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[Sydle]

The guy that said nothing is a fucking callow weiner. I'd rather be wrong a thousand times than be the schlep who was too wimpy to voice his or her own opinion.

But hey, maybe you're right and "GAF" is always 100% wrong - I guess that's why Dyack is still try to count all the cash, hookers, and blow from Too Human, yeah?

GAF isn't always wrong and its certainly not right all the time either. Utlimately, there's absolutely no sense in putting a significant amount stock in GAF's opinion ever.

 

[RedStep]

The guy that said nothing is a fucking callow weiner. I'd rather be wrong a thousand times than be the schlep who was too wimpy to voice his or her own opinion.

But hey, maybe you're right and "GAF" is always 100% wrong - I guess that's why Dyack is still try to count all the cash, hookers, and blow from Too Human, yeah?

It's not being a "fucking callow weiner" to realize that you don't know what will happen, and to accept that. You can still have an opinion and debate the topic without resorting to "This will fail so hard! See you next gen, Nintendo!".

It's not that GAF is always wrong, it's that we're a small subset of a huge community. We tend to be pretty good at judging appeal within our realm (Too Human) and pretty bad at judging things outside our realm (Wii, etc).

 

[GarthVaderUK]

I think Kinect will be mildly successful at bringing a 'new audience' to 360, though it'll be no-where near as successful as the Wii. I reckon it'll just about do its job of aiding in extending the 360's life cycle by helping 360 hardware sales stay consistently decent for longer, but it won't be a huge revolution for the console.

Move could be more of a success with the traditional gamer crowd and existing PS3 owners (compared to Kinect and existing 360 owners), but for the mass market I don't think it'll appear different enough to distract from the less expensive and highly popular Wii and its huge library of waggle games (even though we know Move is more accurate).

We need a predictions thread before Move is released, someone who isn't as lazy as I am should make one!

 

[cw_sasuke]

It's not being a "fucking callow weiner" to realize that you don't know what will happen, and to accept that. You can still have an opinion and debate the topic without resorting to "This will fail so hard! See you next gen, Nintendo!".

It's not that GAF is always wrong, it's that we're a small subset of a huge community. We tend to be pretty good at judging appeal within our realm (Too Human) and pretty bad at judging things outside our realm (Wii, etc).

So who cares if youre wrong ? We do it just for fun and because its our hobby. Thats what exchanging oopinions is all about.

btw. After e3 2006 most reasonable Gaffers thought Wii would sell like hotcakes.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

It's not being a "fucking callow weiner" to realize that you don't know what will happen, and to accept that. You can still have an opinion and debate the topic without resorting to "This will fail so hard! See you next gen, Nintendo!".

It's not that GAF is always wrong, it's that we're a small subset of a huge community. We tend to be pretty good at judging appeal within our realm (Too Human) and pretty bad at judging things outside our realm (Wii, etc).

Sorry, but you suggested it's better to stay quiet than to be wrong, and I'm never going to agree with that. You're still wrong even if you don't voice your opinion, the only difference is that you lacked the faith in yourself to speak it.

 

[Rainier]

Sorry, but you suggested it's better to stay quiet than to be wrong, and I'm never going to agree with that. You're still wrong even if you don't voice your opinion, the only difference is that you lacked the faith in yourself to speak it.

You know who's never wrong? The silent majority, the one's who speak with their wallets.

FWIW I think kinect will only sell moderately well, it won't drain off the Wii's casual customers.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

You know who's never wrong? The silent majority, the one's who speak with their wallets.

FWIW I think kinect will only sell moderately well, it won't drain off the Wii's casual customers.

No, they're wrong sometimes, too. And we all speak with our wallets, man.

I mean, what is your point here? That we shouldn't try to predict the future? This is a discussion board, if you like being silent, the library is just one bus away.

 

[Lyude77]

It's not being a "fucking callow weiner" to realize that you don't know what will happen, and to accept that. You can still have an opinion and debate the topic without resorting to "This will fail so hard! See you next gen, Nintendo!".

It's not that GAF is always wrong, it's that we're a small subset of a huge community. We tend to be pretty good at judging appeal within our realm (Too Human) and pretty bad at judging things outside our realm (Wii, etc).

