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[metareferential]

Speaking of "good numbers" and "massive success" for Kinect, can we quantify this stuff before it launches to get some perspective in here?

What'd be "good numbers" for Kinect? At launch, and in the launch window?


I can't think of too many (read: none) comparable product launches to get any sort of sense of what would constitute a success/doing ok/failure, especially with this unique constellation and this far into the current generation.

I do not think we will ever agree on a valid scale for Kinect sales; if we look at sales considering Kinect as an accessory or as software, becoming million seller in (say, 2-3 ww) could be considered as a success, and I am sure Ms PR would jump on it right away.

I we take it as hardware, things change. We should wait longer to establish its failure or success.

It's difficult to tell, really.

I think we should treat it as hardware. Since Microsoft wants it to be a game-changer.

 

[Haunted]

In my books they'd be doing alright if they can sell 3 millionish in NA, 2 millionish in EU, and 10 in JP.

Thank you. But I think you forgot a "millionish" after the 10 for Ja-

oh.

Yeah.


Seriously though, 5 millionish in the first couple months... seems like a tall order, especially at that price. I'm sure the bundles will help a lot with that.

 

[Haunted]

dp

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I do remember GAF predicting Heavy Rain would bomb hard.

See, the thing about this kind of thing, my little puppy, is that the human mind does a funny trick where it remembers what it wants to or what is most appropriate to the current situation, while ignoring other data. The truth is that life is far more balanced than any of us tend to remember.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I predicted Heavy Rain would minimum break 500k because PS3 exclusives historically do.

 

[Penguin]

In my books they'd be doing alright if they can sell 3 millionish in NA, 2 millionish in EU, and 10 in JP.

Probably dumb question, but is this lifetime or for the year?

Seems low for a lifetime, but I guess depends on how long the life is.

Also seems too high for the year.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Thank you. But I think you forgot a "millionish" after the 10 for Ja-

oh.

Yeah.


Seriously though, 5 millionish in the first couple months... seems like a tall order, especially at that price. I'm sure the bundles will help a lot with that.

Oh, whoops, you meant launch window. I was talking lifetime. Um, just divide them in half, and that's my prediction for the first couple months. Christmas should be quite kind to Kincest, but I worry about it greatly after that.

I predicted Heavy Rain would minimum break 500k because PS3 exclusives historically do.

This is another problem with the whole "GAF SAID" thing. I have seen this board agree (let's say agree means 90% or so... there's always one or two people that disagree with anything) on two things in the entire time I've been here. GAF never says anything. Individual posters do, and pointing to a hivemind mentality when we pretty much do nothing but disagree with each other vehemently on these boards is really disingenuous and not helpful at all to creating good conversation.

 

[antiquegamer]

What did Rockband do on 360 during the first few months ? I am thinking that should be a good gauge of how successful (or not).

 

[Penguin]

What did Rockband do on 360 during the first few months ? I am thinking that should be a good gauge of how successful (or not).

The problem with that, I'd imagine would be that Rock Band was also available on other consoles at the time as well.

 

[Rainier]

I have seen this board agree (let's say agree means 90% or so... there's always one or two people that disagree with anything) on two things in the entire time I've been here

I'm assuming one was that the Wii would bomb. What was the other?

 

[AniHawk]

I'm assuming one was that the Wii would bomb. What was the other?

The DS bombing or at least, the PSP becoming the true successor to the GBA was a pretty strong sentiment, I think.

EDIT: Oh, but I guess Segata wasn't here for that.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

The DS bombing or at least, the PSP becoming the true successor to the GBA was a pretty strong sentiment, I think.

EDIT: Oh, but I guess Segata wasn't here for that.

Yeah, look up the announcement threads and you can get a good idea of what folks where saying. Go ahead and look up the DS announcement thread. It's full of great laughs.

 

[Rainier]

Yeah, look up the announcement threads and you can get a good idea of what folks where saying. Go ahead and look up the DS announcement thread. It's full of great laughs.

Guess that explains the whole Iwata Laughs meme. :lol

 

[dolemite]

best NPD thread by a mile:lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I'm assuming one was that the Wii would bomb. What was the other?

