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[super-heated plasma]

Add me to the sales for Xbone for March NPD. I got my Xbone Titanfall bundle. I am absolutely loving the system. The voice commands work great for me. Switching between TV and my dashboard or game is fantastic. It was so awesome watching a movie on Netflix and using my voice to control the movie whenever I had to do something else and not have to fumble for a remote with buttons that I can't see in the dark. It may not be as powerful as a PS4, but damn its cool. Sorry haters.

 

[CosmicQueso]

creamsugar (or someone), put Vita number on the table please... this ~12k is nonsense.

That cup is half empty.

 

[kswiston]

Not dying, just having a reduction. Nintendo can survive with a 30m LTD selling handheld console and all their software royalties.

Not with their current structure they can't. Especially if we are talking about a Wii U sized console market to go along with that. But there's no way the 3DS will do less than twice that.

 

[jvm]

Even if we assumed it held at 2013 levels for the next three years, which is really unlikely, it would take:
3 years to beat out the GBA's hardware total
Over 3 years to beat out the GBA's software total

Will it really get 3 years more? The NDS lasted from November 2004 to November 2012, generously speaking, or 8 years for its entire run. The GBA ran from June 2001 to December 2007, or 6.5 years. (All NA figures.)

Will the 3DS, in the shape it's in now, get a full six years (February 2011 to February 2017)?

Edit: As fast as the market is shifting, I really have difficulty comprehending a 3DS device in its current manifestation being very appealing in three years. But, as we all know, it just takes the right software and a hardware revision to change our view.

 

[SwiftDeath]

It's an e reader for your physical books.

Lightplayer making a comeback

That cup is half empty.

24K HA TAKE THAT OUYA!

 

[theprodigy]

That cup is half empty.

so....25k?

 

[casinoman921]

Has this been posted? http://www.gamespot.com/articles/ni...g-february-sales-over-last-year/1100-6418305/

Says 3DS increased 25% over Feb. 2013.

EDIT: Wait, PR says software, this reads like hardware

 

[Pyrochaos]

Care to elaborate?

You don't see anything wrong with this statement you wrote?

As a next-gen console it might be doing well now but once friends of friends start visiting their friends and seeing the difference between Xbone and PS4 Call of Duty first hand there will be a tough pill to swallow for the people who believe in a parity between the consoles graphically.

 

[jcm]

What does the situation look like if you subtracted Japan from the totals of both systems?

I don't know about WW ex-Japan, but shinra posted an interesting chart of handheld sales in the US:

In picture form...

US Handheld TTM sales (missing NDS and PSP for the last few months, but they wouldn't be enough to stop the decline.)I still think there'll be some sort of 3DS successor. There won't be a PSV successor obviously.

3DS + vita are selling at a lower rate than the GBA alone did.

Mine, surprisingly. DS was clearly an anomaly, but 3DS is still selling very well and is on-track to tromp the GBA in sales. Unfortunately, as I've said, pricing and content are major hurdles it still needs to overcome, and fast, but it's clear handhelds are here to stay.

At a much higher price point, with less software overall and at a higher price point as well.

In the space of a few posts you've gone from 3DS tromping the GBA to explaining why the 3DS doesn't sell as well as the GBA.

 

[kinoki]

Well for a start people going to friends houses and noticing how much better COD looks on the PS4.

My belief is that there is a group of consumers who are not in the-know of the differences between the graphical performances of the respective consoles. I think that the lack of parity will be a back-lash to Microsoft when these consoles have begun to spread to these consumers simply by having them exposed to both version of popular games. Kind of like it was back in the Nintendo/Sega days. But of course, I could be wrong.

You don't see anything wrong with this statement you wrote?

Anything else?

 

[Metallix87]

IN the space of a few posts you've gone from 3DS tromping the GBA to explaining why the 3DS doesn't sell as well as the GBA.

I more meant in the grand scheme of things, with the differences considered, though it's clear my point wasn't clear, and I can admit that.

 

[Nirolak]

Will it really get 3 years more? The NDS lasted from November 2004 to November 2012, generously speaking, or 8 years for its entire run. The GBA ran from June 2001 to December 2007, or 6.5 years. (All NA figures.)