I think it's better to just state your prediction while recognizing that you could be wrong. I already did that earlier in this thread when I said that Halo: Reach wouldn't spur sales much, but I could be underestimating it. Yeah, it makes your point look weaker when you admit that you aren't a psychic, but I think the removal of arrogance that it brings is worth the "this is my view" statement.

For the record, I think Kinect will sell less than Segata Sanshiro's measure of success as well as fail to spur hardware sales significantly after the first month. Move likely won't spur hardware sales much at all and will sell worse generally (maybe like 3 million WW lifetime). I probably have a high measure of success, but if either doesn't sell over 5 million lifetime, I'm thinking it was a failure. 10 million+ would be excellent for either.

As a side note, I still think it's strange that a board pretty much only used for a fitness game has sold/will sell better than the two accessories designed to be the future of the HD systems (probably better than them combined, too). I understand why, I just think it's strange.

 

[Rainier]

You can still have an opinion and debate the topic without resorting to "This will fail so hard! See you next gen, Nintendo!".
.

Ya, but it's this attitude that make reading GAF (especially these NPD threads) so entertaining. Lets face it, this thread was boring until the console warriors (RIP) came in to proclaim that Microsoft was now doomed (after winning the month).

Edit:

No, they're wrong sometimes, too. And we all speak with our wallets, man.

I mean, what is your point here? That we shouldn't try to predict the future? This is a discussion board, if you like being silent, the library is just one bus away.

Ignoring the fact that I haven't been silent in this thread, and I did make a prediction regarding Kinect, my post was more of me sticking up for RedStep, one of the better (IMO) Juniors lately. Junior members on this board have to walk a pretty fine line on this board, and the only compensation is looking at old threads and laughing at those who were totally wrong. Hell, Anihawk's prediction of the DS was hilarious, but I still think s/he is one of the great members here. It's all in good fun.

 

[jcm]

It's not being a "fucking callow weiner" to realize that you don't know what will happen, and to accept that. You can still have an opinion and debate the topic without resorting to "This will fail so hard! See you next gen, Nintendo!".

It's not that GAF is always wrong, it's that we're a small subset of a huge community. We tend to be pretty good at judging appeal within our realm (Too Human) and pretty bad at judging things outside our realm (Wii, etc).

In the words of Uncle Junior, "next time you come, you come heavy or not at all."

 

[RedStep]

Ya, but it's this attitude that make reading GAF (especially these NPD threads) so entertaining. Lets face it, this thread was boring until the console warriors (RIP) came in to proclaim that Microsoft was now doomed (after winning the month).

I hate to admit it, but you're right. It was a boring thread. Dammit, I need to meditate on this.

Also, I should have stated my initial point better. I was only referring to the "I know what will happen and I won't listen to you" declarations (see: the Attach Rate discussion in this thread). Not at all to discussion or predictions in general.

Edit: But as mentioned above, maybe those are what make it fun to read 30 pages on the same topic, so I'm resting the point.

 

[charlequin]

Also, I should have stated my initial point better. I was only referring to the "I know what will happen and I won't listen to you" declarations (see: the Attach Rate discussion in this thread). Not at all to discussion or predictions in general.

Right, I think that's an important distinction. It's important to keep one's mind open to the potential that your predictions are wrong, but man, it's weaksauce to not actually state one's actual expectations. Preface if you have to! "Obviously this is a shot in the dark, but I think Kinect will sell 10,000,000,000 units and come with free orange juice." Like so!

 

[yankeehater]

Right, I think that's an important distinction. It's important to keep one's mind open to the potential that your predictions are wrong, but man, it's weaksauce to not actually state one's actual expectations. Preface if you have to! "Obviously this is a shot in the dark, but I think Kinect will sell 10,000,000,000 units and come with free orange juice." Like so!

Orange juice sux fuck Kinect biggest fail ever confirmed.

 

[vazel]

Hahahahaha @ asian justin bieber. :lol

 

[BishopLamont]

but prine you are a member of gaf therefore you must have also predicted the failure of the 360

:lol

People are acting like GAF is unanimous on everything. (Exception being the GO, which any monkey would see as a bomb from far away)

Orange juice sux fuck Kinect biggest fail ever confirmed.

