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[jman2050]

I'm not outright disagreeing with you, donny2112, but I am getting a very sustaining-technology feeling from this line of argument. It feels like that moment right before an established market leader is utterly destroyed by a disruptive technology. The management for the leader keeps focused like a laser on profitable technology streams right up until the moment when the world shifts and they simply aren't anymore.

I think it's a decent bet that the existing market will be disrupted by a company making a handheld and console in one. Like what Microsoft is going to do next year, I suppose. Or what Sony could have done if they'd used the game streaming tech to make their handheld market something Nintendo and Microsoft and Apple and Google could only dream of.

Or, more likely, what Apple could do if it wanted to.

That is, Nintendo may not be able to survive by combining console and handheld in one, but the company that leads the market next could succeed by doing so from below.

You're making the same mistake others make of analyzing the Gaming industry as a tech industry and not the entertainment industry it is.

 

[donny2112]

Nintendo just couldn't do their regular franchises in addition to the new Wii ____ intellectual properties that came out.

Except, that's exactly what they did do. The reason you probably think otherwise is that they didn't play up their traditional offerings as much as the Wii * the first few years. The traditional output was absolutely there right along side the Wii * games, though, at least from Nintendo.

 

[jman2050]

That isn't really a case of a diminished franchise as it is having realistic expectations for the titles. While they undoubtedly have more improvements that normal, they are definitely seen as the traditional third versions by the public, and have been generally performing a bit better than previous titles like Platinum and Emerald. It's evidence of an upswing from the (relative) low of the third generation, not a great downfall.

To put it another way, third versions of Pokemon typically sell around the 6-8 million range, a range that I'm positive BW2 will match and possibly surpass.

 

[jvm]

You're making the same mistake others make of analyzing the Gaming industry as a tech industry and not the entertainment industry it is.

In brief, I believe you're making the mistake that the way Nintendo delivers games is always the way people will want to consume them. Stable of franchises or not, if Nintendo puts more barriers between themselves and the consumer's dollars, they will eventually lose.

And one thing that Apple and Amazon and Google have done is remove barriers.

 

[metalslimer]

In brief, I believe you're making the mistake that the way Nintendo delivers games is always the way people will want to consume them. Stable of franchises or not, if Nintendo puts more barriers between themselves and the consumer's dollars, they will eventually lose.

And one thing that Apple and Amazon and Google have done is remove barriers.

Exactly, it seems like the argument is basically just keep doing what you're doing because it's worked for a while. This is exactly the type of mentality I think Nintendo should avoid. I never I think they should try to compete tech wise, or go for 99 cents games. I said I think Nintendo should do something different and revolutionary and not sit around waiting for people to grow tired of 2d Mario and Pokemon with better graphics. I really don't think they will go for a more hybrid approach (although if Wii U fails I have no idea where they will go at all), but I don't think the next handheld will be traditional at all. Not Vita, not another smartphone, and not another DS sequel.

 

[NeonZ]

Except, that's exactly what they did do. The reason you probably think otherwise is that they didn't play up their traditional offerings as much as the Wii * the first few years. The traditional output was absolutely there right along side the Wii * games, though, at least from Nintendo.

That's what they did for the first year and part of the second, but Nintendo's schedule had a pretty big empty zone for traditional games after Smash Bros and Mario Kart were out. The Wii's sales didn't fall right there, but I think that period did a lot to damage its image among "core" or "traditional" gamers, especially when combined with the lack of relevant third party efforts.

 

[donny2112]

That's what they did for the first year and part of the second, but Nintendo's schedule had a pretty big empty zone for traditional games after Smash Bros and Mario Kart were out. The Wii's sales didn't fall right there, but I think that period did a lot to damage its image among "core" or "traditional" gamers, especially when combined with the lack of relevant third party efforts.

Yeah, "few years" is probably too broad. First 18 months, for sure, though, like you said. Fall 2008 was the turning (down) point for Wii in the U.S., though. Will never forget NOA/Reggie saying that Animal Crossing was their "core" offering in Fall 2008. They never missed RARE more than in that Fall period (BK:N&B was Fall 2008, and would've done tons better, in my opinion, with the Wii's userbase than it did with the 360's. Remember the last minute announcement of Diddy Kong Racing to "anchor" Nintendo's Fall 1997 lineup? RARE+Nintendo was a great complementary team, while it lasted.).