Nah, we certainly had nothing approaching agreement on the Wii. The two things are: Super Mario Galaxy is a good game and the Dark Knight is a good movie. The DS thing was before my time, but yes, that would probably qualify, too.

Aside from those, even the craziest of assertions have had proponents here. Even $599 had a good contingent of defenders. If GAF is a hivemind, we're the worst fucking hivemind I've ever seen.

 

[Penguin]

Guess that explains the whole Iwata Laughs meme. :lol

The Iwata Laugh meme actually comes from the Iwata Asks interviews that are posted on Nintendo.com

 

[C4Lukins]

Speaking of "good numbers" and "massive success" for Kinect, can we quantify this stuff before it launches to get some perspective in here?

What'd be "good numbers" for Kinect? At launch, and in the launch window?


I can't think of too many (read: none) comparable product launches to get any sort of sense of what would constitute a success/doing ok/failure, especially with this unique constellation and this far into the current generation.

I think the only way to gage it in the shorterm, meaning the next 6 months or so is by looking at 360 hardware sales. Assuming no weird shortages or anything like that, will the 360 have its best holiday season ever, and by a nice margin? Will 6 months from now the 360 be consistently competitive with both the Wii and PS3 and selling more then 25% better average month to month YOY then the 360 has in the past.

Outside of that, it is just going to be really difficult to put a number on what success would be. I mean if Kinect sell 3 million units worldwide this Holiday, and lets say Kinect Sports sells 500K, is that a success, I really have no idea. You could even argue that if it could just help maintain consistent 360 sales for another year without a real true pricedrop that would make it successful, although probably not nearly what MS is hoping for. I think we will know very quickly if it is a phenom or not though just by media coverage of whether or not it is the big holiday item or not.

 

[Danthrax]

Guess that explains the whole Iwata Laughs meme. :lol

No, that comes from the Iwata Asks interviews on Nintendo's website in which Iwata frequently laughs in the transcripts. Someone says something that seems to make him uncomfortable, like about future plans, and the transcript simply says:

Iwata: (laughs)

 

[Regulus Tera]

I predicted Heavy Rain would minimum break 500k because PS3 exclusives historically do.

Valkyria Chronicles

 

[ULTROS!]

Didn't Valkyria Chronicles do well (albeit slow-paced)?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Didn't Valkyria Chronicles do well (albeit slow-paced)?

Yeah, but it didn't break 500k in NA. Not even halfway.

 

[ULTROS!]

Assuming it has done around 150~200k, I say that's pretty decent for a Strategy JRPG.

Oh well, at least it did good enough to warrant a sequel.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Assuming it's done around 150~200k, I say that's pretty decent for a Strategy JRPG.

Oh well, at least it did good enough to warrant a sequel.

Yup. Shame we won't be able to say the same for Valkyria 2.

 

[poppabk]

Speaking of "good numbers" and "massive success" for Kinect, can we quantify this stuff before it launches to get some perspective in here?

What'd be "good numbers" for Kinect? At launch, and in the launch window?


I can't think of too many (read: none) comparable product launches to get any sort of sense of what would constitute a success/doing ok/failure, especially with this unique constellation and this far into the current generation.

I think that looking at Wii Sports Resort numbers and the install bases, 10 million in a year would be classed as a success.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Valkyria Chronicles

I meant ones published by Sony!

 

[PSGames]

I think that looking at Wii Sports Resort numbers and the install bases, 10 million in a year would be classed as a success.

WSR is a game not a $150 piece of hardware.

 

[ULTROS!]

I meant ones published by Sony!

White Knight Chronicles?
Siren: New Translation/Blood Curse?

 

[boiled goose]

WSR is a game not a $150 piece of hardware.

not that even that really means anything... very few games sell 10m.

It is an interesting question though. What is the success metric for kinect?

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Yup. Shame we won't be able to say the same for Valkyria 2.

Valkyria 2 probably costed a fraction of what 1 did to make. Sega seems intent on making VC a franchise, otherwise they wouldn't have greenlit a crappy anime.

