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NPD Sales Results for February 2014 [Up2: PS4/XB1/Wii U/360 Hardware, BD/Poke/DK]

I remember you saying the Wii U would have 10 or 20 million consoles sold by the time PS4 and XB1 and would be the reason why third parties would be forced to support.

I'm pretty sure it was you because I don't think anyone else was crazy enough to make that prediction

I did indeed but I only said it on here to show how clueless I can be regarding sales figures :) and to be fair to myself I predicted that number before Nintendo had announced a launch price or launch games...

I predict sales for some light hearted fun and a bit of banter, some people take the whole thing far, far too seriously :D.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Lots of LinkedIn notices went out about updated profiles that's for sure.

The general cautiousness of the AAA games getting announced (sans the amount of money being invested per game) also speaks to this I feel.

There aren't many projects I'd consider conceptually risky as opposed to risky due to huge budgets.
 
I did indeed but I only said it on here to show how clueless I can be regarding sales figures :) and to be fair to myself I predicted that number before Nintendo had announced a launch price or launch games...

I predict sales for some light hearted fun and a bit of banter, some people take the whole thing far, far too seriously :D.
You did too ehhh?

We can be crazy together!

Step back Glorified!

It's painting with poop time!
 

tebunker

Banned
So I guess Nintendo will follow up that hit DK TF with another WiiU game in..... May? Seriously, they have no clue how to maintain momentum. So bad. So Slow. Poor Plan.
 
I'd say next month is up in the air.

I don't expect Titanfall to have a fraction of the selling power some seem to expect, but on a new console even something with limited appeal can sell well. Look at Red Steel for Wii. That game wasn't even a competent game, let alone good and it still sold over a million units.

I expect Titanfall to be in another league as a game, but still limited in appeal. I don't expect the series to be a huge seller overall. If they're lucky it might sell to the Halo crowd, but I really doubt it comes close to the CoD crowd... ever.
I think Titanfall will definitely see big numbers. It's the shoe-in for the month's top spot, and I think it will see a really high attach rate among the current 2.2M XB1 owners and push new hardware sales in March specifically for the game.

Although I'm not yet convinced that it will necessarily provide the boost that some are expecting to hardware - I still expect a good boost; but I do think that many people who want the game will have already jumped in.

The big thing will be though whether software is finally up again next month with two big next gen titles in Titanfall and Infamous, as well as things like MGS and Dark Souls II.
 
You can't say this so definitively either way. Sony isn't planning to send over 300K consoles for launch like they did last month. Sony is only selling what they had. The stock allotment will be different this month. How much so remains to be seen



If Infamous sales are close it won't be for that reason. Take a look at the top ten games sold in the OP. 6 of the 10 have PS4 sku's. Nobody cares or keeps count of what is exclusive or not outside of forums. If a consumer wants to spend $60 on a title it's because they want to play it, they're not concerned who is publishing it.

Well all of them are multiplatforms , I am talking about an exclusive on one platform selling
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
So I guess Nintendo will follow up that hit DK TF with another WiiU game in..... May? Seriously, they have no clue how to maintain momentum. So bad. So Slow. Poor Plan.

To be honest I'm not sure how much more they can do.

The 3DS is already started to get Nintendo first-party game starved in order to support the amount of Wii U output they're doing as it is.
 

Ridley327

Member
I see, thanks.

FWIW, I think the reason for the speedier replenishment was because of what went down with FE:A. The immensely unexpected success of that game took everyone by surprise, including NoA who thought, and I feel it was correctly at the time, that the first shipment was going to last them the life of the product, especially coming off the rather poor sales of Shadow Dragon and passing on the second DS game. No one could have seen that surge coming.
 

Tripon

Member
Final Fantasy 13-3 cost a shitton more than BD to produce though, that will be the issue for Square. Return on investment is going to be a killer.

Yeah, the ROI should be better on BD. But we don't know what sort of publishing deal S-E did with Nintendo. So there's a possibility that because of that, S-E did make more money on the western release of LR.
 

DaBoss

Member
If we use Kagari as a source who despises FFXIII, then it is very suspect. NPD has it 8 before 10 so I chose to believe the official one. Don't forget that LR was offered digitally as well.
Yes, cause a mod would lie about facts.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
If we use Kagari as a source who despises FFXIII, then it is very suspect. NPD has it 8 before 10 so I chose to believe the official one. Don't forget that LR was offered digitally as well.
I've seen NPD numbers (usually later on) for a few years now and can confirm that she's not BSing.

Creamsugar should be along though if you don't want to trust me, which is fair as I have no track record.
 
Post-Titanfall, how long can Microsoft sell Xbox One's while giving away free games and keep up? At some point you're going to hit a wall and discover you can no longer juice demand with giveaways.
 

Branduil

Member
To be honest I'm not sure how much more they can do.

The 3DS is already started to get Nintendo first-party game starved in order to support the amount of Wii U output they're doing as it is.

There's really nothing they can do now. Everything that's happened is the result of their poor decisions and planning years ago.

Now they just have to figure out how to avoid this problem with their next generation of hardware.
 
You did too ehhh?

We can be crazy together!

Step back Glorified!

It's painting with poop time!