Will the 3DS, in the shape it's in now, get a full six years (February 2011 to February 2017)?

Edit: As fast as the market is shifting, I really have difficulty comprehending a 3DS device in its current manifestation being very appealing in three years. But, as we all know, it just takes the right software and a hardware revision to change our view.

I don't believe so, and I also don't think it will hold at these levels even if it did.

 

[Guevara]

Not dying, just having a reduction. Nintendo can survive with a 30m LTD selling handheld console and all their software royalties.

I'm not sure if the floor is 30M LTD, or if that is just a stop on the way down though. But either way, 3rd parties will defect to mobile at that level (they already are) and royalties will be lowered in two ways.

 

[DaBoss]

2016 should be its last year.

 

[TechnicPuppet]

My belief is that there is a group of consumers who are not in the-know of the differences between the graphical performances of the respective consoles. I think that the lack of parity will be a back-lash to Microsoft when these consoles have begun to spread to these consumers simply by having them exposed to both version of popular games. Kind of like it was back in the Nintendo/Sega days. But of course, I could be wrong.

I could be wrong as well but I just don't see it.

 

[sörine]

That cup is half empty.

24k!

Has this been posted? http://www.gamespot.com/articles/ni...g-february-sales-over-last-year/1100-6418305/

Says 3DS increased 25% over Feb. 2013.

EDIT: Wait, PR says software, this reads like hardware

Has be software. If it was hardware 3DS would be 236k.

 

[Pyrochaos]

My belief is that there is a group of consumers who are not in the-know of the differences between the graphical performances of the respective consoles. I think that the lack of parity will be a back-lash to Microsoft when these consoles have begun to spread to these consumers simply by having them exposed to both version of popular games. Kind of like it was back in the Nintendo/Sega days. But of course, I could be wrong.



Anything else?

The only time you are going to notice a difference in graphics, is when you have them side by side. The average consumer isn't going to digital foundry to see if the game they just bought measures up to the competition.

The group of people not in the know is the average consumers. These devices sell tens of millions. We all knew the PS3 was more powerful than the 360, but that didn't hinder the 360's success. We all knew the N64 was 64 bit, while our PS1 was 32bit, but that didn't hinder the success of the PS1.

The only real problem I see with the XB1 is the $100 difference. The average consumer couldn't give a crap about the included kinect, when they go to the shelf and see it's $100 more, when they could get the same experience on the PS4, they would go with the cheaper console.

 

[Mpl90]

Games pricing is definitely limiting 3DS possibilities in the US market. As well as the lack of Platinum / Player's Choice likes at retail: I'm so sure Nintendo titles (and some third parties) would see good increases by putting older titles at lower prices. But I'm also one of those who firmly believes that the pricing system in general is hurting lots of titles in the overall market, especially new IPs...that's why I accept open-hearted Nintendo intentions of making pay you less the more games you buy. I've even opened a thread about it, since it's one of those things that seem to be talked the least from last January, but IMHO could be great (again, as executed well), and for which we've already had some tests, and we're still seeing them. Hopefully, they do it right and they include retail purchases as well.

I don't know what the point of that would be. People aren't going to buy a Nintendo phone. Unless you mean it will also run Android, which I don't really see either.

Before I forget, I promised you this

Here's the sketch I draw some months ago, and that I already posted on Gaf in various occasions.
As you've already noticed, actually this is a concept for a console that can be a phone (turnable screen for the top part) and a tablet (rotating hinges + retractible L & R buttons with a support, like the Wii U Gamepad), but just remove the whole tablet part, and it still stands for what I was meaning: something that can be used as a phone, but that's an handheld at its core.

Such a design would also implicate a cost advantage (only one photocamera, instead of two, since you just need to rotate the screen part in order to make photos internally or externally) and a neaty feature (with the camera outside, who shoots uses the bottom screen, while who's being shooted could actually check if everything's ok with their own eyes, by looking at the top screen, rotated towards them; the same for videos).

