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[dragonbane]

For a full priced game without marketing and only 4 days of tracking it's amazing it managed to pull next to rare's $30 collection and full month tracking.

Spoiler

optimist

Can definitely see Microsoft doing a "holiday price drop" to $300 like they did last year especially if they lose October.

As for Until Dawn, it's a Heavy Rain/Beyond Souls type game and 90% of those who own a PS4 will most likely stay away from the game so I think 90K is pretty good in only five days of tracking and zero advertising.

Heavy Rain pretty much had the exact same conditions. 6 days of tracking, barely any advertising by SCEA. Yet it did 220k. Of course digital wasnt a thing and the install base was larger as well probably.

 

[Chobel]

Think like a businessman and you'll see why.

It's game of profit, not units moved

More units moved = more profits from software sales and subscriptions. Not mention a higher chance for Morpheus to succeed when it launches next year.

 

[ethomaz]

lol

The Star Wars PS4 bundle got sold out two times already at Amazon... thanks they are restocking fast.

 

[noobie]

I have it on good authority that this message has been relayed to all Xbox employees, there is tension in the air for sure.

Win October or you are all fired.

i think it may back fire and some people might be more busy in applying for other opportunities.

 

[jmaine_ph]

Why would you exclude all the deals PS4 had last month?

Nothing like what Xbox had. Including a game apart of the "best" Xbox line up ever.

 

[watdaeff4]

More units moved = more profits from software sales and subscriptions. Not mention a higher chance for Morpheus to succeed when it launches next year.

Depends.

What is the cost to Sony of the console? How many more units would move if it was priced at $349 or $299? How many of those "extra" buyers would subscribe to PS+? How many games would they buy? How many of this looking for $100 off a PS4 would be willing to lay down the $$$ that Morpheus is going to cost just one year later?

There are a lot of factors that I'm willing to bet they have some market analysis for.

 

[Buntachan]

Heavy Rain pretty much had the exact same conditions. 6 days of tracking, barely any advertising by SCEA. Yet it did 220k. Of course digital wasnt a thing and the install base was larger as well probably.

Yes, PS3 was 3.5 years old when Heavy Rain was launched.
PS4 is 1.5, almost 2 years old when Until Dawn launched.

I do recall a fair bit more hype for Heavy Rain than Until Dawn though, and at the time game portal websites like IGN and 1UP played a much larger role in exposing new games. HR was technically stunning in some shots, and got a bunch of press from that as well. Also, despite his reputation here, or maybe because of it, David Cage games get eyeballs on it because of his previous work on Omikron and Farenheit.

Supermassive don't have the history, didn't get as much attention from various channels.. I'd say they got off to a good start and can build on it if they continue building these products.

Heck, I saw that https://twitter.com/haydenpanettier didn't even tweet about the game at launch, and she must've cost some coin.

 

[ethomaz]

Nothing like what Xbox had. Including a game apart of the "best" Xbox line up ever.

To be fair (not a response for you directly)...

The PS4 Madden deal was to counter the Xbone Madden Bundle.

And the HUGE Xbone TV deal were what made the gap be so low... without these BIG sales I guess MS can't hold with Sony in sales numbers even in US.

 

[RiccochetJ]

Really happy to see that Until Dawn charted. That game was a fun experience.

 

[yukianderson]

lol

The Star Wars PS4 bundle got sold out two times already at Amazon... thanks they are restocking fast.

I think Sony has Nov lock down and probably díc too. They still have the COD bundle to announce...

 

[watdaeff4]

i think it may back fire and some people might be more busy in applying for other opportunities.

You might want to check your sarcasm detector.

 

[Etnos]

There's no way to gauge that properly until the price point for the PS4 is remotely comparable. We're comparing the PS4's sales to consoles that were $199 (PS2) and $249 (Wii) respectively, this point in their life cycles. That's a massive price gulf comparative to the PS4 ($399).

1st- You can't compare prices like that before taking inflation into the equation

2nd - There is more people now that back in the 90s, there are more open markets now that back then, even if the PS4 match PS2 lifetime sales that would imply the market shrink

 

[Buntachan]

2nd - There is more people now that back in the 90s, there are more open markets now that back then, even if the PS4 match PS2 lifetime sales that would imply the market shrink

Wait.. what..? Even if PS4 sold as much as PS2, because there are more people in the world today than before, this means the market has shrunk..?

I think you're trying to say the % of console gamers in the population is going down, but that's distinct from the absolute market size. Your 2nd point is incorrect.

 

[watdaeff4]

I think Sony has Nov lock down and probably díc too. They still have the COD bundle to announce...

Yep. I think PS4 sales in Nov. are going to be massive. It'll be interes.......intriquing to see what MS does to try to stay in the same ballpark.

EDIT: I may be off-base, but with how they priced the Halo 5 bundle, I"m not for sure we are going to see the same sales for XB1 this year as we did last year. We'll see. I'm just really surprised they are pricing that at $500.

 

[PdotMichael]

Are we expecting that any deals from Microsoft will have the same effect as last year?

