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NPD Sales Results for February 2010

Son of Godzilla said:
Examples?
Darkwatch and Forza would be the first ones that come to my mind.

racing games were a bit of a cheat because they're all trying to simulate the same thing... but we certainly would never think to complain that the controls and mechanics are the same.
 

Mrbob

Member
The PC retail of Bioshock 2 probably did peanuts though. Don't know why someone would get the retail PC when a lot of the digital sites were doing some great sales on it. There is still a steam 4 pack available where it comes out to about 37 bucks a copy. The PC retail sku probably brought forth to appease some countries in Europe more than anything. That is where you will see some decent retail numbers. Might as well ship some of them with the other copies in NA anyway and see what you can get.

I found some numbers for bioshock 1:

http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/news/34271/BioShock-Best-Selling-PC-Game-of-August

360 version sold around 490K, PC version 77K for the first month. Now I really want to see the digital PC numbers, as I doubt the retail version of Bio 2 sold that well.

I wonder what 2k expectations were for Bioshock 2. I suppose they can't be too happy with PS3 numbers, but at the same time it is their own fault. When you don't cultivate the community on the system it is tough to bring them along for the ride on a sequel.
 

Evlar

Banned
plagiarize said:
i don't get why it's anecdotal to throw a wide variety of zip codes into websites that try to locate the nearest system, and to find almost nowhere in stock across the country.

how is that 'anecdotal'?
Probably because the method isn't documented or proven out through a statistical model to provide reliable data within a range of error. It also doesn't account for other sources of noise (retailers not accurately reporting their stock situation through their online tools, the pool of available units collecting at retailers hidden from online channel checks, etc.) It's not scientific and therefore not as reliable as NPD data.

EDIT: I do think the method you mention has its uses- it gives us a picture of what is going on when statistical studies aren't available- but we shouldn't assign them the same usefulness as NPD, etc. That's the slippery slope which leads to "Chartz" syndrome.
 

LosDaddie

Banned
Good month all around. I'm happy to see NSMB Wii (my 2009 GotY), Mass Effect 2 (RPG perfected, IMO) and MW2 still selling strong! :D

Great sales for X360 too. Having a YoY increase is always good and it doesn't matter one bit if PS3 & Wii supply was constrained or not. And really, the PS3 having a YoY increase too is great news for Sony, not so much for Sony fanboys though.

This thread, however, has been disappointing. Not enough GIFs or meltdowns.



Rat Salad said:
Oh c'mon,were not talking about its quality. It was pretty apparent that many at Gaf wanted the game to fail,there were threads on that game that were slanderfests,way before it was even released. Because it was a direct clone off of Sony's upcoming God of War it set off that crowd where they had to slander it every chance they got. Their "reasoning" behind their cricitcism may have seemed legit in their eyes,but the constant trollingof the game was a dead give away that it was the usual agenda at work once again.

Which is like I said,. In the end the forum through a tantrum over this game, for no real reason other than it had very good marketing behind it,and because of this it somehow violated stepping on Sony's toes for playing very similar to GOW. It was a decent game,but this forum made it sound like it was a total p.o.s.,which it certainly wasn't.

Agreed on all points. The reasoning for trolling DI was blatant (at least to me). Personally, I thought DI was a solid game....worthy of at least a rent.



Subitai said:
When did this thread become about next month. :lol

Pretty much when Sony reported the PS3 would be supply constrained. Expect this to continue until Sony announces that PS3 shipments are back to normal.
 

Averon

Member
racerx said:
no. Any other month, gow3 would do like 500k, but next month is damn competitive.

Sorry, but there's no way GoW3 is doing anything less than 500k and even that's low-balling it. Competition or no competition. GoW2 sold well over 800k in March 2007 and you're saying GoW3 is lucky to even pass 300K? FFXIII and BFBC2 won't pull nearly that many buyers from GoW3.
 
EazyB said:
Really? You think people are going to stop making traditional games as a result of Heavy Rain? Developments in the joke that is storytelling in videogames is going to be altered in any way by Heavy Rain's success?

