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[electroplankton]

Now this should probably scare Nintendo because they were probably hoping to have this game continue to make a them a huge amount of money to bankroll their other expenses. Now they shouldn't go into panic mode until seeing NSMBU's sales though.

I think NSMB2 will make them a huge amount of money, especially considering all the DLC, and the fact that it will keep selling for the next few years or so. I mean, for being such a cheap game (how lonn did the development last? Something like 9 months?), already 3 million units are a lot.

 

[metalslimer]

I think NSMB2 will make them a huge amount of money, especially considering all the DLC, and the fact that it will keep selling for the next few years or so. I mean, for being such a cheap game (how lonn did the development last? Something like 9 months?), already 3 million units are a lot.

Yes it will make them a good amount of money. The point was with game production being as expensive as it is, Nintendo was probably looking to make a lot more money. Nintendo makes these games once a gen per system so this is there shot. And since the new Wii Sports/Wii Fit won't be selling 20 million copies again they are going to have to find some other sources of revenue if they want to get into the black again selling consoles at a loss.

 

[Lyude77]

Why are people really discussing NSMB2's sales? It's very easy to figure out why it's not selling up the original's standards.
1) There has been Mario overload in terms of platformign games in the past few years. 3D Land came out in November for christ's sake . And now NSMBU is coming in a few days.
2) The 3DS isn't as popular as the DS was and isn't attracting the same audience. When the DS Lite came out the DS picked up a lot and NSMB benefited a lot from that. The XL hasn't done nearly as much for the 3DS, so Mario sales aren't as great
3) The series just isn't "NEW" anymore. NSMB2 added nothing to really shake up the series. NSMB was a return to the classic, NSMBW added 4 player multplayer and was on a console. Online multiplayer could have brought a revival of interest in the games the same way I think online gaming really helped Diamond and Pearl bring Pokemon interest back.

Now this should probably scare Nintendo because they were probably hoping to have this game continue to make a them a huge amount of money to bankroll their other expenses. Now they shouldn't go into panic mode until seeing NSMBU's sales though.

I think the biggest (easily fixable) problem is/was #1. Some people like me are skipping NSMB2 for NSMBU, at least temporarily. Also, Christmas sales are likely to be diminished because of NSMBU.

 

[electroplankton]

Yes it will make them a good amount of money. The point was with game production being as expensive as it is, Nintendo was probably looking to make a lot more money. Nintendo makes these games once a gen per system so this is there shot. And since the new Wii Sports/Wii Fit won't be selling 20 million copies again they are going to have to find some other sources of revenue if they want to get into the black again selling consoles at a loss.

That's why they have also Mario Kart, Pokémon, Kirby, etc.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

That doesn't seem likely, since Nintendo is already losing money. A big price cut now isn't going to help them return to profitability any time soon.

It'll happen next year guaranteed. We'll be coming on 2 years since the pricecut, plus Iwata's acknowledged they're not content with western performance. Once Wii U launch is out of the way, they can refocus a little a push 3DS as well next year with a cut and their excellent lineup.

 

[jcm]

It'll happen next year guaranteed. We'll be coming on 2 years since the pricecut, plus Iwata's acknowledged they're not content with western performance. Once Wii U launch is out of the way, they can refocus a little a push 3DS as well next year with a cut and their excellent lineup.

I imagine it will depend on how quickly they can reduce the cost of the 3DS and Wii U. They aren't likely to sell both systems at a loss.

 

[Mpl90]

I imagine it will depend on how quickly they can reduce the cost of the 3DS and Wii U. They aren't likely to sell both systems at a loss.

We know that right now 3DS is profitable, and 3DS XL was profitable from the start. Yes, probably next year we'll see a not-that-big cut ( OG 3DS from 169.99 to 149.99).

Still, I'm very surprised 3DS XL had a great effect on European sales, despite the lack of AC adapter included in that territory, while it didn't in USA.

