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[blakep267]

That's a fair point, but are Halo, Gears, Forza bringing in new users? Or is it keeping the existing userbase happy?

Everyone know MS publishes games. It's just they lack diversity right now and that doesn't look to change any time soon. Offering a more expensive box relative to the One S isn't going to bring in many new users. It's really there their enthusiast base.

O think it's pretty false that they don't offer diversity. I wish that would stop floatinga round. Look at all the games they e published this gen and tell me there's no diversity

 

[Primethius]

O think it's pretty false that they don't offer diversity. I wish that would stop floatinga round. Look at all the games they e published this gen and tell me there's no diversity

MS this gen is way less diverse than MS in past gens. They attempted to expand but are mainly back to the core stable of IPs.

 

[blakep267]

I'm aware. I mentioned this in the post you responded to.

I never claimed these IP were failures, so I'm not sure why you're putting words in my mouth.

If you can't see why Xbox may be in for some rough times ahead, especially when compared to their competition, we'll have to agree to disagree. Strictly regarding first party, I think the fact that not a single MS-published title is in this month's top 20 is kind of telling.



I think during the first two years or so, you absolutely have a point. It's now 2017.

So now your adding goalposts. Which time range do you wan to declare do that your point rings true regarding diversity? The last 3 months??

Also they haven't released any games recently. So that's why they don't have any in the top 20. Do you want to go back to October 2016 when they would have 2 games in the top 20 likely and Sony none?

 

[SneakersSO]

Not resonating with the general public? Fail to have legs? Where are you getting your numbers from. They have the best selling racing game this gen, halo 5 shipped 5 million copies in 3 months, and while Gears has seen a decline, its sales weren't bomba by any means. It was like ~450k in its launch month not counting digital

Things decline. That doesn't mean that they are failures. It's not the 360 anymore

Nah, MS published games absolutely have far weaker legs or audience retention than they've ever had in Xbox or each respective series' history. Halo 5 is probably the most successful, but as many have noted, even that is down. When we talk about long legs or audience engagement, things like YT, Twitch, Twitter, etc. are where we get the figures, and on all fronts, MS games underperform drastically. Heck, Halo 5 itself had a giant chunk in its audience not show up for the world championship in terms of viewers, and their prize pool went from 2.6 million to 1 million.

MS games just don't generate buzz outside of the hardcore Xbox audience. It's been a problem they've run into time & time again with several of their new IPs or initiatives. The only people denying this are people with the fanboy googles wrapped too tightly around their head.

Also, they did release a game in the last 3 months - Halo Wars 2. Which is a game that was drastically down, considering it is a sequel to a highly-regarded title, generated a large amount of buzz from the core Xbox userbase when it was revealed, and reviewed well by all accounts. And even though we're < 3 months since its launch, audience engagement is basically a crater.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

So now your adding goalposts. Which time range do you wan to declare do that your point rings true regarding diversity? The last 3 months??

Also they haven't released any games recently. So that's why they don't have any in the top 20. Do you want to go back to October 2016 when they would have 2 games in the top 20 likely and Sony none?

I'm not moving goalposts. "The first two years or so" would culminate in late 2015 / early 2016.

The fact that MS has only launched one first party title in six months is part of my point.

 

[Boke1879]

O think it's pretty false that they don't offer diversity. I wish that would stop floatinga round. Look at all the games they e published this gen and tell me there's no diversity

I mean they had a chance to, but that game got cancelled.

It's all about perception. And the perception is that they really don't offer it. This is becoming a concern of not only people here, but it's bleeding out into the mainstream. It's being talked about among gaming journalists and even among the many people I see on twitter.

It doesn't even have to be first party exclusives. So far just on the PS4 we've had MLB, Gravity Rush, Nioh, Nier, Persona 5, Kingdom Hearts 1.5+2.5, Horizon, Yakuza.

Now MS has done something to at least get my attention. That gaming catalog they are coming out with.

But they gotta start nabbing some exclusives imo to kinda differentiate themselves because at this moment they are going to be overshadowed by the other two.

 

[Primethius]

Yeah, I think the real loser as the result of a successful Switch is Xbox. Sony and Nintendo now offer two very different and compelling products. The only reason to even consider a Scorpio is if you only care about third party games, you care about power (but not too much, otherwise you'd just buy a PC), and you are ok with paying a premium for it.

Sony offers all the third party options + fantastic first party, for less money. Nintendo offers a completely unique experience you cannot get anywhere else and it's resonating with consumers. I genuinely don't see what MS offers a potential buyer anymore, outside of power. That' alone is not a great proposition.

