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[hydrophilic attack]

The way I see it, you can divide most games coming out today into these rough categories:

Games published by platform holders
Big budget Western games
Japanese games
Indies

With Scorpio. Microsoft seems to be doubling down pretty hard on having the platform where big budget western games play the best. Problem is, these days, many people are really fucking tired if big-budget Western games. If you enjoy guns and/or cars and/or GaaS microtransactions, I guess you will still find big budget Western games interesting. But for those of us who got bored of that stuff years ago, Microsoft don't really have much to offer.

The others do first-party games, Japanese games and Indies as well, or way better. And those categories of games are where gaming is actually moving into interesting territories at the moment, in my opinion

 

[Aaronrules380]

What were switches day 1 sales?

we don't know. In general I feel like we don't get those types of numbers anymore. The closest is that the first 3 days in Japan the system sold over 300k (and more than the PS4's first recorded week as well, but I don't know how many days of that week the ps4 was selling for)

 

[Welfare]

Ps2 sold 500k in it's first 24hrs

GameCube got to 500k in a week

Xbox got to 550k in a week

Think really hard about the implications of 24 hrs vurses 7 days.

Think really hard about how thus far the consoles that have beat PS2 record day one opening have been, Switch and PS4.

(All US opening sales, think by the time PS2 debuted in the US, Asia/Japan had 3.5 million shipped to the market).

Don't know where you got the PS2 number, but the PS2 October 2000 debut was 391,000.

 

[Jigorath]

The "generationless" talk became bullshit the second Scorpio CPU revealed to be Jaguar.

.

 

[Bastables]

Don't know where you got the PS2 number, but the PS2 October 2000 debut was 391,000.

With a first-day sell-through of slightly more than 500,000 units, revenues generated by PlayStation 2 console sales were more than $149 million, meaning that software and peripheral sales on October 26


The PlayStation 2's day-one sell-through number (more than 500,000) marks an industry record for the fastest a gaming console has ever sold

http://au.ign.com/articles/2000/11/07/sony-pulls-in-over-250-million-at-launch

 

[Principate]

I'm pretty confident that anywhere from 2-4 years from now, we'll hear of a new "generationless console" where they will tell us it will be time for a cut-off point where devs could target hardware specs without needing to support XB1 anymore.

And that from that period of time, a vast majority of first-party games will only be playable on platforms with a certain spec, abandoning the current XB1 support.

For all intents and purposes, so long as there will be a cut-off window where development of XB1-spec software ceases as new products are introduced as the spec benchmark, that is the new generation.

True but that also doesn't specifically mean the generation after the XB1 will expictly not have games able to run on the XB1. It's like a PC, not every game has a compatiblity with anywhre near most of the pc's out there, but as far as age goes they can go a fair bit.

 

[ethomaz]

With a first-day sell-through of slightly more than 500,000 units, revenues generated by PlayStation 2 console sales were more than $149 million, meaning that software and peripheral sales on October 26


The PlayStation 2's day-one sell-through number (more than 500,000) marks an industry record for the fastest a gaming console has ever sold

http://au.ign.com/articles/2000/11/07/sony-pulls-in-over-250-million-at-launch

These 500k are NA or US?
And looks to be shipment.

The US launch, on October 26 was also rather mixed: the initial shipment of consoles was revised downwards at the last minute, from 1 million to 500,000, but there were many more games available at launch.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/playstation-a-history-b

Edit - Just found another source "U.S.: 500K sold and shipped in one weekend (NA)."

This IGN news get the info wrong.

 

[Bgamer90]

It was always supposed to have a new generation in 2019/2020 even with Pro/Scorpio.

What I think MS will do is fully support BC to Xbox One next generation.

Yeah, I think for MS, generations are dead when it comes to xbox consoles not having compatibility for previous games and accessories (no cut off points from here on out). There will definitely be new Xbox consoles.

 

[Version 3.0]

These 500k are NA or US?
And looks to be shipment.



http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/playstation-a-history-b

Edit - Just found another source "U.S.: 500K sold and shipped in one weekend (NA)."

This IGN news get the info wrong.

Back then, Sony always used different terminology than the rest of the industry. "Shipped", to them, meant sent from the production line to their own warehouses. And "sold", to them, meant sold to retailers (which would be "sold-in" to anyone else. They never reported sold-through figures. They didn't stop with this nonsense until the PS3 era.

NPD's figure for October 2000 U.S. sales of the PS2 was 391,245, which was easily beaten by both the Gamecube and Xbox the next November. Through December, the PS2 sold 1.1 million, which was also beaten the next year by both of the other two.