But, while I'm sincerly excited for the prospects of Nintendo Network being their actual platform, I'm not so confident they'd have what it takes to develop such an hybrid, especially on the phone front, where they have no experience currently.

Apart from this (very) hypotetical scenario, my beliefs for next Nintendo handheld are currently

1)3D out
2)still two screens, this time both capacitive
3)launch price lower than 3DS, but not super-budget right out of the gate (around 199.99, and not higher)
4)powerful enough to
- support as much tools as possible for indies / little developers(like Wii U, if not more: Nintendo Web Framework, Unity Pro, Construct 2, and what else will come)
- get some historically "home" properties from Japanese third parties, at least as multi releases: Vita risks to have no successor, so some of its franchises should go to Nintendo's next handheld, but they should try to get some other franchises that are not so used to release on portables. Mentioning Japanese third parties since they're the ones who could probably be more interested - I'd like to see Western third parties throwing some multi bones, but that's quasi-impossible right now

 

[kswiston]

I don't know about WW ex-Japan, but shinra posted an interesting chart of handheld sales in the US:

I looked it up myself. Of course, these are just shipment numbers to the Americas as a whole. I don't have access to any NPD data.

Hardware Shipment Numbers to the Americas

GBA
FY 2002 - 7,570,000
FY 2003 - 7,800,000
FY 2004 - 9,450,000
TOTAL = 24,820,000

3DS
FY 2011 - 1,320,000 (launch shipment)
FY 2012 - 4,670,000
FY 2013 - 4,270,000
FY 2014 - 4,100,000
TOTAL = 14,360,000

It's not even close. Software sales are even more embarrassing. GBA's FY 2005 software shipments were only a few million lower than 3DS's LTD software shipments in the Americas.

 

[theprodigy]

The only time you are going to notice a difference in graphics, is when you have them side by side. The average consumer isn't going to digital foundry to see if the game they just bought measures up to the competition.

The group of people not in the know is the average consumers. These devices sell tens of millions. We all knew the PS3 was more powerful than the 360, but that didn't hinder the 360's success. We all knew the N64 was 64 bit, while our PS1 was 32bit, but that didn't hinder the success of the PS1.

The only real problem I see with the XB1 is the $100 difference. The average consumer couldn't give a crap about the included kinect, when they go to the shelf and see it's $100 more, when they could get the same experience on the PS4, they would go with the cheaper console.

This isn't really true, especially considering the majority of western 3rd-party games ran better on the 360.

 

[noobie]

Have we got any TitanFall launch sales number..

I know it does not belong here.. but i know knowledgeable people are in this thread.

 

[allan-bh]

That cup is half empty.

Now makes sense. Thanks.

 

[jvm]

I don't believe so, and I also don't think it will hold at these levels even if it did.

Right. So I think we agree.

The discussion of what Nintendo does from here is important.

On the one side you have the people who say that Nintendo is foregoing an opportunity by not putting its software in the mobile market. The response to this is generally to say that they will lose money because they're in a third party role and it will hurt their hardware business.

On the other side, you have people who say that Nintendo is at its best when it controls hardware and software, and that this produces the best experience for consumers. The response to that is that plenty of great software is created by third parties (in fact, most good software, although first-party software is certainly special).

The question needs to be framed not as an either/or, but rather more neutrally: How can Nintendo leverage the current market conditions -- their status as the main dedicated handheld gaming system company, their stable of immensely valuable properties, and the huge opportunities that may exist in markets like mobile and social -- to continue to be a game company that makes great games and a profit at the same time.

I don't have a good answer. My own solution would be to spin off a small company, separate from the internal profit/revenue metrics of the main company, that has access to Nintendo's designers and intellectual properties and can use those skills and properties appropriately on mobile to expand Nintendo's revenue base. Those games would be exclusive to mobile and could experiment without being beholden to success metrics that probably matter inside the main company, like units shipped.

 

[DaBoss]

-snip-

Did you consider ergonomics when drawing that?

It does not look comfortable to hold at all.

 

[rokkerkory]

I think March X1 may have a chance to claim #1 console spot due to:
- lack of PS4 allocations
- TitanFall bundle and game

Kinda surprising to see mid 200k demand for a $500 system.

