-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Triggerhappytel
Member
It completely depends on the tone of their press release. I'm sure if they've won they'll shout about it, but if they discuss sales generally and don't talk about winning NPD or if they say the "Xbox brand" sold the most then they're probably pre-empting the bad news that the PS4 outsold the Xbone.
If they don't make a press release until after the results I wouldn't be surprised if they have won, as these early releases strike me as exclusively trying to pre-empt the bad news.
When does MS usually put out a pre-NPD statement if they do one? Are we expecting one today?
Nightengale
Member
It's clear from their earlier PR that their aim is to have as close as possible to a 10 million sold-through.
Ultimately, they can only sell what they've produced/shipped. Like, based on anecdotal Black Friday threads, they could've afforded more stock to some Targets, but they didn't, or perhaps they simply couldn't have more ready for that day. ( or weren't ready to eat too much loss )
Naw, a win is a win. One can definitely argue MS might have exhausted future sales with with their aggressive Black Friday specials. MS put so much effort into winning Black Friday they could have a smaller bump in December. We won't know the answer to this question until December 2014 NPD.
Aquamarine
Member
They have traditionally released a Black Friday PR based on their internal sales tracking.
This year they didn't release anything around Black Friday outside of a vague "sales are incredible, thank you fans" Twitter reply...and it remains to be seen if they'll release anything pre-NPD.
Going to copy/paste what I said in one of my previous posts:
November is such a big month for sales that a small difference would still be good. If MS didn't do the deals then I could have seen the PS4 beating the Xbox One by more than 300K.
Their move has...
*Pushed many people who were planning to stick to last gen for another year or so into this new gen (via Xbox One).
*Caused current PS4 owners to get an Xbox One (with a good number originally planning not to get one so soon).
*Caused people to get sucked in Xbox Live for some more years.
*Caused future new IP Xbox One exclusives to have a better chance at selling well in comparison to if MS didn't make these Holiday Xbox One deals/bundles; thus causing those games to have a better shot at having sequels in the future and becoming new franchises.
There's many good things about MS doing this (especially at this time). The amount they beat the PS4 by doesn't matter much (that is, if they did). I also bet that MS will push ads and PR statements stating that the Xbox One is the top selling console this Holiday season which will thus make it seem to some people as if the system is the hotter item (that is again, if XB1 won November NPD). MS could make those statements via simply beating the PS4 by less than 1,000.
Listen, I don't really know you
And I don't think I want to
But I think I can fake it if you can
And let's agree there's no need
No more talk of money
Let's just keep pretending to be friends
I get carried away
Carried away from you
And I'm hoping and I'm praying
Cause I'm sorry, sorry about that
Sorry about the things that I said
Always let it get to my head
CosmicQueso
Member
But not a "we're #1" statement... they can say "we sold X" or "we shipped Y" sure.
All of the tracking stuff I've seen made me think this month will be close. I'm betting they're waiting like the rest of us to see what happened before going too crazy. Who knows.
Once that first report hits though... look out.
I can already see Greenberg's smug face filling up my screen.
CosmicQueso
Member
The real tragedy is that if the win is by around 100k, that's still makes up less than 10% of the current gap, but it'll still cause chaos.
Looking forward to the "Xbox is catching up!" and "competition" and "sony better get its crap together" and "how will Sony respond" and "Doom" and all the other goofy threads that will flow like water.
$20 says someone on twitter throws it out there early. No way a data point that big stays hidden for long at all this month.
Looking forward to the "Xbox is catching up!" and "competition" and "sony better get its crap together" and "how will Sony respond" and "Doom" and all the other goofy threads that will flow like water.
$20 says someone on twitter throws it out there early. No way a data point that big stays hidden for long at all this month.
Aquamarine
Member
It will be interesting to read the NPD thread if no numbers leak for a while. GAF will go crazy trying to figure out what the PS4 <-> Xbox One difference is, haha.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
What's the closest NPD we've ever had?
Yeah if you look past the console wars for a second, it really comes down to increasing the install base. Bottom line is that Microsoft sold consoles with those deals that would not have sold otherwise and that is a victory in and of its self. The more it exceeds Sony's numbers, regardless of how close they are to each other, the better for them. If they are below slightly or match them it's good because they managed to compete with a console that is selling like crazy. Regardless of what happens Microsoft put their hat in the ring and gave it their all and I can't see them not having some sort of victory in this NPD.
And that's why an Xbox One win in November would be good for MS no matter the gap. MS could make the Xbox One appear to be doing better than it actually is since November is such a huge month; Them doing that will push even more people to buy an Xbox One in the future.
Aquamarine
Member
In February 2014, PS4 and XB1 were only 11K off.
CosmicQueso
Member
Interesting question.
April 2008, 360 beat PS3 by <1,000 units.
And what Aqua said. Aqua, is that the Panama Jack logo as your avatar?
John Bender
Banned
Nope! My comment has nothing to do with Abdiel's post.
The Xbox One simply won November NPD. There is absolutely no doubt, imho.
Final Verdict
Member
Ha Ha, yeah, that is going to be entertaining to watch.
Looking forward hopefully to some vague charts broad statements.....
I'm really hoping that MS gives some ballpark numbers though like "more than a million, or almost a million", or whatever.
Aquamarine
Member
It's not what Panama Jack is...it's what Panama Jack represents....know what I'm sayin'?
orthodoxy1095
Banned
Wow, alright those are very close numbers. Interesting!
This month was a major disappointment Both consoles below 200k with GTA IV.