Missed this post but yea, I agree completely. This is my view of the current market as well. Switch being super successful is great for the market, but I definitely expect sales canabalism to occur.

 

[Bgamer90]

I'll just snip this because I largely disagree from various perspectives but it's all rooted in one key disagreement. Namely the notion that territories won't care about Xbox because they just don't want the brand.

Of course those territories don't want the brand if MS isn't willing to put in the work long term. MS tried last gen and were more successful than they were this gen. This stuff doesn't happen quickly and certainly not if you bail out. Hence the short term vs. long term perspective. This gen they practically stopped caring about anything outside US/UK. What do they expect? People to care about the brand if they are in a tier 2/3 country?

MS tried last gen and they were more successful with it than they were with the Xbox one but the Xbox 360 was still far behind the PS3 in these areas even with the negativity the PS3 had at the time. I'm not saying that they shouldn't try doing it, I'm simply saying that I feel it isn't going to help... especially as the PS4 is far stronger than the PS3 was thanks to Sony learning from their mistakes.

And yea, I expect a larger percentage of XB1 owners to jump to Scorpio but not by much. It will sell considerably less than Pro, that much is clear.

I don't know about this. Overall PS4 sales will definitely be higher than overall Xbox sales but I can see the Scorpio doing better than the Pro if MS pushes it well. It seems that many PS4 owners (even the more hardcore) are fine with their PS4s and the marketing deals for SKUs will probably be alongside the original PS4s since they will sell more due to price. Don't know if we'll have a breakdown of that though.

 

[kadotsu]

I feel like MS still needs a high profile game to sell Scorpio. It makes their co-marketing decisions feel weird. Sony has Red Dead, Battlefront and Destiny. Two games that will most definitely be "better on Scorpio" but MS won't say a peep about those. I also don't think that the 3rd Halo and 5th Forza is going to move hardware no matter how good it looks in 4k, 60 FPS. Their biggest co-marketing deal right now is Shadow of War.

Crackdown better be BotW good.

 

[SneakersSO]

MS tried last gen and they were more successful with it than they were with the Xbox one but the Xbox 360 was still far behind the PS3 in these areas even with the negativity the PS3 had at the time. I'm not saying that they shouldn't try doing it, I'm simply saying that I feel it isn't going to help... especially as the PS4 is far stronger than the PS3 was thanks to Sony learning from their mistakes.

Look, the reason MS even invested in these territories throughout '05 - 2010 was specifically so they could stem the tide of defacto exclusives Sony was getting as a result of being relevant in those regions. Sure, 360 was far behind PS3 in JP, but JP devs still saw the platform as worthwhile to release on for almost all of their endeavors last gen. Now that MS has regressed their support in that region, they have lost a large chunk of the 3rd party support they were getting on the 360, and Sony is now getting exclusives at almost no cost to them.

Its a matter of optics, and if MS isn't going to put in work to get JP devs to consider releasing on their machine, which is profitable in 2 western regions that they are relevant in, then this problem where devs just continue to focus on PC/Playstation/Nintendo is just going to continue to create questions around the topic of MS relevancy in the gaming sector outside of being an OS/API supplier.

I feel like MS still needs a high profile game to sell Scorpio. It makes their co-marketing decisions feel weird. Sony has Red Dead, Battlefront and Destiny. Two games that will most definitely be "better on Scorpio" but MS won't say a peep about those. I also don't think that the 3rd Halo and 5th Forza is going to move hardware no matter how good it looks in 4k, 60 FPS. Their biggest co-marketing deal right now is Shadow of War.

Crackdown better be BotW good.

Even if Crackdown 3 were BotW good, users will have 2 other platform options to play it (PC, X1 S) and potentially at higher fidelity (PC) than Scorpio. I don't think a 3rd party marketing deal will help move hardware any better than it would an X1 S - bundles are to get people into the ecosystem, and it just makes way more economic sense to put attractive bundles at the lowest cost, aka the base unit (X1 S). Just like the Pro, the Scorpio is going to need to sell itself, and MS already knows the vast majority of people who are going to buy into their platform even with the Scorpio on shelves are going to be purchasing X1 S.

I think the smartest move anyone that is looking at sales & the console industry can do is remove this notion from their line of thinking that the Scorpio is meant to drive X1 sales enough to turn the tide against Sony/PS4 in any way, cause that is not happening, and even MS has admitted they are not expecting it to happen.

 

[geordiemp]

That's a fair point, but are Halo, Gears, Forza bringing in new users? Or is it keeping the existing userbase happy?

Everyone know MS publishes games. It's just they lack diversity right now and that doesn't look to change any time soon. Offering a more expensive box relative to the One S isn't going to bring in many new users. It's really there their enthusiast base.

