prag16
Banned
40 million xbones in North America? So basically you're expecting Wii (and 360 I guess) numbers? I think that is more than a little optimistic, and a tall order.
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NPD Sales Results for March 2014 [Up4: FFX/X-2 HD]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
40 million xbones in North America? So basically you're expecting Wii (and 360 I guess) numbers? I think that is more than a little optimistic, and a tall order.
shinra-bansho
Member
I agree with the general sentiment, the XBO isn't in any Wii U situation, but this figure strikes me as off.
I'm assuming your meaning is over the course of the next five years*, the current inclusive.
If we take the launch quarter out of that 50M, and take 80% that's about 37M, which is a few million short of the 360, Wii and PS2's lifetime figure. It also breaks down to bout 7.5M per annum, of what will probably average out over the course of the gen to an annualised combined PS4/XBO sales rate of about 10-11M unless we see significant growth.
So it implies either that the XBO will take the market lead, or that the underlying core market will expand by quite a lot. And I don't really see either happening, at least based on current knowledge.
*If it's over six years the overall implications don't change too much.
I thought i read in the IGN article that its 2.93 for ps4 attach rate to xbone's 2.9? Were they just being IGNorant again?
bigbaldwolf86
Banned
The 2.93 figure is WW. It's 2.3 in the US
theprodigy
Member
the 2.93 figure is off, it's using hardware data from April 6 but software numbers from April 13
edit: oh yeah and that includes digital sales too
ethomaz
Banned
That's a massive ask isn't it? What you're saying is either the XB1 starts dominating from now on, or the core market increases and we're going to see unprecedented PS4 numbers in conjunction which I doubt.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
Cause there is so much free stuff and zero evidence. Also TF, the bundle sales aren't included in the retail sales figure.
SwiftDeath
Member
I have no numbers for Wii U as we don't seem to get many but I started keeping track as best I could during the launches of the new consoles
---------------------------
Spain [as of Jan. 31st] | PS4 181k - 205k | XB1 36.2k - 41k
---------------------------
France [as of Dec. 31st] | PS4 240k | XB1 126k
---------------------------
Germany [as of Dec. 31st] | PS4 250k | XB1 100k
---------------------------
UK [as of Dec. 31st] | PS4 530k | XB1 364k
---------------------------
Less useful but still interesting
---------------------------
Australia [At Launch] | PS4 < 66K | XB1 66K
Australia [As of Feb. 12] | PS4 > XB1 > 66k
---------------------------
New Zealand [As of Dec. 31st] | PS4 > XB1
But there's no evidence on the other direction either.
So we're left with:
-lower prices
-preordering is actually possible
-more digital games
What's your evidence for thinking it goes in the other direction?
kinoki
Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
I imagine that US digital will be in favour of PlayStation due to euro-price and the ability to have multiple regions on one unit.
And the measuring of attachment rate in March is kind of pointless. It's going to be in favour of Xbox simply because of Titanfall and bundled games. But that's not what 3rd party is looking at. They're looking at multiplats and which console it sold best on.
MisterSamMan
Member
Wow, and I thought March would be the one month the Xbox would sell more than the PS4. Oh well, there's always a Halo release.
shinra-bansho
Member
cs is including hardware bundled sales in the >1M figure, as far as I'm aware. EDIT: oh you mean the tie ratio, I can't remember NPD's policy on that with regard to games that are also available as standalone SKU.
Maybe if they don't muddle with the multiplayer of Halo 2 Ani. That campaign is lousy, and not worth coming back to.
Ah whats the attach rate for ps4 in the US? Ps3 also seemed to have this weakness of lower software attach rates compared to the xbox. I always thought it was because it had bluray so lots of people were buying it just for movies, but it seems like the xbone is still selling more software despite being more media focused. Seems like majority of xbox players are more hardcore gamers.
theprodigy
Member
hmm....
you think we'll get a chart like this again? probably not
lol at it being 425k across all of Europe post-launch tough
SwiftDeath
Member
.
Hmm I don't see why Nintendo would give that out again as it would only show further loss of their marketshare. Sony rarely gives out numbers let alone that much information. MS won't be game to either
I doubt we'll get a look into Europe like that for quite some time :\
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Over six years from launch. And I don't expect there to be any real large jump in "core" gamer demos. Just those that gamed on Wii to move to PS4/One and consistent multiconsole ownership.
In six years I'm hoping PS4 has a NA unit tally of close to 50 million units and One to be around 360 level. Prices will fall much faster this generation than they did the last leading to much faster uptake. Overall I expect the NA market to be down gen on gen, but only marginally so.
SwiftDeath
Member
Titanfall's release likely greatly increased XB1's tie ratio for March. It is likely that with higher PS4 sales, Watch Dogs co-marketing on PS4, and MLB the Show [combined with some other titles not coming to XB1] the gap between tie ratios will decrease in April and May between the two.
I expect XB1 will still be ahead by a decent clipping though but I seriously doubt Sony is worried about their attach rates as they've already profited with the Tie Ratio they currently have
No, its just simply that there are "free" games on ps4 and those digital sales don't show up in npds. Sony has absolutely nothing to worry about. And besides they have the rest of the world to sell software unlike the xbox.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Best argument is you're talking about a .6 of a game difference.
