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[thepotatoman]

Why will Mario 3D World and MK8 fare any better than NSMBU?

Well the one thing to Wii U's credit is the first two months did sell pretty well, and NSMBU did release at launch, so one might call NSMBU a success that just could only carry 2 months instead the 12 that it apparently needed to do. So in that since you could say all Nintendo needs SM3DW to do is be equally as successful as NSMBU, except this time it will be followed up relatively quickly with MK8 and SSB4.

 

[Striek]

Well the one thing to Wii U's credit is the first two months did sell pretty well, and NSMBU did release at launch, so one might call NSMBU a success that just could only carry 2 months instead the 12 that it apparently needed to do. So in that since you could say all Nintendo needs SM3DW to do is be equally as successful as NSMBU, except this time it will be followed up relatively quickly with MK8 and SSB4.

The 'fact' of the Wii U doing well at launch is highly debatable though. Decembers NPD thread in particular is full of shock at how bad the Wii U did.

Of course I'd argue NSMB is more of a game you pick up with your system than a game you buy a system for, so the failure of the Wii U is not an indictment on the game itself or a reflection of the popularity of the series. 3D Mario is more likely to be a game people buy a system for (but have lower legs because its less appealing to a wide audience than NSMB).

 

[Randolph Freelander]

About the only thing Nintendo did right with Wii U was having a good supply of consoles at launch. Unfortunately, it's the good supply of consoles that revealed quite early just how much trouble the console was in, as it wasn't long into December that it was obvious that the demand just wasn't there.

 

[airmangataosenai]

30k concurrent players on Ghosts when the PS4 is not even out yet in Europe (and has only been out in NA for less than 2 days) seems pretty big. What's the record hardware launch month in the US?

The record belongs to the GBA at 881k.

 

[DragonSworne]

that is definitely a big part of it, but another thing is that they stopped making games for that audience. it's like if activision stopped making call of duty for 3-4 years. or, well, basically what happened to the medal of honor series. they lost the fanbase because they stopped making games that appealed to them. and beyond simply making sequels to wii play, wii party, wii fit, and wii sports, they stopped making new things. the new things were what that audience were really drawn to, and the sequels kept some level of interest. funny- you'd think they would have made wii dance at some point in 2010 or even 2011, but they never did.

on top of that, there's the issue of the wii u itself being a thing that does not grab anyone's imaginations. owners like it in practice, but generally don't get the whole idea about it until after they've plunked down $300.

Great point on the dance genre. Just Dance was the best selling third party game on the Wii the last 2-3 years, but Nintendo never attempted their own take on the genre. What they decided to do was release a karaoke game for Wii U and Karaoke died out back in 2008 after all the Karaoke Revolution clones.

It really does seem like Nintendo operates on a rigid and extended schedule that doesn't allow them to adapt to the market for years.

Edit - Another example is Mario Dance Dance Revolution. Nintendo partnered with Konami and released Mario Dance Dance Revolution at the end of Gamecube's life and well after DDR lost popularity. Nintendo missed the boat.

 

[thepotatoman]

Yeah, outside of Japan. Last year the Vita was dead and soon to be dropped by retailers in Japan as well, according to the regulars in Media Create threads.

I don't know if you follow Japanese sales, so, for the history lesson: last year, the Vita had just had four of its five lowest weeks ever in the lead-up to the holiday season. Sony's first-party output was completely irrelevant, third parties weren't on board, it was the lowest-selling major platform of all time, and its sole notable holiday release was a random AKB48 game it shared with the PSP and which sold much better on the PSP - despite not even selling that much. Pretty dire situation, wasn't it?

Now try saying the Vita is dead and will soon be dropped by retailers right now in this or next week's thread.

What happened is, shockingly, Sony's top people being more competent than regular gaffers. You saw a new IP do well, you saw a new IP do great, you saw multiplatform games do better on Vita than PS3, PSP or 3DS, you saw a remodel, you saw Sony announce the Vita TV and remote play and overall just Sony refocusing its Vita game development to cater to Japanese tastes.

Yeah it's not exactly what one might call a turnaround, but it's the Vita being alive and well, having a large retail presence, being a healthy platform for certain types of games, and just having a much more promising future than last year at the same point in time.