 

[Cipherr]

Yeah, look up the announcement threads and you can get a good idea of what folks where saying. Go ahead and look up the DS announcement thread. It's full of great laughs.

Yeah, there were some gems:

Count me into the 90% that knows this is lame and will bomb.

I knew their entire announcement would be a let down. People were predicting holograms, gyration controllers, gamecube mini, gba next.....but instead we get a fricken dual screen handheld?

It's a gimmick. Gamers won't buy.

And separate processors for each screens? Either this thing won't be a portable, or the graphics tech will be SNES quality(again).
This thing will drain batteries in 30 minutes attempting to do 3d graphics.

All in all, it sounds lame.

I predict lots of laughing by the press when it's shown at E3.

:lol GAF Cache of the DS announcement

http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg1-01-20-2004.htm

Page 2: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg2-01-20-2004.htm

Page 3: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg3-01-20-2004.htm

Page 4: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg4-01-20-2004.htm

Page 5: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg5-01-20-2004.htm


GAF reacting to the reveal of the Wiimote

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=63251


It seems from the threads that the opinion was pretty divided on both though.

GAF hit the roof though when the price for the Wii was announced

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=119185

There was some serious hive mind "dooooooomed" shit going on in that thread.

 

[C4Lukins]

I think that looking at Wii Sports Resort numbers and the install bases, 10 million in a year would be classed as a success.

So it just needs to sell better then Halo 3's worldwide total sales over the course of a single year to be successful. Well that seems reasonable.

 

[PSGames]

not that even that really means anything... very few games sell 10m.

It is an interesting question though. What is the success metric for kinect?

Well we can't really compare it to anything nor do any of us know Kinect's profit margins so its hard to say. But as long as it makes a profit and prolongs the life of the 360 I'm pretty sure MS will deem it a success.

 

[WasteLand Soldier]

it needs enough to sustain developement on. i'd say within its first year it needs to match what 360 sold in its first year if not double because of the price point and existing userbase.

 

[antiquegamer]

To be fair about the DS though, it was not really until Nintendogs (the killer app) and the "slim" version (DS lite) that the DS actually took off. I know I got the DS after the lite come out along with copy of Nintendo dog for my daughter.

 

[Prine]

GAF also said the DS, 360, and Wii would bomb. Ah, good times.

Xbox 1.5! And do you remember the Dreamcast comparisons?

Those people are back in their holes, hoping for the demise of Kinnect. This will be fun.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Xbox 1.5! And do you remember the Dreamcast comparisons?

Those people are back in their holes, hoping for the demise of Kinnect. This will be fun.

but prine you are a member of gaf therefore you must have also predicted the failure of the 360

 

[wizword]

Kinect is going to do fine but everything about kinect has been drivel on neogaf. People are expecting higher than 15 million ltd or less than 3 million. I haven't seen one kinect topic/ prediction that didn't have such extreme predictions of it's success or failure. Microsoft is expecting 3 million ww by end of holidays which I think won't be met better yet above it though

 

[Paracelsus]

Kinect is going to do fine but everything about kinect has been drivel on neogaf. People are expecting higher than 15 million ltd or less than 3 million. I haven't seen one kinect topic/ prediction that didn't have such extreme predictions of it's success or failure. Microsoft is expecting 3 million ww by end of holidays which I think won't be met better yet above it though

Kinect has a price thought for a family purchase and the line up sure doesn't help, of course (core?)gaf doesn't feel good about it. That's all.

 

[The Technomancer]

not that even that really means anything... very few games sell 10m.

It is an interesting question though. What is the success metric for kinect?

If you like Kinect, then however much it sells is a huge Wii killing success. If you hate Kinect, then it will never sell enough to be a success.

My personal metric isn't any hard numbers, but rather a comparison to the Wii. If the Wii moves significantly less units this year (say, around half as many) as holidays past (implication here being that the influence of Kinect affected its sales), and if Kinect sells 2-3 times as much as the Wii, then I'll call it a phenomenal success. If it sells close to as much as the Wii, then it did decent.