Seems to me like people that didn't enjoy the experience are butthurt that many other did. That's fine, you guys have all the right in the world to dislike it, but passing it off as anything greater than that is just ridiculous. If anything, it's shitty cash in titles like Dante's Inferno and Bioshock 2 plague the industry a lot more than people trying to throw something new and different into a console, regardless of how widespread its appeal may be or how well it's executed.
I think that Heavy Rain is part of a much wider trend in videogames to provide "movielike!" and "cinematic!" experiences that are more simplistic and pandering than their predecessors. I also think this trend is harming a new and fragile medium, one that rarely plays to its unique strengths (variability and interactivity), and which more often rips off the techniques and tools of film and television. And it typically rips them off badly.

Heavy Rain isn't something new or different at all. It is basically a turbocharged Dragon's Lair. Something like Westwood's Blade Runner from 13 years ago is a better example of how to create a branching, seemingly reactive "storyworld" with fairly minimal player involvement... although crucially it has more player involvement -- and requires more thought and more puzzle-solving -- than Heavy Rain. As a bonus, Blade Runner also tells a reasonably coherent and "adult" story, while managing to incorporate its game elements for the most part unobtrusively. Heavy Rain struggles (I would say downright fails) on both counts.

This revamped QTE devilry, and -- God forbid -- the games that follow it, represent as much of a dead end as those "interactive" FMV games we dabbled with in the mid-90s (e.g. The Daedalus Encounter, starring Tia Carrere!), and I pray it (or they!) come to be recognized as such. I can't decide which is more disappointing -- that a game where the, y'know, game elements are completely perfunctory couldn't sham out even the semblance of a half-decent movie in compensation, or that journalists and gamers across the Internet bought the Kool-Aid and praised it for its intelligence and maturity.
 

FrankT

Member
Mrbob said:
The PC retail of Bioshock 2 probably did peanuts though. Don't know why someone would get the retail PC when a lot of the digital sites were doing some great sales on it. There is still a steam 4 pack available where it comes out to about 37 bucks a copy. The PC retail sku probably brought forth to appease some countries in Europe more than anything. That is where you will see some decent retail numbers. Might as well ship some of them with the other copies in NA anyway and see what you can get.

I found some numbers for bioshock 1:

http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/news/34271/BioShock-Best-Selling-PC-Game-of-August

360 version sold around 490K, PC version 77K for the first month. Now I really want to see the digital PC numbers, as I doubt the retail version of Bio 2 sold that well.

I wonder what 2k expectations were for Bioshock 2. I suppose they can't be too happy with PS3 numbers, but at the same time it is their own fault. When you don't cultivate the community on the system it is tough to bring them along for the ride on a sequel.

The expectation was 5 million which they don't have a shot at ever crossing.
 

dolemite

Member
Gamesindustry is brutally honest about the PSP in the US:
There were no such excuses for the PSP though, which is now in real danger of being overtaken by the PlayStation 2, at 133,400 unit sales to 101,900.
 

Zen

Banned
racerx said:
yes, because the cag community is a discerning bunch. They know that the ps3 version for ff13 is better, so they'll go for that one. People buying one game on one Platform over the other gets accentuated on cag.


You're basing this off of CAG? How does this mean that the 360 version will sell closer than the preorders suggest.

racerx said:
no. Any other month, gow3 would do like 500k, but next month is damn competitive.

I'll make a bet for your Avatar versus mine that it does cross 300k.
 

FrankT

Member
dolemite said:
If they can sell the initial shipment (3 million), it will be great for the title anyway.

That's a big if at this point. Let's say it doubled the sales in Europe that would mean after first month they would need to sell another 1.5 million matching. Possible but I doubt it.
 

dolemite

Member
LosDaddie said:
Pretty much when Sony reported the PS3 would be supply constrained. Expect this to continue until Sony announces that PS3 shipments are back to normal.
The rumor is "Not before May"
football-fumble.gif
 

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
Didn't even know the Battlefield Bad Company series was so popular, first time I heard of it when my friend got it for his birthday, and was like "what the hell is this game?" :p
 
Evlar said:
Probably because the method isn't documented or proven out through a statistical model to provide reliable data within a range of error. It also doesn't account for other sources of noise (retailers not accurately reporting their stock situation through their online tools, the pool of available units collecting at retailers hidden from online channel checks, etc.) It's not scientific and therefore not as reliable as NPD data.