Europe 3DS XL's impact:

Available on July, 28th, 3DS+3DS XL = 92k the first week ( 1-2 days counted for 3DS XL) Launched with New Art Academy. No AC adaptor included. Bigger impact than price cut last year, best selling platform in August, good sales in September and October's first week ( slowest period for handhelds) + Pokèmon accelerating the trend for the end of the year

US 3DS XL's impact:

Available on August, 19th, 3DS+3DS XL = around 100k ( the whole week counted for 3DS XL)
Launched with New Super Mario Bros. 2. AC adaptor included. Lower impact than price cut last year, still second to 360 + Pokèmon accelerating the trend for the end of the year

The only reason I can think of...is the freaking DS. In Europe it's dead ( selling as well as Vita, much lower than PSP) while in US it's still doing something. DSi's price cut is damaging 3DS' sales in US. Though, unless they cut the price again, DS will be dead next year in US too, and 3DS will do better just due to this.

 

[Syphon Filter]

RE6 sales definitely got hurt with the reviews.

 

[DragonSworne]

Did Nintendo mess up by releasing NSMB2?

 

[metalslimer]

Did Nintendo mess up by releasing NSMB2?

No because looking at 3DS sales along with NSMB2's legs, it's one of the only things driving the system so I can't even imagine how low it would have went without it. The mistake is how high the XL is priced and other issues with the 3DS (localization and software pricing).

 

[Byakuya769]

Are they saying even the 3DS decreased year-over-year?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I imagine it will depend on how quickly they can reduce the cost of the 3DS and Wii U. They aren't likely to sell both systems at a loss.

Nintendo's all about course correction these days. They're going to do what it takes to ensure 3DS has a bright future, one way or the other. And pricing is likely at the top of that list.

As of now I was under the impression only the basic WiiU is loss bearing too, so maybe it's a bit like the Vita WiFi/3G dynamic we saw last year. I don't see it taking too long for it to be in the black.

 

[Eusis]

That doesn't seem likely, since Nintendo is already losing money. A big price cut now isn't going to help them return to profitability any time soon.

It's mobile hardware essentially, ARM processor and all that. I'm sure prices can drop fairly quickly on the components and at least by the middle of next year they can throw a significant price cut. Or even save it for the holidays.

2) The 3DS isn't as popular as the DS was and isn't attracting the same audience. When the DS Lite came out the DS picked up a lot and NSMB benefited a lot from that. The XL hasn't done nearly as much for the 3DS, so Mario sales aren't as great

Like I pointed out the trajectory seems almost exactly the same: both systems were sitting at about 21 million units sold after a year and a half, even with the roughly even split between US/Japan. The bigger problem seems to be that's ALL it's doing, rather than leaping ahead using the momentum of the DS, I remember ShockingAlberto mentioning that when the system launched surprisingly weakly. Though yeah, it'll probably help to have a 3DS revision that includes what improvements it can from the XL model to be cheaper and more comfortable. Bonus if they go for DSi sized screens rather than DS, the difference was small but it made a big difference.

 

[m.i.s.]

I was thinking more about the price of the hardware. How much was the GBA when it launched? And the DS? You see, those platforms had a mass-market price to begin with. 3DS doesn't. Even with the cut, the price is still above the predecessors; and introducing a more expensive version doesn't seem to help a lot.

Cheaper prices will certainly help - but only to a certain degree. A previous posters suggestion of $130 for 3DS and $170 for 3DS XL would put it in line with the pricing seen with Lite and it's XL. However, will the increase in sales be offest by the lower profit on the new MSRP? Iwata doesn't appear to think so - not at this stage at least. And his views on price drops are duly noted - even if you and I don't agree with him. Perhaps a lowering of BOM will afford Nintendo the room to cut prices and still sell the 3DS at a profit at a lower price.