We all know how this turned out. So if there's a narrative that launch numbers have a bearing on later results, then put a big asterisk on all the launches that were supply constrained. Which is, like, half of them. Plus, anything can happen. Let's not forget the way the DS Lite kicked the DS into high gear.

 

[ethomaz]

Back then, Sony always used different terminology than the rest of the industry. "Shipped", to them, meant sent from the production line to their own warehouses. And "sold", to them, meant sold to retailers (which would be "sold-in" to anyone else. They never reported sold-through figures. They didn't stop with this nonsense until the PS3 era.

Looks like Sony have some production issues near the PS2 launch because they changed the 1m shipment to NA to only 500k just before the release.

After that like you said they reached 1m+ sold in December when Sony supplied the market.

 

[SlimySnake]

Why are we looking at PS2 numbers when we know the PS4 sold a million units in a day?

X1 also sold over 900k units in its first month of sales.

 

[Zedark]

Why are we looking at PS2 numbers when we know the PS4 sold a million units in a day?

X1 also sold over 900k units in its first month of sales.

Actually, we don't know that about the XB1 anymore. NPD representatives in this thread said they adjusted the XB1 number down, and now it is below Switch' 906k, but we don't know how much.

 

[ethomaz]

Why are we looking at PS2 numbers when we know the PS4 sold a million units in a day?

X1 also sold over 900k units in its first month of sales.

You know Xbox One was the fastest* launch** selling** console ever.

Xbox One is Fastest Selling Console in the US; November NPD Group Figures Revealed

November NPD Group figures released today revealed 909,132 Xbox One units were sold in the U.S. in the console's first nine days, making it the fastest selling console on the market in the U.S. Xbox One sales averaged a volume of more than 101,000 consoles per day, significantly outpacing the nearest competitor.

Neither PS4 with 1 million day one sales could beat that monster****

Actually, we don't know that about the XB1 anymore. NPD representatives in this thread said they adjusted the XB1 number down, and now it is below Switch' 906k, but we don't know how much.

That is news to me... can you link the post please?

 

[Zedark]

That is news to me... can you link the post please?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=234356243&highlight=#post234356243

See post #348 and #377.

 

[ethomaz]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=234356243&highlight=#post234356243

See post #348 and #377.

Thank you.

OMG I lived a lie since 2013 the MS PR spin I posted few minutes ago makes even less sense now

 

[Hero]

So is it safe to say Mass Effect bombed?

 

[SlimySnake]

You know Xbox One was the fastest* launch** selling** console ever.

November NPD Group figures released today revealed 909,132 Xbox One units were sold in the U.S. in the console's first nine days, making it the fastest selling console on the market in the U.S. Xbox One sales averaged a volume of more than 101,000 consoles per day, significantly outpacing the nearest competitor.

Neither PS4 with 1 million day one sales could beat that monster****


That is news to me... can you link the post please?

that has to be the saddest PR spin i have ever read. just truly embarrassing. I mean it's not like they got blown away by the PS4 either. there was a 100k gap b/w the two which is quite respectable considering there were online polls stating a 90-10 preference for the PS4 after E3.

What a sad sad company. who was in charge at this point? i know Mattrick had left already but i dont think Phill would say something bizarre like this.

So is it safe to say Mass Effect bombed?

800k in one territory isnt bomba but it's half a million less than their previous entry which was received very poorly. i am sure EA isnt happy with the sales, but i dont think it did too bad considering how strong the backlash was for this game before release.

next month's sales will be important. i think there is good word of mouth out there countering the backlash voices. it will be interesting to see if people go and buy the game despite the poor reviews and internet outrage. After all, Ghost Recon also had a similar metacritic (73) and a poor beta according to the internet but its the best selling game of the year.

 

[Some Nobody]

So is it safe to say Mass Effect bombed?

It outsold Mass Effect 1 and 2's debut, is the third best-selling game for March, and accomplished both these things in only ten days. So...I wouldn't say it was.

If it still charts decently for this month then absolutely not.

 

[Nightengale]

It outsold Mass Effect 1 and 2's debut, is the third best-selling game for March, and accomplished both these things in only ten days. So...I wouldn't say it was.

If it still charts decently for this month then absolutely not.

Mass Effect 1: only on 360
Mass Effect 2: one year timed-exclusive on 360, came to PS3 a year later.

Now, that doesn't mean it's unsuccessful.

But by rational account, if I were EA, I would had naturally expected Andromeda to outsell the trilogy average by 20-30%, because it would be a new starting point that did not alienate the PlayStation userbase the same way the original trilogy did.

 

[John Harker]

Thanks!

