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NPD Sales Results for October 2007
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
AndersTheSwede
Member
JJConrad said:
Except for the fact that ME is launching a full 2 months after halo, and has no competition in its genre. Little different situation.
moku said:
You will probably be pretty safe on that bet. The Wii and 360 are going to sell a ton in November, but most Wii owners should be picking up Super Mario, while new 360 owners are going to be divided by a half dozen games. I bet SMG sells well over a million, COD 4 around a million, and Mass Effect in the 500K range. COD4 may suprise people though. I think the leaderboard had something like 800K worldwide already, and a ton of people are not connected to Live, and we still have Black Friday.
Count Dookkake
Member
Those Wii eBay sales are amazing given that it has been out for a year.
The PS3 ones are pretty interesting, too.
The PS3 ones are pretty interesting, too.
Red Steel cost 11 Million to develop and saw a great return. Developers are putting MORE money into Wii development in 08 not less. EA now has 500 developers concentrating on Wii development because they see a potential goldmine just like all the other big publishers. All lead consoles see tons of shovelware it comes with the territory so I don't expect Wii to be any different but like all lead consoles we will see some high calibur games start to move over to Wii also. If franchise A can make a publisher 10 million on PS3/360 then it could potentially make double that on Wii if the game is good enough. I think next year we will a lot more quality games from publishers on Wii.Of All Trades said:
PGR4 is a game where the reasons for it's sales utterly collapsing this month are very clear: Microsoft's other big racer from this year is bundled with the system. Existing racing fans just got Forza a few months ago, and now their plate is stacked with other games. There's a discussion to be had about other titles on the 360 not doing well, but PGR4 is a pretty cut and dried example, IMO.JJConrad said:
Basically, MS sent it to die.
I don't think it would have been a smash hit even without Forza, but it took a game that would have done modestly well and tanked it.
As for ME, it's one of Microsoft's two major holiday titles and it's in a very different genre. If it bombs, it will be pretty shocking.
Dai Kaiju
Member
Ok, here's why ME isn't going to do well. Now when I say that, I don't mean it's going to do 34,000 or whatever PGR did...but I don't think Microsoft is going to come close to breaking even with it. Say you're a kid with a 360 or you're asking for one this christmas. What games are you going to want with it? Halo 3, CoD 4, Guitar Hero 3, Rock Band, Assassins Creed, and Mass Effect. The average parent is going to make the kid choose the 2 or 3 that he wants most and I just don't see Mass Effect making the cut.
It doesn't matter that there's no competition in that genre. It's got competition from every freakin genre known to man. Hell, i've bought every single high profile 360 release up until a week ago. I've spent 420 fucking dollars on videogames in the last two months and I just plain can't afford it anymore. I'm sure there are a lot of other hardcore gamers in the same situation. Mass Effect just has way too many things going against it, and like many other games this fall, is being sent to die.
It doesn't matter that there's no competition in that genre. It's got competition from every freakin genre known to man. Hell, i've bought every single high profile 360 release up until a week ago. I've spent 420 fucking dollars on videogames in the last two months and I just plain can't afford it anymore. I'm sure there are a lot of other hardcore gamers in the same situation. Mass Effect just has way too many things going against it, and like many other games this fall, is being sent to die.
C4Lukins said:
Yeah, CoD4 is closing in on 900k on the leaderboards now. I'm not sure how to extrapolate/estimate that to NPD numbers, since those 900k are worldwide and some copies probably have multiple gamertags. And what's the attach rate of XBL Gold? But it will certainly pass 1 million in the US for November. Maybe even 1.5 million (because of Black Friday), but that's maybe stretching it. And even though SMG will most likely outsell it, it's still huge for a 360 shooter in the year of Halo.
Randy Lanzarote
Member
People thought that BioShock would be a million guaranteed on the 360, although I think with this NPD we are around 800k? So I think it might be somewhat presumptious to start throwing around big seven figure numbers at the moment.
Mass Effect is the last 'big' release for the 360 before the Xmas rush starts to kick in, so it has the chance to surf the hype/sales wave into December, but I'm not sure if its the sort of game that will be winging its way into little Jonny's Christmas bundle, it doesn't have that mass-market appeal that Gears of War provided last year. Perhaps, like BioShock before it, it might be a bit more driven by its narrative rather than action to make an impact past the core demographic.