EDIT: I do think the method you mention has its uses- it gives us a picture of what is going on when statistical studies aren't available- but we shouldn't assign them the same usefulness as NPD, etc. That's the slippery slope which leads to "Chartz" syndrome.
it's still not anecdotal though. it is repeatable and testable by anyone.

i don't assign stocking information the same weight as NPD, but when we have people who still refuse to believe that the PS3 and Wii are woefully understocked right now, and there's no authority with the weight of the NPD to confirm or deny, such things are as good as we have.

i mean, i'd put it way above Amazon rankings and Chartz etc, and 'slippery slope' arguments remain logical fallacies.
 

Money

Banned
Just wanted to say I'm really happy for Heavy Rain...and Sony has to be planning something for the PSP...right??? Maybe they are waiting until E3
 

Evlar

Banned
plagiarize said:
it's still not anecdotal though. it is repeatable and testable by anyone.

i don't assign stocking information the same weight as NPD, but when we have people who still refuse to believe that the PS3 and Wii are woefully understocked right now, and there's no authority with the weight of the NPD to confirm or deny, such things are as good as we have.

i mean, i'd put it way above Amazon rankings and Chartz etc, and 'slippery slope' arguments remain logical fallacies.
I would put it above them, too. I think we agree, really. I'm just trying to be very careful to separate the best-quality data we have- NPD and manufacturer's quarterly reports- from the second-quality data we have, like the online channel checks.
 

EagleEyes

Member
Congrats to the the 360 for having its best Jan. and Feb. ever. Its hard to believe that after 5 years the console is still selling so well. How many 360 consoles have been sold compared to the original xbox?
 

radjago

Member
Arpharmd B said:
I think it still would have been edged out by 360, just because Mass Effect, Bioshock, and MW2 are pushing the console this month.
Were one console exclusive released in January and two multiplat titles that lean heavily 360 really enough to push it to the top this month? What else happened?
 

FrankT

Member
EagleEyes said:
Congrats to the the 360 for having its best Jan. and Feb. ever. Its hard to believe that after 5 years the console is still selling so well. How many 360 consoles have been sold compared to the original xbox?

In the US 19.3 versus 14.5ish iirc. WW ~40 million versus 25.
 
radjago said:
Were one console exclusive released in January and two multiplat titles that lean heavily 360 really enough to push it to the top this month? What else happened?
what else happened? shortages for PS3 and Wii.

if you want to play Final Fantasy 13, or Dante's, or Bioshock 2, or BFBC2 and don't have a PS3 or 360 already... that 360 is going to look more and more tempting each time you walk into a store and see they've got them in stock.

a multiplatform game isn't going to push new sales for a console no one can find to buy.

V_Arnold said:
Uhm....okay. So Sony is realeasing God of War 3 when its console is "supply constrained". Very clever, very clever.

these things have to be planned months in advance. if the rumours about where the supply constraints have come from are true, then there was little they could have done to predict such a thing.
 

EagleEyes

Member
Jtyettis said:
In the US 19.3 versus 14.5ish iirc. WW ~40 million versus 25.
Wow, that is impressive. I'm glad they stuck with the industry after losing so much money on the original xbox. Worldwide numbers are impressive considering the og xbox really had no presence outside of the US.
 

racerx

Banned
plagiarize said:
Darkwatch :) came out last gen. it's Halo with vampires and a steam powered warthog called 'The Coyote'.


well, according to 1up, "...darkwatch has enough unique aspects to avoid the dreaded Halo "rip-off" label.."

If search ripoff darkwatch halo, you'll find many comments saying that darkwatch was a halo rip off.
 

FrankT

Member
sinseers said:
Is QD a 2nd party to Sony now or did Sony just publish HR? I'm curious as to why HR wasn't a multiplat.

Pretty sure it was simply a deal made like Bioshock or Mass Effect. Fairly sure they are not second party, but a publisher deal made exclusivly with Sony for the title.