It is interesting to see what console manufacturers can use to make a gamer change allegiances mid generation... that is not just an MS issue but also applies to Sony and Nintendo.

Replace halo with zelda, and it reads the same for Nintendo, or maybe Uncharted for Sony, so your comments are not fair.

 

[SneakersSO]

It is interesting to see what console manufacturers can use to make a gamer change allegiances, that is not just an MS issue but also applies to Sony and Nintendo.

Replace halo with zelda, and it reads the same for Nintendo, or maybe Uncharted for Sony, so your comments are not fair.

Except thats not necessarily true - Nintendo & Sony both offers tons of new IP or remixed game experiences to bring in as many new audience members as they can. Both Sony & Nintendo offered a open-world action RPG for the first time in each companies' respective publishing history, and are enjoying record breaking sales this month.

God of War right now is enjoying some of the highest audience engagement for a game from a 1st party publisher, and is doing so thanks in large part to how much they have completely reinvented the experience against what God of War was historically as a series. This is something MS has not done with any of their IPs, instead choosing to just cater to the audience they already know will show up for their offerings.

As for changing allegiances - thats not a thing the console manufacturer necessarily cares about. Just because someone has bought an X1 doesn't mean they are going to be unwilling to purchase a PS4, or vice versa. Yes, it is harder specifically between these two than it has been in previous generations, simply because each platform has you basically entrenching yourself with their services due to how much more money you have to spend, but the value proposition Sony, Nintendo, and MS are all putting forth has become very, very different to one another than they ever have been historically, especially when you compare what Sony & MS were both offering back in 2013 & 2014.

 

[Stripper13]

It is interesting to see what console manufacturers can use to make a gamer change allegiances, that is not just an MS issue but also applies to Sony and Nintendo.

Replace halo with zelda, and it reads the same for Nintendo, or maybe Uncharted for Sony, so your comments are not fair.

I'd say the comments are plenty fair. It's fine for Sony, MS and Nintendo to hang their hats on established franchises.
The problem is, as someone who has bought every Forza, Gears and Halo game - there is little excitement left.
I'd argue that Sony and Nintendo are taking more risks and putting more effort (and polish) into their titles. You only need to look at the quality of the last Uncharted or BOTW to see the difference.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

It is interesting to see what console manufacturers can use to make a gamer change allegiances mid generation... that is not just an MS issue but also applies to Sony and Nintendo.

Replace halo with zelda, and it reads the same for Nintendo, or maybe Uncharted for Sony, so your comments are not fair.

I think Sony and Nintendo have the likes of TLOU and Splatoon to accomplish that.

 

[Primethius]

I don't know about this. Overall PS4 sales will definitely be higher than overall Xbox sales but I can see the Scorpio doing better than the Pro if MS pushes it well. It seems that many PS4 owners (even the more hardcore) are fine with their PS4s and the marketing deals for SKUs will probably be alongside the original PS4s since they will sell more due to price. Don't know if we'll have a breakdown of that though.

I don't see the Scorpio hitting Pro numbers. Maybe if we do a NA market to NA market comparison, sure. But worldwide vs. worldwide?

The Pro did something in the range of 1.5 million worldwide in the holidays (estimate based off NA numbers). Do I see Scorpio hitting that when it's primary market are just US and UK? No, I don't see how.

If we look at longer term legs, that comparison favors the Pro even more so.

 

[Fafalada]

Overall PS4 sales will definitely be higher than overall Xbox sales but I can see the Scorpio doing better than the Pro if MS pushes it well

Pro sales from the information that has been available have been around 20% of the base SKU since it released, and that's been pretty consistent across different markets.

Factor in that PS4 is still outselling XB1 by at least 2:1 - Scorpio would need to sell at 40% of base XB1 sales just to match the Pro launch aligned (not catch up or outsell it).

 

[SneakersSO]

Yeah, I think the real loser as the result of a successful Switch is Xbox. Sony and Nintendo now offer two very different and compelling products. The only reason to even consider a Scorpio is if you only care about third party games, you care about power (but not too much, otherwise you'd just buy a PC), and you are ok with paying a premium for it.

Sony offers all the third party options + fantastic first party, for less money. Nintendo offers a completely unique experience you cannot get anywhere else and it's resonating with consumers. I genuinely don't see what MS offers a potential buyer anymore, outside of power. That' alone is not a great proposition.

Yeah, this post absolutely nails the market realities MS faces as Nintendo continues to grow its software offerings for their burgeoning platform. If the market is such that the overwhelming majority of users are on a platform that is already receiving all 3rd party offerings + a plethora of titles unique to the platform itself, and another platform emerges with their own unique use cases, then what is unique about the X1 platform that the other platforms already don't cover?

