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[Square2005]

This number also matches the highest month ever in the U.S. for the SNES wich went on to sell 22illion units in the U.S.

1.3million marks a return of Nintendo consoles in the U.S. to be sure. I wnder how many Wii's they could have sold had thier been no supply issues. The highest the N64 hit was 1.9million in a month.

Where'd you hear that? The SNES sold over 1.3m in December 1993 in the U.S. alone (closer to 1.5m actually and 2.1m that x'mas)!

The N64's biggest month (Dec. '97) was b/w 1.6m-1.7m unless you're including Canada...

 

[birdchili]

Theres at least one title per month on Wii Jan-Feb-March that will sell well. This drought is overrated

didn't Nintendo promise January announcements on the Wii-front too? given that they're going to be pushing "smaller" games, and given that they've been pretty consistent saying they wouldn't have a GC-style year-one game drought - there may be some stuff coming soon that we don't know about yet... perhaps some of the occasionally-mentioned GameCube remakes, or some original Wii VC games?

they're also obviously holding some big VC stuff to help get them through the dry spells, though i don't think this will help preserve momentum much personally.

 

[Ceb]

1st party domination.

wow, you mean it's going to get worse?

:lol

 

[No6]

Yup, and I'll tell you right now;

All those people who went out and bought a Wii(Non-gamers, parents, grandfolk) will go nuts over wiiplay.


That game will keep the Wii rolling more then anyone could have ever imagined.

2million+ in the States, at least.

Not to mention the fact that it comes with a controller.

Ok, but all that tells me is that the Wii will become the home of cheap minigame collections. When is grandpa going to play something deep like Zelda? Why would a 3rd party dedicate any real support for the Wii if they can make the same money selling PopCap-esque games to the budget market? Doubly so if there's no evidence that non-Popcap games will even sell?

 

[ksamedi]

The game drought for Wii is overrated, people are buying the Wii for Wiisports and Zelda, not Metroid or Mario.

 

[gamergirly]

The game drought for Wii is overrated, people are buying the Wii for Wiisports and Zelda, not Metroid or Mario.

If the Zelda attach rate continues to be above 40% for the following months and Wii console sales continue to be decent, Twilight Princess has a great chance of breaking 2 million for NA alone

 

[Newzboyz99]

Xbox had so many deals this Xmas that the point of difference in price was not nearly as large as people are making it out to be.

 

[jetjevons]

You're going to start a list war. But, the next 3 months+ have a large number of anticipated PS3 titles, IMO. Assuming they actually get released accoroing to the current released dates.

Motorstorm, LAIR, Heavenly Sword, VF5, Oblivion, Rainbow Six, GRAW 2, Mercenaries 2, & Assassin's Creed

+ some library support in

NBA Street, MOH: Airborne, Splinter Cell, FEAR, Armored Core 4, Virtua Tennis.

And how many of these games will be out by March? Place your bets ladies and Gentlemen.

/you missed The Darkness! :-(

 

[Saoh]

SO when we going to see the real NPD numbers?

This thursday

 

[Ceb]

And how many of these games will be out by March? Place your bets ladies and Gentlemen.

12/15.

 

[jimbo]

I was arguing with someone about Nintendo easily being able to produce 1 million or more units for December in the US, considering how many they were able to produce for Japan, and it seems like I was right. If the Wii does indeed do this, it seems I will be proven right. Great job Nintendo. It's really not that surprising considering you can't find one anywhere. So Nintendo can simply sell them as fast as they can make them.

GAF will always act surprised though, because around here, taking the guestimates pulled out of the ass by the largest amount of people hold more water than actually thinking logically and considering all factors. If 10 people guess something and their guess match no matter how they all came up with it......that holds more water than 3 non-agreeing guesses that are actually based on some logic. Sad but true.

GAF= going with popular opinion. Even though it's wrong just about as much as it's right.

 

[soundwave05]

If Nintendo actually shipped that many, it's scary, because demand for the machine was still waaaaaaay higher, these things didn't stay on storeshelves for more than seconds like anywhere in December.

They could have sold 2 million easily if they had produced that many, which would be bigger than any month for the SNES or N64.