 

[Hero]

Yeah, "few years" is probably too broad. First 18 months, for sure, though, like you said. Fall 2008 was the turning (down) point for Wii in the U.S., though. Will never forget NOA/Reggie saying that Animal Crossing was their "core" offering in Fall 2008. They never missed RARE more than in that Fall period (BK:N&B was Fall 2008, and would've done tons better, in my opinion, with the Wii's userbase than it did with the 360's. Remember the last minute announcement of Diddy Kong Racing to "anchor" Nintendo's Fall 1997 lineup? RARE+Nintendo was a great complementary team, while it lasted.).

In combination with your previous reply to me, it's not that their total Wii output wasn't equal to their Gamecube output but it had a lot to do with timing. Like you said, that one holiday where their big game was Animal Crossing was awful, with Wii Music having been such a central focus of theirs at E3 and being the other supposedly "big" game that season really did a bit regarding public perception.

I definitely agree that the lack of strong second parties like Rare and Silicon Knights was quite apparent for the Wii generation. They filled in the "mature" audience a bit with their games that nobody else really did. Plus the fact that NoA was so reluctant to give us games like Xenoblade, Last Story, Disaster and any of the Fatal Frame games.

 

[jman2050]

In brief, I believe you're making the mistake that the way Nintendo delivers games is always the way people will want to consume them. Stable of franchises or not, if Nintendo puts more barriers between themselves and the consumer's dollars, they will eventually lose.

And one thing that Apple and Amazon and Google have done is remove barriers.

But the answer isn't necessarily "do what all your competitors are doing" which is what I keep seeing from many people.

 

[jvm]

But the answer isn't necessarily "do what all your competitors are doing" which is what I keep seeing from many people.

Any entertainment company that doesn't adapt to how technology changes the spending and leisure habits of its core consumers does so at its own peril.

Also, adding a tablet to your console's controller could be construed by some as doing things like the competition.

 

[jman2050]

Any entertainment company that doesn't adapt to how technology changes the spending and leisure habits of its core consumers does so at its own peril.

Also, adding a tablet to your console's controller could be construed by some as doing things like the competition.

I don't see how this contradicts what I just said. Nintendo isn't Apple or Google or Microsoft. The scope and organization of their company is completely different. How they adapt to changing market trends will by necessity differ drastically from how a tech company like Google or Sony does it, and whatever works for one doesn't necessarily work for the other.

 

[metalslimer]

They don't have to do what Apple or Google is doing and they shouldn't. At the same time they face a very signficant risk of becoming increasingly irrelevant by sticking to the same old.

 

[jvm]

I don't see how this contradicts what I just said. Nintendo isn't Apple or Google or Microsoft. The scope and organization of their company is completely different. How they adapt to changing market trends will by necessity differ drastically from how a tech company like Google or Sony does it, and whatever works for one doesn't necessarily work for the other.

So, tell me, what is Nintendo doing to adapt?

Your response is to say "they shouldn't do that", but I still haven't heard what they're doing or even what they should be doing.

 

[donny2112]

Also, adding a tablet to your console's controller could be construed by some as doing things like the competition.

A tablet with analog sticks and buttons and that will probably function a lot like the second screen on the DS did (e.g. maps, inventory) but yes.

 

[jman2050]

So, tell me, what is Nintendo doing to adapt?

Your response is to say "they shouldn't do that", but I still haven't heard what they're doing or even what they should be doing.

I'm not really convinced as of this moment they need to make any widespread changes at all to what they're currently doing.

 

[metalslimer]

I am interested in what other 3DS ideas Nintendo had in mind as I'm sure 3D wasn't the only idea they had in mind. I know they said they toyed around with the dual touchscreen idea which I think would have been more interesting gameplay wise than 3D.

I'm not really convinced as of this moment they need to make any widespread changes at all to what they're currently doing.

Interesting. It certainly will be something to watch how the next year plays out for them with losses they will eat from Wii U.

 

[Hero]

Any entertainment company that doesn't adapt to how technology changes the spending and leisure habits of its core consumers does so at its own peril.

Also, adding a tablet to your console's controller could be construed by some as doing things like the competition.

I don't see how it's adding a tablet because it's not a tablet, it's a touch screen and something that Nintendo before Apple or Google.

 

[jvm]

I don't see how it's adding a tablet because it's not a tablet, it's a touch screen and something that Nintendo before Apple or Google.