WRONG. OJ would make Kinect a bigger success than the Wii.

 

[Sadist]

So awesome those old threads :lol

 

[Boney]

Hahahahaha @ asian justin bieber. :lol

It freaks me out bad.. I just can't stand looking at it

 

[yankeehater]

WRONG. OJ would make Kinect a bigger success than the Wii.

My god I am so fucking sick or reading post by all these OJ fanboys. OJ sux face facts. Apple is where it is at!

 

[ULTROS!]

Won't the real Justin Bieber freak you out more?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I think if you counted the posts from announcement threads and added up all the "fors" and all the "against" you'd find the GAF majority opinion on whatever you were talking about.

If in the DS thread there was 80% against then GAF as a majority was wrong. You can still state your opinion on what you think but still remain open minded enough to know that anything could happen. It's only the posters that state their opinion like it's fact that get laughed at later on.

An open minded opinion and a closed minded opinion are two totally different things.

 

[BishopLamont]

My god I am so fucking sick or reading post by all these OJ fanboys. OJ sux face facts. Apple is where it is at!

http://googlefight.com/index.php?lang=en_GB&word1=apple+juice&word2=orange+juice

I have proof to back it up, try again. Fanboy.

 

[Boney]

Won't the real Justin Bieber freak you out more?

Your earlier avatar made me wanna punch it.

This one really freaks me out..

Can you please change it?

 

[yankeehater]

http://googlefight.com/index.php?lang=en_GB&word1=apple+juice&word2=orange+juice

I have proof to back it up, try again. Fanboy.

You cant be serious. Every one that is not a blind fanboy knows that the OJ lobby just moneyhats Google.

 

[BishopLamont]

You cant be serious. Every one that is not a blind fanboy knows that the OJ lobby just moneyhats Google.

Typical conspiracy believing fanboy. I bet you think MS and Sony money hatted all those pretty third party games too huh?

 

[yankeehater]

Typical conspiracy believing fanboy. I bet you think MS and Sony money hatted all those pretty third party games too huh?

Of course they did. Everyone knows that compaines hate putting out games and they only do it because they are forced/bribed to. It's science.

 

[ULTROS!]

Your earlier avatar made me wanna punch it.

This one really freaks me out..

Can you please change it?

I can change my avatar to something that resembles my current avatar but its reaaaaalllly freaky!

But Justin Bieber is still freakier.

 

[Boney]

I can change my avatar to something that resembles my current avatar but its reaaaaalllly freaky!

But Justin Bieber is still freakier.

No no! I was talking about the Asian Beiber

Love your Mr Saturn avatar.

 

[ULTROS!]

I like my Mr. Saturn chained.

Ah my old avatar:

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

God, I just got lost in the past reading those...

You'd think that we'd learn from those mistakes. Feel how you want, but at least temper your proclamations; it may fail, or it may be a runaway success. People here have a long and storied history of being 100% wrong. Wouldn't you rather be the guy that said nothing than the guy with a giant serving of crow on his plate?

For the record, I think Kinect will be a success.

I was part of that 10% who believed in the DS' success. I knew the Wii would be a smashing success from when I first saw it's unveiling at E3 2006, I knew that Guitar Hero would be a smashing success (and then correctly predicted its downfall)

I predict that Kinect will fail.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Old GAF

Best part of that was the Member "Kit" inadvertently
described the 3DS in that thread.

 

[VALIS]

Not sure if anyone's brought this up yet, but how are Kinect sales going to be counted in the first place? I assume NPD will track sales of stand-alone Kinect units, but they're not going to track 360+Kinect bundles as separate from 360, are they? I don't think they've ever distinguished hardware bundles before. Kind of like how there's no NPD distinction between 360 Arcade and other 360 units now. People will have to guess these numbers based on press releases and the like.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I would really like somebody to explain to me the mentality that GAF was wrong about the Wii so by extrapolation they will be wrong about Kinect as well. What analogues are you deriving from the two products outside of motion control and expanded audience focus? Or is that what all of these opposed bets are being hedged on?

 

[Snipes424]

So my question is, why doesn't Nintendo/Sony/ and Microsoft make new looking hardware each year? Much like the iPhone.

