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NPD Sales Results for January 2009
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
Bluemercury
Member
:lolAniHawk said:
In terms of chart positions or in terms of unit sales?Narcosis said:
I don't have an accurate model for it, but it seems normal that the distance between chart entries gets smaller fast as you go down the list. Maybe placing #35 isn't all that much worse than placing #18 (maybe half? two thirds?), but the former would mean nobody sees you, while the latter does get GAF's attention.
I want to say it's roughly exponential decay, but I haven't crunched the numbers yet.
I think it'd be fair to expect PS3 owners to buy more games actually, because the system is more expensive, which should skew the audience a bit towards splooge-happy. OTOH yes, it's also fair enough to say that PS3 owners, especially early adopters, are more likely to be movie buffs, and that will take their attention away from games, to some extent.Narcosis said:
I think marketing and advertising (for individual games) is becoming a problem. SCE almost seems to follow the "build it and they will come" approach now while both Nintendo and Microsoft have spent big on marketing this gen.
It's helping the Xbox 360 that it has mechanisms built in that curb used sales (achievements, cross-game invites), and the PS3 isn't matching that. No other system does.
I think these are the key factors to any differences in software buying habits. It's hard to say how it should all balance out.
bcn-ron said:
I think is highly accurate, take LBP for example. Every commercial I ever saw for LBP did nothing to tell me what the game was about, they tried to display the design aspects of the game but not once did it ever appear to be a game.
And look at Killzone 2, its supposed to be their next big game but yet no ads are airing and there is no promotion outside of places like Gamestop, while Microsoft for example is pushing Halo Wars into Walmart displays and Sega is pushing a dual House of the Dead Overkill/Madworld commercial onto the cable networks.
Go back to E3 and look, Nintendo pushed Shaun White, Clone Wars, and Call of Duty WaW, as third party games..all 3 had promotion and Clone Wars was the only one that was not a really big success. For 1st party they showed Wii Music, Animal Crossing, and Wii Sports Resort. Wii Music and Animal Crossing got tons of promotion even if Nintendo themselves found the sales "disappointing".
Microsoft showed that horrific movie making game at E3 and despite its poor sales they promoted the hell out of it on every network (especially entertainment oriented ones like MTV, VH1 and Spike)
But we come back to Sony and its like they are not even trying with their promotion of the PS3 as a game machine
CreatureX3
Member
:lol :lolFredescu said:
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
lowrider007 said:
Not really, they've just been buying another console, you know the one that actually appeal to them?
When consoles are still priced above $150 you're not going to see many multi-console owners.
boiled goose
good with gravy
MotherFan said:
hmmm...
wow, never thought of it that way...
Seems all demographics on the wii are expanding now that the userbase is just growing ridiculously fast...
timetokill
Banned
AniHawk said:
Very true, and Iwata has noted the discrepancy. Then again, consoles in general seem to be dying over there. Handhelds are the present and probably the future.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
AniHawk said:
Well, just the last month.
I mean, December numbers aside for obvious reason, iirc in until novemeber the average Wii sales were at the very least 2.5x those of the ps3.
That said, I'm not saying Nintendo can rest on its laurels, on the opposite they really need to get their shit together: Wii it's barely outselling the ps3, the numbers are very very low and to be successfull Wii needs to grow at least at twice the pace on a weekly basis.
Then you know you've got an healthy market environment when the title that has sold more than thatcasual kiddie game it is actually a Call of Duty game!
Dash Kappei said:
Not only that, but the userbase hasn't grown much outside of the standard Wii _____/Nintendo first party title ... base. All sorts of third party games fail in Japan. The only reason we're getting a sequel to No More Heroes is because the US audience made it Grasshopper's best-selling game ever.
Man, what the hell is happening socially in Japan to make that country so cool to consoles now? Iwata mentioned something about the populace being "busier" in the last shareholders meeting transcript. I always believed that Japan foreshadowed a lot of electronic trends that we see years later in the US. The whole idea of Microsoft barely maintaining a presence, Sony doing alright and even mighty Nintendo slowing down there is very troubling.
lowlylowlycook
Member
Puncture said:
More like they decided not to fuck them. However they flirted with the Wii for a few hours out of boredom.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
AniHawk said:
No More Heros was a success in Europe too as well, Rising Star's most successfull game to date to be precise. Also, Grasshopper and Suda's games have always been pulling those kind of numbers in Japan, with again NMH being the "top" one. The game's budget says a lot of how that's possible, really. I honestly think we'll be able to say if the console can make 3d party core games a success will be only after Monster Hunter Tri. By that I mean if good, marketed, core games will still be relative failure after that game's released.