I think Mario Party 8 and Sonic: SotR will be strong sellers on the Wii, while Wario Ware and Wii Play tap right into the Wii Sports demographic. Metroid's importance is greatly overrated.

 

[linsivvi]

Ok, but all that tells me is that the Wii will become the home of cheap minigame collections. When is grandpa going to play something deep like Zelda? Why would a 3rd party dedicate any real support for the Wii if they can make the same money selling PopCap-esque games to the budget market? Doubly so if there's no evidence that non-Popcap games will even sell?

Not this argument again....

 

[Yamauchi]

Wait, what? Nintendo shipped more than 2 million in North America and we were still seeing the insane demand? Now that's just crazy-talk.

Also, it looks like Nintendo shipped more than a million Wiis in Japan last year too.

 

[Haunted]

The game drought for Wii is overrated, people are buying the Wii for Wiisports and Zelda

QFT - those two alone (Wii Sports more than Zelda) have the potential to sustain a near sell-out until the summer.

 

[Rancid Mildew]

I was arguing with someone about Nintendo easily being able to produce 1 million or more units for December in the US, considering how many they were able to produce for Japan, and it seems like I was right. If the Wii does indeed do this, it seems I will be proven right. Great job Nintendo. It's really not that surprising considering you can't find one anywhere. So Nintendo can simply sell them as fast as they can make them.

GAF will always act surprised though, because around here, taking the guestimates pulled out of the ass by the largest amount of people hold more water than actually thinking logically and considering all factors. If 10 people guess something and their guess match no matter how they all came up with it......that holds more water than 3 non-agreeing guesses that are actually based on some logic. Sad but true.

GAF= going with popular opinion. Even though it's wrong just about as much as it's right.

I'm not acting. I really didn't expect Nintendo to even come close to possibly outselling the 360 due to supply issues and the history its had with the Gamecube. I expected it to do well, but not this well.

 

[Kandinsky]

so wait now everybody expected wii to outsell everything?

i know, its like "bizarro" Gaf :lol

 

[Chiggs]

These numbers are going to be off, so why all the arguing? At least wait for the real thread. :lol

If true, however, the Wii and 360 are kicking all types of ass--and that's without Mario or Halo.

 

[jimbo]

QFT - those two alone (Wii Sports more than Zelda) have the potential to sustain a near sell-out until the summer.

:lol

That was a joke right?

 

[dammitmattt]

Theres at least one title per month on Wii Jan-Feb-March that will sell well. This drought is overrated

Jan - Wario Ware (minigame collection)
Feb - Wii Play (minigame collection)
Feb - Sonic (finally an actual game)
Mar - Mario Party 8 (the granddaddy of minigame collections)

I have no doubt that these games will sell well (I'll buy all four for sure), but there is only one actual "big" game, and it's a Sonic game that is not likely to have a significant amount of gameplay legs. These kinds of games are fun and all, but if I ONLY had a Wii I would want much, much more.

Aside from a few lame ports, the drought is very much real for traditional games on the Wii.

 

[soundwave05]

It's still a lot better than the first Q1s for either the GCN or DS. Sonic and Mario Party could also be big sellers (500k+).

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Microsoft should drop their price. That would stop Nintendo in its tracks.

I know. With how much money Nintendo are already losing on the Wii there's no way they could afford to have a price war with a relatively early price drop like N64, GCN, or DS.

wii > 360?

Isn't that what all we expected?

*checks NPD prediction thread*
Not really. Scanning the first 100 posts I see 37 predictions, 7 with Wii ahead.

I swear the notion that Nintendo underperforms compared to the rest of the industry post Christmas was disproven by several graphs in prior threads.

Wrong. This came up in discussion sometime in the last month so I decided to look at the December->January percentage shifts from 2001-2002 through 2005-2006. I was surprised to find how CONSISTENT the rule was. In no year was there a system that had a bigger drop than any Nintendo system. Whether one looks at this as Nintendo having a strong Christmas, Nintendo having a poor post-Christmas, or coincidence is up to interpretation though.