It obviously increases the sales, just look at every time a new DS comes out, new PS3 slim, and now the 360 slim.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

So my question is, why doesn't Nintendo/Sony/ and Microsoft make new looking hardware each year? Much like the iPhone.

It obviously increases the sales, just look at every time a new DS comes out, new PS3 slim, and now the 360 slim.

It takes time and costs money to improve your processes and shrink your hardware. PS3 was made differently in 2006 than it is in 2010.

 

[DMeisterJ]

I would really like somebody to explain to me the mentality that GAF was wrong about the Wii so by extrapolation they will be wrong about Kinect as well. What analogues are you deriving from the two products outside of motion control and expanded audience focus? Or is that what all of these opposed bets are being hedged on?

Since that theory first came into play I've been trying to figure out why such a lazy theory would even hold stock... to this day no one has explained to me how this applies to Kinect's success/failure. It's amazing to me how much traction this theory has given the things 'GAF' has been right on...

 

[Snipes424]

It takes time and costs money to improve your processes and shrink your hardware. PS3 was made differently in 2006 than it is in 2010.

It doesn't necessarily have to smaller, just different with added features. Much like a 3G to a 3GS, then every 2-4 years, do a complete hardware design.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

It doesn't necessarily have to smaller, just different with added features. Much like a 3G to a 3GS, then every 2-4 years, do a complete hardware design.

The same answer applies, but in addition, would you want to buy launch hardware if you knew there would be a superior model in a year's time?

This works with phones because of contracts, and less of a need for standardization amongst platforms. It's not so easy for consoles.

 

[Snipes424]

I would really like somebody to explain to me the mentality that GAF was wrong about the Wii so by extrapolation they will be wrong about Kinect as well. What analogues are you deriving from the two products outside of motion control and expanded audience focus? Or is that what all of these opposed bets are being hedged on?

One of the reasons why the wii was such a huge success was because of the price, you could even argue that Nintendo under priced it.

If you don't own a 360, the very least you will have to spend is $299. If you do, $150. Both options aren't exactly cheap.

Another reason why wii took off like it did was from word of mouth/playing it at a party. Now Kinect is a great party device, but there are a lot more limitations that could screw up the experience. Those limitations being, you need to stand about 13-15 feet away from your TV (according to Giant Bomb). Problems with people playing who are different heights. For example, I'm 6'4", if I play with someone who is 4'4", it doesn't work quite right.

Now with that being said, I still think Kinect will probably sell a lot, but I don't think we are going to see a wii-like take off from it.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

So my question is, why doesn't Nintendo/Sony/ and Microsoft make new looking hardware each year? Much like the iPhone.

It obviously increases the sales, just look at every time a new DS comes out, new PS3 slim, and now the 360 slim.

The market is different from phones and systems. Contracts run out on phones usually every year or two years, they don't on consoles.

Improvements to a $300 console you bought last year generally drive people nuts.

Apple sells way above manufacturing cost, consoles tend not to. So if you're making profit with your current process, you want to keep making profit.

 

[FutureZombie]

I still believe the Wii and DS are total gimmicks. I believed it then, and after playing them, I believe it even more now.

I'm not saying they don't have any good games, but their supposed selling point is a straight up gimmick, and so is the 3D hand-held.


I admit I was wrong about how well they would sell. It still amazes me how many people bought a Wii. Then again, American Idol is the most popular show on TV, so it shouldn't have been surprising.


And this isn't an anti-Nintendo post. Kinect is a stupid gimmick, too.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I still believe the Wii and DS are total gimmicks. I believed it then, and after playing them, I believe it even more now.

I'm not saying they don't have any[/] good games, but their supposed selling point is a straight up gimmick, and so is the 3D hand-held.

You tell 'em, Steve-Dave!

 

[imtehman]

I would really like somebody to explain to me the mentality that GAF was wrong about the Wii so by extrapolation they will be wrong about Kinect as well. What analogues are you deriving from the two products outside of motion control and expanded audience focus? Or is that what all of these opposed bets are being hedged on?

It's more than that. Whereas Sony' motion controls are similar to the wii's MS is focusing on the fact that its hands free motion. That "gimmick" is what MS is betting on to get consumers to try it out.

i think the kinect will sell much better than's sony's move just from that.