Another question: earlier this year, you said that you expect For Honor to outsell GR: Wildlands, however we're seeing the opposite here. Obviously you had metrics and data to support your prediction, and it was also before the beta, so my question is: Do you think the beta was just that hugely positive? Or was it some other hidden parameter(s) you didn't account for?

Anecdotally, public-facing info had FH tracking better (twitch data, YT data, google trends data) than Ghost Recon up till the betas. For the Betas, Ghost just ended up doing and seemingly converting from Beta higher than I would have expected. FH performed really well, Ghost performed better than I expected (and likely benefited from being a more 'mass market' genre, military + open world")

 

[Kill3r7]

Mass Effect 1: only on 360
Mass Effect 2: one year timed-exclusive on 360, came to PS3 a year later.

Now, that doesn't mean it's unsuccessful.

But by rational account, if I were EA, I would had naturally expected Andromeda to outsell the trilogy average by 20-30%, because it would be a new starting point that did not alienate the PlayStation userbase the same way the original trilogy did.

Agreed. I think that is in line with their expectations but that does not take into account the negative feedback from ME3 and the game actually being a disappointment compared to the original series. Either way I think they can turn it around with further support and some awesome DLC. All things considered those are not awful sales numbers.

 

[Version 3.0]

that has to be the saddest PR spin i have ever read. just truly embarrassing. I mean it's not like they got blown away by the PS4 either. there was a 100k gap b/w the two which is quite respectable considering there were online polls stating a 90-10 preference for the PS4 after E3.

What a sad sad company. who was in charge at this point? i know Mattrick had left already but i dont think Phill would say something bizarre like this.

Well, it was 200k...900k vs 1.1m for the month. And the math is technically correct: the XB1 was on sale for 9 days vs. the PS4 for 16 days in that tracking period. So that equates to 70k per day for PS4 and 100k for XB1. But it shows how dishonest you can be, even while using real data.

It'd be like saying "On Thursday, we were a million units behind. But on Friday, we were only 200,000 units behind. We're catching up fast!".

Or, you know, disco record sales.jpg.

 

[Asd202]

So any numbers for PS4 and Xbone?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

So any numbers for PS4 and Xbone?

Nada.

 

[jjonez18]

So any numbers for PS4 and Xbone?

For the last couple of months the only info we've been given is who in the prediction threads got the closest.

 

[Hero]

that has to be the saddest PR spin i have ever read. just truly embarrassing. I mean it's not like they got blown away by the PS4 either. there was a 100k gap b/w the two which is quite respectable considering there were online polls stating a 90-10 preference for the PS4 after E3.

What a sad sad company. who was in charge at this point? i know Mattrick had left already but i dont think Phill would say something bizarre like this.



800k in one territory isnt bomba but it's half a million less than their previous entry which was received very poorly. i am sure EA isnt happy with the sales, but i dont think it did too bad considering how strong the backlash was for this game before release.

next month's sales will be important. i think there is good word of mouth out there countering the backlash voices. it will be interesting to see if people go and buy the game despite the poor reviews and internet outrage. After all, Ghost Recon also had a similar metacritic (73) and a poor beta according to the internet but its the best selling game of the year.

It outsold Mass Effect 1 and 2's debut, is the third best-selling game for March, and accomplished both these things in only ten days. So...I wouldn't say it was.

If it still charts decently for this month then absolutely not.

EA expected 3 million sales of ME:A though.

 

[Kill3r7]

EA expected 3 million sales of ME:A though.

WW vs NPD but yeah if I would guess that it is safe to say that they fell well short of that.

 

[slavesnyder]

Mass Effect has lost its appeal and mojo.
But it would be awesome if Bioware could do something alike with the Star Wars franchise.

 

[Claude Augario]

Mass Effect has lost its appeal and mojo.
But it would be awesome if Bioware could do something alike with the Star Wars franchise.

My force is tired?

 

[Liabe Brave]

For the last couple of months the only info we've been given is who in the prediction threads got the closest.

But from that, I have calculated parameters for the actual numbers. Here's the result:

January: PS4 211k, Xbox One 157k (very tight estimate)
February: PS4 400k, Xbox One 230k (looser estimate, but within close tolerance)

I'm just starting March now, and will post results when obtained.

 

[Zedark]

But from that, I have calculated parameters for the actual numbers. Here's the result:

January: PS4 211k, Xbox One 157k (very tight estimate)
February: PS4 400k, Xbox One 230k (looser estimate, but within close tolerance)

I'm just starting March now, and will post results when obtained.

I did some of that already, look at the last posts of the predictions thread for March.

 

[ethomaz]

But from that, I have calculated parameters for the actual numbers. Here's the result:

January: PS4 211k, Xbox One 157k (very tight estimate)
February: PS4 400k, Xbox One 230k (looser estimate, but within close tolerance)

I'm just starting March now, and will post results when obtained.