 

[ksamedi]

Wiiplay is way overrated BTW, people will buy it for a new controller and basically free game, but its not actually free because the price is just about right, 10 euros. I actually bought it by mistake, i asked for an extra controller with the Wii while buying Zelda and Redsteel and the store game me Wiiplay and i didnt even notice it. Ping pong and shooting rocks though.

 

[Haunted]

:lol

That was a joke right?

not at all.

 

[Parl]

Lapsed is better. Let lapsed do it.

And nobody expected the Wii to outsell the 360....do I really need to go into the NPD predictions thread and pull up the predictions of 95% of gaf? It's a big deal if the Wii, which was so supply limited, outsells the 360 with its first truly blockbuster game.

And I won't be even looking at the implications that would have for Sony, which would be extremely bad.

The whole point of a discussion forum is for people to express their views, and I do allow Lapsed to express his/her views, what's the problem. If you're talking about disruption specifically, I figure you might be, then Lapsed isn't the only one who understands the concepts, it's hardly surprising for such thinking to enter into my posts, just as much as it's hardly surprising if a fanboy acts like a fanboy.

 

[Odysseus]

uh, pachter

360 sold 1.5 million in december

you promised me

 

[WarLox]

I can say with certainty that Wii will NOT outsell 360 in this Thursday's NPD report... I'll even take a 3 month ban if that do... but still its funny to see so many people with their hopes up... just to be crushed in a few days... should make the Thursday alot funnier..

 

[Parl]

If he's right, then I'm right. I don't like it when Pachter predicts the same as me, because it means I'm wrong. Well, I'll let myself off this time, these are revised down estimations.

 

[soundwave05]

I can say with certainty that Wii will NOT outsell 360 in this Thursday's NPD report... I'll even take a 3 month ban if that do... but still its funny to see so many people with their hopes up... just to be crushed in a few days... should make the Thursday alot funnier..

What difference does it really make? Does anyone on this board really think the Wii couldn't have outsold any of the consoles if Nintendo had shipped a reasonable number of systems?

I think it's pretty obvious the Wii could have sold 2 million in December ... doubt you could really say that about any of the other consoles. Hell it's January, if Nintendo shipped 200k right now to retailers, all those units would probably be gone very quickly.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I'm so f^cked on predictions if Wii > 360 > PS2...

But it would be an awesome thread so I don't care! :lol

 

[WarLox]

What difference does it really make? Does anyone on this board really think the Wii couldn't have outsold any of the consoles if Nintendo had shipped a reasonable number of systems?

I think it's pretty obvious the Wii could have sold 2 million in December ... doubt you could really say that about any of the other consoles. Hell it's January, if Nintendo shipped 200k right now to retailers, all those units would probably be gone very quickly.

if brings alot to the table.... PS3 could of sold 2million + IF it was in good supply and costed $250... same with 360... if it wasn't so it didn't... same with the Wii... but fact is... Nintendo shipped what it shipped.. and sold what it sold... which was less than
360..

 

[soundwave05]

if brings alot to the table.... PS3 could of sold 2million + IF it was in good supply and costed $250... same with 360... if it wasn't so it didn't... same with the Wii... but fact is... Nintendo shipped what it shipped.. and sold what it sold... which was less than
360..

If the Wii sells 100k less than the 360 because of supply restrictions , is the 360 suddenly a smash success? Or vice versa is it suddenly a failure if the Wii outstells it by 100k in December?

The Wii is a completely different market from the 360. A lot of the people buying/interested in the Wii would never buy a 360, this is a lot different from the GC-PS2-XBox situation and people need to also finally accept that.

The PS2 sold much higher than the XBox or GCN during their launches, that is an example of a market-leading platform crushing the competetion during their launches. The situation with the Wii and 360 is nothing like this.

The PS3 will be $250 ... in like 2008/2009. That's hardly the same thing.

 

[Parl]

My original predictions... Hmm.

DS - 2,170,000
PS2 - 1,305,000
GBA - 1,260,000
Xbox 360 - 1,207,000
PSP - 1,195,000
Wii - 770,000
PS3 - 450,000

I'm gonna adjust them as I previously didn't think Nintendo would come anywhere near a 2 million shipment for NA last year. Maybe my PS3 one is too shy, as well.