 

[Etnos]

I think you're trying to say the % of console gamers in the population is going down, but that's distinct from the absolute market size. Your 2nd point is incorrect.

Market size (meaning sales) may be the same, but it is relative smaller to what it used to be.... meaning is not growing, not good.

 

[ethomaz]

Are we expecting that any deals from Microsoft will have the same effect as last year?

Yes. MS will go crazy for holidays but I guess Sony will do better this holiday than last holiday.

 

[inner-G]

That Star Wars bundle is going to be fuckin' huge.

SW is going to be the hot shit this holiday and the game looks badass to boot

 

[slavesnyder]

Was there any PR Statement from MS or Sony? Too lazy to read all pages I missed. Thanks.

 

[A.J.]

Tough break for PW3. No more physical release for the US then I guess. Until Dawn did okay. Rare Replay, I'm surprised didn't do better considering the price and the time released.

 

[m@cross]

Yes. MS will go crazy for holidays but I guess Sony will do better this holiday than last holiday.

I don't think Sony could do worse than last year as far as marketing and promotions. It wasn't terrible mind you, but MS went guns blazing for obvious reasons.

The Star Wars bundle alone will move a ton of units. If they also drop price $50 or so, mall cops may die int he wave of people.

 

[Curufinwe]

Halo did well even on the first xbox and there's no way XBONE is going to sell less then XB

None of that means Halo 5 will definitely outsell Uncharted 4 worldwide.

 

[PdotMichael]

Yes. MS will go crazy for holidays but I guess Sony will do better this holiday than last holiday.

Well, I don't think that MS will got completly nuts for holidays but with all the deals the past 12 months I don't think that a similiar deal like last year will lead to the same increase of sales.

 

[StarBlazers1]

MS will do some deals for the holiday for sure. But I think people are underestimating the effect of BC on potential buyers. If MS gets the mix of the first wave of BC games right, you'll see a large migration to the XB1.

 

[slavesnyder]

MS will do some deals for the holiday for sure. But I think people are underestimating the effect of BC on potential buyers. If MS gets the mix of the first wave of BC games right, you'll see a large migration to the XB1.

BC? No way that's a thing.

 

[StarBlazers1]

BC? No way that's a thing.

HAHA! didn't make that connection. Of course BC=Backwards Compatibility.

 

[Mory Dunz]

This argument "it's just X days, let's wait next month" is a very old excuse in NPD threads and usually leads to disappointment.

This.


The only time it was proven right recently was splatoon I believe. And Splatoon is splatoon.

Didnt people try to use it for bayo2 too? Lol

 

[Guymelef]

I smile every time somebody mentions BC as a big sales factor.

 

[slavesnyder]

HAHA! didn't make that connection. Of course BC=Backwards Compatibility.

Of course backwards compatibility. What else?
I don't think that this is the message MS will waste any marketing efford on.
It's all about the new games. Not playing the old ones (except remakes).

 

[StarBlazers1]

I smile every time somebody mentions BC as a big sales factor.

You should, because while it's not a big factor to most of us on GAF, it is to the many people who have a huge game library and when choosing between 2 very similar consoles for their kids, having one play games already bought could be a deciding factor.

 

[slavesnyder]

This.


The only time it was proven right recently was splatoon I believe. And Splatoon is splatoon.

Didnt people try to use it for bayo2 too? Lol

Until dawn will have better legs than a typical action game i guess. Story driven games age more gracefully.

 

[cebri.one]

It's turning out to be a pretty long preseason.

 

[slavesnyder]

You should, because while it's not a big factor to most of us on GAF, it is to the many people who have a huge game library and when choosing between 2 very similar consoles for their kids, having one play games already bought could be a deciding factor.

Thanks dad for being able to play old stuff. My friends will laugh at me. You don't love me.

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

Nothing like what Xbox had. Including a game apart of the "best" Xbox line up ever.

Still no reason to exclude those, like the ones I linked on previous page. Both had good deals, that's a fact.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

MS will do some deals for the holiday for sure. But I think people are underestimating the effect of BC on potential buyers. If MS gets the mix of the first wave of BC games right, you'll see a large migration to the XB1.

2 years into the generation?

BC is not going to make much of a dent. Shit, it's not even full BC, just some select titles.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Until dawn will have better legs than a typical action game i guess. Story driven games age more gracefully.

So...what?
Maybe a 50% drop then instead of 70-80?

45k it is.

Unless people are really expecting it to sell more in Sept than Aug...?

 

[small44]

Anybody know how much sold each games from Uncharted and Halo IP's?

 

[A Human Becoming]

So, if I paged through this thread and the last results thread correctly:

             3DS 2015  PSP 2009  NDS 2009  3DS 2014
     January       74       172       510        97
     February     395       199       588       153
     March        265       168       563       159
     April        116       116      1040       106
     May           97       100       633        97
     June         124*      163       766       152
     July         104       123       539       108
     August       77        140       552        91
     September              190       524       140
     October                174       457       138
     November               293      1700       515
     December               654      3310       810
     Through 
     August       1252      1181     5191       964

     Total                 2492     11182      2566

I don't know where that number came from, but thank you!