If Sony should be worried MS must be as well.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
It's far too early to say that, when we get to 20 million consoles sold for both MS and Sony then it might be worth looking at it.
There are F2P and subscription-based games, potentially higher digital sales and a much larger install base that overcomes the per-unit ratio, and then some.
What? You're expecting Xbox One to outsell PS4 in April and May?
SwiftDeath
Member
No, I expect higher sales of PS4 software due to Watch Dogs co-branding, higher PS4 sales and MLB the show among other things
I think you misread my statement
The gap between tie ratios should decrease in April and May
You realize that F2P games, aren't really free, right? One must only refer to the Warframe devs to see how lucrative the PS4 can be in this regard. Plus, there are a tonne of digital exclusives that are simply never tracked. Heck I bought SS0 and preordered Child of Light just last month. In fact, every game I purchase, I do so digitally and I have over 12 at the moment.
Disc-based retail is basically dead for anyone in a metropolitan community with decent speeds who is used to i-Store like purchases. Which is not so small a market, anymore.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
Weren't they ahead in March as well?
bigbaldwolf86
Banned
I haven't bought anything for Warframe, War Thunder or Blacklight. Just because they can be lucrative doesn't mean they aren't free.
The awesome thing about these attach rates is that they tend to go up when hardware sales decline. There are many ways to calculate yourself into a winning position, we've seen barely anything yet.
SwiftDeath
Member
I think I should edit that post as it's confusing people
I was talking about Tie Ratios as both consoles tie ratio have been increasing but the XB1's is a good bit ahead
I merely stated that the Tie Ratio for XB1 increased strongly this month due to Titanfall and the gap between the two will likely decrease in April and May
Birgitte2004
Member
...who also thinks like you do.
I'm in a metropolitan community with good speeds who uses the Android store frequently.
I also buy every game I can on disc, because Steam has taught me how much I hate having to re-download games constantly. I've already had to delete games from the hard drive because of running out of space on the PS4.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
But it didn't. It's virtually the same unless my inability to count is rearing its head again.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't really see either of the bolded occurring. I think multi-system ownership is going to decrease; given the option between multiple systems or one system, I really don't think the general consumer wants multiple consoles.
As for the those who gamed on the Wii, if a significant portion of them do transition to the PS4 and XBO then I would consider that a sizable increase in the "core" audience. I don't really want to get into a semantic discussion, but I'm simply using the term as short-hand for "consumers who buy games like Assassin's Creed, Halo, Uncharted, FIFA, Madden, Call of Duty etc. etc." And I don't think that's what we're seeing. Just Dance has kept some audience going, but whatever has been sustained of the Wii's expansion is probably a small fraction. And it doesn't really seem like its transitioning, given the sales of that title for instance are still overwhelmingly on the Wii.
I think there'll be a pretty substantial contraction, or perhaps more aptly correction, as the motion bubble has completed its pop. Almost 110M 7th gen systems were sold. Just very rough ballpark guestimate but I expect this next gen to top off around 70M or so, (depending of course on how long until we see successors.)
It would be nice if that did happen though.
Ah, your original statement had the attach rate separate in another sentence, I see you edited your post.
SwiftDeath
Member
We're both looking at Aquamarine's post on Tie Ratios I quoted above right?
So with the month of March, the XB1's Tie Ratio increased .21 and the PS4's Tie Ratio increased .15
Perhaps not the biggest numbers but those are 8% and 7% increases in Tie Ratios, in software sold per hardware unit sold in one month. Seems fairly large to me
Yes my wording seemed to be confusing
While I believe this is what you meant, I just want to note here that I feel people /do/ want multiple systems, but that they want those additional systems to be things like smartphones/iPads, browser/f2p gaming PCs, or etc instead of both a PS4 and an XB1 since the latter two have a huge game overlap while the others are fairly distinct and also do other things in a way that the PS4 and XB1 don't.
Like if you have a PS4 or XB1 you've got a home media solution and don't need another one, but you don't have a computer and you don't have a mobile device.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
The difference between them each month is negligible is it not. A couple of percent.
SwiftDeath
Member
Hmm while it is not incredibly large, I would think it's a fairly important metric to both platform holders and that the MOM increase is a good sign for both even if it is a small percentage bump each month so far
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I'm trying to remain optimistic.
I'm hoping that the reason so few of Wii owners have bought a new system is because they haven't felt a reason to do so. I'm hoping around 20 million of those NA Wii owners were previously PS2 owners which would make them likely to be late adopters for traditional platforms, but were prime early owners for a cheap(ish) system like Wii.
As for multi-console ownership I'm hoping both One and PS4 can build a sizable staple of exclusive content. If they can do that there will be a contingency of gamers that will buy both. Similar to the overlap of PS3/360 owners.
