anexanhume
Member
I kind of expected Unity to suffer. It's current-gen only, had a bad launch and it has bundled copies eating away at its chart position. Not that that would knock it out of the top 10.
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I kind of expected Unity to suffer. It's current-gen only, had a bad launch and it has bundled copies eating away at its chart position. Not that that would knock it out of the top 10.
Aquamarine
Member
The Assassin's Creed brand is huge, though.
For example, Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag sold 1.2 million units in November 2013 despite launching in October 2013 for last-gen consoles AND being down -44% (Oct + Nov) from Assassin's Creed 3.
This year, Assassin's Creed launches in November, so launch sales aren't split between October and November like the past few years. That helps compensate for natural franchise decline + a bad launch.
anexanhume
Member
Yeah, I understand. The PS4 version hit #37 on Amazon's charts. The XB1 wasn't in the top 100. PS4 DA:I (non-deluxe) was #98. So you've got non deluxe and deluxe versions of the other 3 consoles to add in there. Not sure how that would stack up to #37 plus XB1 sales.
Cornbread78
Member
It's tough to say from what I saw at retail.
There were two extremes in my store.
- CoD:AW on XB1 & 360 sold more than PS3/4 by more than 2:1, (XB1,PS4,360,PS3)
- GTAV sold about 4:1 in favor of PS4 over XB1.
Also, based on our store don't expect Sunset Overdrive to be anywhere near that list. We still have launch copies on shelves..
slavesnyder
Member
I disagree. Being number 2 on the last market on planet earth you could have won, the home turf of your company hurts psychological and does not help securing 3rd party exclusive content. In other words: moneyhats get more expensive. And i presume that is an important part of the strategy. Even worse: it makes it easier for poor sony to get exclusives.
Aquamarine
Member
There is no material difference between the following two scenarios:
900K XB1
925K PS4
925K XB1
900K PS4
If third-party games are selling well on both platforms, what does it matter to Microsoft if the PS4 beats Xbox One this month? If Microsoft has an internal sales goal---let's say it's 900K---and they surpass that, then they're ALREADY achieving market penetration and expanding awareness of the Xbox brand. They don't need the "Xbox One sold the most consoles!" PR line.
You can achieve market penetration while still selling less than your competitor. As we have seen last-gen, consoles can peacefully co-exist with healthy ecosystems.
And, just because the PS4 may be "winning" doesn't mean that Microsoft is at a disadvantage in terms of third-party relations. The PS3 did just fine with third-parties despite selling less than the Xbox 360 for years and years. The only "traction" that the Xbox One would get from beating the PS4 for one month is the reactions to the PR statement. It wouldn't make a difference in Xbox One adoption.
Oh definitely Aqua (your scenario is a MS nightmare from my point of view though, with just 25K difference either way btw), one month is just one month.
But you are not factoring in the Gaming Media (and Media in general like Bloomberg & co) which would eat up -any- win and spin it up something fierce, which is imo exactly what MS is hoping to achieve.
There's a sales target.
And then there's a PR target.
My opinion, obviously
But you are not factoring in the Gaming Media (and Media in general like Bloomberg & co) which would eat up -any- win and spin it up something fierce, which is imo exactly what MS is hoping to achieve.
There's a sales target.
And then there's a PR target.
My opinion, obviously
theprodigy
Member
you have got to learn to take Amazon with a grain of salt
slavesnyder
Member
I think differently, but thank you for this insight. It's worthy.
The salt is real as fuck with some people against the Wii.
Xbox One will do well in the US over the holidays but if they really don't keep the price drop I wonder if it'll show any good signs, come January.
CosmicQueso
Member
But, it's true. No console had the huge growth nor the huge decline of the Wii.
It's remarkable for just how insane the whole thing was.
Boombloxer
Member
Welfare
Member
I'm was mad at the Wii because I couldn't nab one when Smash came out. Had to wait for it.
Aquamarine
Member
I remember paying $150 over the asking price on eBay just so I could get a Wii at launch.
The hype surrounding it in 2006-2007 was insane.
Ash Sparrow
Banned
Totally agree. Great post
It was also amazing that those sales translated into three peripherals for Nintendo's competitors: The Move, Kinect, and Kinect 2.0 ... all trying to capture those magical waggle sales.
The thing was sold out for like four years. Everybody wanted a piece of it, they just didn't want to go through Nintendo to get it.
Just makes it all the sadder how Nintendo completely dropped the ball with the WiiU.
Aquamarine
Member
January 2013 was shocking in many ways.
It's 2:17 PM in Redmond.
Give it until the end of the business day. If there's still nothing...then MS is waiting for NPD.