 

[Rainier]

So my question is, why doesn't Nintendo/Sony/ and Microsoft make new looking hardware each year? Much like the iPhone.

It obviously increases the sales, just look at every time a new DS comes out, new PS3 slim, and now the 360 slim.

That only works for the iPhone, iPod, iPad... because it's usually an existing customer upgrading. Sony, Microsoft and even Nintendo wish they had the kind of loyal fans that Apple has. Hell, if on launch day of the Xbox slim we learned that you can't hold the controller in a comfortable position, or else the game resets itself, would we expect it to still not only sell out but be hard to find in stores weeks later?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

It's more than that. Whereas Sony' motion controls are similar to the wii's MS is focusing on the fact that its hands free motion. That "gimmick" is what MS is betting on to get consumers to try it out.

i think the kinect will sell much better than's sony's move just from that.

That's completely fine, but that's not what i'm talking about.

What i'm talking about is the "olol GAF screwed up with the Wii, so that means Kinect will succeed, all of the technical problems, derivative games, and price aside!" arguments. Despite this forum joking about it., the Wii's success wasn't fueled by GAF's hatred for it.

 

[Rainier]

I still believe the Wii and DS are total gimmicks. I believed it then, and after playing them, I believe it even more now.

I'm not saying they don't have any good games, but their supposed selling point is a straight up gimmick, and so is the 3D hand-held.


I admit I was wrong about how well they would sell. It still amazes me how many people bought a Wii. Then again, American Idol is the most popular show on TV, so it shouldn't have been surprising.


And this isn't an anti-Nintendo post. Kinect is a stupid gimmick, too.

What do you think of 3D TV? Personally, I think that's a gimmick that's destined to fail. I love my PS3, but as I already wear glasses Sony better make any 3D game playable for me.

That's completely fine, but that's not what i'm talking about.

What i'm talking about is the "olol GAF screwed up with the Wii, so that means Kinect will succeed, all of the technical problems, derivative games, and price aside!" arguments. Despite this forum joking about it., the Wii's success wasn't fueled by GAF's hatred for it.

I always assumed people were just joking when using that line of logic, because it's clearly not logical at all.

 

[Snipes424]

That only works for the iPhone, iPod, iPad... because it's usually an existing customer upgrading. Sony, Microsoft and even Nintendo wish they had the kind of loyal fans that Apple has. Hell, if on launch day of the Xbox slim we learned that you can't hold the controller in a comfortable position, or else the game resets itself, would we expect it to still not only sell out but be hard to find in stores weeks later?

lol you have a point

 

[GarthVaderUK]

Anyone suggesting Kinect will succeed purely going by GAF's general dislike of it is surely just taking the piss. It certainly isn't a guarantee of Kinect's failure either.

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

I think Opiate's proposed standard (that Kinect leads to an acceleration of the 360 hardware sales, and prevents a YoY decline in 2011, IIRC) is probably a good starting point.

Broadly speaking, I think sales in to existing 360 customers are basically irrelevant (and based on the standalone pricing, I think Microsoft feels similarly) while sales of the bundle are what's really important to the device's success.

Doesn't the non-standard shape/lack of decline of the 360's curve make that metric very tough to baseline? It seems like it's going to be very difficult to say "this is what the 360 SHOULD have done this year" without Kinect.

 

[RedStep]

Not sure if anyone's brought this up yet, but how are Kinect sales going to be counted in the first place? I assume NPD will track sales of stand-alone Kinect units, but they're not going to track 360+Kinect bundles as separate from 360, are they? I don't think they've ever distinguished hardware bundles before. Kind of like how there's no NPD distinction between 360 Arcade and other 360 units now. People will have to guess these numbers based on press releases and the like.

As you mentioned, I imagine we'll get an idea from NPDs (if it worked for Wii Play, it should work for Kinect Adventures). I'm sure MS will fill in the rest with their PR.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I always assumed people were just joking when using that line of logic, because it's clearly not logical at all.

I sincerely hope they are.

Personally I think the best metric to judge the platform by is the overall health of the first party game sales. NPD's tracking is far too unreliable for anything else.