SwiftDeath
Member
I'm fairly bearish on multi-console owners this gen relative to last. I think that putting MP on PS4 behind the PS+ paywall will hurt multi-console ownership as I find it unlikely many consumers want to pay for two game console subscriptions. As such it would eliminate MP potential for one console not to mention media functionality on the XB1 if that's the one chosen not to have subscription. I also think that the general trending towards greater percentages of multi-platform games making up a consoles library will remain and exclusives will become fewer than last gen
I think one thing people are missing with the Xbox One here is that the price promotions are working.
The thing is actually selling. Are they having to add value to get it to do that? Yes, but they're offering the notably worse base value proposition anyway, yet still are seeing healthy demand.
This implies a product that actually has an audience, but with a price point that's too high.
The problem the Wii U has on the other hand is that even when Nintendo pulls the soft-price-cut levers (and pulled the hard price cut lever) they didn't actually get a notable improvement, implying their demand issues related to their core product instead of their price point.
This is a very fundamental difference.
The thing is actually selling. Are they having to add value to get it to do that? Yes, but they're offering the notably worse base value proposition anyway, yet still are seeing healthy demand.
This implies a product that actually has an audience, but with a price point that's too high.
The problem the Wii U has on the other hand is that even when Nintendo pulls the soft-price-cut levers (and pulled the hard price cut lever) they didn't actually get a notable improvement, implying their demand issues related to their core product instead of their price point.
This is a very fundamental difference.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
I mean the difference Feb and March between XB1 and PS4. Nearly the same.
shinra-bansho
Member
Yeah, I should have been more clear in that I was referring specifically to the home consoles when I said multi-system. If the Joe Public buys a PS4 they really don't need an XBO to satisfy any pressing need, and vice versa. They can get their Madden and their CoD; it plays their Netflix. And these are the people that really make up the majority of the gaming market I imagine, not those that absolutely need to play both Titanfall and Second Son.
It's why I tend to find the idea of a pitching a product as a secondary system flawed, unless it does something very specifically different from the others on the market that people see value in - and in that I don't think include first party output as I don't think that's a sufficient driver.
I agree with what you're saying in that people have no issue with having multiple devices serving different needs.
SwiftDeath
Member
Hmm yes the percentage difference [relative difference] between the XB1 and PS4 Tie Ratio is nearly the same in February [26%] as it is in March [27%] but absolutely the gap increased by .06 which I suppose is fairly small all things considered so I suppose you're right there.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
Hope there is not a race to the bottom scenario developing. MS should hold their nerve, selling games is what matters.
SwiftDeath
Member
Personally I see MS's priorities as the following
- Sell 2.5 games per console
- Sell XBL Gold Sub
- Sell secondary services [Xbox Fitness Sub, Xbox Video]
- Sell More Games
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Damn, my projections which I considered hugely terrifying for gaming still only amounted to a loss of 60 million units gen on gen with home consoles. shinra is over there telling me I'm being optimistic.
We start getting into the losses of hundreds of millions and we are talking literal market crash material. Like game budgets needing to be shaved by 1/3rd to 1/2 to ensure any profitability bad.
We start getting into the losses of hundreds of millions and we are talking literal market crash material. Like game budgets needing to be shaved by 1/3rd to 1/2 to ensure any profitability bad.
Apophis2036
Banned
WiiU was given several ports of PS360 games and they all completely bombed at retail. I'm sure it was either Splinter Cell Blacklist or Arkham Origins that sold around 5000 copies on WiiU.
If those types of third party games had sold even a million copies Worldwide then there would have been even more projects green light for WiiU. Man power wasn't really an issue either since most third party WiiU games were outsourced to much smaller development teams.
You do know Nintendo were taking a loss on WiiU from day one right ?. Reggie said at first they had to sell one game to break even and then changed it to "more than one game" a few days later. I don't know how that translates to specific loses but I would guess they were losing at least $50 per box sold in the first year.
They then price cut the deluxe console by $50 just ten months after launch and added a choice between two of their biggest titles (NSMB U or the newly released Wind Waker HD) which again would have cost them potential profits.
Losing $50 per box is bad enough but you want them to lose $100 by cutting to $250 or even $150 by cutting to some peoples ideal price of $199 ?. That is billions upon billions of loses to Nintendo.
The Gamepad is at the root of all WiiU's problems because not only is it an unappealing unique selling point but it also put third party developers off aswell as making it impossible to launch at $249 or drop the price to $249 within the first year.
E3 will show us a much better picture of WiiU's future. If they announce a new Metroid and Animal Crossing aswell as Zelda U then they will support the system until at least the end of 2015 but if all we see is Zelda U and more of games we already know about then it shows Nintendo have completely given up on it and will simply try and take peoples attention away from it with QoL in 2014 and the new handheld in 2015 before revealing their next home console sometime in late 2015/2016.
On a slightly related topic I really don't know why people are expecting a WiiU like situation from XBone. Even if it only sells 50% of PS4's lifetime sales you are still talking in the region of 40 - 50 million sales even at the worse end of hardware sales predictions for the entire generation.
A 40-50 million userbase which uses a very similar hardware architecture / power range as PS4 will not be ignored by third parties under any circumstances esp when the company is as wealthy as MS and can throw an almost unending amount of cash behind advertising it.