On the software side, Iwata can berate the low prices of smartphone games all he wants but low prices are a fact of life. He can either embrace this change or risk becoming irrelevant - as indeed Nintendo did become when it eschewed CD's in favour of ROM carts in the N64 phase. I'm not saying that Nintendo should drop prices in a race to the bottom - but at the same time nor should they even be thinking of increasing prices above DS level. There should absolutely be a starting point of 0.99 cent games somewhere in the eShop for the 3DS.

Iwata has also mentioned the notion of "Nintendo profits" which I take to mean the astronomical profits Nintendo accrued under his stewardship during the DS / Wii phase. I think that was a one-off and unlikely to be repeated - if ever. Iwata appears to think otherwise.

 

[Frankfurter]

We know that right now 3DS is profitable, and 3DS XL was profitable from the start. Yes, probably next year we'll see a not-that-big cut ( OG 3DS from 169.99 to 149.99).

Still, I'm very surprised 3DS XL had a great effect on European sales, despite the lack of AC adapter included in that territory, while it didn't in USA.

Europe 3DS XL's impact:

Available on July, 28th, 3DS+3DS XL = 92k the first week ( 1-2 days counted for 3DS XL) Launched with New Art Academy. No AC adaptor included. Bigger impact than price cut last year, best selling platform in August, good sales in September and October's first week ( slowest period for handhelds) + Pokèmon accelerating the trend for the end of the year

US 3DS XL's impact:

Available on August, 19th, 3DS+3DS XL = around 100k ( the whole week counted for 3DS XL)
Launched with New Super Mario Bros. 2. AC adaptor included. Lower impact than price cut last year, still second to 360 + Pokèmon accelerating the trend for the end of the year

The only reason I can think of...is the freaking DS. In Europe it's dead ( selling as well as Vita, much lower than PSP) while in US it's still doing something. DSi's price cut is damaging 3DS' sales in US. Though, unless they cut the price again, DS will be dead next year in US too, and 3DS will do better just due to this.

Concerning the European sales did Nintendo or a tracker relase sales data or do you also have data for Europe that isn't known to us?

 

[electroplankton]

Did Nintendo mess up by releasing NSMB2?

Along with franchise fatigue (a relative concept when you sell 25-30 million units with the first two games in the sub-series), I think that NSMB2 was released too close to SM3DL; on DS, the first Mario platform was SM64DS in 2004/2005; NSMB came one year and a half later. Then both kept selling over time, sure, but the two Mario on 3DS are advertised and proposed by Nintendo as must-have for the platform, while SM64DS was never considered as such.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

We know that right now 3DS is profitable, and 3DS XL was profitable from the start. Yes, probably next year we'll see a not-that-big cut ( OG 3DS from 169.99 to 149.99).

I see a $149/169 3DS/XL probably next August, greasing the wheels for fall/holiday 2013. Nintendo's 1H 2013 lineup is surprisingly strong (Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem, Pokémon MD, Brain-Age, etc) so they can probably coast on that awhile as is.

 

[Mpl90]

Concerning the European sales did Nintendo or a tracker relase sales data or do you also have data for Europe that isn't known to us?

Nintendo released datas at the end of October, at the Investor Meeting

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/121025/index.html

This graph shows the sales of home consoles in the European market. These are Nintendo’s estimates based on sales information provided by market research companies in each European country.
While every platform saw a slower pace of sales, Wii sales, which saw a big increase in May last year when we performed a price reduction, had a particularly large year-on-year drop.

This is a year-on-year comparison of weekly sales transitions of handheld game systems in the European market.
Nintendo 3DS had the biggest market share even before the launch of the Nintendo 3DS XL system, but it was far from satisfactory in terms of sales. However, after week 30, which corresponds to the launch of the Nintendo 3DS XL system, sales grew considerably, and the sales boost from this launch was greater than that of the markdown in the previous year’s summer. As a result, Nintendo 3DS led the European video game market in August.We succeeded in maintaining a good sales pace for Nintendo 3DS from September to the first half of October, which is usually the slowest sales season for handheld game systems. Therefore, we feel that we have laid a firm foundation upon which to accelerate sales further as we head into the year-end season.

