Actually, both are responsible for the current development of economy. Most western countries suffer from the demographic change (or more precisely: the inability to find a solution for it), but some suffer less due to an efficient immigration (means: the ability to find the specialists which aren't in the country available). Brain drain is a serious problem in a lot of nation economies, while others gain massive advantages of it.C.T. said:
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NPD Sales Results for January 2009
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
JoshuaJSlone
Member
So PS3 had very few games at the top of the charts. While certainly failing to meet some of the software marks it did last year or the year before could be a Bad Thing, I want to say again that looking at a finite number of games that did the very best will always tend to overstate the presence of the dominant consoles. Even if buying patterns were identical among platforms, they'll simply have more games able to pass over whatever the threshold is. Since it's hard to come by lots of real figures, I just cooked up some random ones to play with.
I created a list of 100 random figures for each consoles. Each has a different max, with lower numbers being much more possible. For Wii I've set the max at 400K. For X360, 300K. For PS3, 200K. As things worked out, the total for these 300 games came out to
Wii: 5,361,218 (47.9%)
X360: 3,451,092 (30.8%)
PS3: 2,377,581 (21.2%)
But what about when we combine these lists and choose an arbitrary number from the top?
Top 5 (#5 game: 242,463)
Wii: 1,333,054 from 5 games (100.0%)
X360: 0 from 0 games (0.0%)
PS3: 0 from 0 games (0.0%)
Top 10 (#10 game: 168,535)
Wii: 1,891,860 from 8 games (84.1%)
X360: 358,158 from 2 games (15.9%)
PS3: 0 from 0 games (0.0%)
Top 20 (#20 game: 129,473)
Wii: 2,595,414 from 13 games (71.3%)
X360: 911,943 from 6 games (25.1%)
PS3: 131,542 from 1 game (3.6%)
Top 30 (#30 game: 97,341)
Wii: 3,214,541 from 19 games (68.1%)
X360: 1,258,799 from 9 games (26.7%)
PS3: 250,094 from 2 games (5.3%)
Top 40 (#40 game: 80,384)
Wii: 3,569,051 from 23 games (63.8%)
X360: 1,512,961 from 12 games (27.0%)
PS3: 514,281 from 5 games (9.2%)
Top 50 (#50 game: 67,912)
Wii: 4,015,559 from 29 games (63.4%)
X360: 1,651,870 from 14 games (26.1%)
PS3: 667,904 from 7 games (10.5%)
Top 100 (#100 game: 36,804)
Wii: 4,669,542 from 42 games (53.1%)
X360: 2,595,609 from 34 games (29.5%)
PS3: 1,524,713 from 24 games (17.3%)
Top 200 (#200 game: 9,381)
Wii: 5,246,804 from 70 games (48.3%)
X360: 3,352,618 from 69 games (30.9%)
PS3: 2,260,245 from 61 games (20.8%)
Of course this is not a perfect reflection of sales reality. There won't be an identical number of games on each console, the sales spread won't be so random and even between nothing and the maximum, and so on.
I created a list of 100 random figures for each consoles. Each has a different max, with lower numbers being much more possible. For Wii I've set the max at 400K. For X360, 300K. For PS3, 200K. As things worked out, the total for these 300 games came out to
Wii: 5,361,218 (47.9%)
X360: 3,451,092 (30.8%)
PS3: 2,377,581 (21.2%)
But what about when we combine these lists and choose an arbitrary number from the top?
Top 5 (#5 game: 242,463)
Wii: 1,333,054 from 5 games (100.0%)
X360: 0 from 0 games (0.0%)
PS3: 0 from 0 games (0.0%)
Top 10 (#10 game: 168,535)
Wii: 1,891,860 from 8 games (84.1%)
X360: 358,158 from 2 games (15.9%)
PS3: 0 from 0 games (0.0%)
Top 20 (#20 game: 129,473)
Wii: 2,595,414 from 13 games (71.3%)
X360: 911,943 from 6 games (25.1%)
PS3: 131,542 from 1 game (3.6%)
Top 30 (#30 game: 97,341)
Wii: 3,214,541 from 19 games (68.1%)
X360: 1,258,799 from 9 games (26.7%)
PS3: 250,094 from 2 games (5.3%)
Top 40 (#40 game: 80,384)
Wii: 3,569,051 from 23 games (63.8%)
X360: 1,512,961 from 12 games (27.0%)
PS3: 514,281 from 5 games (9.2%)
Top 50 (#50 game: 67,912)
Wii: 4,015,559 from 29 games (63.4%)
X360: 1,651,870 from 14 games (26.1%)
PS3: 667,904 from 7 games (10.5%)
Top 100 (#100 game: 36,804)
Wii: 4,669,542 from 42 games (53.1%)
X360: 2,595,609 from 34 games (29.5%)
PS3: 1,524,713 from 24 games (17.3%)
Top 200 (#200 game: 9,381)
Wii: 5,246,804 from 70 games (48.3%)
X360: 3,352,618 from 69 games (30.9%)
PS3: 2,260,245 from 61 games (20.8%)
Of course this is not a perfect reflection of sales reality. There won't be an identical number of games on each console, the sales spread won't be so random and even between nothing and the maximum, and so on.
