-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
(NPD Estimate) Next Gen Consoles Break 3M in December (Wii > 360??)
- Thread starter Elios83
- Start date
sonycowboy
Member
farnham said:
You're going to start a list war. But, the next 3 months+ have a large number of anticipated PS3 titles, IMO. Assuming they actually get released accoroing to the current released dates.
Motorstorm, LAIR, Heavenly Sword, VF5, Oblivion, Rainbow Six, GRAW 2, Mercenaries 2, & Assassin's Creed
+ some library support in
NBA Street, MOH: Airborne, Splinter Cell, FEAR, Armored Core 4, Virtua Tennis.
Spider_Jerusalem
Member
I think this has already been delayed...sonycowboy said:
Haunted
Member
cartoon_soldier
Member
MS already shipped 10.4 m consoles plus their quarterly report for months of Oct-Nov-Dec should have the same/similar number.
NPD now is useless. Quarterly numbers from company financials are better.
NPD now is useless. Quarterly numbers from company financials are better.
The Innocent X
Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Run, run while you still can!
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
cartoon_soldier said:
:lol :lol :lol
cartoon_soldier
Member
sonycowboy said:
Jan, Feb, March?
Live in your world, play in your world.
In my world the PS3 is not getting all those games in the next 3 months.
sonycowboy
Member
cartoon_soldier said:
As I stated, 3+ months (from today), I was basically going through the end of April. Again, some dates are placeholders as I alluded to.
In any case, my point was merely that there's more than a decent number of titles coming out in the near future that is better than most post launch windows.
Even though Wii is obviously disrupting the market and is unlikely to not sell more than the other 2, Xbox 360 is also disrupting the high-end sector, a sector that is now, by default, a market of high-end niche technology hubs. Xbox 360 is cheap for and considered on par (bar software) by many consumers who this kinda product appeals to.
PS3 is being displaced and disrupted. Its market is now minimised by alternatives. Instead of having competion from simply a weaker similar style of gaming entertainment (GC and Xbox) and the typical cinema, book reading, watching TV (etc), it has the Wii as a new alternative paradigm of entertainment. One which has mass apeal and has disrupted the market.
It's NES all over again. Sony can win over MS with software, Blu-ray (if it get's an significant momentum going) and brand strength/promotion (among other more minor things). Xbox 360 has momentum coming this year with lots of software that appeals to masses of their smaller disrupted market (thanks to Nintendo), has a lower price point, and already has an installed base and great third party momentum. If MS pulls a good year, and PS3 doesn't have a forecased boost for 2008 from Blu-ray adopters (that also NEED to be interested in buying games), a lowered price, or upcoming titles that can make it win over 360, then Sony will have little chance of turning it around and will thus lose the console war (unless, of course, the market changes significantly for whatever reason; like our culture changes to being lots of core gamers and tech savvy people who find 360 and PS3 technology and its uses as seemless - unlikely, however).
This year is very interesting. This will likely be Wii's second smallest year (behind 2006) for a long time to come (until the cycle is disrupted by new formats). Also potentially PS3's biggest year, or close enough (yet still not a big year). Same with 360.
PS3 is being displaced and disrupted. Its market is now minimised by alternatives. Instead of having competion from simply a weaker similar style of gaming entertainment (GC and Xbox) and the typical cinema, book reading, watching TV (etc), it has the Wii as a new alternative paradigm of entertainment. One which has mass apeal and has disrupted the market.
It's NES all over again. Sony can win over MS with software, Blu-ray (if it get's an significant momentum going) and brand strength/promotion (among other more minor things). Xbox 360 has momentum coming this year with lots of software that appeals to masses of their smaller disrupted market (thanks to Nintendo), has a lower price point, and already has an installed base and great third party momentum. If MS pulls a good year, and PS3 doesn't have a forecased boost for 2008 from Blu-ray adopters (that also NEED to be interested in buying games), a lowered price, or upcoming titles that can make it win over 360, then Sony will have little chance of turning it around and will thus lose the console war (unless, of course, the market changes significantly for whatever reason; like our culture changes to being lots of core gamers and tech savvy people who find 360 and PS3 technology and its uses as seemless - unlikely, however).
This year is very interesting. This will likely be Wii's second smallest year (behind 2006) for a long time to come (until the cycle is disrupted by new formats). Also potentially PS3's biggest year, or close enough (yet still not a big year). Same with 360.
DefectiveReject
Banned
sonycowboy said:
In the UK on our main game retailers have MArio Galaxy, Metroid and SSBB out as Q1 2007!!
Parl said:
Lapsed is better. Let lapsed do it.
And nobody expected the Wii to outsell the 360....do I really need to go into the NPD predictions thread and pull up the predictions of 95% of gaf? It's a big deal if the Wii, which was so supply limited, outsells the 360 with its first truly blockbuster game.
And I won't be even looking at the implications that would have for Sony, which would be extremely bad.
I'd be pretty surprised if Nintendo was actually able to ship that many consoles out, but kudos to them if they can. Hopefully they will set a positive example of how to do a successful global rollout that MS and Sony will learn from!
A 2.5 attach rate for PS3 would be even more surprising though all things considered.
This is Patcher though, I think he just throws darts at a board with random estimates on them and then publishes his results. I think time has proven one thing here - patcher sucks at darts.
A 2.5 attach rate for PS3 would be even more surprising though all things considered.