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

Wouldn't releasing new colors/special editions help the 3DS? It certainly does in Japan, but maybe it doesn't work in the US.

 

[Kai Dracon]

Back when Mario 3D Land was revealed Nintendo had stated that there would be a 2D Mario for 3DS as well as 3D Land.

I wonder if NSMB2 was fast tracked after 3DS launch, just as 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 where in order to push as much software out on 3DS as soon as possible. This may have resulted in a pile-up effect that backfired a bit, obviously.

So long as they stick to their claim of only making one NSMB branded game per platform, it's a moot point now. No more NSMB for a long time, if ever. Further Mario or 3D/2D platforming games will probably be spaced out further or be very different from 3D Land and NSMB.

 

[ezekial45]

Guys....

Did RE ORC outpace RE6 in first month sales?

 

[Plinko]

I hope that the 3DS becomes a success. I don't want Nintendo to stop making handheld devices.

3DS is already a success.

It only looks otherwise when people erroneously try and compare it to the insane, never-to-be-seen-again sales of GBA and DS.

 

[Eusis]

So long as they stick to their claim of only making one NSMB branded game per platform, it's a moot point now. No more NSMB for a long time, if ever. Further Mario or 3D/2D platforming games will probably be spaced out further or be very different from 3D Land and NSMB.

Given how rushed these two may've been and how long it'll be until the next generation it'd be nice if they changed their tune there. Especially since they'd probably need to do something significant to differentiate it.

Though after SMG2 I'm at least somewhat hopeful for a Super Mario 3D Land 2.

3DS is already a success.

It only looks otherwise when people erroneously try and compare it to the insane, never-to-be-seen-again sales of GBA and DS.

Scratch that, when they compare to smartphones. Admittedly even with the same trajectory it probably won't get AS high purely because the market that helped bring it further isn't present, but it seems much of the doom and gloom is relative to smartphone success (... or perceived success?) even though this wasn't something people were talking about at all at this point in the GBA/DS lifespans, and you can't fairly compare a general use phone/computing device to a dedicated machine when it comes to sales, by nature the 3DS won't reach THOSE highs ever.

 

[Mpl90]

I think they should do a Super Mario 3D Land 2. Winter 2013, one year and an half after NSMB2, two years after Super Mario 3D Land. Looking at the Japanese sales, the European sales and even in US, I have a feeling a sequel could do very big. We're talking about a 3D Mario which sold higher than Super Mario 64 and which could actually DOUBLE the results of the Galaxy titles in Japan. And a title outselling weekly Mario Kart 7 in some charts.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I want to see Retro making Donkey Kong 3D Land using EAD Tokyo's base as a starting point. Nintendo has enough interesting platform IPs that I'd rather see them used first than going into direct sequels for the time being.

With SM3DL especially too, it's seems to be breaking out past the usual territory 3D Marios manage sales wise, do it may be better for the brand longer term not to rush into a sequel any time soon.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

It's also interesting that so much attention is being placed on NSMB2 falling behind NSMB sales wise while Mario Kart 7 and SM3DL significantly outpacing Mario Kart DS and SM64DS went largely unnoticed. OOT3D also outperformed Phantom Hourglass, why's it seem like 3DS software only gets brought up when it fits a certain narrative?

 

[Petrae]

Are they saying even the 3DS decreased year-over-year?

Yes. Unit sales for ALL hardware platforms were down YOY last month.

 

[electroplankton]

I think they should do a Super Mario 3D Land 2. Winter 2013, one year and an half after NSMB2, two years after Super Mario 3D Land. Looking at the Japanese sales, the European sales and even in US, I have a feeling a sequel could do very big. We're talking about a 3D Mario which sold higher than Super Mario 64 and which could actually DOUBLE the results of the Galaxy titles in Japan. And a title outselling weekly Mario Kart 7 in some charts.