 

[kinoki]

I could be wrong as well but I just don't see it.

The only time you are going to notice a difference in graphics, is when you have them side by side. The average consumer isn't going to digital foundry to see if the game they just bought measures up to the competition.

The group of people not in the know is the average consumers. These devices sell tens of millions. We all knew the PS3 was more powerful than the 360, but that didn't hinder the 360's success. We all knew the N64 was 64 bit, while our PS1 was 32bit, but that didn't hinder the success of the PS1.

The only real problem I see with the XB1 is the $100 difference. The average consumer couldn't give a crap about the included kinect, when they go to the shelf and see it's $100 more, when they could get the same experience on the PS4, they would go with the cheaper console.

The PS3/360 power struggle was apples and oranges. They were good at different things and parity was in the hands of the developers. It was just more cost-effective to give the edge to 360 and the PS3 never really suffered. The PS4/Xbone will only have parity if either it doesn't make full use of the hardware or they don't want to spend money making use of PS4 hardware. I believe that graphical parity, for all the DF-articles we have today, will be an even bigger issue in 3-4 years.

 

[TheCloser]

I think March X1 may have a chance to claim #1 console spot due to:
- lack of PS4 allocations
- TitanFall bundle and game

Kinda surprising to see mid 200k demand for a $500 system.

False, evidence shows that PS4 is going to have lots of stock in March. Amazon has already received 3 shipments so far in march and other retailers are reporting increased shipments.

 

[jcm]

I more meant in the grand scheme of things, with the differences considered, though it's clear my point wasn't clear, and I can admit that.

I think the 3DS situation in the US is much worse than it's been for any Nintendo handheld. Your explanations for that performance are reasonable, and it's entirely possible that Nintendo will turn things around, but in my opinion the current sales trends favor my assumption, not yours. I think shinra's TTM chart makes that clear.

That cup is half empty.

Thanks Mr. Cheese. So 3DS is in the neighborhood of 150-155?

I looked it up myself. Of course, these are just shipment numbers to the Americas as a whole. I don't have access to any NPD data.

Hardware Shipment Numbers to the Americas

GBA
FY 2002 - 7,570,000
FY 2003 - 7,800,000
FY 2004 - 9,450,000
TOTAL = 24,820,000

3DS
FY 2011 - 1,320,000 (launch shipment)
FY 2012 - 4,670,000
FY 2013 - 4,270,000
FY 2014 - 4,100,000
TOTAL = 14,360,000

It's not even close. Software sales are even more embarrassing. GBA's FY 2005 software shipments were only a few million lower than 3DS's LTD software shipments in the Americas.

Damn. That's an enormous difference. Thanks for tracking the data down.

 

[rokkerkory]

False, evidence shows that PS4 is going to have lots of stock in March. Amazon has already received 3 shipments so far in march and other retailers are reporting increased shipments.

Well I hope so. But relative to X1, PS4 allocations are still lacking. Besides Amazon is a single source, albiet a big one.

"increased shipments" can mean a lot of things.

 

[Biker19]

The PS3/360 power struggle was apples and oranges. They were good at different things and parity was in the hands of the developers. It was just more cost-effective to give the edge to 360 and the PS3 never really suffered. The PS4/Xbone will only have parity if either it doesn't make full use of the hardware or they don't want to spend money making use of PS4 hardware. I believe that graphical parity, for all the DF-articles we have today, will be an even bigger issue in 3-4 years.

I agree. I highly doubt that they'll be parity between Xbox One & PS4 like with 360 & PS3. There's already huge differences between Xbox One & PS4 versions in multiplat games now.

What's going to happen when future games starts getting more demanding? Xbox One's hardware certainly won't be able to keep up with PS4's, so having parity will be gone out of the window regardless.

 

[TechnicPuppet]

The PS3/360 power struggle was apples and oranges. They were good at different things and parity was in the hands of the developers. It was just more cost-effective to give the edge to 360 and the PS3 never really suffered. The PS4/Xbone will only have parity if either it doesn't make full use of the hardware or they don't want to spend money making use of PS4 hardware. I believe that graphical parity, for all the DF-articles we have today, will be an even bigger issue in 3-4 years.