So, like I said, there's reality and there's Gaf-reality. Stuff on Gaf is dead before it's released, it's a steak with forks in it every week and it's fodder for mockery along the lines of "giga lol at the people saying 'wait for E3,' 'wait for TGS,' 'wait for its first Christmas' etc." Cooler heads saw that there were opportunities to do more with the Vita. This year with Wii U it's like Avatar's story vs. Pocahontas'. Change the names but it's the same thing.

I think the difference between Vita and Wii U are the goalposts. If we are setting the goal posts so low as to simply keep it on retailer's shelves for a full 5 years, then yes, the Wii U and the Vita could both definitely achieve that.

The reason why people treat the Wii U situation and the Vita situation so differently is that Wii U is the next in a 30 year line of systems that makes up about 1/2 of Nintendo's entire business. Vita is next in line to a single PSP system that is just one tiny portion of Sony's entire business of electronics including TVs and computers and phones and everything else.

It kind of makes sense for Sony to just reposition it as a PS4 accessory or as a Apple TV that happens to play games because they can just milk a small profit out of Vita as long as it still makes sense and then never release another dedicated handheld game platform ever again.

On the other hand Nintendo has basically half the entire company riding on the Wii U and they can't just position it as a 3DS accessory and call it a day in order to save it.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'll tell you how many people are online in each major PS4 game. Give me a min.

where do I look to see it in BF?

 

[theprodigy]

I'll tell you how many people are online in each major PS4 game. Give me a min.

PS4+BF4 COD concurrent players vs W101+Sonic+Game and Wario combined LTDs

 

[Y2Kev]

okay nevermind i dont know how to find any of these #s lol

 

[ascii42]

okay nevermind i dont know how to find any of these #s lol

Road posted the BF4 Stats page, which shows current player on each system.

 

[Freezie KO]

that is definitely a big part of it, but another thing is that they stopped making games for that audience. it's like if activision stopped making call of duty for 3-4 years. or, well, basically what happened to the medal of honor series. they lost the fanbase because they stopped making games that appealed to them. and beyond simply making sequels to wii play, wii party, wii fit, and wii sports, they stopped making new things. the new things were what that audience were really drawn to, and the sequels kept some level of interest. funny- you'd think they would have made wii dance at some point in 2010 or even 2011, but they never did.

With Wii, they abandoned every audience for the last two years, not just the casual crowd.

With Wii U, half their output has been for that audience. Nintendo Land was at launch. NSMBU ostensibly appeals to the more casual Wii crowd. Game and Wario followed. And now we get Wii Party, Wii Fit, and Wii Sports. Even with Nintendo creating new mini-game collections and casual fare, that crowd just doesn't care. And Nintendo can't figure out how to make games to make them care.

And who can blame them? Angry Birds is more fun than 9/10 games in Wii Play. Words With Friends is more fun than Wii Party.

on top of that, there's the issue of the wii u itself being a thing that does not grab anyone's imaginations. owners like it in practice, but generally don't get the whole idea about it until after they've plunked down $300.

Iwata says "owners like it" a lot, but without impartial surveys or data, I'd be really hesitant to agree. It's a disaster of a console in terms of software support. It's been a year since launch, and I own a total of one first-party game and three games total.

 

[cvxfreak]

So just to double check, Just Dance 2014 sold better on Wii U than Wii? And Sonic sold better on Wii U than 3DS?

Nope; there is no way JD2014 sold more on PS3 than the Nintendo systems. It's always been the worst selling version in NA.

 

[Aquamarine]

Never mind.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Yeah, outside of Japan. Last year the Vita was dead and soon to be dropped by retailers in Japan as well, according to the regulars in Media Create threads.

I don't know if you follow Japanese sales, so, for the history lesson: last year, the Vita had just had four of its five lowest weeks ever in the lead-up to the holiday season. Sony's first-party output was completely irrelevant, third parties weren't on board, it was the lowest-selling major platform of all time, and its sole notable holiday release was a random AKB48 game it shared with the PSP and which sold much better on the PSP - despite not even selling that much. Pretty dire situation, wasn't it?

Now try saying the Vita is dead and will soon be dropped by retailers right now in this or next week's thread.