 

[Bgamer90]

Yeah, I think the real loser as the result of a successful Switch is Xbox. Sony and Nintendo now offer two very different and compelling products. The only reason to even consider a Scorpio is if you only care about third party games, you care about power (but not too much, otherwise you'd just buy a PC), and you are ok with paying a premium for it.

Sony offers all the third party options + fantastic first party, for less money. Nintendo offers a completely unique experience you cannot get anywhere else and it's resonating with consumers. I genuinely don't see what MS offers a potential buyer anymore, outside of power. That' alone is not a great proposition.

That proposition is similar to what caused Sony to make gains this gen. PS4 has done well thanks to solid third party support, core gaming focused messaging, and better power over older consoles.

The criticisms that MS is getting now with their lineup were pretty much said about Sony back in 2014 to the point in which Sony made a statement about exclusives (which I felt was silly considering their lineup was never that bad).

There's really something for everyone with all three consoles but people that are buying the Xbox and PlayStation the most this gen simply want solid boxes that are more powerful than what they currently have to play popular games. Microsoft should still create more exclusives since there's no negative to having a larger library of solid games to play but I don't see how that would help Microsoft's position when it comes to overall sales. It would help stop the articles being made about MS's current exclusive lineup but the interest in the system/brand would more than likely largely be the same -- "I play on this brand for (various muliplats)."

 

[Bgamer90]

Look, the reason MS even invested in these territories throughout '05 - 2010 was specifically so they could stem the tide of defacto exclusives Sony was getting as a result of being relevant in those regions. Sure, 360 was far behind PS3 in JP, but JP devs still saw the platform as worthwhile to release on for almost all of their endeavors last gen. Now that MS has regressed their support in that region, they have lost a large chunk of the 3rd party support they were getting on the 360, and Sony is now getting exclusives at almost no cost to them.

Its a matter of optics, and if MS isn't going to put in work to get JP devs to consider releasing on their machine, which is profitable in 2 western regions that they are relevant in, then this problem where devs just continue to focus on PC/Playstation/Nintendo is just going to continue to create questions around the topic of MS relevancy in the gaming sector outside of being an OS/API supplier.

But I think those questions are coming from people that don't make up the majority of console gamers this gen. I'm not saying that MS shouldn't try doing it (complaining about more games to play would be silly) but I don't see how it's going to greatly boost their current sales in any way.

Console gaming has become far more multiplatform dominant and I think that being a solid box for these titles (which is how many viewed the PS4 early on this gen thanks to power and marketing) has caused more of the sales gains the PlayStation brand has had than their exclusives -- especially in the Xbox 360 dominant territories.

 

[Ascenion]

MS this gen is way less diverse than MS in past gens. They attempted to expand but are mainly back to the core stable of IPs.

That's what happens when nothing sticks. ReCore? Didn't do well. Sunset Overdrive? Not sure it did all that well either. Quantum Break? Also didn't do too hot. Halo is one of the biggest IPs in gaming and while it's waining it's still probably not gonna do anything less than 5 Million. That's guaranteed money so of course the fall back on that. Forza too, Gears to a lesser extent. They aren't the market leader and they can't get a new IP to stick, I mean what can they do?

 

[OrbitalBeard]

That's what happens when nothing sticks. ReCore? Didn't do well. Sunset Overdrive? Not sure it did all that well either. Quantum Break? Also didn't do too hot. Halo is one of the biggest IPs in gaming and while it's waining it's still probably not gonna do anything less than 5 Million. That's guaranteed money so of course the fall back on that. Forza too, Gears to a lesser extent. They aren't the market leader and they can't get a new IP to stick, I mean what can they do?

ReCore didn't stick because they gave Armature a small budget, no time, and released an unfinished product. That IP actually had potential.

Sunset Overdrive is the type of IP you give room to breathe and time to grow. It's really unfortunate MS didn't give that series at least one more shot.

Scalebound breaks my heart. Kamiya is a creative genius and Platinum seem to be quite good at meeting deadlines / controlling budget, so I find it very hard to believe that project wasn't meddled with by MS management into oblivion.

All of the above is clearly my own personal take.

 

[SneakersSO]

But I think those questions are coming from people that don't make up the majority of console gamers this gen. I'm not saying that MS shouldn't try doing it (complaining about more games to play would be silly) but I don't see how it's going to greatly boost their current sales in any way.

Console gaming has become far more multiplatform dominant and I think that being a solid box for these titles (which is how many viewed the PS4 early on this gen thanks to power and marketing) has caused more of the sales gains the PlayStation brand has had than their exclusives -- especially in the Xbox 360 dominant territories.