I don't agree. Some games were near broken on the PS3 and it did it no harm. That wont happen on the XB1. There is also no reason to believe the gap will get bigger. Devs will get better on both platforms.

 

[Mpl90]

Did you consider ergonomics when drawing that?

It does not look comfortable to hold at all.

Since I don't want to derail this thread too much, you have a PM.

 

[longdi]

I said that Titanfall would put X1 over PS4 2:1 for march and comfortable lead for months to come. Hehehe, so now even without Titanfall, X1 has considerably closed the gap with Sony. Titanfall #gamechanger for Xbox team, it is going to be bloody in USA.

 

[Ludicrous Speed]

This is my first time saying this on this thread. Not sure where you're getting that from.

Haha, you're right. Sorry I got confused. Someone made the same argument a couple of times and I was confused why they kept saying it. My bad.

 

[anexanhume]

Edit: As fast as the market is shifting, I really have difficulty comprehending a 3DS device in its current manifestation being very appealing in three years. But, as we all know, it just takes the right software and a hardware revision to change our view.

2DS, the great handheld savior of our time.

 

[kinoki]

I don't agree. Some games were near broken on the PS3 and it did it no harm. That wont happen on the XB1. There is also no reason to believe the gap will get bigger. Devs will get better on both platforms.

We'll just have to wait and see. May the best guess bring fortune.

 

[biggersmaller]

Titanfall's impact on X1 sales will be interesting. It's not my cup-of-tea, but it's getting a lot of positive buzz from my childless Madden/GTA/CoD friends. They will likely go X1 just for this game. They could care less about any PS4 games (already my platform of choice).

The old school fanboy in me hopes the PS4 dominates, but I also understand healthy competition is ultimately good for gaming.

 

[Confidence Man]

I said that Titanfall would put X1 over PS4 2:1 for march and comfortable lead for months to come. Hehehe, so now even without Titanfall, X1 has considerably closed the gap with Sony. Titanfall #gamechanger for Xbox team, it is going to be bloody in USA.

Xbone will be lucky to get as close as it did in Feb. I doubt it will even match PS4 never mind selling 2:1.

 

[biggersmaller]

I don't agree. Some games were near broken on the PS3 and it did it no harm. That wont happen on the XB1. There is also no reason to believe the gap will get bigger. Devs will get better on both platforms.

Naw. The PS3 was harmed big time. In the wake of the PS2 juggernaut, a PlayStation selling behind a Xbox was seen as a huge failure and it was largely due to games running like crap at a higher cost.

A similarly prices PS3 with similarly running software would've been much more competitive in those early days.

 

[Abdiel]

I don't agree. Some games were near broken on the PS3 and it did it no harm. That wont happen on the XB1. There is also no reason to believe the gap will get bigger. Devs will get better on both platforms.

utqw
That doesn't really make sense. Last gen, both systems could perform at the same level, it was just a matter if whether devs would put in the effort to use the ps3 to get there. The x1 is literally not powerful enough to handle things the ps4 can. If games start pushing that level, the x1 will not be able to play the games at all without a total redesign.

 

[kswiston]

Damn. That's an enormous difference. Thanks for tracking the data down.

Here are software sales just for fun


Software Shipments to the Americas

GBA
FY 2002 - 23,380,000
FY 2003 - 30,660,000
FY 2004 - 42,430,000
TOTAL = 96,470,000

3DS
FY 2011 - 3,940,000 (launch)
FY 2012 - 12,640,000
FY 2013 - 16,170,000
FY 2014 - 19,700,000
TOTAL = 52,450,000

 

[tidalblitz]

I said that Titanfall would put X1 over PS4 2:1 for march and comfortable lead for months to come. Hehehe, so now even without Titanfall, X1 has considerably closed the gap with Sony. Titanfall #gamechanger for Xbox team, it is going to be bloody in USA.

So you're saying that X1 will sell about 400k-500k units for March? I don't think it'll come close to those numbers. As far as the gap closing, are you referring to total units sold or month to month numbers? Total units sold in US, X1 has fallen further behind in February.. the gap has widened instead of closing. Month to month, it does appear to have closed a bit. It will definitely be something to watch in the coming months.