This is Patcher though, I think he just throws darts at a board with random estimates on them and then publishes his results. I think time has proven one thing here - patcher sucks at darts.
a newer console thats $150 cheaper with a 20 year old fanbase outselling a consoles thats been out a year, $150 more expensive and a 5 year old fanbase? OMG!!!! :lol The only shocker about nintendo outselling MS would be the fact that i never ONCE saw a wii on shelves thru december. I'm sure many here agree. I mean we all knew they were selling out FAST but you think you'd see em every now and then.
turkification
Member
Liquid said:
Yes but the funny thing is not only the hardcore gamers are buying the Wii, i actually heard a girl today say i want to buy a Wii..like WTF?
goldenpp72
Member
Im more surprised that they were able to ship that many, considering ive not seen a wii on store shelves but see plenty of ps3s nowadays.
sonycowboy said:
Well that's an impressive list, no doubt... I'd have to pick up about 10 of those games... Too bad I'll be away for 6 months in training, no videogames allowed
... Only plus side is, when I'm out, those titles plus more should be out as well... I'm going to have a hell of a backlog with these, and some 360 titles...But do these numbers really tell anything yet to be honest? I mean, you're going to have the fanbase from last gen still purchasing systems at this point, it's hard to pick out who's going to be breaking new ground, and who isn't at this point... It's going to have to be MS and Ninty getting new customers, and to see how much Sony can retain of it's fanbase...
duderon said:
when was the GC $150 cheaper? :lol TRY AGAIN. i mean dont get it wrong. I'm a part of the wii60 movment myself. I just find this odd since since launch day when i picked up mine i have NEVER seen a wii in stores. ANYWHERE. ps3? numerous times. wii? Besides ads in the paper a couple weeks after launch where people lined up....not a wii, not a nunchuck, not a wiimote...NOTHING.
I've seen this before, a Nintendo console sells well at Christmas (kids/family) go figure. Who would have thunk that? The 360 sells less than the original Xbox at the same time in it's console life shows that price is a factor.
After the Wii drought fades in the next 2 months lets see what sales are like at that point. Gamecube sales throughout the year besides Christmas were never that great, I think Wii sales will follow a similar path starting in March. And we wait......
After the Wii drought fades in the next 2 months lets see what sales are like at that point. Gamecube sales throughout the year besides Christmas were never that great, I think Wii sales will follow a similar path starting in March. And we wait......
sonycowboy said:
Assassin's Creed was pushed forward to sometime next fiscal year (meaning it could just as well hit in early March 08
).For the doubters, the only other uncertain games on sonycowboy's list are Mercenaries 2, Armored Core 4 and (I guess, since we have heard so little about it recently) Heavenly Sword.
sonycowboy
Member
More from Mr Pachter. Notice the estimated decline in PSP SW sales...
Oh lord. I hope this turns out true, becuase I got alot of shit for my predictions about the Wii outselling the 360.
BTW, a HUGE thing when considering the success of the Wii in december need to think about this;
If the 1.3million number holds up, it would be higher then any single month the gamecube had in any country.
If 1.3million holds up, it will be a higher month then the DS has ever had in the United States (Excluding this December of course)
This number also matches the highest month ever in the U.S. for the SNES wich went on to sell 22illion units in the U.S.
1.3million marks a return of Nintendo consoles in the U.S. to be sure. I wnder how many Wii's they could have sold had thier been no supply issues. The highest the N64 hit was 1.9million in a month.
We shall see though.
BTW, a HUGE thing when considering the success of the Wii in december need to think about this;
If the 1.3million number holds up, it would be higher then any single month the gamecube had in any country.
If 1.3million holds up, it will be a higher month then the DS has ever had in the United States (Excluding this December of course)
This number also matches the highest month ever in the U.S. for the SNES wich went on to sell 22illion units in the U.S.
1.3million marks a return of Nintendo consoles in the U.S. to be sure. I wnder how many Wii's they could have sold had thier been no supply issues. The highest the N64 hit was 1.9million in a month.
We shall see though.
unomas said:
I agree...but even though there will be a drop-off, I expect it to sell in very solid numbers throughout the year. Kids have birthdays all year long, after all.
January and February are going to be a much better gauge as to what to expect down the line. My stab-in-the-dark guess is that it'll sell at about 60% - 70% compared to 360 sales thoughout 2007.Rancid Mildew
Banned
unomas said:
I swear the notion that Nintendo underperforms compared to the rest of the industry post Christmas was disproven by several graphs in prior threads.
Regardless, the Wii outselling the 360 in December was almost universally unexpected and would be a major achievement considering how supply constrained it is.
Rancid Mildew
Banned
3rdman said:I agree...but even though there will be a drop-off, I expect it to sell in very solid numbers throughout the year. Kids have birthdays all year long, after all.
I'm fairly certain that a demographic beyond kids will try to grab a Wii as well.
KeithFranklin
Banned
Rancid Mildew said:
Actually the only thead that I saw the calculations indeed showed that Nintendo consoles (Dont know about handhelds) did indeed have the largest post December drop in sales.
Frankfurter
Member
sonycowboy said:
A decrease in software in its second year on the market...?
Afaik even in Japan PSP software sales in 2006 are substantially higher than in 2005.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
Impressive Wii numbers if it is true. But the problem is that in Q1 the Wii has only Wario Ware and Mario Party 8. I only hope that Third parties will deliver some good software for the Wii relativity soon.
Yup, and I'll tell you right now;Grecco said:
All those people who went out and bought a Wii(Non-gamers, parents, grandfolk) will go nuts over wiiplay.
That game will keep the Wii rolling more then anyone could have ever imagined.
2million+ in the States, at least.
Not to mention the fact that it comes with a controller.
gamergirly
Member
Amazing numbers
MrSardonic
The nerdiest nerd of all the nerds in nerdland
sonycowboy said:
wow, you mean it's going to get worse?