What happened is, shockingly, Sony's top people being more competent than regular gaffers. You saw a new IP do well, you saw a new IP do great, you saw multiplatform games do better on Vita than PS3, PSP or 3DS, you saw a remodel, you saw Sony announce the Vita TV and remote play and overall just Sony refocusing its Vita game development to cater to Japanese tastes.

Yeah it's not exactly what one might call a turnaround, but it's the Vita being alive and well, having a large retail presence, being a healthy platform for certain types of games, and just having a much more promising future than last year at the same point in time.

So, like I said, there's reality and there's Gaf-reality. Stuff on Gaf is dead before it's released, it's a steak with forks in it every week and it's fodder for mockery along the lines of "giga lol at the people saying 'wait for E3,' 'wait for TGS,' 'wait for its first Christmas' etc." Cooler heads saw that there were opportunities to do more with the Vita. This year with Wii U it's like Avatar's story vs. Pocahontas'. Change the names but it's the same thing.

It was one guy who has an obvious agenda. He kept saying that the Vita will be cancelled.

 

[michaelius]

What was biggest first month of any console in NPD ?

With PS4 >1000k in NA already and Black Friday still ahead are we looking for like 1200-1500k PS4 november ?

 

[allan-bh]

It's possible to have something more specific than sub 30k for Vita?

 

[ambientmystic]

Yeah call me crazy but PS4 could have million opening month if there is just stock for it. After just one day there is at random hour 55k players playing two games (not to mention other games like KZ where we don't have stats) so launch day must have been something like 400k at least.

Well, well, well, look who's psychic lol.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

What was biggest first month of any console in NPD ?

With PS4 >1000k in NA already and Black Friday still ahead are we looking for like 1200-1500k PS4 november ?

Well I did say the opening month would be record-breaking, I just didn't think the record would be broken in 24hrs. In the other thread, someone said the previous launch month record was 880k for the GBA. The PS4 at this rate will surpass the Wii U NA LTD by Black Friday. Insane. The head start provided zero cushion.

People are throwing their PS360s out the window in droves, so much for a slow transition due to cross-gen gaming.

 

[Aquamarine]

It's possible to have something more specific than sub 30k for Vita?

Creamsugar usually chooses numbers for a reason.

For example, he said PS3 was 100K < PS3 < 120K and PS3 ended up being nearly 120K.

He said Wii U was 50K < Wii U < 60K and Wii U ended up being slightly more than 50K.


So when Creamsugar says Vita is < 30K, you know it can't be THAT much lower than 30K, right?

What was biggest first month of any console in NPD ?

With PS4 >1000k in NA already and Black Friday still ahead are we looking for like 1200-1500k PS4 november ?

GBA was the biggest first month of any console in recent memory, and that didn't even hit 900K its first month.

Then again, unlike other Sony consoles (PS2 + PS3), PS4 doesn't seem to have the same kind of launch supply problems. So we may get a historically large sell-through first month.

 

[jvm]

I do not believe that the Pokémon figure includes digital. Did the worldwide figure of 4 million include digital?

 

[Anth0ny]

I think I predicted somewhere that they would sell more PS4s by the end of the year than Wii Us since it was released... Hmmmmmm

 

[Father_Brain]

It's amusing to see people referring to my posts about Vita without mentioning me by name. Hey, I'm not Nostradamus.

It's clear for the past few months that I was wrong about the platform being discontinued outright by the end of the current FY, but the fact remains that it's all but dead outside Japan. There's zero commercially relevant software announced for 2014 (the one rumored Western-targeted exclusive, Infamous, won't sell any better than similar spinoffs), its retail shelf space is dwindling, and Sony will have a very hard time getting Western retailers to stock even modest quantities of Vita 2000 or Vita TV.

Even as far as Japan is concerned - and getting back to the subject of Wii U - there hasn't been any seismic shift in third-party support for the platform, just more support from the publishers that were still on board before sales improved: Sega, NB, TK, and the various niche publishers. SE, Konami, and Capcom are still completely or almost completely MIA. Wii U, on the other hand, is starting from a position of near-nonexistent third-party support, so it's really even more fucked.