 

[Jeff-DSA]

I said that Titanfall would put X1 over PS4 2:1 for march and comfortable lead for months to come. Hehehe, so now even without Titanfall, X1 has considerably closed the gap with Sony. Titanfall #gamechanger for Xbox team, it is going to be bloody in USA.

You're insane if you think 2:1 is possible. Yes, the XB1 will most likely outsell the PS4 in March, but 2:1 is not happening.

 

[havokt]

Here are software sales just for fun


Software Shipments to the Americas

GBA
FY 2002 - 23,380,000
FY 2003 - 30,660,000
FY 2004 - 42,430,000
TOTAL = 96,470,000

3DS
FY 2011 - 3,940,000 (launch)
FY 2012 - 12,640,000
FY 2013 - 16,170,000
FY 2014 - 19,700,000
TOTAL = 52,450,000

Wow not going to lie but that really puts things into perspective.

 

[Bsigg12]

utqw
That doesn't really make sense. Last gen, both systems could perform at the same level, it was just a matter if whether devs would put in the effort to use the ps3 to get there. The x1 is literally not powerful enough to handle things the ps4 can. If games start pushing that level, the x1 will not be able to play the games at all without a total redesign.

Your hyperbole is pretty great. The PS3 early on was so new and overly complicated that games came out broken because there wasn't near enough time to bang on the engine to make it easier. It took a few years working and optimizing engines until the PS3 finally started to show itself as a multiplat contender.

The Xbox One will never have to have any games redesigned to make it run. It's a matter of scaling settings back to get it running at an acceptable rate. This isn't like the Wii where entire games had to be designed around weak hardware and a odd control scheme.

 

[Xis]

If games start pushing that level, the x1 will not be able to play the games at all without a total redesign.

You can always cut framerate and resolution.

Right now the PS4 titles target 1080p / 60 FPS. The same titles can run on the XB1 by dropping to 30 FPS or 720p. My concern is that in the future some games may target 720p / 30 FPS on the PS4, leaving the XB1 to run at something even lower.

 

[theprodigy]

well to be fair, the 3DS software is more of a result of lower hardware than anything else, the attach rate is 3.89 vs 3.65

 

[Mrbob]

So you're saying that X1 will sell about 400k-500k units for March? I don't think it'll come close to those numbers. As far as the gap closing, are you referring to total units sold or month to month numbers? Total units sold in US, X1 has fallen further behind in February.. the gap has widened instead of closing. Month to month, it does appear to have closed a bit. It will definitely be something to watch in the coming months.

It's a strange narrative. Technically, yes, the XB1 closed the gap. However, the only reason the gap closed as much as it did is due to lack of PS4 supply. So it is tough to say where the PS4 would have topped out in good supply. One thing you can see from the numbers is the XB1 uptick had zero effect on PS4 hardware sales.

MS is still falling behind in their most popular territory.

 

[hodayathink]

I'd say the killing blow was the memory cards. If they had gone with SD cards, we'd all have vitas right now. But they wanted 20-$100 more profit, and it killed their console.

No. No no no no no.

If they didn't have the proprietary memory cards, stores would have probably stopped stocking them at some point last year, because they would have been selling a product where they barely make any money on the device, and make almost no money on any of the accessories that actually sell decently (Best Buy doesn't make much money selling SD cards), and the games are mostly bought digitally. It's been said multiple times (and more than once by me), but if the Vita used SD cards to start, it would have been the PSP Go part 2, in terms of how retail treated it.

And the killing blow was every major Western studio they have deciding they didn't want to make a game for it except for Cambridge, Bend, and a tiny team at Media Molecule, and them not forcing at least one of them to do one anyway.

 

[Sky Chief]

I said that Titanfall would put X1 over PS4 2:1 for march and comfortable lead for months to come. Hehehe, so now even without Titanfall, X1 has considerably closed the gap with Sony. Titanfall #gamechanger for Xbox team, it is going to be bloody in USA.

Um no, the gap increased...