suspect after this holiday period. They'll just sell the console as is for $350.
Do you think 750k would be a little low for the One. To only beat the PS4 by 150k units doesn't seem like much.