 

[jcm]

Kinect is going to do fine but everything about kinect has been drivel on neogaf. People are expecting higher than 15 million ltd or less than 3 million. I haven't seen one kinect topic/ prediction that didn't have such extreme predictions of it's success or failure. Microsoft is expecting 3 million ww by end of holidays which I think won't be met better yet above it though

I don't remember MS giving an actual forecast. I know Pachter says 2-4M this year, and Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital says 4M this year.

I don't think we're going to get any solid numbers, though, unless MS announces them. There's going to be a mix of bundles and accessory sales.

 

[snoopeasystreet]

Do we know how Kinect will appear in the NPD results. Will it be classed as an accessory or will it be "Kinect Adventures"?

 

[cw_sasuke]

If you like Kinect, then however much it sells is a huge Wii killing success. If you hate Kinect, then it will never sell enough to be a success.

My personal metric isn't any hard numbers, but rather a comparison to the Wii. If the Wii moves significantly less units this year (say, around half as many) as holidays past (implication here being that the influence of Kinect affected its sales), and if Kinect sells 2-3 times as much as the Wii, then I'll call it a phenomenal success. If it sells close to as much as the Wii, then it did decent.

After 4 years of breaking one sales record after another wii sales will slow down and it wont have anything to do with Kinect or Move.

 

[charlequin]

Speaking of "good numbers" and "massive success" for Kinect, can we quantify this stuff before it launches to get some perspective in here?

What'd be "good numbers" for Kinect? At launch, and in the launch window?

I think Opiate's proposed standard (that Kinect leads to an acceleration of the 360 hardware sales, and prevents a YoY decline in 2011, IIRC) is probably a good starting point.

Broadly speaking, I think sales in to existing 360 customers are basically irrelevant (and based on the standalone pricing, I think Microsoft feels similarly) while sales of the bundle are what's really important to the device's success.

 

[WasteLand Soldier]

yeah but saying that it should still do better if not double 360s launch numbers for that exact reason.

 

[Vyer]

I'm thinking that Kinect could do really well this fall. At least one of the 'motion' add ons at least. The marketing push is going to be there.

A friend told me his Gamestop took down their PS2 section off the wall. That's kind of a milestone. The new Kinect and Move sections took up the added space.

 

[Kafel]

 

[Penguin]

Since we are setting parameters of success for Kinect, what will be the guidelines for the Move?

 

[RedStep]

Yeah, there were some gems:

:lol GAF Cache of the DS announcement

http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg1-01-20-2004.htm

Page 2: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg2-01-20-2004.htm

Page 3: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg3-01-20-2004.htm

Page 4: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg4-01-20-2004.htm

Page 5: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg5-01-20-2004.htm


GAF reacting to the reveal of the Wiimote

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=63251


It seems from the threads that the opinion was pretty divided on both though.

GAF hit the roof though when the price for the Wii was announced

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=119185

There was some serious hive mind "dooooooomed" shit going on in that thread.

God, I just got lost in the past reading those...

You'd think that we'd learn from those mistakes. Feel how you want, but at least temper your proclamations; it may fail, or it may be a runaway success. People here have a long and storied history of being 100% wrong. Wouldn't you rather be the guy that said nothing than the guy with a giant serving of crow on his plate?

For the record, I think Kinect will be a success.

 

[Rainier]

Yeah, there were some gems:


:lol GAF Cache of the DS announcement

http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg1-01-20-2004.htm

Page 2: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg2-01-20-2004.htm

Page 3: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg3-01-20-2004.htm

Page 4: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg4-01-20-2004.htm

Page 5: http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive/nintendo-mystery-product-pg5-01-20-2004.htm


GAF reacting to the reveal of the Wiimote

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=63251


It seems from the threads that the opinion was pretty divided on both though.

GAF hit the roof though when the price for the Wii was announced

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=119185

There was some serious hive mind "dooooooomed" shit going on in that thread.

Thanks for the links, that was an entertaining read. :lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

The guy that said nothing is a fucking callow weiner. I'd rather be wrong a thousand times than be the schlep who was too wimpy to voice his or her own opinion.

But hey, maybe you're right and "GAF" is always 100% wrong - I guess that's why Dyack is still try to count all the cash, hookers, and blow from Too Human, yeah?