I won't bring up the Apple Newton.

 

[Hero]

I won't bring up the Apple Newton.

That was an era when Apple was actually an innovative underdog in the grand scheme of things.

 

[jvm]

Column up today. A bit gloomy. In case you want to read it:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/181343/Not_even_November_can_save_US_game_retail_now.php


Also, didn't end up using this image:

 

[Massa]

Also, didn't end up using this image:

The Wii U should have come out two years ago.

 

[donny2112]

Column up today.

Unless Microsoft's hardware and service plan really takes off in the next month, this will be the worst year for the company's console since 2009, the year prior to the introduction of Kinect.

And at least as importantly if not more, 360 Slim.

Nintendo's revamped Wii with a lower price and new bundles doesn't appear to have much traction in the market (which should come as no surprise).

While I doubt it'll make a big difference, it was only mostly available at the tail end of the reporting period and only widely available after the October NPD period ended.

And Sony's handheld is just now crawling across the 800,000 unit mark and probably won't make it to a million by year's end.

Can't see that happening. Maybe not cross 1 million with November's data (though it may), but it should definitely cross it with December. Remember, there's a large segment of the market that historically only really looks for console hardware in the Christmas season. See Dec-2009 Wii vs. the rest of 2009 (and following in 2010) for Wii as a clear example of that.

Also, did you mention the 360 price drop? Didn't recall seeing it.

 

[Vinci]

When discussing the 3DS, it's important to keep in mind that a product can simply - on its own, free of any competitive relationships - be unappealing to people. The 3DS is not as interesting to the mainstream consumer in the West as the DS was, and it's quite possible that the Wii U will suffer similarly compared to the Wii. The 3DS doesn't differentiate itself enough, and thus doesn't provide extensive points of differentiation within its software spectrum to really excite a larger audience.

People love to lay Sony and Nintendo's struggles at Apple's feet, but there have been products that failed spectacularly for hundreds of years. There have been products which just sort of hung around and never really caught on the same way as others for hundreds of years. For some reason, people are driven to believe that failing or struggling products fail or struggle on account of some bogeyman - some powerful entity that is eating all the goodies itself and leaving nothing but crumbs for the rest. Does this happen? Of course, but it's far from being the only reason and people should really ask themselves whether the product, as presented, is worth paying attention to on its own? The DS was novel and distinct. Touch was, at the time, fresh and new. 3D's proponents have struggled to make it valued by the mainstream public for decades. Guess what? The public, by and large, is indifferent.

The one thing Nintendo could and should learn from firms such as Apple and Google is when it comes to distribution of content. They should, by all means, make purchasing their products as easy as possible for people. Because the truth remains: Nintendo is the #1 developer and publisher of video games in the world. They have the content and the IPs to take on anyone. What they need to ensure is that people are able to easily access them and perceive the price as being reasonable, but also that each hardware they release allows them to expand upon these experiences in meaningful ways.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

So, tell me, what is Nintendo doing to adapt?

Your response is to say "they shouldn't do that", but I still haven't heard what they're doing or even what they should be doing.

Day and date digital for their games is one notable step forward, they're now exploring paid dlc and they've put a lot more effort into lower priced digital only efforts than on Wii/DSi. Nintendo's also incentivising a digital shift with both 3rd parties (lowered license fees, promotional funding) and retailers (eShop game cards/codes). Nintendo's not exactly doing nothing, even if they're not following the iOS/Android race to the bottom model.

 

[allan-bh]

Good Column jvm. You have hardware estimates for october?

 

[jvm]

Good Column jvm. You have hardware estimates for october?

Will post later.

donny2112, great comments as usual. I will re-read when I get back online.

 

[donny2112]

Just realized something. The Skylanders bundle that Microsoft was finally taking your advice on to do for Black Friday is the old Skylanders game and not the new Skylanders Giants. (link) Oops. :lol

Looks like Wii is the only console doing a bundle with Skylander's Giants, then. Wonder how many people who already have Skylanders will buy the Wal-Mart 360 bundle and not realize they're buying the game they already have?

Edit:
Worth noting that the Wii bundle with the new game and the 360 bundle with the old game are the same price. $150

 

[bigtroyjon]

Just realized something. The Skylanders bundle that Microsoft was finally taking your advice on to do for Black Friday is the old Skylanders game and not the new Skylanders Giants. (link) Oops. :lol

Looks like Wii is the only console doing a bundle with Skylander's Giants, then. Wonder how many people who already have Skylanders will buy the Wal-Mart 360 bundle and not realize they're buying the game they already have?