 

[jvm]

At this point, I'd favor a worldwide relaunch of the PSV as a $100 PS4 accessory, starting at E3 2014. Or relabel the PSV-TV as a PS4-home-game-streaming device. *shrug*

 

[Daingurse]

At this point, I'd favor a worldwide relaunch of the PSV as a $100 PS4 accessory, starting at E3 2014. Or relabel the PSV-TV as a PS4-home-game-streaming device. *shrug*

It really hurts me that this is the most viable path, but it is.

 

[metalslimer]

It's amusing to see people referring to my posts about Vita without mentioning me by name. Hey, I'm not Nostradamus.

It's clear for the past few months that I was wrong about the platform being discontinued outright by the end of the current FY, but the fact remains that it's all but dead outside Japan. There's zero commercially relevant software announced for 2014 (the one rumored Western-targeted exclusive, Infamous, won't sell any better than similar spinoffs), its retail shelf space is dwindling, and Sony will have a very hard time getting Western retailers to stock even modest quantities of Vita 2000 or Vita TV.

Even as far as Japan is concerned - and getting back to the subject of Wii U - there hasn't been any seismic shift in third-party support for the platform, just more support from the publishers that were still on board before sales improved: Sega, NB, TK, and the various niche publishers. SE, Konami, and Capcom are still completely or almost completely MIA. Wii U, on the other hand, is starting from a position of near-nonexistent third-party support, so it's really even more fucked.

I'm still not convinced that it essentially won't be dead as a standalone system after this holiday when it sell horrendously in the west, but Sony surprised me and took the logical solution and are turning it into a PS4 accessory.

 

[allan-bh]

So when Creamsugar says Vita is < 30K, you know it can't be THAT much lower than 30K, right?

Right, I just like to know the more precise number possible because I like to track that, but thanks.

 

[FTF]

Yeah call me crazy but PS4 could have million opening month if there is just stock for it. After just one day there is at random hour 55k players playing two games (not to mention other games like KZ where we don't have stats) so launch day must have been something like 400k at least.

You sir, are most certainly not crazy.

 

[speculawyer]

About the only thing Nintendo did right with Wii U was having a good supply of consoles at launch. Unfortunately, it's the good supply of consoles that revealed quite early just how much trouble the console was in, as it wasn't long into December that it was obvious that the demand just wasn't there.

I was in Fry's Electronics on Black Friday last year and there were a couple WiiU's on the shelf. It was then that I knew the WiiU may be in trouble. I posted the fact that they were sitting there are the shelf on Black Friday and my suspicion that the WiiU was in trouble . . . and got flamed mercilessly by Nintendo fans. But sadly, my suspicions were confirmed.

 

[Refreshment.01]

I think I predicted somewhere that they would sell more PS4s by the end of the year than Wii Us since it was released... Hmmmmmm

That's not really hard to predict or far fetched. The only obstacle for something like that not to happen is related to supplies. Im really surprised Sony had as much system as they did for the first day.

 

[suaveric]

The first sign for me that Wii U was in trouble was when Best Buy ran a deal last December that gave away a free copy of Nintendoland with a Basic Wii U. Giving the signature game away for free, less than a month after the system's release, is not a good sign. I knew then at the very least that the basic model was selling like shit.

 

[opticalmace]

I was in Fry's Electronics on Black Friday last year and there were a couple WiiU's on the shelf. It was then that I knew the WiiU may be in trouble. I posted the fact that they were sitting there are the shelf on Black Friday and my suspicion that the WiiU was in trouble . . . and got flamed mercilessly by Nintendo fans. But sadly, my suspicions were confirmed.

It would be pretty cool if you could find that post. I'd like to read it. Might be a PITA though.

 

[Refreshment.01]

It would be pretty cool if you could find that post. I'd like to read it. Might be a PITA though.

Not only stuff like that. With the Wii U lukewarm reception there were many Umans declaring that the same will happen with the PS4. The interpretation of Wii U sales was a sign of collapsin market. That reson kept popping up in every single Wii U related thread for months.

It would be amusing to have a thread dedicated to compile such posts. Too bad i never made notes of "crazy off the wall" stuff like that XD

 

[KillerMan91]

Well, well, well, look who's psychic lol.

You sir, are most certainly not crazy.

Damn =D. Not to mention that it will be actually way over a million....