DarthWalden
Banned
I pulled an all nighters in front of best buy to secure one after playing it at my buddies house. Even though in the end it became a disappointment that was an exciting time to be a gamer. Had some fun nights with freinds with that thing when it was first released.
Welfare
Member
The wait is real.
Nintendo caputred everyone's imagination with the Wii. And the first two years have been insane...heck, let's extend it to December 2009 as well. How can you forget almost 3,8 millions sold.
Looking back at Wii and DS numbers makes me wonder if there could be something like those in the "traditional" space again and how it could be. And I also fear the answer for the first question is "No. We won't ever see that again"
This 100%. I don't see why it is so hard for so many to grasp this concept. A non-marketshare-leader can even be the most successful financially (c.f. Apple in laptops and phone markets).
DustyVonEric
Member
You'd think that, but I'm not so sure .
According to Michael Pachter (and Phil Spencer), the goal for MS is to come in first place. In fact, Pach said it was Sony that doesn't really care about first or second place as long as they keep selling well.
Aquamarine
Member
1) Really? You're paraphrasing Pachter? There are GAFfers on this board who provide more intelligent and insightful commentary, and Pachter isn't always on the mark.
2) This is what Phil Spencer said about "winning":
What executive doesn't want his product to win? Winning makes you feel good inside because it's a sort of internal validation.
But that doesn't mean it's necessary as an internal goal for Microsoft's C&GH division to outperform the PS4 or else they've "lost" or "failed" or they are "in trouble." Quite the opposite.
Thank you. I am just leaving work, and between the horrible road conditions, and the shoveling, i don't know when I'll be back on here. I miss your My Little Pony avatar. It made you much easier to pick out.
Aquamarine
Member
That...that wasn't a voluntary choice I made...
CosmicQueso
Member
So many resources dedicated to chasing motion controls... if those same resources were dedicated to better core games I wonder how much bigger the industry would be today.
Maybe it wouldn't have mattered.
I was also young at the time, but I find it hard to properly explain the aura around it. It blew everyones minds and really showed how big the market for 'back to basics' games were. It did ruin online discussions with graphics vs gameplay though
theprodigy
Member
Great, you found the link! It was Wednesday, then, and not Tuesday. With the PRs that come out pre-NPD (e.g. from Nintendo, when they have no official NPD PR), maybe the program is still going, then?
Wii's beginning was showing promising signs for a wide amount of genres, even "core" properties. Trauma Center, Red Steel, Sonic and the Secret Rings, Sonic Unleashed, Star Wars: The Force Unleashed, PES 2008, No More Heroes, etc.etc. Not Madden, though.
There have been many titles with at least good sales, especially when compared with other SKUs. Unfortunately, though, 3rd parties couldn't catch the lighting as fast as they should have due to big investments on PS360, continued developing core titles on there while giving to Wii mostly C/D-teams efforts, which made the most dedicated userbase start going away. That and Nintendo having a down period, between second half of 2008 and 2009, especially in terms of games for the "hardcore" audience. Which is something that didn't show immediate effects (end of 2008 saw also decent sales for COD!), but more in 2009.
There have been many titles with at least good sales, especially when compared with other SKUs. Unfortunately, though, 3rd parties couldn't catch the lighting as fast as they should have due to big investments on PS360, continued developing core titles on there while giving to Wii mostly C/D-teams efforts, which made the most dedicated userbase start going away. That and Nintendo having a down period, between second half of 2008 and 2009, especially in terms of games for the "hardcore" audience. Which is something that didn't show immediate effects (end of 2008 saw also decent sales for COD!), but more in 2009.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Amazon only accounts for 6% of all retail if that one post listing percentages is correct, and I'm willing to believe it was.
Most of us core gamers who liked the Wii tolerated motion controls but loved the pointer controls. Many core game types played better with pointer controls. Still sad that so many decided to chase the Wii Sports motion-control bandwagon instead of doing what the system could do really well with pointer controls. Wii Play had that Duck Hunt game that could have insane levels of skill shown with it, and RE4 was so smooth with the pointer. Was good to play Dead Rising Wii just to have that engine be used again, even if the game itself was a bit of a dud.
RE 4 Wii is amazing. The game gained a new life.
Fair enough. However, MS have said themselves that XB1 is performing incredibly well. So presumably it is in line with their internal projections? Just that PS4 is doing better than they anticipated. In hat case, why would they feel the need to have such dramatic offers specifically in the US and specifically during the exact periods covering november and December NPD? Those actions suggest strongly that they want to beat Sony and are willing to take a financial hit to do so.
DustyVonEric
Member
Here's a podcast interview with podcast interview with Pachter where he states at 20:50 that he asked Sony "Do you really care if you sell 125 million and they (MS) sells 130 million?" and Sony said no, but when he asked MS the same question, they told him they care about first place and want to win.