Mass Effect is the last 'big' release for the 360 before the Xmas rush starts to kick in, so it has the chance to surf the hype/sales wave into December, but I'm not sure if its the sort of game that will be winging its way into little Jonny's Christmas bundle, it doesn't have that mass-market appeal that Gears of War provided last year. Perhaps, like BioShock before it, it might be a bit more driven by its narrative rather than action to make an impact past the core demographic.
Psychotext
Member
I was under the impression that a fairly large percentage of the 360 owners were in the 18 - 30 age range. I could be wrong though as I don't have the figures to hand.Dai Kaiju said:
MightyHedgehog
Member
Mass Effect should easily clear a million worldwide by end of year. I think it'll be closer to two million, though. The game's been hyped and talked about more than any other MS release outside of Halo 3 and will, without a doubt, see a big push all through the rest of the year. I'd be shocked if it did fall flat.
When the November NPD comes out, what do you think ME will sell, and how much do you think it should've sold?Dai Kaiju said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=153596sionyboy said:
Actually, a lot of people thought BioShock would bomb.
GenericPseudonym
Banned
Do we have any sort of early barometer for SMG's sales? Like a Best Buy or Walmart notice on exceedingly high sales or low stock? Due to MP3's slow sales and the fact people just recently bought Guitar Hero III, I could see SMG doing below expectations in November.
sionyboy said:
Not sure who was crazy enough to predict Biochosck would sell a million in its first month, especially since it didn't have online leaderboards.
Or to put it another way, you think CoD4 will do less than a million?As for Mass Effect, isn't this the first AAA Western RPG game since Oblivion? I think the market is due for another one, so 4-500k shouldn't be unthinkable.
Randy Lanzarote
Member
True, although that thread was several months before release. I don't think the hype and expectations kicked into gear until the reviews trickled in and the demo hit live, then a lot of people changed their opinion. We're now two days away from a NA release, 5 for Europe, and I'm just not seeing the sort of anticipation for ME that other games have drummed up. Perhaps its because its coming at the end of a VERY busy month, BioShock had the advantage of being preceded by .... The Darkness. ME has to compete on the shelves with H3, HL2, CoD4 and Assassin's Creed.
Its a shame there hasn't been some sort of demo on Live for Mass Effect, when you look at what it did for BioShock or Crackdown it is a much better tool than any review will get you.
That being said, I cannot wait for Mass Effect, I'm looking forward to a brilliant, and lengthy, story driven game.
Not sure who was crazy enough to predict Biochosck would sell a million in its first month, especially since it didn't have online leaderboards.
Not for first month sales, that would have been a bit mental, but rather 1 million over the course of 2007.
GenericPseudonym
Banned
Grecco said:
No but MP3 does show that there is a precedent for an anticipated Wii release to underperform.
The holiday season is crowded. But your scenario limits the conversation to the "kid at Christmas" scenario. The 360 userbase is large enough now that even with a pretty stacked plate many games can do well at once, especially over the holidays. And we should quantify what "doing well" constitutes as well. I can see ME doing 500k in November, and then again in December. That's not the kind of domination that precludes many other games from selling.Dai Kaiju said:
What is your threshold for not doing well?
Of All Trades
Member
No, it (and to a lesser extent, Z&W's bombing) shows us that even if an expensive, 1st party, franchise, AAA (w/ reviews to back it up) game is released during a software drought during a non-off season, it can still get obliterated in sales by wii play. The only Wii games that may have sold over 50k in October were casual/party games.ksamedi said:
rohlfinator
Member
I don't think GH3 will have too much of an effect on Galaxy's sales. Most people with an interest in both games will probably favor buying Galaxy, or just buy both.GenericPseudonym said:
That's a lot of assumptions to draw from very little data.Of All Trades said:
Metroid has never been a blockbuster series, and the game has actually preformed better then I expected so far.
As for Zack and Wiki, it's a point and click adventure, what did you think it was going to sell?
DeadyFernGarden
Member
I don't think Nintendo would be doing a special press release to talk about Galaxy sales if it was selling bad in America.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
at my local store, ME preorders were 5th behind Halo 3, AC, CoD4, & SMG
Dai Kaiju said:
Your overall point (as it applies to games like Stranglehold, Timeshift and Blacksite) is right, but you're wrong about Mass Effect. Those 360 owning adults want Mass Effect, and they've been planning on buying it for six months to a year.
Agent Icebeezy said:
Not only that, Mass Effect will actually do better than all three of those games.