Wii - 1,202,000 (Think Pachter is outdoing Wii a little)
PS3 - 562,000

I'll stay with the rest.

 

[WarLox]

If the Wii sells 100k less than the 360 because of supply restrictions , is the 360 suddenly a smash success. Or vice versa is it suddenly a failure if the Wii outstells it by 100k in December?

360/Wii will be a success when they outsell their previous consoles

The Wii is a completely different market from the 360. A lot of the people buying/interested in the Wii would never buy a 360, this is a lot different from the GC-PS2-XBox situation and people need to also finally accept that.

how so ?? Theres people who brought a GC that never brought or wanted a PS2/Xbox and "vice versa" ... how is this different for the current situation ?

The PS2 sold much higher than the XBox or GCN during their launches.

ps2 destroyed gcube and xbox :lol

The PS3 will be $250 ... in like 2008/2009. That's hardly the same thing.

????????

 

[Haunted]

The Wii is a completely different market from the 360. A lot of the people buying/interested in the Wii would never buy a 360, this is a lot different from the GC-PS2-XBox situation and people need to also finally accept that.

That's true in the long run, but I believe that many, if not most of those that bought a Wii up until now are of the (hardcore)gamer variety. The lapsed, casuals and untapped gamers are definitely not early adopters. (That's why Zelda was a launch game).

 

[soundwave05]

PS2 outsold the GC + XBox by significant margins during their launch periods.

 

[Ulairi]

Jan - Wario Ware (minigame collection)
Feb - Wii Play (minigame collection)
Feb - Sonic (finally an actual game)
Mar - Mario Party 8 (the granddaddy of minigame collections)

I have no doubt that these games will sell well (I'll buy all four for sure), but there is only one actual "big" game, and it's a Sonic game that is not likely to have a significant amount of gameplay legs. These kinds of games are fun and all, but if I ONLY had a Wii I would want much, much more.

Aside from a few lame ports, the drought is very much real for traditional games on the Wii.

Nintendo had to jump feet first into getting the other market, that is going to want more of the "minigame" collections. In Q2, hardcore gamers will get Metroid. The VC stuff is also for hardcore gamers. Nintendo can drop Super Mario RPG, ALTTP, or any number of games to keep hardcore gamers happy.

 

[GhaleonEB]

We expect a dramatic year-over-year increase in sales for Xbox 360 software (not coincidentally, up 360%),

Um, doesn't he mean coincidentally? Saying not coincidentally implies he picked that to be cute or something. Like it's not an accident 360 sales are up 360%. Maybe I'm reading that wrong but I laughed out loud when I did.

 

[soundwave05]

That's true in the long run, but I believe that many, if not most of those that bought a Wii up until now are of the (hardcore)gamer variety. The lapsed, casuals and untapped gamers are definitely not early adopters. (That's why Zelda was a launch game).

If they did sell 1+ million Wiis in December this is a *massive* improvement over the GCN which sold 550k or thereabouts in Dec 2001.

Especailly when you factor in the lines/instant sell-outs of the Wii all through December ... clearly it's tracking well above the GCN not only in sales numbers but demand also.

I think the media frenzy over the system definitely translated into Nintendo grabbing the attention of a broader consumer this past month. The mindshare of the Wii versus the GameCube is night and day.

There's no way demand should be this high for the Wii, Nintendo's position should be *weaker* coming off the GameCube, not stronger. Sega was weakened considerably after the Saturn for instance.

 

[dammitmattt]

if brings alot to the table.... PS3 could of sold 2million + IF it was in good supply and costed $250... same with 360... if it wasn't so it didn't... same with the Wii... but fact is... Nintendo shipped what it shipped.. and sold what it sold... which was less than
360..

I'm not so sure that the PS3 could've sold 2 million+, especially judging by the amount of systems sitting on shelves now. It's moving briskly, but not THAT briskly.

Nintendo had to jump feet first into getting the other market, that is going to want more of the "minigame" collections. In Q2, hardcore gamers will get Metroid. The VC stuff is also for hardcore gamers. Nintendo can drop Super Mario RPG, ALTTP, or any number of games to keep hardcore gamers happy.