 

[suaveric]

Not only stuff like that. With the Wii U lukewarm reception there were many Umans declaring that the same will happen with the PS4. The interpretation of Wii U sales was a sign of collapsin market. That reson kept popping up in every single Wii U related thread for months.

It would be amusing to have a thread dedicated to compile such posts. Too bad i never made notes of "crazy off the wall" stuff like that XD

I think it's a bit early for that yet. I'd give the market until the spring before we'll know how things look like they're shaking out long term.

 

[Tripon]

I think it's a bit early for that yet. I'd give the market until the spring before we'll know how things look like they're shaking out long term.

Really, if Mario Kart can't sell the system, then we know for sure the Wii U can't be saved. But I don't know how anybody can be 'sure' without THE known system seller game being released first.

Its like saying the XBox One is already dead because Halo isn't out yet.

 

[Refreshment.01]

I think it's a bit early for that yet. I'd give the market until the spring before we'll know how things look like they're shaking out long term.

Im not claiming otherwise suaveric, my posts unless i say otherwise, are not meant to be absolute statements.

What we got here is a more expensive console that easily outsold the Wii U launch window in 1 day, proving what a lot of Nintendo apolgysts were saying at the time was wrong.

If the X1 managed to outsell the Wii U (hehehe) at 500 dollars, then the crazy Umans just wronged harder XD

Edit: Maybe (MAYBE) the moral of the story here is that if you price yourself out of mass market at least go up a bit more enough to future proof your console better.

I've never heard "Umans" before... probably not a good idea, comes off as really fanboyish.

Feel free to label me in a camp... if you can. XD

Umans is a despective term used for the crazy irrational Wii U fanatic. If the hat suits then...

 

[opticalmace]

Im not claiming otherwise suaveric, my posts unless i say otherwise, are not meant to be absolute statements.

What we got here is a more expensive console that easily outsold the Wii U launch window in 1 day, proving what a lot of Nintendo apolgysts were saying at the time was wrong.

If the X1 managed to outsell the Wii U (hehehe) at 500 dollars, then the crazy Umans just wronged harder XD

I've never heard "Umans" before... probably not a good idea, comes off as really fanboyish.

 

[jvm]

It would be pretty cool if you could find that post. I'd like to read it. Might be a PITA though.

Google is magic:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=44693901&postcount=337

 

[opticalmace]

Google is magic:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=44693901&postcount=337

You're a wizard, Harry! Thanks.

 

[Yanikun]

Really, if Mario Kart can't sell the system, then we know for sure the Wii U can't be saved. But I don't know how anybody can be 'sure' without THE known system seller game being released first.

Disagree. One game, or even a handful of games, don't save systems. If it were that simple, Iwata would have already saved the Wii U, and would have set the 3DS on fire in the West. I think, in the case of the Wii U, its performance will be a slow burn. You can never pinpoint one event and say "that's when __ was saved." It's an accumulation of appealing software and clever actions that can do it. Assuming MK8 releases around April 2014, that's too early for the Wii U to really be able to change course.

Luckily most of Nintendo's first-party games are never done selling, whereas on most other systems an underwhelming title launch is a wasted bullet.

 

[suaveric]

Really, if Mario Kart can't sell the system, then we know for sure the Wii U can't be saved. But I don't know how anybody can be 'sure' without THE known system seller game being released first.

Its like saying the XBox One is already dead because Halo isn't out yet.

I was referring to his comments that the Wii U bombing meant the whole console market was in trouble. That is still TBD.

As for the Wii U itself, I think it's past the point of no return now. There's pretty much no way it's coming back from where it is now even with Mario Kart 8. And I say that as a total Nintendo fanboy.

 

[metalslimer]

Disagree. One game, or even a handful of games, don't save systems. If it were that simple, Iwata would have already saved the Wii U, and would have set the 3DS on fire in the West. I think, in the case of the Wii U, its performance will be a slow burn. You can never pinpoint one event and say "that's when __ was saved." It's an accumulation of appealing software and clever actions that can do it. Assuming MK8 releases around April 2014, that's too early for the Wii U to really be able to change course.

Luckily most of Nintendo's first-party games are never done selling, whereas on most other systems an underwhelming title launch is a wasted bullet.