Naa. Better they keep the effort for an astonishing, 3D Mario on Wii U. 3DS is fine with Mario's platforms; now, they should give space to Kirby and Donkey Kong, that are still big franchises.

 

[Currygan]

Wouldn't releasing new colors/special editions help the 3DS? It certainly does in Japan, but maybe it doesn't work in the US.

the hype level for this kind of stuff is hard to replicate, since the western market has obviously changed. Nintendo used it to corroborate sales when there already was a constant craze for all things DS. I really doubt a new colour would have a big impact nowadays, if any

 

[Road]

Are they saying even the 3DS decreased year-over-year?

3DS is down in yoy comparisons since August (price cut last year).

PS3 is having its worst year since 2007.

Xbox 360 still a bit better than 2006-2009.

Wii is behind the DS ytd.

 

[Rush2thestart]

I think they should do a Super Mario 3D Land 2. Winter 2013, one year and an half after NSMB2, two years after Super Mario 3D Land. Looking at the Japanese sales, the European sales and even in US, I have a feeling a sequel could do very big. We're talking about a 3D Mario which sold higher than Super Mario 64 and which could actually DOUBLE the results of the Galaxy titles in Japan. And a title outselling weekly Mario Kart 7 in some charts.

I strongly disagree. Nintendo relying on one brand this much is nothing but a bad thing.

What happens when theres franchise fatigue? Nintendos screwed.

 

[jcm]

Like I pointed out the trajectory seems almost exactly the same: both systems were sitting at about 21 million units sold after a year and a half, even with the roughly even split between US/Japan. The bigger problem seems to be that's ALL it's doing, rather than leaping ahead using the momentum of the DS, I remember ShockingAlberto mentioning that when the system launched surprisingly weakly. Though yeah, it'll probably help to have a 3DS revision that includes what improvements it can from the XL model to be cheaper and more comfortable. Bonus if they go for DSi sized screens rather than DS, the difference was small but it made a big difference.

The 3DS's trajectory appears to be worse than the DS's for both hardware and software. The LTD numbers are somewhat deceptive, due to the DS's slow start.

I strongly disagree. Nintendo relying on one brand this much is nothing but a bad thing.

What happens when theres franchise fatigue? Nintendos screwed.

Nintendo has several extremely strong franchises. I don't think they rely on any one single thing.

3DS is already a success.

In what way? They are losing money.

 

[electroplankton]

In what way? They are losing money.

Because of 3DS? Hardly.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I think they should do a Super Mario 3D Land 2. Winter 2013, one year and an half after NSMB2, two years after Super Mario 3D Land. Looking at the Japanese sales, the European sales and even in US, I have a feeling a sequel could do very big. We're talking about a 3D Mario which sold higher than Super Mario 64 and which could actually DOUBLE the results of the Galaxy titles in Japan. And a title outselling weekly Mario Kart 7 in some charts.

They're going to release a new 3D Mario next year for the WiiU probably and I doubt EAD Tokyo has the resources to release multiple mainline 3D Mario platformers at the same time even if it was a good idea (which it wouldn't be, that would be four Mario platforms released in just over a year which would be dumb)

 

[jcm]

Because of 3DS? Hardly.

Yes, because of 3DS. It has been a money loser thus far in its life. They appear to be turning that around, but I'd hardly call a product with a negative ROI a success. I suspect it will wind up a positive at some point, but it certainly isn't there yet.

 

[yon61]

Yes, because of 3DS. It has been a money loser thus far in its life. They appear to be turning that around, but I'd hardly call a product with a negative ROI a success. I suspect it will wind up a positive at some point, but it certainly isn't there yet.

Iwata confirmed himself that they're now making a small profit on the 3DS hardware units now, since a few months back.

 

[frankie_baby]

Yes, because of 3DS. It has been a money loser thus far in its life. They appear to be turning that around, but I'd hardly call a product with a negative ROI a success. I suspect it will wind up a positive at some point, but it certainly isn't there yet.