It doesn't boost sales in & of itself, but just like it helped for the 360, it helps deflate this natural 'diversity' the PS4 library gets to position the PS4 in, which is now in a place that the X1 isn't in anymore. It is multiplatform dominant, but the differences are creating strong value propositions that the market is listening to in both Nintendo & Sony's case. Allowing a region of developers to just support one platform while there is no reason they shouldn't support the X1, is asinine.

 

[Loris146]

That's what happens when nothing sticks. ReCore? Didn't do well. Sunset Overdrive? Not sure it did all that well either. Quantum Break? Also didn't do too hot. Halo is one of the biggest IPs in gaming and while it's waining it's still probably not gonna do anything less than 5 Million. That's guaranteed money so of course the fall back on that. Forza too, Gears to a lesser extent. They aren't the market leader and they can't get a new IP to stick, I mean what can they do?

You can create new IP even if you are not the market leader. Halo for example in the PS2 era , Uncharted , LBP in WII era etc... Splatoon in the PS4 era. You "just" need a great team with a good idea ( and of course it's important to pay attention to the current market ).

 

[Bgamer90]

That's what happens when nothing sticks. ReCore? Didn't do well. Sunset Overdrive? Not sure it did all that well either. Quantum Break? Also didn't do too hot. Halo is one of the biggest IPs in gaming and while it's waining it's still probably not gonna do anything less than 5 Million. That's guaranteed money so of course the fall back on that. Forza too, Gears to a lesser extent. They aren't the market leader and they can't get a new IP to stick, I mean what can they do?

It would be nice if Sea of Thieves did well but I don't see it happening right now.

The game is following the current trend of popular AAA multiplats -- a multiplayer GaaS format but the style and premise seems too niche (cartoony pirate game) to really do well. We'll see though.

 

[Primethius]

That's what happens when nothing sticks. ReCore? Didn't do well. Sunset Overdrive? Not sure it did all that well either. Quantum Break? Also didn't do too hot. Halo is one of the biggest IPs in gaming and while it's waining it's still probably not gonna do anything less than 5 Million. That's guaranteed money so of course the fall back on that. Forza too, Gears to a lesser extent. They aren't the market leader and they can't get a new IP to stick, I mean what can they do?

Part of it is building a larger stable of IPs for the next go around. MS just typically doesn't do that. They dropped most of their stuff from OG Xbox, then the same with 360. Precisely, as you point out, due to a lack of sales success.

But it's not as if every IP that's big now started off big. Everyone knows that UC4 is big. I was on GAF when Uncharted 1 launched in NA. You should've seen the NPD threads.

It sold 117k in the opening month.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Uncharted is a great example of having confidence in your team and giving an IP time to grow. The fist game honestly wasn't that great, but the series had a ton of potential. Now look at it.

 

[Cipherr]

I went and looked it up. Wow even madden 07 only sold 250k between both consoles. I had no idea it was that low.

And CoD only 333k.

Its likely that for the Madden titles the previous generation hardware carried the bulk of the sales. Those huge sports fanbases don't always migrate to the new consoles in their launch years right away.

 

[Humdinger]

Pro sales from the information that has been available have been around 20% of the base SKU since it released, and that's been pretty consistent across different markets.

Factor in that PS4 is still outselling XB1 by at least 2:1 - Scorpio would need to sell at 40% of base XB1 sales just to match the Pro launch aligned (not catch up or outsell it).

I was going agree with Bgamer that Scorpio would outsell Pro -- it's a much better upgrade proposition than the Pro was, relative to its base model -- but when you put it this way, I don't think I will. It's hard to imagine Scorpio making up 30 or 40% of the total Xbox sales. It might conceivably happen for the first month or two, but not long term.

 

[jroc74]

I was going agree with Bgamer that Scorpio would outsell Pro -- it's a much better upgrade proposition than the Pro was, relative to its base model -- but when you put it this way, I don't think I will. It's hard to imagine Scorpio making up 30 or 40% of the total Xbox sales. It might conceivably happen for the first month or two, but not long term.

Yea I'm starting to think this as well now, and agree with him too.

Going from PS4 to Pro isn't the same as going from XBO to Scorpio.

PS4 to Pro is going from best to best.
XBO to Scorpio is going from worst to best.

Wildcard will be PS4 owners too that didn't get a Pro.

Its more incentive for XBO owners to upgrade vs PS4 owners if staying in the ecosystem.

In this sense it might do better. Price might be the key also.

 

[Bgamer90]

Pro sales from the information that has been available have been around 20% of the base SKU since it released, and that's been pretty consistent across different markets.

