theprodigy
Member
oh yeah, MCC (hey, at least I remembered to put Far Cry 4 in at the last minute 
)
how did that one do in UK again?
)how did that one do in UK again?
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I see that reasoning but destiny unbundled sold better on the xb1 than the ps4. So couldn't we say that shooters sell better on Xbox consoles in the US. And if the xb1 does sell more consoles, chances are they would mostly be av bundles rather than the COd bundle
So of course this is nothing concrete but if you couple shooters selling better on this region with more xbox's sold, it isn't unreasonable
I happen to disagree with Aqua (respectfully) on that one.
The XB1 was going to sell boat loads in November (and December) regardless, if only because of the Holiday period, and between the Halo MCC release, the well reviewed exclusives FH2/ SO and earlier Titanfall titles, and the $50 price cut on top of it.
They had therefore no need to push it the extra mile with the 2 free games (and an additional $20 off, and a $50 gift card at Target for BF) which brought their margins to their knees most probably. A Price cut -or- the 2 free games would have been a fairly normal move for the period to push back. But both?
The only reason they would have had to have been as agressive as they have been for the entire month (and continuing in December) is to regain mind share and beat the PS4 for the month, to create traction, imho.
Skylanders sells that much on november? Or you are not expecting too much for Halo MCC launch ?
Wasn't Destiny a free pack-in for Xbox in september?
Aquamarine
Member
And, Call of Duty: Ghosts sold more on Xbox One than on PS4 in the 2013 Holiday season.
January 2013 for Wii U?
February 2007 for PS3 (i.e. the start of the GBA > PS3 GIFs)?
sonycowboy mentioned a trial program many years ago where for extra cost, you could get a top-level preview of the results on Tuesday designed for the major publishers/console makers. No idea if that continued past the trial phase, though.
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Nov-2014
1. XB1 - 941K
2. PS4 - 864K
3. 3DS - 447K
4. WIU - 332K
5. 360 - 233K
6. PS3 - 144K
?
point is, to make back that $100 through license fees, the customer must purchase more than 9 full priced third party games. Attach rate is the average number of games per console sold. Console attach rates are almost always < 9.
Wildarmsjecht
Member
Man this thread...tomorrow is going to be a big day for topic discussion and I'm gonna be working...GAF, stay alive for me please!
I'm not changing my numbers.
I'm not changing my numbers.
theprodigy
Member
just like the PS4 Destiny bundles made XB1>PS4, the XB1 CoD bundles will probably make PS4>XB1.....although I suppose that since the AC:Unity bundle was the main one, this is possible (but not at all likely)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=93586681&postcount=4861
7. Skylanders: Swap Force (WII, 360, PS3, NWU, 3DS, XBO, PS4) - >0.5 million units
admittedly from this I might be underestimating Madden a bit, but hey
psn
Member
The install base wasn't much apart back then.
And destiny is a bad example. If you give away free games and count them in npd it will distort the image. And afaik destiny has more players on ps4 than on xb1.
Front loaded? Not the PS4 I am sure. Nearly all the big studios still need to release their games and the first price drop has yet to come.
Aquamarine
Member
I'm expecting like 575K-590K from Halo MCC in November.
Not really. For one week you could choose a free game with your Xbox. We'd have to assume that a ton of consoles were sold for that week( not really the case) and that every buyer chose Destiny as their free game
KillerMan91
Member
Still remember this lol. Damn Wii was out of this world during early last gen.
I'm expecting more, maybe I'm exaggerating.
For have an idea, you know how much Halo CE Anniversary sold on launch?
I've read that thread again, recently...what a crazy ride, so many meltdowns. Incredible. :lol
You need to factor in Live subscription fees though.
Aquamarine
Member
Halo CE Anniversary sold 501K opening month (November 2011). That's one of the reasons why I'm expecting Halo MCC to sell 575K-590K.
psn
Member
Live isn't free for Microsoft. Only a smaller part of it is profit for them I think.
John Bender
Banned
lmao
FunkyPajamas
Member
It's four games vs one though (+ multiplayer, + 60fps, etc). I'm not saying sales are going to be 4:1 (lol), but isn't <600k a bit conservative?
Makes sense. I thought Anniversary sold better.
Devilgunman
Member
How fast the fad died down was also out of this world.
Aquamarine
Member
Yeah, but Xbox One 2014 isn't at Xbox 360 2011 levels.
The increased value of the 4 games is offset by the Xbox One's comparatively weaker position in the USA market.
Sometimes I read these old NPD threads just for fun.
360 is CallADuty city. Dont be surprised if its top dawg.
psn
Member
Feel free to give us the numbers. Not easy to include them and not right to ignore them but it's okay for an estimation I think.
Welfare
Member
I think leaderboard numbers have the 360 version way behind the One version. Now that might be a WW number, I think it might say something about last gens performance in terms of software.
FunkyPajamas
Member
That makes sense, thanks.
anexanhume
Member
The original dragon age charted. Would be pretty disappointing if this one didn't.
Aquamarine
Member
The problem is there are just so many blockbuster games this month.
With Call of Duty, GTA V, Far Cry 4, Assassin's Creed Unity, Assassin's Creed Rogue, Pokemon Alpha Sapphire, Pokemon Alpha Ruby, Super Smash Bros., and Halo MCC all releasing in the same month, as well as massive sales from reliable franchises like Madden NFL 15, FIFA 15, WWE 2K15, Skylanders: Trap Team, and Destiny, it's hard to imagine Dragon Age: Inquisition fitting in there.
Just a consequence of the month it's releasing in. I'm sure Dragon Age: Inquisition will perform to EA's expectations (at least Dragon Age Origins levels...maybe even at Dragon Age II levels).
Some people buy only used games or play only F2P. I expect that attitude to be more common among buyers of $329 consoles than among those who are ready to pay $399.
Welfare
Member
Did DA even get that much advertising here? I saw commercials for every game you listed there except for DA, or if I did, it was only once.
Patapwn
Member
Wow, my prediction is almost identical to the aggregate. I must be a psychic, would you like your palm read?
JeffG
Member
Really? and what do you base your expectations on?
The millions of copies of games being sold currently?
theprodigy
Member
CosmicQueso
Member
Current tie ratios are over 3 1/4 phys, maybe another couple digital, plus the PS+ or GWG... trying to figure out complete tie ratios is currently impossible due to the lack of digital data.
What point are you even arguing?
Whoa. Never knew about that. That's nuts.
What point are you even arguing?
Whoa. Never knew about that. That's nuts.
TheBanditKing
Member
This month could go either way, I think Sony will be close but my gut says MS beat them by a small margin. Really want to know Wii U number with Smash out.
lol, thanks for the aggregate.
Someone was suggesting upstream that most of the predictions were leaning towards PS4 so an Xbox One win in Nov will have most meltdowns when it's actually in line with most of GAF's prediction #s.
Gotta keep spinning that I guess.
No, I expect that those at the lower end of the hardware demand curve are also at the lower end of the software demand curve.
I don't have any hard facts to back this up though, so feel free to disagree with me.
Super_Cobra
Member
I predicted the ps4 was going to win November. I still stand by it but now I think the xbone will give the ps4 a run for its money.
FF Seraphim
Member
You know what, I am actually interested in see how CoD: AW does on the platforms. I am assuming it will do the best on the X360 but it would be surprising to see if it sells more the PS4 than the XB1
I would wager that it does better on ps4 and xb1 this month and then 360 lead for the months after. that seems to be the pattern for most games released this year. its basically that the new gen customers are the more core gamers that purchase on release.