Its sold at a profit for the last 3 or 4 months, 3ds is all gravy from here on in, I doubt it'll be long til it shows a profit overall (though wii u launch losses may hide it for a while)

 

[Eusis]

Not to mention they DO make money off of software and licenses, thus they're likely making a decent profit on a whole now from it. Wii U will negate that for awhile though.

 

[electroplankton]

Yes, because of 3DS. It has been a money loser thus far in its life. They appear to be turning that around, but I'd hardly call a product with a negative ROI a success. I suspect it will wind up a positive at some point, but it certainly isn't there yet.

As many people already said, 3DS has not been losing money since last Summer. But I'm sure you're one of "I love my Vita" group, so I won't discuss about the issue much more than that.

 

[Mpl90]

Naa. Better they keep the effort for an astonishing, 3D Mario on Wii U. 3DS is fine with Mario's platforms; now, they should give space to Kirby and Donkey Kong, that are still big franchises.

...Effectively, Kirby and Donkey Kong should appear before another Mario platformer. Next year I'm expecting one of these two. Alongside Zelda, obviously.

 

[metalslimer]

God no, SM3DL2 would be horrible for that brand. It would make some short term money sure, but they would be doing exactly what Nintendo should have learned from the rest of the industry with overuse of IP.

 

[Mpl90]

Oh, wow. Goodbye electro. XD

 

[Eusis]

God no, SM3DL2 would be horrible for that brand. It would make some short term money sure, but they would be doing exactly what Nintendo should have learned from the rest of the industry with overuse of IP.

Perhaps a different name similar to Super Mario Bros 3 to Super Mario World, or all the 3D games BUT Galaxy 2 would be good? And make it feel/look notably different whether or not you pull that trick, the big problem is coming off as redundant, but there does seem to be untapped potential with the type of gameplay SM3DL has.

EDIT: And I AM thinking a few years from now, not rushing one out for next holiday season or whatever.

 

[GhostTrick]

God no, SM3DL2 would be horrible for that brand. It would make some short term money sure, but they would be doing exactly what Nintendo should have learned from the rest of the industry with overuse of IP.

Yeah, I think Mario should take a break, at least, until the next Mario on Wii U. I mean the 3D Mario. About 3DS, I think its time for other IP like Zelda, Yoshi, Kirby, Star Fox, Wario, Donkey Kong or something new.

 

[Rush2thestart]

The 3DS's trajectory appears to be worse than the DS's for both hardware and software. The LTD numbers are somewhat deceptive, due to the DS's slow start.




Nintendo has several extremely strong franchises. I don't think they rely on any one single thing.



In what way? They are losing money.

In the West they've been relying solely on Mario to push the 3DS.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Retro shouldn't be making Donkey Kong if Nintendo wants to try to get any PS3/360 gamers to buy the WiiU (as Retro can actually make games they would be interested in) and I don't know what other developers Nintendo has that could make DK other than EAD Tokyo who probably won't.

 

[Mpl90]

God no, SM3DL2 would be horrible for that brand. It would make some short term money sure, but they would be doing exactly what Nintendo should have learned from the rest of the industry with overuse of IP.

Yes, now that I'm thinking better about it, releasing a SM3DLand 2 in 2013 would be not so good for the brand, and neither for them, since it'd delay the 3D Mario for Wii U. I still think they should do it, maybe Fall / Winter 2014 then, while next year it should be 3D Mario Wii U time.

 

[Claymores]

Guys....

Did RE ORC outpace RE6 in first month sales?

No ORC did about 580K RE6 did 806k.

 

[alfredofroylan]

So what'd be better for the 3DS in the West? A new Pokemon or a bunch of small franchises in a constant flow? (Fire emblem, F-Zero, Luigis's, Paper, etc.)

 

[Mpl90]

So what'd be better for the 3DS in the West? A new Pokemon or a bunch of small franchises in a constant flow? (Fire emblem, F-Zero, Luigis's, Paper, etc.)

What about...both? Just like it seems it'll happen next year's first half?