Factor in that PS4 is still outselling XB1 by at least 2:1 - Scorpio would need to sell at 40% of base XB1 sales just to match the Pro launch aligned (not catch up or outsell it).

I was going agree with Bgamer that Scorpio would outsell Pro -- it's a much better upgrade proposition than the Pro was, relative to its base model -- but when you put it this way, I don't think I will. It's hard to imagine Scorpio making up 30 or 40% of the total Xbox sales. It might conceivably happen for the first month or two, but not long term.

I think it all depends on when the Scorpio launches. If it launches in October, then the percentage of overall Xbox One sales it would make up would probably be pretty high (possibly 50% or even more). It wouldn't be if it launched in November though.

Not that many "mainstream gamers" buy consoles during Q1 and Q2 so I could see those months being closer to a 50/50 split between the S and Scorpio than November or December would (smaller overall sales = smaller denominator). Especially if Microsoft makes some Scorpio bundles with free games.

PS4 free game bundles have been alongside regular PS4s and not PS4 Pros and I feel that this has played a role in the regular PS4s selling better than the Pro too (outside of just price).
__________________

Its more incentive for XBO owners to upgrade vs PS4 owners if staying in the ecosystem.

In this sense it might do better. Price might be the key also.

Yeah, this is where I was coming from. On top of this, if you bought an Xbox One before Holiday 2014 then chances are you care more about the Xbox brand than the average gamer. The PR the Xbox brand had at the time was still pretty bad. I could see a large number of these people (maybe even the majority depending on price) upgrading to the Scorpio eventually. Especially considering the way Microsoft is pushing this. Their advertising push is far closer to "new console" than a "new model" (a la Xbox One S).

People that bought a PS4 before Holiday 2014 were a good mix of hardcore gamers and mainstream gamers (the latter of which bought the system for games like Destiny). Some hardcore people are upgrading to the PS4 Pro but it doesn't seem like the more mainstream PS4 owners that got the system during that time are doing it.

 

[Bgamer90]

I went and looked it up. Wow even madden 07 only sold 250k between both consoles. I had no idea it was that low.

And CoD only 333k.

Madden was still more popular alongside PlayStation during that time. Xbox didn't get online play for Madden until Madden 2005 while the PS2 had it since Madden 2003. That combined with the PS2's overall sales crushing Xbox helped. Madden having a terrible transition from PS2/Xbox -> 360/PS3 played a role too. Many people still stuck with the older console versions until 2008 or so.

Call of Duty in 2006 was still relatively new on consoles so the sales not being that big doesn't surprise me either. The series didn't become heavily Xbox marketed/popular until after Modern Warfare.

 

[Bastables]

Please come back and revisit this in 6 months to a year.

We dont know how successful or average Switch will be, it was always going to sell well in first 6 months to the hardcore fans anyway and INITIAL sales results are just a function of shipping logistics.

Sony and MS and Nintendo have no Idea how well Switch will sell after 6 -12 months (after it has been adopted by the hardcore fans).

This has been the bullshit that Kyle orland and Ars Tecnica have tried to sell sure. It falls apart when actually looking at the the top day one/opening sales within generations correlating with the end "Market Leader" every time.

Kyle orland actually tried to bring up the fortnight opening sales of Xbox and Gamecube, which was still lower than the Day one sales of the PS2.

Dayone sales of PS4 in North America= 1 million
Dayone sales of Xboxone in 13 territories = 1 million

Regard the need for MS to report across 13 territories and the state of the console's sales today.

 

[Humdinger]

I think it all depends on when the Scorpio launches. If it launches in October, then the percentage of overall Xbox One sales it would make up would probably be pretty high (possibly 50% or even more). It wouldn't be if it launched in November though.

Not that many "mainstream gamers" buy consoles during Q1 and Q2 so I could see those months being closer to a 50/50 split between the S and Scorpio than November or December would (smaller overall sales = smaller denominator).

Could be, although I don't think we've got the data with the Pro to know for sure whether that's true (that percentage of Pro sales are higher in Q1, Q2 and lower in November/December). However, I am talking about overall sales, not just sales from particular months or quarters.

... Especially considering the way Microsoft is pushing this. Their advertising push is far closer to "new console" than a "new model" (a la Xbox One S).

Yup.

Still, they've also made it clear that this is an upgraded model for the elite, the guys who want the best Xbox money can buy, the ones who are into 4K gaming, etc. -- not for the masses.

I'm waiting to hear the price. I'm not saying anything that people don't know, but price will be a big determinant of how many Xbox owners are willing to upgrade. If there's one thing we know about gamers, it's that they are cheap, er, price-sensitive.