Edit:
Worth noting that the Wii bundle with the new game and the 360 bundle with the old game are the same price. $150

Why would they be buying a 360 and starter pack if they already have the game and console? wouldn't they just buy the stand alone game?

 

[Mpl90]

Given this graph

And the estimates we have from Nintendo's Firts Half Investor Meeting

For reference. Pixel counting the US chart gives me:

PS3
Jan - 195K
Feb - 347K
Mar - 334K
Apr - 172K
May - 130K
Jun - 188K
Jul - 141K
Aug - 142K
Sep - 201K
------------
YTD - 1849K

3DS
Jan - 170K
Feb - 263K
Mar - 225K
Apr - 128K
May - 116K
Jun - 160K
Jul - 129K
Aug - 179K
Sep - 243K
------------
YTD - 1612K

WII
Jan - 152K
Feb - 224K
Mar - 176K
Apr - 91K
May - 71K
Jun - 95K
Jul - 69K
Aug - 60K
Sep - 77K
------------
YTD - 1014K

PSV
Feb - 225K
Mar - 213K
Apr - 73K
May - 53K
Jun - 78K
Jul - 49K
Aug - 34K
Sep - 56K
------------
YTD - 782K

Not sure how close that is to our current estimates from NPD thread detective work. I didn't do the 360 as those numbers are already in the public anyway. (EDIT: Should have probably rounded to nearest 5K; meh)

We should be able to extrapolate this months' estimates, no?

 

[A Human Becoming]

Will post later.

Oh so you respond to HIS posts, but not mine.

Given this graph

And the estimates we have from Nintendo's Firts Half Investor Meeting



We should be able to extrapolate this months' estimates, no?

That graph isn't very percise.
As a note, here were the changes I made for YTD with those Nintendo estimates used:

PS3: +10k
Wii: -13k
3DS: +12K
Vita: +6k

Props to jvm for being so accurate. Most of my numbers were from him.

 

[jvm]

Oh so you respond to HIS posts, but not mine.

Sorry, dude. You know I love everyone here equally.

That graph isn't very percise.

By design.

Finally, here is where I'm coming down on hardware. Again, these are unofficial figures, and rounded to the nearest 5K.
Xbox 360: 270K
3DS: 245K
PS3: 170K
NDS: 110K
Wii: 45K
PSV: 35K
PSP: 10K

 

[allan-bh]

Finally, here is where I'm coming down on hardware. Again, these are unofficial figures, and rounded to the nearest 5K.
Xbox 360: 270K
3DS: 245K
PS3: 170K
NDS: 110K
Wii: 45K
PSV: 35K
PSP: 10K

3DS better than I expected.

 

[Mpl90]

Basically, 3DS did like last year. And better than last month! Now we know what Iwata meant with that "better"!

 

[CrunchinJelly]

Basically, 3DS did like last year. And better than last month! Now we know what Iwata meant with that "better"!

How's the software

 

[Mpl90]

Wii and DS O_O for entirely different reasons.

@jvm: Nintendo corrected the 3DS TTM for September 2012, here it it

Mario Kart 7
Super Mario 3D Land
New Super Mario Bros. 2
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
Pokémon Rumble Blast
Kid Icarus: Uprising
Sonic Generations
Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance]

I'm posting it now since they'll change it soon with the October 2012 TTM

 

[jvm]

Wii and DS O_O for entirely different reasons.

@jvm: Nintendo corrected the 3DS TTM for September 2012, here it it

Mario Kart 7
Super Mario 3D Land
New Super Mario Bros. 2
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
Pokémon Rumble Blast
Kid Icarus: Uprising
Sonic Generations
Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance]

I'm posting it now since they'll change it soon with the October 2012 TTM

Ooooooh. Thanks. I had forgotten to go back and see what was up. You're a hero.

 

[MasterSheen]

What would a good baseline be for 3DS for sales to be considered decent?

 

[donny2112]

Why would they be buying a 360 and starter pack if they already have the game and console? wouldn't they just buy the stand alone game?