Anyhow Pachter chimes in on the Wii;

Wii Sales Decline 'Runs Deeper' Than Supply Constraints, says Pachter


Following the disappointing February sales data, a number of analysts weighed in on the results. While sales were expected to be down, it seems the final tally was a bit lower than expected. Part of it has to do with continued declines in the music games genre, and another major contributor is the drop-off in Wii sales.

Regarding the Wii, EEDAR's Jesse Divnich noted that shortages continue to plague Nintendo. "Our extensive retail channel checks have all indicated that, in fact, the Nintendo Wii is in short supply. We believe February numbers reflect entirely on the Wii being supply constrained and has little to do with declining demand of the product," he said.

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter disagrees, however; he thinks the Wii decline isn't simply a result of shortages. "Nintendo’s overall performance was well below our expectations, with software down over 30% and Wii hardware units down almost 50%. Nintendo had warned us that February would be a difficult month due to supply constraints, but we believe that the problem runs deeper than that, as sales of staple titles like Wii Fit with Balance Board and Wii Play were well below historical levels," he noted.

Ultimately, Pachter thinks the Wii will need something to jumpstart its business as 2010 goes on. Microsoft and Sony have their upcoming motion controllers, but Nintendo hasn't announced any substantial catalyst. "There is clearly strong demand for the PS3 at the moment due in part to its list of exclusives in early 2010 (Heavy Rain, God of War III, MLB the Show 10, et al) and Blu-ray compatibility. Nintendo’s Wii, on the other hand, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May (Super Mario Galaxy 2) and its software attach rate continues to decline," he commented. "Over the last several years, the Wii benefited from being the cheapest console, but it seems that many of its new purchasers are more discriminating about software purchases than in the past, with a consistently declining tie ratio. This is exemplified by Wii Play, which sold barely 50,000 units in February, and Wii Fit, which also came in well below what we had expected. Titles such as these are finally starting to fade, suggesting that the new Wii purchaser is more casual than ever. Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst."

Overall for the industry, analysts seem to agree that February is probably the low point in 2010, and sales should see a nice rebound in the coming months. "February was the fifth consecutive month of negative y/y comps for U.S. video game software and the 11th negative month out of the last 12. Thankfully, we expect this trend will likely reverse in March, when y/y growth should be driven by a strong software pipeline of core gamer titles (Battlefield Bad Company 2, God of War III, and Final Fantasy XIII in particular) while benefiting from an easy comp (March 2009 software sales were down 17% y/y)," said Ben Schachter of Broadpoint AmTech. "In fact, easier industry comps will persist for the next few months as the effect of holiday 2008 Music-genre releases that continued to sell relatively well into early 2009 rolls off (software sales were down 22%, 17%, 28%, 26%, and 15% for April - August 2009, respectively)."

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/...-deeper-than-supply-constraints-says-pachter/

Bit surprised at the Wii SW attach rate declining. I also don't think Feb is the low for 2010 although the coming months should be at least solid.
 
Baki said:
GoW 2 launched in March 2007. 5 months after the PS3 launch in North America. This meant that the game did not get as much attention as it deserved.

GoW 3 however has a lot more attention this time around. I do not believe that the userbase of the PS3 will be a limiting factor in this case. It should sell a similar amount, if not more than GoW 2 in its opening month.

I think 800K is a very realistic goal for God Of War 3. Actuallly, anything less would be a dissapointment.

At the time of release, every single PS3 could play GoW2 and at the price the system launched most PS3 owners were traditional hardcore Sony fans so there would have been no reason for this title to not get attention. Plus, there was a huge ad campaign for the game.

So you think 3 will sell the same as 2 with 3x less the userbase and way more competition?
 
templeusox said:
Haha. You gotta love that the few HR haters here have congregated in the bowels of the NPD thread to fight the good fight.

I was going to keep my mouth shut, but since you're obviously looking for this...

I hated Heavy Rain. I didn't just feel it wasn't my cup of tea, I HATED it. It's the worst non-shovelware title I've seen in years. It's like someone took a list of game design's worst mistakes and used it as a blueprint.