What surprised me was PS4 at minimum 3% up yoy with March results.

This year has good chances to be the peak for PS4.

Edit - Used wrong numbers for 2016... fixed.

 

[Liabe Brave]

I did some of that already, look at the last posts of the predictions thread for March.

Thanks, I did see them!

What surprised me was PS4 at minimum 22% up yoy with March results.

Actually, I've been able to make some further refinements to the estimates, which put the minimum gain for PS4 at 20% rather than 22%. There's some extra difficulty this month narrowing down the final range, because GAF predictions were not very diverse. I'm attempting several other approaches that may allow increased precision.

 

[freefornow]

800k in one territory isnt bomba but it's half a million less than their previous entry which was received very poorly. i am sure EA isnt happy with the sales, but i dont think it did too bad considering how strong the backlash was for this game before release.

Is that 800k with digital or retail only?

 

[allan-bh]

Actually, I've been able to make some further refinements to the estimates, which put the minimum gain for PS4 at 20% rather than 22%. There's some extra difficulty this month narrowing down the final range, because GAF predictions were not very diverse. I'm attempting several other approaches that may allow increased precision.

Thanks for the effort.

 

[ethomaz]

Actually, I've been able to make some further refinements to the estimates, which put the minimum gain for PS4 at 20% rather than 22%. There's some extra difficulty this month narrowing down the final range, because GAF predictions were not very diverse. I'm attempting several other approaches that may allow increased precision.

I found my mistake I used a lower number for March 2016 than 330k and that increased the yoy %.
You have the right minimum grow.

 

[Chobel]

Wait, PS4 is up YoY in 2017?

 

[Primethius]

Wait, PS4 is up YoY in 2017?

Down slightly in Jan/Feb but March makes up for both those months it seems.

 

[mckmas8808]

Wait, PS4 is up YoY in 2017?

Is this true?

 

[ethomaz]

Wait, PS4 is up YoY in 2017?

Is this true?

Yes... but the % is wrong because I used wrong March numbers for last year.

Jan-Mar 2016: 965k
Jan-Mar 2017: >995k

It is minimum 3%.

 

[PanicFreak]

Quick question, does the NPD include revenue from microtransactions when they rank the top 20 games?

 

[Fdkn]

Quick question, does the NPD include revenue from microtransactions when they rank the top 20 games?

No as far as I am aware

 

[MatPiscatella]

Quick question, does the NPD include revenue from microtransactions when they rank the top 20 games?

Nope. Full game only for now.

We are working towards this goal though. Walk before running kind of thing.

 

[Unknown?]

that has to be the saddest PR spin i have ever read. just truly embarrassing. I mean it's not like they got blown away by the PS4 either. there was a 100k gap b/w the two which is quite respectable considering there were online polls stating a 90-10 preference for the PS4 after E3.

What a sad sad company. who was in charge at this point? i know Mattrick had left already but i dont think Phill would say something bizarre like this.



800k in one territory isnt bomba but it's half a million less than their previous entry which was received very poorly. i am sure EA isnt happy with the sales, but i dont think it did too bad considering how strong the backlash was for this game before release.

next month's sales will be important. i think there is good word of mouth out there countering the backlash voices. it will be interesting to see if people go and buy the game despite the poor reviews and internet outrage. After all, Ghost Recon also had a similar metacritic (73) and a poor beta according to the internet but its the best selling game of the year.

Dude their PR is still EXACTLY the same. They still say stupid stuff like this.

 

[Welfare]

Nope. Full game only for now.

We are working towards this goal though. Walk before running kind of thing.

Any update on how PS4/XB1 are doing compared to PS3/360 as of month 41?

 

[MatPiscatella]

Any update on how PS4/XB1 are doing compared to PS3/360 as of month 41?

Been on holiday for two weeks believe it or not. I'll be back at my comp next week, I'll let you know.

 

[Welfare]

Been on holiday for two weeks believe it or not. I'll be back at my comp next week, I'll let you know.

Have fun then!

 

[michaelius]

Yes... but the % is wrong because I used wrong March numbers for last year.

Jan-Mar 2016: 965k
Jan-Mar 2017: >995k

It is minimum 3%.

Well it should be up till we start comparing with months after Pro release and those will be holidays so they will depend on bundles and promotions.

 

[slavesnyder]

Dude their PR is still EXACTLY the same. They still say stupid stuff like this.

“The imaginary is what tends to become real.”
― André Breton

 

[Principate]

Dude their PR is still EXACTLY the same. They still say stupid stuff like this.

Dat increase of Xbox playtime. I bet they wished a spin like that was possible this month.