It was on another forum I predicted those numbers (it was between 10 and 15 million units in year one actually) which I don't think is too bad considering I didn't know the launch price (I predicted $249) or launch games (I predicted a 3D Mario) and no one predicted the total flop WiiU has been.

I actually voluntarily posted my old predictions on GAF just to show people how much I actually care about being right or wrong about sales. I find sales talk / numbers / predictions interesting and it's cheaper than betting on football at the bookmakers :D.
 
If we use Kagari as a source who despises FFXIII, then it is very suspect. NPD has it 8 before 10 so I chose to believe the official one. Don't forget that LR was offered digitally as well.

The explanation of BD being sold out in the first weeks and so pushing way more digital sales that normal makes more sense than Kagari straight up lying.
 

Road

Member
If we use Kagari as a source who despises FFXIII, then it is very suspect. NPD has it 8 before 10 so I chose to believe the official one. Don't forget that LR was offered digitally as well.

Yes, as much as I want it to be true we cannot affirm either way.

Physical: Lightning > Bravely Default

Download: ???
 
Yeah, the ROI should be better on BD. But we don't know what sort of publishing deal S-E did with Nintendo. So there's a possibility that because of that, S-E did make more money on the western release of LR.

That's very true as well. I would be very interested to hear more indepth details on how these Nintendo publishing deals go down.
 
It was on another forum I predicted those numbers (it was between 10 and 15 million units in year one actually) which I don't think is too bad considering I didn't know the launch price (I predicted $249) or launch games (I predicted a 3D Mario) and no one predicted the total flop WiiU has been.

I actually voluntarily posted my old predictions on GAF just to show people how much I actually care about being right or wrong about sales. I find sales talk / numbers / predictions interesting and it's cheaper than betting on football at the bookmakers :D.
Hah!

Stay in front of your crazy and you can mitigate the impact of it. This is why I've always been willing to say "I WAS FUCKING SO WRONG!"

My prediction was made after we'd learned the price and launch wares though. I really did have that much faith in NSMB.
 

TomShoe

Banned
OT: PS4s are back in stock at Amazon, and #1 again; 1K+ available.

Titanfall at #4

Infamous: SS at #7

MGS: GZ at #9

XBO Titanfall Bundle at #10

I'm pretty sure Lightning Returns was cheaper to make than BD.

How so? Re-using assets? I've always assumed that 3DS games were cheaper and easier to make, hence the lower price than a console game.
 

antipode

Member
I think he's saying Bravely Default beat Lightning Returns on a per-platform basis. We already know Bravely Default was the #2 best-selling title of the month on the per-platform list.

So something like

BD: 200K
LR PS3: 134K - 199K
LR 360: 66K - 100K

If LR PS3 outsold LR 360 2:1.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
It's not a lie.
Official NPD:
8: LR
10: BD

BD physical + digital = ~200.000.
So LR physical <200.000



Ok, that's all :)
It's not significantly lower in terms of physical versus the physical + digital total, but with optimistic but still traditional digital attach rates on Lightning for 360/PS3 I'd still expect it to be a bit lower.
 

tebunker

Banned
To be honest I'm not sure how much more they can do.

The 3DS is already started to get Nintendo first-party game starved in order to support the amount of Wii U output they're doing as it is.

It's true, it just seems like they aren't capable of carrying two systems entirely on their own. They needed to really focus on WiiU for it's second year, and they really really really needed to pull out all the stops on partnerships to get more games. They should just be publishing more stuff outright for the WiiU from 3rd parties like they have for 3ds.
 
MS must be pretty happy with those numbers. $100 more and they are not far off PS4's sales plus CoD on XBone leading. With the release of Titanfall they should push past PS4 for next month. Sony really needs to release some games media to get that momentum going again as it seems the wind has been taken out of their sails. Good scores for Infamous may do it I guess.
 

Ridley327

Member
Congrats to bravely default. I'm rather surprised by its success. Did it have a lot of marketing?

Yeah, Nintendo did just about everything you could want: lots of in-store advertising, feature spots on the eShop (and a meaty demo with a save file transfer to the final game didn't hurt), and TV ads. Combine that with the strong word of mouth from importers and doing a good job of fostering the RPG fanbase on the system in 2013, and there's really not much more you could ask of them.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
MS must be pretty happy with those numbers. $100 more and they are not far off PS4's sales plus CoD on XBone leading. With the release of Titanfall they should push past PS4 for next month. Sony really needs to release some games media to get that momentum going again as it seems the wind has been taken out of their sails. Good scores for Infamous may do it I guess.

What wind? What sails? Instead of selling 100% of available stock they will sell...100% of available stock? You keep repeating it but where is the math behind your momentum?
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
I think he's saying Bravely Default beat Lightning Returns on a per-platform basis. We already know Bravely Default was the #2 best-selling title of the month on the per-platform list.

So something like

BD: 200K
LR PS3: 134K - 199K
LR 360: 66K - 100K

If LR PS3 outsold LR 360 2:1.

Both are lower.
 

DJIzana

Member
I knew it'd sell better. Told Kagari that before #'s were posted. People want a more traditional JRPG... especially one from Square Enix.
 

Go_Ly_Dow

Member

no way!

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