Because atm you really don't have anything that can compare to MGS, Resident Evil 5, Star Ocean or even Devil May Cry to attract those core gamers NOT interested in Nintendo titles: when you do have such a corebase in the bag (as Ps2 had), then mid-average to good titles can start ranking good numbers.
edited for better comprehension, I didn't mean that those titles will magically turn the tide, on the opposite I'm saying that the Wii lacked and lacks the big 3d party entries to give the console an healty fanbase built not only on Nintendo fans and uber casuals, so that with that corebase in the bag even minor 3d parties effort can start making good sales.
Wii's thje opposite: only minor 3d parties effort for 2 years and rolling with a few heavy hitters coming probably too late to make the kind of impact Wii needs to take the place of the Ps2 of ole.
jred250 said:
Variety of reasons...largely due to split userbases. Last gen, you could get a PS2 and more or less be all set with all genres of games. Wii had that momentum and potential at first, but 3rd parties wrote it off and didn't develop until it was too late, leaving the first couple of years with weak 3rd party offerings. PS3 development was too slow, leaving most of the software full of western games, not terribly appealing for such an expensive system. 360 had a similar first couple of years, but have at least made great efforts to court Japanese developers to make it an appealing platform to develop more niche titles for. So, most of the hardcore otaku gamers love it, but it's hardly mainstream. If you want the type of variety and quality in one spot, you look towards the DS.
Had the 3rd parties bet on the Wii right away and had steady releases of top quality games, I think that the situation would be quite different...
Dash Kappei said:
The thing is MH3 DQX and all of that for Wii is fine, and can certainly start to build a core base of gamers on Wii in Japan, but lets look at how late these games are coming into the gen. Third parties took to damn long. All of this stuff, RE5 and SO and all of these games with no entries on the #1 console in the country is IMO doing alot of harm to the console (whats the right word to use here.....) ecosystem?
I mean, the gamers are seemingly refusing to embrace the PS3 or 360 over there in the numbers they did the PS2. And the third parties are giving the same cold shoulder to the Wii. I think MH3 and DQX might do just fine, but will in the end be all for naught, it might just be too late to create a console that gets that 'fire' or even a mere spark of what the PS2 had there this gen.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
There were more factors involved there than just Monster Hunter. It was kind of a Monster Hunter -> Monster Hunter 2 -> New Colors -> System Revision -> Price drop -> Crisis Core -> More new colours -> Monster Hunter 2nd G -> More colours -> System revision -> Dissidia.Fredescu said:
There's no such thing as a free lunch. Things can certainly be turned around to an extent, but it requires a carefully planned SUSTAINED effort. Everyone keeps looking for that magic piece of software that will fix whatever is going wrong with each platform's fortunes, completely failing to realize that things will never turn around on just one piece of software.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
AniHawk said:
Third Party Japanese games are failing on just about every system there. The PSP, Wii, PS3, DS, and even the 360 have all had their successes and failures.
Oh I agree no one thing is going to fix it, but it was a couple of years after launch that Monster Hunter came out and put the PSP above the DS briefly right? That's all I'm saying, that a turnaround a couple of years after launch isn't unheard of. I don't even think that MH3 can give the Wii the same kind of bump MHF gave to the PSP, let alone sustained releases for the increase to be week to week rather than a brief bump.
Eteric Rice
Member
Flying_Phoenix said:
Probably has to do with the ressesion.
I think I've said this a few times already, though.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Segata Sanshiro said:
+1.
It was sustained effort that made the PSP a true competitor to the DS, as well as it was sustained effort that had Microsoft actually get their foot in the door in Japan.
Eteric Rice said:Probably has to do with the ressesion.
I think I've said this a few times already, though.
I'd agree with you if this wasn't how things have been for the past 2 or so years.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
Puncture said:
I definitely agree with you there, I was just writing my two cents as to why it isn't exactly "fair" to say that 3d party games aren't nearly as successfull as they should be looking at past generations' system leader: the situation about 3d parties' support is just too different to make a meaningful comparison.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Hardware sales were never the PSP's biggest problem. I don't think the precedent is meaningful here.Fredescu said:
The immediate goal for the US PS3 operation should be getting back to sustained parity sales with Xbox 360. A price cut is the way to get there, not a game or a new color.
Jan to Aug 2008 showed that PS3 can sell at parity to Xbox 360 even at a somewhat higher (average) price point, so it seems that consumers aren't completely oblivious to the extras and/or the brand. I think they could get back to parity (in the US) with a modest cut, maybe 50$. They don't have to match the Arcade price but they shouldn't let Microsoft get too far ahead on the price cutting either.