 

[pixelation]

Well, I don't think that MS will got completly nuts for holidays but with all the deals the past 12 months I don't think that a similiar deal like last year will lead to the same increase of sales.

Interesting point you make.

 

[demosthenes]

MS will do some deals for the holiday for sure. But I think people are underestimating the effect of BC on potential buyers. If MS gets the mix of the first wave of BC games right, you'll see a large migration to the XB1.

I don't think bc matters at all this holiday season.

 

[Bits N Pieces]

I smile every time somebody mentions BC as a big sales factor.

I smile every time somebody else smiles when they mentions BC as a big sales factor.

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

I don't think bc matters at all this holiday season.

Yep, I think it just one more plus to get Xbox One. Maybe in beginning of Gen it would have been bigger thing.

 

[slavesnyder]

Yep, I think it just one more plus to get Xbox One. Maybe in beginning of Gen it would have been bigger thing.

This for sure.

 

[Bits N Pieces]

I don't think bc matters at all this holiday season.

Depends how they position it? If there is no fanfare or marketing then it will mean zilch, nada. If however they have TV adverts for say Halo 5 or Tomb Raider and at the end they say "and Xbox is the ONLY new console you can play the older games in these franchises" or something (I dont work in marketing) and really make BC a selling point then it might move the needle a bit? Thoughts?

 

[ethomaz]

I agree with GAFers here.

BC was supposed to be HUGE in November 2013.

Today is just a nice feature to have but not gamer changer.

PS. I have my PS3 with dozen of games in back log and I didn't turn it on this year because I play only the PS4 games (I already have back log too)... so BC is just for few guys.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Think like a businessman and you'll see why.

It's game of profit, not units moved

Yes, but units moved --> software moved --> PSN memberships rising == higher chance of getting more software created for you without throwing lots of money hats and higher chance of retaining users for the next generation.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

I agree with GAFers here.

BC was supposed to be HUGE in November 2013.

Today is just a nice feature to have but not gamer changer.

PS. I have my PS3 with dozen of games in back log and I didn't turn it on this year because I play only the PS4 games (I already have back log too)... so BC is just for few guys.

If BC worked like Wii and PS3 I'd agree completely, but this BC is fully integrated in a way where you can use all the features of the XB1. It doesn't reboot into a BC mode like previous BC solutions. You actually have access to all your games within the new ecosystem so it's really impressive. Streaming, screenshots, recording, friends, party chat, snap, notifications, etc... all that stuff works. The problem is getting that info across to consumers in a way that makes them interested. I'm not sure it can be done in a way to truly show what's so cool about Xbox's BC solution.

 

[Kill3r7]

I agree with GAFers here.

BC was supposed to be HUGE in November 2013.

Today is just a nice feature to have but not gamer changer.

PS. I have my PS3 with dozen of games in back log and I didn't turn it on this year because I play only the PS4 games (I already have back log too)... so BC is just for few guys.

If BC was a game changer the big 3 would have figured out a way to include it. MS is trying to make sure that current 360 owners migrate to X1 instead of PS4. I guess it could have some benefit there but ultimately BC is mostly fan service. I am certainly glad that I will be able to play most of my old games on the X1. So, I can finally retire the 360 but I don't think the feature is a game changer. That said, I do think moving forward, as people become more invested in digital games/libraries, that there will be a push to have our current PS4/X1/WiiU digital libraries playable on the next generation of consoles.

 

[hawk2025]

If BC worked like Wii and PS3 I'd agree completely, but this BC is fully integrated in a way where you can use all the features of the XB1. It doesn't reboot into a BC mode like previous BC solutions. You actually have access to all your games within the new ecosystem so it's really impressive. Streaming, screenshots, recording, friends, party chat, snap, notifications, etc... all that stuff works. The problem is getting that info across to consumers in a way that makes them interested. I'm not sure it can be done in a way to truly show what's so cool about Xbox's BC solution.

I doubt they would sell boxes because of the way they are integrated with BC.

Having a robust offering of compatible games is orders of magnitude more important than extraneous stuff like snapping, and the feature is launching with a fairly limited list of games. The type of late adopter that might be swayed by BC two years into the generation is not the type of customer that thinks streaming old games to Twitch or taking screenshots is a particularly interesting feature.

 

[ethomaz]

If BC worked like Wii and PS3 I'd agree completely, but this BC is fully integrated in a way where you can use all the features of the XB1. It doesn't reboot into a BC mode like previous BC solutions. You actually have access to all your games within the new ecosystem so it's really impressive. Streaming, screenshots, recording, friends, party chat, snap, notifications, etc... all that stuff works. The problem is getting that info across to consumers in a way that makes them interested. I'm not sure it can be done in a way to truly show what's so cool about Xbox's BC solution.

That doesn't matter.

The few guys wants to play a BC game will play whatever it is integrated or not... most of guys will always prefer to play the new Destiny, MGS, CoD, Halo, etc instead to use BC.

BC today is a nice but useless feature that less than 5% of the console owners will use.

It was suppose to be good at launch because you don't have games to play.