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NPD Sales Results for March 2014 [Up4: FFX/X-2 HD]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
250k would be horrible. You can't really compare the attach rate of a game launching to a system with a 10M+ install base to one launching one a 2.0-2.5M install base. Mario Kart 8 will have a better attach rate than Mario Kart Wii, because a larger percentage of Wii U owners are going to be big Nintendo fans. A more casual fanbase like the Wii had doesn't run out to buy games day one.
I'm so late to this thread (had to wipe my computer) and I'm already laughing.
BTW, here's the post: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=96357419&postcount=1812
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't know if any game has caused a greater than 300% increase Y/Y in sales; which is what 300-350K across the May-June period amounts to. So, good luck with that. Much of the Nov & Dec rise was just because there's typically a Nov & Dec rise in sales; I think this is relatively well shown in that sales collapsed right back down again, post-Holiday.
As for the whole "I like the Vita/Wii U blah blah." Sorry, but what's the relevance. The thread is about sales performance. You can like whatever you like, there's no accounting for taste. What does that have to do with the abysmal sales of these products?
As for the whole "I like the Vita/Wii U blah blah." Sorry, but what's the relevance. The thread is about sales performance. You can like whatever you like, there's no accounting for taste. What does that have to do with the abysmal sales of these products?
I don't own it, but to be fair, Nintendo Land was that game. It was a new IP (well, sort of), that used the gamepad with minigames.
It didn't work. At all. But you can't deny the idea was there. Maybe not executed perfectly.
Don't get your hopes too high...
If it does around 250K, we're going to see 10 threads about it, won't we?
prag16
Banned
As I said originally, in theory I agree with you. But refer to SM3DW numbers. Based on those (in a holiday period no less), a higher attach rate than MKWii is not guaranteed.
The console wars just provide endless entertainment, Sony Jihadist, and Sony Evangelist.
I'm looking forward to people getting mad and raging about the "Sony Agenda/Lifestyle" as well as the "Affordable Console Act" Microsoft initiates at E3.
I prefer the term Sony Mafia myself.
shinra-bansho
Member
Double Dash did 530K, but that was in November and on an installed base around 5.7M. It did another 730K in December.
250K give or take a bit, is probably in line with expectation.
250K give or take a bit, is probably in line with expectation.
It starts out with:
"Wow, ____ is dead. It has some good games coming though. Even better than some other systems"
Someone replies:
"Lol no. It doesn't have anything, hence the sales"
Then:
"Are you kidding? Here is my list war. It's so much better than _____. There's just a low install base"
Finally:
"Low install base because the games stink. Take a look at my list war."
That's how "I like this" enters sales threwads.
speculawyer
Member
Saint Gregory
Member
I do own it and it wasn't. It's not that it's a bad game but it was basically a minigame compilation meant to show-off the gamepad.
There was nothing new or groundbreaking to draw people in like their previous generation blue ocean games.
Hero of Legend
Member
Any Wii U or 3DS LTDs posted that I missed?
theprodigy
Member
Unknown One
Member
Sadly it needs to be replaced...Tretton...
Isn't that what Wii Sports was too? I stopped playing Wii Sports after a few days as well, so it sounds similar to Nintendoland.
Motion controls was just a more interesting than tablet stuff. But Wii Sports was not that good a game either.
Saint Gregory
Member
Well that's kind of the thing, motion controls was at least something new and interesting. There wasn't anything mind-blowing about playing a game with asymmetrical tablet gameplay in 2012. Nintendo bet the house on the fact that there was but they should have realized after the meh E3 showing that it wasn't happening.
So much of the situation that Nintendo is in now was avoidable but they seemed to think that they knew better than everyone about everything after the wild successes of the DS and Wii. Hubris is a dangerous drug.
The start of a ne generation always bringss out the crazies.
Um exuse me, but it's Sony Jihadist Evangelion. Get it right.
Seems like each company takes turns getting arrogant and effing up, ha.
Neuromancer
Member
Sony jihadist is amazing.
SwiftDeath
Member
Pfft all the orthodox Sony fans giving the middle road fans a bad name
I think that is the real explanation of "third generation curse" or whatever it is called.
It's the endless cycle of success->hubris->arrogance->failure->humbleness->success..
basically
happened to Sony last gen and Nintendo and Microsoft (to a lesser extent) this gen. It would have been worse for Microsoft if they had't backpedaled the fuck out of their initial plans for the system.
Hero of Legend
Member
1st Course
Member
Wii U: 2.3m
3DS: 11.9m (11.5 as of last Dec + the 409K it sold this year so far)
I still think the mobile hardware manufacturer's (Apple, Samsung etc) way of releasing minimal upgraded hardware every year, is better than what the console manufacturer are doing right now.
The problem now is every five years, the sale go back to zero and everything have to start over again. Publishers have to get used to the low adoption rate and have to wait until the 4th or 5th year to really get a high sale number for their games.
Releasing new hardware every year doesn't mean you have to get a new hardware every year to play the latest games. People are still using their iPhone 4 today and can still play the latest games. Publisher just need to make sure their games work within the last 3-4 generation of hardware. Consumers will need to swap their hardware only when they feel it is ageing.
The problem now is every five years, the sale go back to zero and everything have to start over again. Publishers have to get used to the low adoption rate and have to wait until the 4th or 5th year to really get a high sale number for their games.
Releasing new hardware every year doesn't mean you have to get a new hardware every year to play the latest games. People are still using their iPhone 4 today and can still play the latest games. Publisher just need to make sure their games work within the last 3-4 generation of hardware. Consumers will need to swap their hardware only when they feel it is ageing.
So basically PC hardware then?