 

[Hero]

This has been the bullshit that Kyle orland and Ars Tecnica have tried to sell sure. It falls apart when actually looking at the the top day one/opening sales within generations correlating with the end "Market Leader" every time.

Kyle orland actually tried to bring up the fortnight opening sales of Xbox and Gamecube, which was still lower than the Day one sales of the PS2.

Dayone sales of PS4 in North America= 1 million
Dayone sales of Xboxone in 13 territories = 1 million

Regard the need for MS to report across 13 territories and the state of the console's sales today.

This. Nobody should listen to Kyle Orland.

 

[Cipherr]

We dont know if its a hit or not, if Nintendo had shipped 3 million it would of sold out, if Ps4 had shipped more in first month it would of sold out, core fans do that to new consoles.

I have seen so many generations at this point that the bolded has become comical. Its trotted out when someone wants to write off a successful launch, and its tucked away into their pockets when everyone asks about unsuccessful console launches like the WiiU and PS3 to a degree, and the Xbox in Japan, and the Saturn and all of those with soft launches.

People will literally make the claim that "core fans always snap up all the supply at launch" then turn around and have no answer for the unsuccessful console launches. What happened to the core fans that always buy in those cases eh?

*crickets*

 

[KawabataSan]

This has been the bullshit that Kyle orland and Ars Tecnica have tried to sell sure. It falls apart when actually looking at the the top day one/opening sales within generations correlating with the end "Market Leader" every time.

Kyle orland actually tried to bring up the fortnight opening sales of Xbox and Gamecube, which was still lower than the Day one sales of the PS2.

Dayone sales of PS4 in North America= 1 million
Dayone sales of Xboxone in 13 territories = 1 million

Regard the need for MS to report across 13 territories and the state of the console's sales today.

If you want to call out Kyle Orland then that's fine. But don't get stuff wrong in the process.

PS2 did have a lower opening than both GameCube and Xbox yet ultimately sold more.

 

[Bastables]

If you want to call out Kyle Orland then that's fine. But don't get stuff wrong in the process.

PS2 did have a lower opening than both GameCube and Xbox yet ultimately sold more.

Ps2 sold 500k in it's first 24hrs

GameCube got to 500k in a week

Xbox got to 550k in a week

Think really hard about the implications of 24 hrs vurses 7 days.

Think really hard about how thus far the consoles that have beat PS2 record day one opening have been, Switch and PS4.

(All US opening sales, think by the time PS2 debuted in the US, Asia/Japan had 3.5 million shipped to the market).

 

[slavesnyder]

The problem is, as someone who has bought every Forza, Gears and Halo game - there is little excitement left.

Chocolate, vanilla and strawberry

 

[Primethius]

I'd say the comments are plenty fair. It's fine for Sony, MS and Nintendo to hang their hats on established franchises.
The problem is, as someone who has bought every Forza, Gears and Halo game - there is little excitement left.
I'd argue that Sony and Nintendo are taking more risks and putting more effort (and polish) into their titles. You only need to look at the quality of the last Uncharted or BOTW to see the difference.

This is something that I think goes missed. And perhaps it's unique to just our/my personal experiences but it shapes a lot of my thinking when it comes to Xbox.

PS4 is the first Sony console I bought. Before that, I was a life long MS/Nintendo buyer. In fact, I'd easily wager that I was an Xbox fan longer than most current Xbox fans on GAF/Internet and definitely more hardcore in that sense. And I know several friends in the same boat.

That's probably what makes the whole Scorpio thing seem so strange for me with them chasing the power/enthusiast crowd. They've lost Halo fans, they've lost Gears fans etc but they haven't actually done much to get them back and are seemingingly focused on the enthusiast crowd 4 years in with a handful of successful IPs which have declined in popularity.

I don't know any of my Xbox friends who left Xbox at the start of this gen who have been captivated to go back outside of Halo MCC (yea... that says it all really). And I don't feel that MS has made much of a play at all at getting those lapsed fans back, which is why I don't really think they have much of a long term strategy.

Unless my thinking is all wrong but I'd like to believe that the road to recovery for MS would involve at some point rebuilding the massive success of their franchices and getting back some of their core base. If they can't even do that, then I'm not sure what their plan of attack is.

*If it wasn't clear, post based largely in anecdotes. And I'm using the quote as a springboard for extended thoughts.

 

[allan-bh]

At least in USA I believe that Scorpio can be more successful than Pro because the gains over original model are higher and is coming after 4 years of Xbox One.

It's a console more desired for the current base and has more potential to attract new consumers since is the more powerful of the market.

But there is still a very important open question, the price...