Good question. If they don't already have the console, then starting on the older game may be fine. Maybe they enjoyed it, and they're buying it as a gift for someone else to have the system + game the buyer has already enjoyed? Reasons for bundles are weird to figure out, sometimes. The Wii bundle would be for those who tried it out with someone else and then wanted to jump on the new hotness instead of the old and busted, then?

 

[allan-bh]

What would a good baseline be for 3DS for sales to be considered decent?

I think current level is decent, but not good.

For me 3DS should be above 300k.

 

[Frankfurter]

Sorry, dude. You know I love everyone here equally.

By design.

Finally, here is where I'm coming down on hardware. Again, these are unofficial figures, and rounded to the nearest 5K.
Xbox 360: 270K
3DS: 245K
PS3: 170K
NDS: 110K
Wii: 45K
PSV: 35K
PSP: 10K

Imo that's pretty solid for 3DS actually.

 

[Mpl90]

I think current level is decent, but not good.

For me 3DS should be above 300k.

It'd probably be over 300k without DS still selling due to the price cut.

 

[Rush2thestart]

Wii and DS O_O for entirely different reasons.

@jvm: Nintendo corrected the 3DS TTM for September 2012, here it it

Mario Kart 7
Super Mario 3D Land
New Super Mario Bros. 2
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
Pokémon Rumble Blast
Kid Icarus: Uprising
Sonic Generations
Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance]

I'm posting it now since they'll change it soon with the October 2012 TTM

Anyway to deduce software sales from that list? Really curious to see how Kid Icarus, Sonic Generations and KH sales.

 

[jcm]

I think current level is decent, but not good.

For me 3DS should be above 300k.

What did the DS sell in the comparable October?

 

[A Human Becoming]

By design.

I realize that, just pointing out it's lack of precision means extrapolated number would be unreliable.

Finally, here is where I'm coming down on hardware. Again, these are unofficial figures, and rounded to the nearest 5K.
Xbox 360: 270K
3DS: 245K
PS3: 170K
NDS: 110K
Wii: 45K
PSV: 35K
PSP: 10K

Thanks. 3DS is performing well IMO. Vita is lol
If I was a Vita owner I would worry about the future of the platform.

 

[sphinx]

Sorry, dude. You know I love everyone here equally.

By design.

Finally, here is where I'm coming down on hardware. Again, these are unofficial figures, and rounded to the nearest 5K.
Xbox 360: 270K
3DS: 245K
PS3: 170K
NDS: 110K
Wii: 45K
PSV: 35K
PSP: 10K

so, to set things straight, these are the most accurate unofficial hardware figures we are gonna get this month, rigth??

 

[Spiegel]

Anyway to deduce software sales from that list? Really curious to see how Kid Icarus, Sonic Generations and KH sales.

In the last 12 months ( October 2011 - September 2012):

Mario Kart 7
Super Mario 3D Land
New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 540k
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
Pokémon Rumble Blast
Kid Icarus: Uprising
Sonic Generations
Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance] - 225k + September number. Unknown in September but probably not much more than 25k considering it was nº3 for the month and nº5 (Angry Birds Trilogy did <23k)

- Anihawk said that Sonic Generations LTD was KH3D first month + 25k but I now wonder if he meant KH (August + September) + 25k

Poor RE:R. And SSFIV must still be the best selling 3rd party game with ~350-400k

 

[jvm]

What did the DS sell in the comparable October?

Two comparisons. The 3DS is in its 20th month, second October.

20th Month (June 2006): 594K
24th Month (October 2006): 360K

June 2006 was NDS Lite launch.

 

[metalslimer]

Two comparisons. The 3DS is in its 20th month, second October.

20th Month (June 2006): 594K
24th Month (October 2006): 360K

June 2006 was NDS Lite launch.

Not horrible, but 2007 is where the DS comparison will get nasty not this year. People like to say NSMB and the DS Lite made the DS explode, but 2007 with Pokemon that year really shot it into the sky.

 

[jman2050]

Not horrible, but 2007 is where the DS comparison will get nasty not this year. People like to say NSMB and the DS Lite made the DS explode, but 2007 with Pokemon that year really shot it into the sky.

It's going to be very interesting to see how Nintendo schedules the 3DS Pokemon games next year, assuming they're actually coming at that point.

 

[A Human Becoming]

so, to set things straight, these are the most accurate unofficial hardware figures we are gonna get this month, rigth??

Most likely. Remember that jvm is the Nate Silver of predicting hardware numbers, even without using an algorithm!