And I was willing to let it pass. It'll be gone soon enough. But meanwhile, we have to tolerate the "faithful" who refuse to hear criticism. Well, too bad. I have news for you: the hard facts of its sales performance indicates that the "few" haters are significantly more than a few, and the people who are indifferent are a vast majority of us out there. Enjoy your niche piece of bad art.

Happy now?
 

FrankT

Member
Despite the Xbox 360 edition's #1 ranking in US February game sales, the PS3 version of BioShock 2 was curiously absent from the top ten listing. An NPD representative told Joystiq that the PS3 game recorded roughly 190.5k units sold last month, "just outside the top 10 at #11." If anything's to blame for this somewhat modest debut month, it's Heavy Rain. In just one week of retail availability, the PS3-exclusive "Western Interactive Novel" had enough of an impact, with 219.3k units sold, to seemingly alter the sales course of BioShock 2 for PS3.

http://www.gamedaily.com/games/bios...oshock-2-feb-ps3-sales-just-shy-of-200k-mark/

So #11 is Bioshock 2 PS3 at 190.5k.
 

clashfan

Member
Leondexter said:
I was going to keep my mouth shut, but since you're obviously looking for this...

I hated Heavy Rain. I didn't just feel it wasn't my cup of tea, I HATED it. It's the worst non-shovelware title I've seen in years. It's like someone took a list of game design's worst mistakes and used it as a blueprint.

And I was willing to let it pass. It'll be gone soon enough. But meanwhile, we have to tolerate the "faithful" who refuse to hear criticism. Well, too bad. I have news for you: the hard facts of its sales performance indicates that the "few" haters are significantly more than a few, and the people who are indifferent are a vast majority of us out there. Enjoy your niche piece of bad art.

Happy now?

/thread
 

Evlar

Banned
Leondexter said:
I was going to keep my mouth shut, but since you're obviously looking for this...

I hated Heavy Rain. I didn't just feel it wasn't my cup of tea, I HATED it. It's the worst non-shovelware title I've seen in years. It's like someone took a list of game design's worst mistakes and used it as a blueprint.

And I was willing to let it pass. It'll be gone soon enough. But meanwhile, we have to tolerate the "faithful" who refuse to hear criticism. Well, too bad. I have news for you: the hard facts of its sales performance indicates that the "few" haters are significantly more than a few, and the people who are indifferent are a vast majority of us out there. Enjoy your niche piece of bad art.

Happy now?
I fail to see how the Heavy Rain sales data vindicates your view of the game: as far as I'm aware NPD counts sales to people who end up disliking the game they purchased. If you bought it and hated it, you still bought it.
 

onipex

Member
Jtyettis said:
Pretty sure it was simply a deal made like Bioshock or Mass Effect. Fairly sure they are not second party, but a publisher deal made exclusivly with Sony for the title.

Anyhow Pachter chimes in on the Wii;



http://www.industrygamers.com/news/...-deeper-than-supply-constraints-says-pachter/

Bit surprised at the Wii SW attach rate declining. I also don't think Feb is the low for 2010 although the coming months should be at least solid.

Since he is mentioning WiiFit I will assume he is not talking about WiiFit plus. I thought production for WiiFit ended back in November.

Pachter fails to mention that WiiPlay and WiiFit plus were also in low supply for most of last month. Last time I checked both were still hard to find.
 

jibblypop

Banned
Pachter said:
There is clearly strong demand for the PS3 at the moment...

Pachter is weird. There is "clearly" strong demand for the PS3. In my eyes, clear demand would be it having the highest sales which is never does in any month.
 

pr0cs

Member
jibblypop said:
Pachter is weird. There is "clearly" strong demand for the PS3. In my eyes, clear demand would be it having the highest sales which is never does in any month.
perhaps he too reads a little too much GAF.
 

Massa

Member
Jtyettis said:
Pretty sure it was simply a deal made like Bioshock or Mass Effect. Fairly sure they are not second party, but a publisher deal made exclusivly with Sony for the title.

Anyhow Pachter chimes in on the Wii;

Nope, Sony owns the Heavy Rain IP which they bought from QD around E3 last year.
 