Aquamarine
Member
Hopefully at random, erratic intervals.
theprodigy
Member
I'm bored, full top 10 chart position guessing time:
1. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC) (first three will be close, also I think including bundles XB1>PS4 here)
2. Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
3. Far Cry 4 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC)
4. Assassin's Creed Unity (PS4, XB1) (not sure about this at all lol)
5. Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
6. Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS) (will US follow Japan or Europe in this little battle? stay tuned)
7. Super Smash Bros. (Wii U, 3DS) (yes they are combined, which should help its position)
8. Madden NFL 15 (PS4, 360, PS3, XB1)
9. NBA 2K15 (360, PS4, XB1, PS3, PC)
10. Skylanders: Trap Team (360, Wii, Wii U, PS3, Xbox One, PS4, 3DS, mobile) (fuck it, might as well put down something)
not exactly sure on the Nintendo trio's spots lol
oh yeah, the "Official April 2008 NPD thread of massive disappointment if you're not Nintendo"
1. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC) (first three will be close, also I think including bundles XB1>PS4 here)
2. Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
3. Far Cry 4 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC)
4. Assassin's Creed Unity (PS4, XB1) (not sure about this at all lol)
5. Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
6. Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS) (will US follow Japan or Europe in this little battle? stay tuned)
7. Super Smash Bros. (Wii U, 3DS) (yes they are combined, which should help its position)
8. Madden NFL 15 (PS4, 360, PS3, XB1)
9. NBA 2K15 (360, PS4, XB1, PS3, PC)
10. Skylanders: Trap Team (360, Wii, Wii U, PS3, Xbox One, PS4, 3DS, mobile) (fuck it, might as well put down something)
not exactly sure on the Nintendo trio's spots lol
oh yeah, the "Official April 2008 NPD thread of massive disappointment if you're not Nintendo"
Graphics Horse
Member
Welfare
Member
Like the first post in the NPD thread is a leak, then we go thousands of posts and then bam! Another one. Thousands more and bam! Another.
Maybe someone will leak through Twitter or a random youtube video that no one will ever find.
King Beyond the wall
Member
How can there be 'absolutely no doubt' that MS won when the evidence we have indicates that it was close run thing? This may be a semantic issue but you see my point lol
FF Seraphim
Member
But that totally messes up my own chaotic life style! It needs more nonrandom but greater erraticness!
plus numbers, numbers are good too
CosmicQueso
Member
Crazy what we consider "disasters" today compared to recent years, isn't it? Right now, the big 2 time aligned installed base is almost 75% ahead of the last gen, and people still freak out and think that one month of poor sales means the whole thing is doomed.
Want to know doom? 2012. Software down almost 25%, Hardware sales down almost 30%, all because all 3 platform holders waited a year too long to release new boxes.
Aquamarine
Member
I'm going with:
1) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
2) Grand Theft Auto V
3) Super Smash Bros.
4) Assassin's Creed Unity
5) Far Cry 4
6) Madden NFL 15
7) Pokemon Sapphire
8) Pokemon Ruby
9) NBA 2K15
10) Skylanders: Trap Team
Its possible that we don't had Black Friday MS press release because internal tracking numbers showed a loss or a tiny win, so they can't brag reliably victory.
The answers will come tomorrow (or later).
Well, I have a feeling that both consoles are more front loaded. Sure the numbers are better than the beginning of last gen because of the very strong launch sales, but I still have doubts about the future.
I'm very curious about holiday sales, will give a better idea of the strength they have.
The answers will come tomorrow (or later).
Well, I have a feeling that both consoles are more front loaded. Sure the numbers are better than the beginning of last gen because of the very strong launch sales, but I still have doubts about the future.
I'm very curious about holiday sales, will give a better idea of the strength they have.
No Halo MCC?
John Bender
Banned
I see what you mean.
But there is no doubt, imo.
Just hearing stuff on forums, news/informations on social media, here on Neogaf etc. -> Xbox One won.
But hey, tomorrow is the day.
theprodigy
Member
ehhh last gen (well at least PS360) got off to a horrible start, even Xbox/Gamecube would be tracking ahead of it
Welfare
Member
Hmm
1. Call of Duty AW (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC)
2. Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3)
3. Assassins Creed Unity (PS4, XB1)
4. Far Cry 4 (PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC)
5. Super Smash Bros. (Wii U, 3DS)
6. Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS)
7. Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
8. NBA 2K15 (PS4, 360, XB1, PS3, PC)
9. Skylanders Trap Team
10. Halo MCC
John Bender
Banned
What?
April 2008
Welfare
Member
XB1 version would be lower due to the bundles. Halo is only on XB1 while NBA is on PS4, XB1, 360, and PS3.
Final Verdict
Member
With the bundles counted, this could happen, but they don't count those, so PS4 will probably win as it has a larger install base.
I'm thinking he is probably right about PS4,360,XB1,PS3.
Thought the gap between PS4-360-X1 will likely be marginal either way.
pharmboy044
Member
Aaron Greenberg has no problem giving out PS4 software numbers so I'm pretty sure he'll give the hardware numbers out if MS "wins" this month.
Aquamarine
Member
In my opinion it will be very close. Like...MCC might be <25K away from beating Skylanders.
It's definitely a possibility for Halo MCC to chart, but I'm going with the 7-platform Skylanders over the Xbox One exclusive.
John Bender
Banned
It's pretty interesting to see if they're front loaded tbh. i think this gen will show large growth in the EMEA markets. Sony recently shared their mid-term strategy and their internal outlook sees a lot of growth in middle eastern markets, claims germany is transitioning to consoles etc.
yeah, but a $100 loss on the console requires 9(?) third party game sale license fees? Attach rate is usually less than that.