 

[allan-bh]

That's not what i was saying.

If you see the conversation i had assumed the poster was taking wii u and switch. But he or she clarified.

I'm saying 07 because that was at ps3s launch and came out on 360 at the same time.

Madden 07 was launched in august 06 for 360.

 

[black070]

That's what happens when nothing sticks. ReCore? Didn't do well. Sunset Overdrive? Not sure it did all that well either. Quantum Break? Also didn't do too hot. Halo is one of the biggest IPs in gaming and while it's waining it's still probably not gonna do anything less than 5 Million. That's guaranteed money so of course the fall back on that. Forza too, Gears to a lesser extent. They aren't the market leader and they can't get a new IP to stick, I mean what can they do?

Keep trying.

 

[Nightengale]

I'm pretty sure MS is still trying.

The danger of trying at this stage of the console lifecycle though, is how it probably affected projected or intended timelines of their broad portfolio expectation in year 4/5/6 of a console generation.

A few years ago, they might had assumed that they would have at least one or two of the big AAA new IP bets turn out to be successful, and that by now we'd be hearing of a Sunset Overdrive 2 or a Ryse 2.

But with new IP bets they've made early in the generation fail, they've got to bet on new AAA IPs again, and the challenge with new AAA IPs is the fact that they take longer to make (most of the time) compared to safe, established bets.

This will naturally have an adverse effect where your portfolio of games in certain years end up slimmer or less than desired, because whatever 2-3 year plan you had for new franchises had to become 4-5 year plans once you factor in the extra development needs.

 

[Principate]

I'm pretty sure MS is still trying.

The danger of trying at this stage of the console lifecycle though, is how it probably affected projected or intended timelines of their broad portfolio expectation in year 4/5/6 of a console generation.

A few years ago, they might had assumed that they would have at least one or two of the big AAA new IP bets turn out to be successful, and that by now we'd be hearing of a Sunset Overdrive 2 or a Ryse 2.

But with new IP bets they've made early in the generation fail, they've got to bet on new AAA IPs again, and the challenge with new AAA IPs is the fact that they take longer to make (most of the time) compared to safe, established bets.

This will naturally have an adverse effect where your portfolio of games in certain years end up slimmer or less than desired, because whatever 2-3 year plan you had for new franchises had to become 4-5 year plans once you factor in the extra development needs.

The thing is haven't they pretty much said they're not following that anymore and are talking a geberationless approach going forwards. For al intents and purposes this is a new generation for them.

 

[Boke1879]

Keep trying.

You're right. They have to keep trying. Would have loved to see a sequel to Sunset Overdrive.

The engine is already there. I doubt it would cost that much and it bolsters your portfolio. But there isn't much at least in the short term that shows they will keep trying.

I mean eyes will be on them at E3. We know Scorpio will be a big focus of their conference. They are going to need to excite with games.

 

[Nightengale]

The thing is haven't they pretty much said they're not following that anymore and are talking a geberationless approach going forwards. For al intents and purposes this is a new generation for them.

I'm pretty confident that anywhere from 2-4 years from now, we'll hear of a new "generationless console" where they will tell us it will be time for a cut-off point where devs could target hardware specs without needing to support XB1 anymore.

And that from that period of time, a vast majority of first-party games will only be playable on platforms with a certain spec, abandoning the current XB1 support.

For all intents and purposes, so long as there will be a cut-off window where development of XB1-spec software ceases as new products are introduced as the spec benchmark, that is the new generation.

 

[Chobel]

The "generationless" talk became bullshit the second Scorpio CPU revealed to be Jaguar.

 

[ethomaz]

The "generationless" talk became bullshit the second Scorpio CPU revealed to be Jaguar.

It was always supposed to have a new generation in 2019/2020 even with Pro/Scorpio.

What I think MS will do is fully support BC to Xbox One next generation.

 

[MisterR]

It is interesting to see what console manufacturers can use to make a gamer change allegiances mid generation... that is not just an MS issue but also applies to Sony and Nintendo.

Replace halo with zelda, and it reads the same for Nintendo, or maybe Uncharted for Sony, so your comments are not fair.

Except Uncharted is still a franchise that was growing with each installment. So it is drawing in new people, while Halo continues to decline.

 

[gtj1092]

Ps2 sold 500k in it's first 24hrs

GameCube got to 500k in a week

Xbox got to 550k in a week

Think really hard about the implications of 24 hrs vurses 7 days.

Think really hard about how thus far the consoles that have beat PS2 record day one opening have been, Switch and PS4.

(All US opening sales, think by the time PS2 debuted in the US, Asia/Japan had 3.5 million shipped to the market).

What were switches day 1 sales?