Are you sure that the market is going to want more minigames? Mario Party is not as universal as Wii Sports? Also, Metroid is not confirmed at all for Q2, and replaying old games is a poor substitute for substantial, new experiences.

 

[Yamauchi]

Nintendo is failing. It has taken them a full 6 weeks to reach half of the 360's userbase worldwide.

 

[jarrod]

Nintendo had to jump feet first into getting the other market, that is going to want more of the "minigame" collections. In Q2, hardcore gamers will get Metroid. The VC stuff is also for hardcore gamers. Nintendo can drop Super Mario RPG, ALTTP, or any number of games to keep hardcore gamers happy.

Importers also get Naruto Shippuuden: Gekitou Ninja Taisen EX in February. Some people may slag on Naruto but it has it's own dedicated fanbase and frankly, this game will probably outsell VF5 in Japan.

 

[Zonar]

GREATEST MOVIE EVER CREATED.[/thread derailment]

 

[Zombie James]

How do these estimates work? Are they actual estimates (guesses) or do they look at the final numbers and give them out informally as "estimates"?

 

[Ulairi]

I'm not so sure that the PS3 could've sold 2 million+, especially judging by the amount of systems sitting on shelves now. It's moving briskly, but not THAT briskly.



Are you sure that the market is going to want more minigames? Mario Party is not as universal as Wii Sports? Also, Metroid is not confirmed at all for Q2, and replaying old games is a poor substitute for substantial, new experiences.

I think they will. Wii Play, Mario Party, are going to be big with the casual gamers. Nintendo needs something in March and I bet it's Metroid.

Keep in mind, that Xbox 360 had nothing until March. Sony really doesn't have anything until March. Nintendo will be fine. The audience that Nintendo is going after will continue to buy the system for Wii sports. They don't pick a game, have everyone buy it, and pick a new game next month. That is what the 360 audience has been doing. Look at the sales of Brain Age, Nintendogs and other non-core games have been doing.

 

[jarrod]

Are you sure that the market is going to want more minigames? Mario Party is not as universal as Wii Sports? Also, Metroid is not confirmed at all for Q2, and replaying old games is a poor substitute for substantial, new experiences.

There's smaller scale traditional games that're coming to... stuff like Kororinpa and Wing Island are scheduled for Q1 in the west, even it's not quite official yet.

Japan has it quite a bit better with stuff like Naruto EX, One Piece UA and DQ Swords early on... I think a large part of the problem is that western firms are doing mainly adjusted multiplatform games while Japan is approaching the console with new software for the most part. Then again, that's sort of the case for all platforms really.

 

[PantherLotus]

Nintendo is failing. It has taken them a full 6 weeks to reach half of the 360's userbase worldwide.

:lol

(never out of character!)

 

[soundwave05]

Isn't Fire Emblem Q1 in Japan also?

 

[GhaleonEB]

How do these estimates work? Are they actual estimates (guesses) or do they look at the final numbers and give them out informally as "estimates"?

Actual estimates, based on inputs like channel checks and such. NPD is not out until Thursday; considering how often Pacthter is wrong by double-digit percentages, there's a big margin for error.

 

[Haunted]

If they did sell 1+ million Wiis in December this is a *massive* improvement over the GCN which sold 550k or thereabouts in Dec 2001.

Especailly when you factor in the lines/instant sell-outs of the Wii all through December ... clearly it's tracking well above the GCN not only in sales numbers but demand also.

I think the media frenzy over the system definitely translated into Nintendo grabbing the attention of a broader consumer this past month. The mindshare of the Wii versus the GameCube is night and day.

There's no way demand should be this high for the Wii, Nintendo's position should be *weaker* coming off the GameCube, not stronger. Sega was weakened considerably after the Saturn for instance.

If you're right and the untapped gamers are aware of the Wii and many of them want one already, then Wii-sales will truly rise to heaven in the next months and won't let go.

I personally think that it's mostly gamers (maybe a lot of casuals?) that got one until now, while lapsed and untapped gamers will want to join the Wii-owner group rather steadily over time.