FrankT

Member
Massa said:
Nope, Sony owns the Heavy Rain IP which they bought from QD around E3 last year.

Yea but they aren't second party like he was asking I don't believe. Although I wasn't aware they bought the IP rights.
 

Doorman

Member
So this is the time for that Wii-HD that Pachter's been going on about for a year or two now, right? The fad is finally over? :lol

Nintendo’s Wii, on the other hand, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May (Super Mario Galaxy 2) and its software attach rate continues to decline," he commented.
So I guess the likes of Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter Tri don't count as "exciting exclusives?" It sounds a bit like he's falling into the old thought pattern that any Wii game not made by Nintendo is immediately irrelevant. Both of those games could be successful in the market if they bothered to advertise them, which I doubt was much different for a project like Heavy Rain. It's not like that had major brand awareness to count for its successes.

"Over the last several years, the Wii benefited from being the cheapest console, but it seems that many of its new purchasers are more discriminating about software purchases than in the past, with a consistently declining tie ratio. This is exemplified by Wii Play, which sold barely 50,000 units in February, and Wii Fit, which also came in well below what we had expected. Titles such as these are finally starting to fade, suggesting that the new Wii purchaser is more casual than ever.
Sounds like a bit of a leap of logic to me. Wii Play and Wii Fit are declining, therefore users are even MORE casual than some of the most casual software on the market? What if the users that started on Wii Play and Mario Kart are starting to want deeper experiences but haven't figured out where to get it yet? Games like Red Steel 2 and Galaxy 2 will be very telling on this point, either way.

Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst."
Again, I guess Monster Hunter, Mario, and Metroid apparently aren't very important to him. Not to mention the fact that the PS3 and 360's motion controllers won't come out until this fall, by which point we'll probably finally know what Nintendo plans to do with the Vitality Sensor. It's way to early to be making projections about what will happen in the fall, when we have such a little idea of what will actually be there at that time.
 
Evlar said:
I fail to see how the Heavy Rain sales data vindicates your view of the game: as far as I'm aware NPD counts sales to people who end up disliking the game they purchased. If you bought it and hated it, you still bought it.

But you can play it and hate it without buying it. Even assuming that everyone who bought it loved it, that's a far cry from a majority.
 

dolemite

Member
plagiarize said:
these things have to be planned months in advance. if the rumours about where the supply constraints have come from are true, then there was little they could have done to predict such a thing.
They could at least publicly apologize for this.
 

Baki

Member
racerx said:
no. Any other month, gow3 would do like 500k, but next month is damn competitive.
:lol 500K. Uncharted did more than that in its launch month.

Regardless, what is the source for those pre-order numbers.
 

Vinci

Danish
Jtyettis said:
Well Nintendo has an answer. Low SW stock;

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35837061

I don't ever doubt Nintendo this gen and like any other huge title on the platform SMG2 is probably going to do wonders for it until the next hit comes along.

Gotta love when analysts that have been wrong far more often this gen than right are saying, "Nintendo's lying - the system is clearly not in demand!"
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Doorman said:
So I guess the likes of Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter Tri don't count as "exciting exclusives?" It sounds a bit like he's falling into the old thought pattern that any Wii game not made by Nintendo is immediately irrelevant. Both of those games could be successful in the market if they bothered to advertise them, which I doubt was much different for a project like Heavy Rain. It's not like that had major brand awareness to count for its successes.

Those don't count as exciting exclusives because Ubisoft is predicting 500k sales for Red Steel 2 worldwide and Monster Hunter Tri has been extensively advertised for its last two installments and hasn't broken 200k.

OR BECUZ PATCHUR IS BIAST!!
 

evangd007

Member
Jtyettis said:
Well Nintendo has an answer. Low SW stock;

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35837061

I don't ever doubt Nintendo this gen and like any other huge title on the platform SMG2 is probably going to do wonders for it until the next hit comes along.

Geez. I knew that Nintendo had supply problems, but not to this extent. It's really too bad that the Wii, Wii software, and the PS3 were all supply constrained last month; the industry may have been able to pull off some growth if they hadn't been.
 
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