You're trying really hard to downplay the possibility, when all evidence seems to be suggesting that's going to end up happening. Also keep in mind these systems are just entering their 3rd year. Years 3 and 4 are traditionally where the bulk of sales come from; it's not unrealistic to expect PS4 to sell around 25-30 million for 2016, which is about as much as the system has sold in its first two combined.
And the funny thing about the front-loaded thing is, it isn't even substantial evidence of a severe contraction in sales for either system. Now the XBO could see a LTD limited to 60-70 million sure, but PS2 has much better circumstances going for it than PS3 ever did, which still managed around 85-90 million WW (maybe more than that actually, granted in a longer-than-average gen but still...).
At the very least, it will cross the 100 million line within the next 3 - 3 1/2 years. It probably won't hit PS2's numbers, but it can realistically do around 115-125 million at the pace things are going so far (probably at the lower end of that for 5-6 years. People tend to forget PS2 got to 155 million in 2009, nine years after its launch, not 2005).
I'm not downplaying anything, I am using the current sales and increases and what caused the PS4 to increase.
The PS4 would have to sell more than this year by a decent amount for multiple years to reach 100 million by say 2019-2020. So any time before that is even mroe questionable.
The PS3 and the Xbox 360 had life extending events, so did the PS2. I'm being realistic, what does the PS4, and even the Xbox one, have to extend their lifes to bring back in large sale numbers? Already the PS4 and Xbox one are doing price wars, which will make price no too big of a factor for the latter part of life then it would have been.
We don't see any Kinect or move type devices in sight so far...VR and AR are priced too high to bring in the Kinect/Move etc. Boost.
I mean youa re expecting the PS4 to cross 10 million in the next 3 years, they would have to sell over double this years to do that for 2 of those 3 years, how are they goign to do that?
The PS2 example is flawed because the PS2 had multiple life extending properties, a few of those were online, Eye toy, Cheaper price, PS3 not taking off, dying of Xbox and Gamecube making PS2 games being prominent on shelves (which the Xbox being the main competition in NA and UK, being pulled from shelves before everyone else.), Slim revisions, and TP exclusives, and having mostly the sole market for downgraded cheaper versions of then next gen games.
There's more as well but that's already a huge factor of how the PS2 got to 155 million and 100 million. The PS4 has few if any of this.
What's going to cause PS4 sales to explode or be nearly or tripling what it sold this year for multiple years? The PS4 has tons of factors the PS2 and even the PS3 DO NOT have that will prevent a runaway such as that.
The PS4 has the Xbox one chomping at Marketshare, and to a lesser extend the Wii u, and with the market Nintendo had before being gone the Wii u is in the same market at the PS4 and the Xbox One.
You have the PS4 and Xbox one already doing price and incentive wars world wide and more importantly, in the biggest console buying countries (which if not mistaken are U.S., Britain and Germany). The NX will release soon and will likely takes sales. A lot of games are shared between the PS4 and Xbox One. The PS4 is not running away in the biggest console buying countries with the exceptions of Germany. PS4 sales are down in Japan, PS4 does not have the PS2 sales for piracy in South and Central America and rumorly, is losing to Xbox in the region.
The PS2 had to deal with very little of this and when it did in some form it was usually removed later, or it didn't do much damage.
Your 360/PS4 example is also bad, because as I have said repeatedly, the 360 and PS3 had events that extended their lives and also still had and HAVE the choice of dropping the price more to gain even more sales. $99 or below Xbox 360's and PS3';s would sell, they gradually decreased the prices of each and that gave a lot of sales. Also again and again, Kinect, move, updates, etc. etc.