Brakara said:
The early adoption rate for XBL in general was 60% with the 360 as I recall. That includes silver, but silver accounts should also show up on the singleplayer leaderboards. My guess is that the adoption rate has probably slightly decreased as more casuals jump on board.
perfectchaos007
Member
Just wait till Killzone 2 guys. I've already got 2 friends who are buying a PS3 when that game comes out. It will be a system seller for sure.
PhoenixDark
Banned
GenericPseudonym said:
Come on, that's a horrible comparison. MP3 was a serious title with little advertising or buzz, one which didn't appeal to the Wii userbase. Mario is going to appeal to all the little and grown kids who want to play, well, Mario. If people are expecting 1mil sales in a month, they'll probably be disappointed, but it'll still wind up being the first or second best selling game of the holiday season
Diatribe1974
Member
I hereby deem the Wii the "Pet Rock" of the new generation! The kind of thing people buy, then years later, look at it when cleaning out their closets going "Man...what was I thinking?"
The PS3? Man...what are you guys doing to your systems? I mean...c'mon....are all you guys doing nothing but TALKING about buying games for the system, or are you actually buying them? Ratchet & Clank doing this poorly.....man...let's hope sales pick up for November and December, because let's be brutally honest here: If Uncharted and R&C fail, because you guys didn't support them, then you deserve to have all the AAA games going to other systems than your own.
The 360? Price drop MS. Pronto. At this rate, Xmas 2007 will have Nintendo ahead of you by millions of units as of January 1st 2008 and it'll only get worse from there. Stem the flow of blood. Get aggressive.
The PS3? Man...what are you guys doing to your systems? I mean...c'mon....are all you guys doing nothing but TALKING about buying games for the system, or are you actually buying them? Ratchet & Clank doing this poorly.....man...let's hope sales pick up for November and December, because let's be brutally honest here: If Uncharted and R&C fail, because you guys didn't support them, then you deserve to have all the AAA games going to other systems than your own.
The 360? Price drop MS. Pronto. At this rate, Xmas 2007 will have Nintendo ahead of you by millions of units as of January 1st 2008 and it'll only get worse from there. Stem the flow of blood. Get aggressive.
Count Dookkake
Member
DiatribeEQ said:
Looking into the future is easy.
I'm only around page 15 in reading this thread, but I see PGR4 is still being discussed. I don't know if it has been brought up in the last 20 pages or so, but PGR4 launched (Oct 2) in September's NPD reporting period (Sept 2 - Oct 6). It's first week was in that report, so what we are seeing is its second month of sales. Obviously it didn't crack the top ten in September, either, but its total U.S. sales are almost assuredly a good bit higher than the 38.3K shown in the first post.
Just FYI.
Just FYI.
donny2112 said:I'm only around page 15 in reading this thread, but I see PGR4 is still being discussed. I don't know if it has been brought up in the last 20 pages or so, but PGR4 launched (Oct 2) in September's NPD reporting period (Sept 2 - Oct 6). It's first week was in that report, so what we are seeing is its second month of sales. Obviously it didn't crack the top ten in September, either, but its total U.S. sales are almost assuredly a good bit higher than the 38.3K shown in the first post.
Just FYI.
10th on that list was Heavenly Sword at 139K, so the theoretical max for PGR4 is 138K + 38.3K, which is still quite underwhelming (176K) but not as terrible as this month's figures are.
JJConrad said:
Wow. You do realize that that exact same argument could be made for SMG right? How MP3 could be a barometer or how it will perform. And that argument would be just as full of shit as this one.
ME won't bomb. It might not do the crazy sales some are expecting it to (I think I read 3 million in US by 2008), but it is one of the premier titles that MS has been hyping since the beginning of the 360, and you can bet that alot of 360 owners are interested. Just like SMG.
Of All Trades
Member
Or it could be that the majority of Wii owners are uninterested in quality non-party games (And please, don't pull the "Red Steel/RRR" argument, it's really weak) unless that game also contains either the word Mario or Zelda.Windu said:
While I agree that neither of those two (or BWii bombing or Manhunt 2 bombing) are necessarily indicators of failure due to the limited data, they are definately not indicators of success to 3rd parties making resource allocation decisions.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
I don't know if there will be an exact correlation, but COD4's launch week for 360 in the UK was bigger than Gears of War.
If COD was equally as successful here, it would be a little over a million copies sold in November.
If COD was equally as successful here, it would be a little over a million copies sold in November.