This isn't necessarily true. The Wii U being low on steam does mean a userbase that's more enthusiastic about Nintendo overall, but it also means the network/word of mouth effect that often drives hits is more or less missing. 250k would actually be a fairly solid opening number, I'd say, assuming we're talking NPD.
ShockingAlberto
Member
If you feel that such conversation is against the rules, you should PM a mod and ask them to do something about it.
Until then, I'd advise calming down.
Liabe Brave
Member
I applaud the effort! But again, similar kinds of analysis are what I do in my day job, and some trends are simply resistant to quantization. A couple years back I also tried to generate a multivariate prediction engine for game sales. (I concentrated on Japanese sales, since the dataset is much richer and more complete.) I couldn't get it to function even as well as GAF aggregate (which was my target), so I gave up. But maybe someone will succeed, so please continue! All I'm saying is, until you actually prove that your system works, it's superfluous to attempt drawing conclusions.
Again, you're getting lost in the weeds of overfitting. Yes, the 360, Wii, and PS2 all had different sales trajectories. My whole point is that, because of this very fact, we can't use your intuition or your putative prediction algorithm to draw conclusions as to how PS4 might eventually differ from them. The details aren't adding any information right now.
It may be unsatisfying, but the best and most justified statement right now is: the three consoles whose sales trajectory is near the PS4 are PS2, Wii, and 360. These are also the three most successful consoles in American history. Therefore, the PS4 is very successful.
Nothing is strange. In February, Titanfall sold a lot of preorders on Amazon (it was ranked #7 for the month). Infamous sold a whole lot less (it was #40). In March, they sold about the same amount, with Infamous just slightly higher (#5 versus Titanfall at #6). In the NPD, both months counted together. Therefore, Titanfall ending up as twice the sales of Infamous in NPD does match what Amazon shows: Titanfall selling a large amount in two months, Infamous selling a large amount in one month and a small amount in the other.
LOL...who would write like this?
Brain scan geez.
But anyway, I hope the guy didn't get banned for using the word evangelist.
I don't think the word has any negative connotations associated with it.
It makes sense in the context, nothing really venomous about it to describe Vita fans.
I actually like the term Vita Evangelist myself.
"Vita means life.
Vita will raise up from the ashes.
Spread the Gospel of Vita, 2014 is ours year!"
Totally serious too. Have you guys see Vita 2014 games?
Jan-Apr has been amazing for me, can't wait for the Fall releases.
PC is a bit different as it is not in control by a single manufacturer with a controlled ecosystem (store, interface, online etc). Steam and Steam Machine maybe close though.
theprodigy
Member
hmm, what did the PSP end up at in NPD? (and Gamecube I guess)
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not sure where exactly you discerned the impression that I wasn't calm in a query/statement about why anyone thinks their predilections are particularly relevant in discussion of sales.
My sentiments essentially echo your own from a page ago; there's a bizarre emotional attachment to these failing systems, and that seems to have people taking discussion of their poor performance as some sort of slight, when it's just a discussion of their poor performance. Such that they feel the need to defend these systems in terms of features or software. And I just don't really see... why...?
As a muslim I'm not sure how I feel about this, but it does have a swell ring to it.
Sony Mafia sounds boss though.
Still, you should look at the current trend. If you make a graph with, let's say, PS3, X360, PS4 and XOne sales on their first January-March, you might get a different impression. Hell, just remove the first two days from each console's sales, and the situation looks a lot different.The One and Done;108852261 said:
velvet_nitemare
Member
You did know. You made that 300k prediction a while back and someone told you it would be split into 2 different NPD's.
I think the point is there is almost zero chance that x1 will end up like the wiiu. X1 is doing well enough that owners of that system don't need to fear lack of support and games for the system.
Why do people keep forgetting that xbox is the next wii U outside the US and UK? I'm pretty sure if ps4 was selling terrible in the states and being beaten by xbox in Europe, it would be called the next wii u. But somehow the xbox is fine because it is doing well only in one or two places.
Because there are degrees of sales and success/failure. Wii U is selling abysmally everywhere. Xbone is selling relatively worse than PS4, which is concerning, but it isn't abysmal enough to justify skittish third-parties jumping ship, especially when they'd be ignoring 1/3 of the console market in doing so.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
Because those "one or two" places, represent 50% of its predecessors market?
While the X1 may have trouble reaching the heights of success expected, its almost guareenteed that it will be a viable contender to Sony throughout the generation. Its not going to be the next WiiU gamecube or even OG Xbox. It just isn't going to match the 360.
What about étouffée though? Are they just going to forfeit the 20 million they sold there?
SenjutsuSage
Banned
Yea, 3rd parties aren't going to seriously bail out of the Xbox One anytime soon, if ever. So, comparisons to the Wii-U is a serious reach.
Was this some bad late aprils fools joke btw.?
http://www.vg247.com/2013/05/24/xbo...on-lifetime-sales-100-million-xbox-360-units/
http://www.vg247.com/2013/05/24/xbo...on-lifetime-sales-100-million-xbox-360-units/
That is impossible, there would be a console for one in seven people! Maybe if the population was in the 10s of billions and most of the countries in the world were not poor.
Activision may have already started to bail though. But that's not the point. Third party support or no, there's no reason to buy an X1 over a PS4, whereas the Wii U has Nintendo games. X1 is worse off than Wii U outside the States, and domestic may not sustain it either. Right now it seems that it won't be able to overtake Wii U before the holiday season, and that's discounting the Wii U actually has a better lineup.
Sure come the end of the generation it will have done better. But not by much.
Sure come the end of the generation it will have done better. But not by much.
A reason is that it is more or less on par with PS4 power wise. Ports are no huge effort.
PeakPointMatrix
Member
Huh. Not exactly a gap the XB1 should be too concerned about, but I suppose it is a little worrying that this was during the Titanfall release.