Now I'll admit that I'm one of those lolPach predictions people, but I don't think the guy is a blatant liar. If he says he spoke with Sony and MS, and those are the answers they gave him, I tend to believe that. People are free to feel differently though.
From an outsider looking in, it makes sense that MS would simply be happy to make a lot of money regardless of winning. But I'm not in those Redmond meetings. I don't know what the true endgame is. Is it to keep Xbox Live relevant "no matter the cost" for future plans? Beats me. It just seems to me that this holiday season must be costing MS a crazy ton of money for the ridiculously good pricing and deals they're offering.
That, added to Pach's comments, plus Phil's interview here, the next paragraph of your excerpt stating very plainly he wants to "win", seems like MS won't settle for second place.
I'm speculating that MS wants to be #1 in people's mind for whatever they have planned after Xbox One. And they're going to buy their way back in no matter the price. Maybe it's as simple as they'll make the money back on games and Live subs long-term. But short-term, MS is going all out and not settling for respectable sales.
michaelius
Banned
Even super succesfull game division would result in pocket change profits for Microsoft as corporation.
When you look at where they do money it's hard to find a reason to keep xbox brand alive other than not wanting to admit defeat.
When you look at where they do money it's hard to find a reason to keep xbox brand alive other than not wanting to admit defeat.
The other side of this coin has been repeated often enough already, but it's true for Sony, too. They don't really pay that much attention to whether or not they sell more than Xbox. They have their own projections, and when the sales drop enough to warrant a price drop, that is when Sony will pull the trigger.
It's "attach rate". And it depends (someone more knowledgeable, pls, correct if wrong).
In NPD, if it is an "official bundle", meaning the game has been put inside the box on production line, the game is not counted. If it is a store bundle, i.e. a normal physical game that is bundled by the retailer to sweeten the deal, it is counted in NPD.
Regardless, in PR the platform owner may do what they want, and most likely they do calculate all games ending up in the hands of consumers.
It depends: if the same consumer has both consoles, MS must persuade that person to buy the game for Xbox instead of PS. MS wants to sell their console as the primary gaming platform, and being consistently outsold could be seen as an indicator of the opposite.
Angelus Errare
Banned
Xbox One is providing fun for everyone this holiday season with exclusive blockbuster games like "Halo: The Master Chief Collection" (which generated more than $200 million worldwide in the first 24-hours of its release), "Forza Horizon 2," and "Sunset Overdrive."
Xbox One will also continue to offer consumers great value throughout the holiday season with a variety of special offers and pricing plans. A $50-off pricing promotion on select Xbox One consoles and three holiday bundles that include everything your family will need to experience all Xbox One has to offer are available now at participating retailers through Jan. 5, while supplies last.**
It's never been a better time to own an Xbox One, and consumers agree November marked the Xbox One as the top-selling console in the U.S selling more than 825,000 units across North America. We at Microsoft are excited to see gamers reacting to the great proposal that Xbox One offers and will continue to provide the best value for our customers. (Source: NPD Group, November 2014).
Xbox One will also continue to offer consumers great value throughout the holiday season with a variety of special offers and pricing plans. A $50-off pricing promotion on select Xbox One consoles and three holiday bundles that include everything your family will need to experience all Xbox One has to offer are available now at participating retailers through Jan. 5, while supplies last.**
It's never been a better time to own an Xbox One, and consumers agree November marked the Xbox One as the top-selling console in the U.S selling more than 825,000 units across North America. We at Microsoft are excited to see gamers reacting to the great proposal that Xbox One offers and will continue to provide the best value for our customers. (Source: NPD Group, November 2014).
l imagine their statement will read something like this tomorrow.
For a second I was about to ask if you were Phil Spencer or Aaron Greenberg lol.
Syphon Filter
Member
I'm like the only one who thinks PS4 wins Nov.
CosmicQueso
Member
And if jvm was around he would lovingly correct "attach rate" to "tie ratio". =)
"Attach rate" is more applied to things like the PS Camera (ie the PS Camera attach rate to Hardware is XX%). Anyways.
And no, bundled SW is not included in the tie ratio (as the software sale is not included in the software data feed).
Maybe it shouldn't be this way, but it is what it is.
Yeah, I don't get why that makes people so upset. It literally was a fad. And that's okay. It's a fad that made billions. Good.
RyanPierre
Member
They would put the last paragraph as the first paragraph to highlight the win. Otherwise, it reads like Microsoft PR to me, so kudos. Should we have a PR prediction spin-off thread?
I think the My Little Pony avatar will stick for a long time
I aso think it was hella cute.
Why not go for a happy intermediary, like .. a proud unicorn?
Or a proud Unicron if you'd rather
45mn left for office hours in Redmond... There might be a chance still, but not much of one for today imo.