Yeah we can't ever say if the Wii U is saved. Nintendo might release a killer app in 2020

 

[Yanikun]

Yeah we can't ever say if the Wii U is saved. Nintendo might release a killer app in 2020

No, I just agree with Michael Pachman:

Patience is fine, and I’m sure Wii U sales will pick up when more software is released. I’d say we measure the success of the console after its third holiday. Sales as of the end of 2014 are probably a pretty good indicator of whether the console will succeed or fail.

 

[donny2112]

GameCube saw a substantial uptick when it went to $99 (at its third holiday), and then it died again thereafter. Wii U might see something similar, if Nintendo ever drops the GamePad as that's the only way they could get the system down to $150 or below. With PS4's massive successful start, we may be seeing the return of a PS2 generation of dominance. Microsoft's $100 difference might just be as damaging to its prospects as PS3's $599 was, but without the fallback of continental Europe and Japan to prop it up.

 

[Magicpaint]

GameCube saw a substantial uptick when it went to $99 (at its third holiday), and then it died again thereafter. Wii U might see something similar, if Nintendo ever drops the GamePad as that's the only way they could get the system down to $150 or below. With PS4's massive successful start, we may be seeing the return of a PS2 generation of dominance. Microsoft's $100 difference might just be as damaging to its prospects as PS3's $599 was, but without the fallback of continental Europe and Japan to prop it up.

I agree.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Disagree. One game, or even a handful of games, don't save systems. If it were that simple, Iwata would have already saved the Wii U, and would have set the 3DS on fire in the West. I think, in the case of the Wii U, its performance will be a slow burn. You can never pinpoint one event and say "that's when __ was saved." It's an accumulation of appealing software and clever actions that can do it. Assuming MK8 releases around April 2014, that's too early for the Wii U to really be able to change course.

Luckily most of Nintendo's first-party games are never done selling, whereas on most other systems an underwhelming title launch is a wasted bullet.

Wii U is not going to miraculously sell better than the Gamecube. Gamecube had quite a few great Nintendo titles, better third party support and it languished.

 

[Kurosori]

Wii U is not going to miraculously sell better than the Gamecube. Gamecube had quite a few great Nintendo titles, better third party support and it languished.

The latest Nintendo consoles showed us that few key titles can reverse the destiny of the console (DS and 3DS). It's too early to declare the WiiU already dead or it'll do sub-GameCube numbers in LTD.

 

[metalslimer]

The latest Nintendo consoles showed us that few key titles can reverse the destiny of the console (DS and 3DS). It's too early to declare the WiiU already dead or it'll do sub-GameCube numbers in LTD.

Those are not Nintendo consoles. The DS was 130-150 dollars and the 3DS got a massive pricecut. I would have thought the Wii U's fortunes could have changed to go above Gamecube numbers if they had a huge pricecut as well, but Nintendo is still losing money on Wii U. They won't be at 199 for a long time and the PS4 and Xbox One will take all the mindshare away from Wii U. This is ignoring the fact that Wii U is performing worse than any console in recent memory. Even if the Wii U has a massive turnaround it will just take that to get on track with the Gamecube LTD. The system is also dead in Europe, and there seems to be little coming back when major retailers have abadoned it, so WIi U will mainly be a two territory console.

 

[Aquamarine]

The latest Nintendo consoles showed us that few key titles can reverse the destiny of the console (DS and 3DS). It's too early to declare the WiiU already dead or it'll do sub-GameCube numbers in LTD.

That's pretty much Iwata's argument on the underperformance of the Wii U's sales.

 

[Insaniac]

Damn. I like the WiiU, and I'm going to enjoy the exclusive games that come out for it. But I think we can all shed a tear for the beast. It's gonna be Nintendo's Saturn. Actually, I think the Saturn did pretty well in Japan for a while, so it's probably not even going to be that. We'll see what happens after Mario.

Honestly, its hard for me to make a judgement call until the majority of Nintendo's major IPs are out for it. Lets face it, as of now, Nintendo consoles are desired mostly for their first party IPs. Wii was great in that it had Twilight Princess on release, which was pretty much the main reason i got it launch day. Wii U is still waiting on Mario Kart (a big game for the so called "casual market" and smash bros. Zelda has yet to be completely unveiled, but that is another big IP, and I feel we can expect a Metroid at some point in the consoles lifetime.