It's weird. Between the two Sony is the electronics manufacturer. Revising the hardware, scaling the costs down should be their strength.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Puncture said:
Bingo, DS has taken the lion's share of support this generation and that's why people have flocked to it.
Aside from Wii Music and Animal Crossing City Folk, Wii hasn't had a single significant release since Wii Fit! No wonder its sales are falling!
(To those who think that Nintendo can just rest on their laurels and keep riding on the success of their existing games, this is why Nintendo needs to continue making new games! It's not so bad outside Japan where the Wii continues to receive some significant 3rd Party games but people will always want something new to play, they don't want to just play only Mario Kart or Smash Bros forever!)
Spider_Jerusalem
Member
From their early sentences, it's quite clear they were very confident of the console being succesful at a higher price point, so probably while designing it they didn't put much effort into it being easily cost-cuttable. They came out of a very succesful generation, and didn't see Wii coming, nor Xbox 360's relative success.bcn-ron said:
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
1: Don't label Call of Duty as hardcore. It's one of the worst offenders for casual trash being labeled hardcore due to it's graphics. I brings nothing new to the table with FPS, nor has any depth.Opiate said:
2: I agree, it's difficult to make a great casual game. Nintendo had to accomplish a number of feats.
-Make casual games the primary focus of the system. Wii Sports came in the box, not Zelda. Wii Fit has a bigger ad campaign than Mario Galaxy.
-Design the system with casual games in mind. From the one big button on the Wiimote, to Wifi only, to the UI, to pointer tech and waggle, Nintendo had their sights on accessible games from the get go.
-Put enough resources behind casual games. Wii Sports is damn good and can't be easily replicated w/o good coding skills. You can't sleep on the fact that Wii Sports is head and shoulders above all motion sports games ever made. It's not just waggle but the whole package.
All these add up to large hurdles that put this generation out of reach and would require significant changes next gen to make it impossible. For MS to go after this consumer, they have to change so much of their DNA. Yeah, they can shove a game in with a controller but they have to establish that their system should be played with multiple people and during social functions, which is what makes Wii Play attractive. Nintendo nailed that with early marketing and focusing on older gamers, lapsed gamers, women gamers and non-gamers.
For Wii Fit, it's the casuals. People that are normally turned off by technology and things they don't understand. It means lowering the spotlight on Xbox Live and not forcing people to pay for it. I'm sure casuals don't even care for multiplayer. But the impression of Wii and 360 are miles apart. And each time MS focuses on multiplayer, Live, videos, a whole bunch of games with numbers in their name, they take one step away from casuals. It's not a few steps or a giant leap. It's a whole philosophy that MS will have to adopt to compete with Nintendo. That's why they have given up. Sony is a more likely candidate. Although I'm not sure they have a balls or creativity to fully think a radical change, like this, to completion.
I was completely with you till you uttered this line. One of the biggest draws to the Wii is the local multiplayer (thats why games like Mario Party 8, Carnival Games, Mario Kart, etc have sold as well as they have)
Now if you are talking about online multiplayer then you may have a point, but not all multiplayer has to be online
Link
The Autumn Wind
While I'm certainly not excusing Nintendo, I'm thinking they (incorrectly, as it turned out) figured they could afford to delay their own titles to include M+ support while third parties supplied some big games for the holidays. Not a completely absurd assumption, considering its sales. Though it turned out not a single company bothered to step up to the plate.Nuclear Muffin said:
timetokill
Banned
Anybody know when we're getting the prediction results? I forget who handles them, but I think I did fairly well this month
charlequin
Banned
bcn-ron said:
IMO the 360 already demonstrated that a price cut from $400 to $350 is largely irrelevant. If Sony want to cut the price in a way that will meaningfully affect their sales level, it needs to come all the way down to $299.
Psychotext
Member
Assuming you mean hardware... they're already done: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14757842&postcount=157timetokill said:Anybody know when we're getting the prediction results? I forget who handles them, but I think I did fairly well this month
Link said:
Not entirely true Ubisoft at least knew there was money to be made with Shaun White, which was a ground up effort on the Wii and not a port of the HD Twins version (and just happened to sell a lot more than either of those 2)
But yeah its funny that almost everyone here saw the opening Nintendo was giving them and they were completely oblivious
Link said:
Well in that case then yes nobody stepped up :lol
I wonder though why we continue to talk of Japanese sales in a US sales thread, there is a perfectly good thread for that
Or is that because the only way to keep consistently knocking the Wii is to hit its Japanese situation