I just found Jokeropia posted these, I'm not sure we've discussed them properly yet:JoshuaJSlone said:
They aren't for the full year unfortunately, but they are still significantly better than random.
edit:
Pixel counting: 1 pixel ~=> 957.4k units
All Jan-Sep, obviously
Code:
360 2008 26.0px => 24.9M
PS2 2008 27.5px => 26.3M
PS3 2008 17.0px => 16.3M
Wii 2008 35.5px => 34.0M
NGC 2008 1.0px => 1.0M*
XBX 2008 1.5px => 1.4M*
*margin of error on these two is > 30%, so bewareConsole splits deduced from there:
360
S2S3:Wii ~= 25:26:16:33360
S3:Wii ~= 33:22:45360
S3 ~= 60:40edit edit:
LTD hardware share averaged over the Jan-Sep period:
360
S3:Wii ~= 42:18:40Month-to-month hardware share averaged over the Jan-Sep period (="YTD" share through Sep 2008):
360
S3:Wii ~= 22:24:54Now compare that again to the software shares from the Nintendo chart:
360
S3:Wii ~= 33:22:45For all three, software shares are
There are no outliers either way.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Interesting. It makes sense in general that both userbase from the past, and multiple purchases from new users would have a strong effect, but it's quite something that the software works out to so near to a direct split between those measures.bcn-ron said:LTD hardware share averaged over the Jan-Sep period:
360
Month-to-month hardware share averaged over the Jan-Sep period (="YTD" share through Sep 2008):
360
Now compare that again to the software shares from the Nintendo chart:
360
For all three, software shares are proportional to some middle ground between LTD hardware base and ongoing rate of hardware sales.
There are no outliers either way.
Though it's certainly less safe to try to apply something like that to a much smaller timeframe, for January it'd work out something like...
360
S3:Wii YTD/current/monthly share 26:17:57360
S3:Wii LTD share averaging the after-December and after-January versions 36:18:46Halfway between those two 31:17:52
Square Enix have released their wordwide software numbers from April 1 through Dec 31 2008. Not sure if it has been posted yet so feel free to start a new thread as I don't have the rights to do so
I'm actually a bit surprised by the IU/LR numbers. And Crisis Core must be around 2m worldwide by now.
Edit: Actually, Kotaku has some LTD numbers: http://kotaku.com/5154094/what-games-were-selling-april-+-december-2008
I'm actually a bit surprised by the IU/LR numbers. And Crisis Core must be around 2m worldwide by now.
Edit: Actually, Kotaku has some LTD numbers: http://kotaku.com/5154094/what-games-were-selling-april-+-december-2008
I found it pretty shocking that PS2 software still edged out Xbox 360 (and PS3 too of course, by a much wider margin). ASP was probably way low, but I had thought it had already lost so much mindshare and retail shelf space that it just couldn't compete anymore either way.JoshuaJSlone said:Interesting. It makes sense in general that both userbase from the past, and multiple purchases from new users would have a strong effect, but it's quite something that the software works out to so near to a direct split between those measures.
Though it's certainly less safe to try to apply something like that to a much smaller timeframe, for January it'd work out something like...
360
360
Halfway between those two 31:17:52
Version 3.0
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
That's quite an interesting exercise, and I think it makes its point very well. Thanks.
I also think that the people who need that point made to them won't pay much attention...
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Fuu said:
If it makes you feel better, it outsold Rings of Fate in the US
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Link said:
Who said anything about the Wii this is a comparison of the SNES vs the PSX...
lowlylowlycook
Member
bcn-ron said:
How many PS2 titles even charted in 2008?
Just goes to show how much the highly frontloaded sales on the PS3/360 combined with just getting info on the top sellers distort our view of the sales situation.
I'm pixel-counting the console-only chart now, but for 2007, not 2008. Different data. Let's check whether what I said earlier holds for that as well.
130px <=> 100M units
1px <~=> 769.2k units
Jan-Sep software units (NPD via Nintendo)
Software market splits in the period:
360S2S3:Wii ~= 30:46:7:17
360S3:Wii ~= 55:14:31
360S3 ~= 80:20
LTD hardware share averaged over the period:
360S3:Wii ~= 58:14:28
Monthly hardware shares averaged over the period (="YTD 2007" share through September):
360S3:Wii ~= 33:17:50
Now we go back to the software market split and observe whether or not that is the happy middle ground between LTD hardware shares and month-to-month hardware shares:
360S3:Wii ~= 55:14:31
Answer: the software sales shares are still bounded by the two hardware shares, but they are farther away from their medium than the 2008 results. The LTD hardware share seems dominant. Which is to say that software sales for all three platforms were almost exactly proportional to their LTD hardware shares from Jan through Sep 2007.
130px <=> 100M units
1px <~=> 769.2k units
Jan-Sep software units (NPD via Nintendo)
Code:
360 2007 28.0px => 21.5M
GCN 2007 6.5px => 5.0M
PS2 2007 43.0px => 33.1M
PS3 2007 7.0px => 5.4M
Wii 2007 16.0px => 12.3M
XBX 2007 7.5px => 5.8MSoftware market splits in the period:
360
S2S3:Wii ~= 30:46:7:17360
S3:Wii ~= 55:14:31360
S3 ~= 80:20LTD hardware share averaged over the period:
360
S3:Wii ~= 58:14:28Monthly hardware shares averaged over the period (="YTD 2007" share through September):
360
S3:Wii ~= 33:17:50Now we go back to the software market split and observe whether or not that is the happy middle ground between LTD hardware shares and month-to-month hardware shares:
360
S3:Wii ~= 55:14:31Answer: the software sales shares are still bounded by the two hardware shares, but they are farther away from their medium than the 2008 results. The LTD hardware share seems dominant. Which is to say that software sales for all three platforms were almost exactly proportional to their LTD hardware shares from Jan through Sep 2007.
reggieandTFE
Member
So Dragon Quest IV did about half Final Fantasy Tactics A2's number, and a third of FFIV DS's total (in the US)? That's actually not bad considering it's been out less time and is a less known property in the US. I would hope DQV's sales will be a little bit better; is VI already coming out for sure in the US?
GarthVaderUK
Banned
dork said:
Those are just the sales numbers for the US in the January NPD period (4th to 31st).
frankie_baby
Member
no thats usa onlydork said: