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[shinra-bansho]

Shadowfall will be the 3rd best selling FPS of the PS4's first 6 months, maybe in the top 5 after the first year.

After the first year there will have been two CODs, Destiny and possibly two Battlefields, I can't remember if that last is annualized now.

But I'm talking about the initial launch period.

For an analogous example, Forza will sell well at launch and likely be the best selling racer on the XB1 at launch, but it will be outsold by NFS games long term, probably The Crew eventually as well.

These other brands are much bigger than these exclusive launch brands, but launch sees buyers consolidate around certain showpiece titles.

 

[DragonSworne]

well earlier in the thread it was said it's not in the top 50

so

Really makes you wonder why Nintendo bothered with Wonderful 101.

 

[Massa]

Price drop and Killzone gone. I guess Tearaway and Vita TV are the two remaining spots for the holdout Vita Turnaround True Believers to move the goalposts.

Not sure who you're talking to, do we even have Vita numbers yet?

In any case there's no turn around, it will continue to do numbers like these at retail and the best selling software on the platform will continue to be small downloadable games.

 

[Aquamarine]

Do we have any past GTA launch month numbers besides GTA IV?

Also, fun with excel:

*used 93K.

GTA III (PS2) - 270K (October 2001)

GTA Vice City (PS2) - 1.41 million (October 2002)

GTA San Andreas (PS2) - 2.05 million (October 2004)

GTA IV (360) - 1.85 million (April 2008)
GTA IV (PS3) - 1.00 million (April 2008)

 

[Hidden One]

@shinra-bansho Battlefield doesn't release every year.

 

[Road]

Most of the sales will likely be from the bundle. But the bundle includes a digital copy, while MGS4 was probably physical, so I'm not sure NPD would track that at all.

NPD tracks bundles as hardware. Physical or download, they don't ever include bundled games in the software report.

Anyone with a subscription can just see how many WWHD bundles were sold and assume those as sales of the download version.

 

[AniHawk]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.

 

[UNCMark]

Ah, I've found it amusing, after following the industry this year (compared to my prior stance as a casual gamer rather than an enthuthiast), how these nonsentient products get characterized (as opposed to, say, users of Sony clock radios saying that Sony Dream Machine clock radios "dominate" over other clock radios). That's not a criticism, just a lighthearted observation about the participants in this industry Sure, what we mean to say is "more people will purchase this product than will purchase the other product" and the number of people making that purchase equates to the product itself taking action against another product. Yet it's the consumer that collectively takes actions rather than a product taking an action. So more people are likely to purchase Xbox One's and PlayStation 4's and PlayStation 3's and Xbox 360's (and 3DS's) than WiiU's, perhaps, is what's really going on

This is the game's business. If the masses aren't buying you at a rate commensurate with the competition, and on top of that you've differentiated your hardware from the others in such a way as to be counter-productive to develop for, you're in trouble. A customer voting with their dollar for PS4 or Xbox One is actually voting against the Wii U in the mind of many publishers. Why else do you think so many publishers have distanced themselves from the Wii U? Why do you think so many moved towards the 360 7 years ago when it became clear that the masses in the US were choosing Microsoft over Sony?

 

[freezamite]

Just one thing to point:
If the 200% increase of the WiiU sales is based on the weekly sales (I think in past months that was how it was counted) then sales for September would be higher than 100K, wouldn't they?

 

[pieatorium]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.

discostu.jpg

 

[ascii42]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.

Especially if the PS4's sales trend continues as well. It'll never sell any.

 

[Miles X]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.

That's er ... some projecting there, sales don't work that way they continue to triple month over month. Blatantly isn't getting 2.4m in December 0_o

Just one thing to point:
If the 200% increase of the WiiU sales is based on the weekly sales (I think in past months that was how it was counted) then sales for September would be higher than 100K, wouldn't they?

WiiU was 31k in August.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Really makes you wonder why Nintendo bothered with Wonderful 101.

Well I doubt they thought the wiiu would tank as much as it did when they green lit the project...

But yea it's risky given Platinum game track record but having them on board let's them attract a different user base of gamers so I'm guessing that's what they were thinking

From a gamer point of view I hope games like w101, Puppetteer keep getting made. But sadly as Yoshida said mid-sized gaming projects will go down in numbers next gen, at least on the home consoles

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

@shinra-bansho Battlefield doesn't release every year.

Since the last Medal of Honor tanked we'll see. Could be why DICE were talking about it not being the end of Bad Company.

 

[The Mana Legend]

Really makes you wonder why Nintendo bothered with Wonderful 101.

To fill out the library. All three manufacturers shit out lots of games they never even plan to market just so they can say "they have it." Sony does this constantly. They lose a shit ton of money on the games themselves, but they hope to make it back from people buying consoles for their extensive libraries and shit.

 

[Brashnir]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.

At this rate, they'll be selling 5 billion consoles a month by July.

 

[DragonSworne]

Well I doubt they thought the wiiu would tank as much as it did when they green lit the project...

But yea it's risky given Platinum game track record but having them on board let's them attract a different user base of gamers so I'm guessing that's what they were thinking

From a gamer point of view I hope games like w101, Puppetteer keep getting made. But sadly as Yoshida said mid-sized gaming projects will go down in numbers next gen, at least on the home consoles

The smarter decision would have been to release Bayonetta 2 as soon as possible, and not focus on a title that alienates larges parts of multiple markets.

 

[erawsd]

With digital sales being pushed even harder next gen, I wonder how relevant NPD software data will be going forward. For instance, GTA broke the PSN digital sales record, and none of that gets counted into these figures.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

After the first year there will have been two CODs, Destiny and possibly two Battlefields, I can't remember if that last is annualized now.

But I'm talking about the initial launch period.

I'm just saying don't expect it to outsell CoD: Ghost or BF: 4 at launch, that's just setting the bar way too high for the franchise compared to how it has performed in the past. I don't expect it to outdo Destiny either considering the money being pushed into its ad campaign. If Sony ships 5.5-6 million PS4s by March, I'd expect half of those to be CoD/BF players at least.

As a relevant example, Perfect Dark Zero was handily outsold by Call of Duty 2 at 360 launch despite being exclusive, and COD2 being available on PC.

 

[shinra-bansho]

GTA III (PS2) - 270K (October 2001)

GTA Vice City (PS2) - 1.41 million (October 2002)

GTA San Andreas (PS2) - 2.05 million (October 2004)

GTA IV (360) - 1.85 million (April 2008)
GTA IV (PS3) - 1.00 million (April 2008)

Hmm so IV is the best selling before this, which puts GTA V at at least 2.85M but likely much more.

 

[pieatorium]

Since the last Medal of Honor tanked we'll see. Could be why DICE were talking about it not being the end of Bad Company.

Battlefront will be the new moh to alternate with Battlefield probably?

 

[Freki]

That's er ... some projecting there, sales don't work that way they continue to triple month over month. Blatantly isn't getting 2.4m in December 0_o

I'm positive AniHawk knows that ;-)

 

[Mory Dunz]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.

Pretty sure he's joking guys.

 

[allan-bh]

GTA III (PS2) - 270K (October 2001)

I missed this number. That's good to know.

Any chance you have Halo: CE first month (November 2001) ?

 

[Father_Brain]

still waiting on confirmation of vita discontinuation by may 2014 or even end of 2014 if we want to move goal posts

Hey, you win some, you lose some.

 

[B.O.O.M]

The smarter decision would have been to release Bayonetta 2 as soon as possible, and not focus on a title that alienates larges parts of multiple markets.

Yeah I agree. their priorities weren't in the right place for sure. I wonder how big the budget for Bayo2 is since we know W101 had a bigger budget than Bayo1

 

[Miles X]

I'm positive AniHawk knows that ;-)

Never really know with people these days :\ I'll take your word for it though lol

 

[CosmicQueso]

3x is the right multiplier for the Wii U comment.

Based on unit sales, hard to see TW101 having had any meaningful impact on HW.

 

[Pain]

It will be interesting if PS3 can maintain its position for October and the holidays. Are the GTA V bundles limited?

I say its unlikely. 360 will have a huge price advantage around Black Friday.

 

[Gator86]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.

No way this doesn't happen.

 

[Aquamarine]

3x is the right multiplier for the Wii U comment.

Based on unit sales, hard to see TW101 having had any meaningful impact on HW.

>93K confirmed for Wii U sales then.

 

[Yawnier]

At this rate, they'll be selling 5 billion consoles a month by July.

 

[StoopKid]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.

 

[Miles X]

It will be interesting if PS3 can maintain its position for October and the holidays. Are the GTA V bundles limited?

I say its unlikely. 360 will have a huge price advantage around Black Friday.

Nah, especially if it's by 20k PS3 won.

For some reason 360 propels in the holidays and PS3 really lags (In the US, not WW obvs)

Last Dec was 1.4m vs 650k, whereas the Sep before that it was 270k vs 200k.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

And Wonderful 101 sales are...

creamsguar pls

 

[chadboban]

He's joking dude. Lighten up.

 

[Pain]

Am I the only one who noticed how horrible console sales are? I mean they're being outsold by a freakin' dedicated handheld! Next-gen can't come soon enough. Industry needs a shot in the arm.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

And Wonderful 101 sales are...

creamsguar pls

Not in the top 50 according to CosmicQueso.

 

[LOCK]

Great month for everyone really. Except W101

 

[UNCMark]

It will be interesting if PS3 can maintain its position for October and the holidays. Are the GTA V bundles limited?

I say its unlikely. 360 will have a huge price advantage around Black Friday.

It won't maintain it. The GTA bundle is already falling fast down the Amazon charts. It will come down to the holiday bundles now, where pretty much every year MS dominates. PS4vs Xbox One is a totally different (and more interesting imo) story.

 

[Road]

Hmm so IV is the best selling before this, which puts GTA V at at least 2.85M but likely much more.

It's over $377 million in revenue, so even assuming an ASP of $70, unit sales are over 5.38 million.

 

[Brashnir]

Not in the top 50 according to CosmicQueso.

Wonderful 101 isn't just the name of the game, but also its ranking on the charts.

 

[Aquamarine]

I missed this number. That's good to know.

Any chance you have Halo: CE first month (November 2001) ?

357K (November 2001).

 

[see5harp]

Am I the only one who noticed how horrible console sales are? I mean they're being outsold by a freakin' dedicated handheld! Next-gen can't come soon enough. Industry needs a shot in the arm.

For the last year that's all people have been saying. I think the crazy switch has been a distraction. Console sales, including the 3DS are terrible.

 

[shandy706]

As said in the other thread: references just to worldwide sales and to YTD US sales so far, as well as no sales number for the month = PS3 outsold 360 this time.

When was the last time that happened?

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm just saying don't expect it to outsell CoD: Ghost or BF: 4 at launch, that's just setting the bar way too high for the franchise compared to how it has performed in the past. I don't expect it to outdo Destiny either considering the money being pushed into its ad campaign. If Sony ships 5.5-6 million PS4s by March, I'd expect half of those to be CoD/BF players at least.

It's the big budget exclusive showpiece.

I'm not saying it will happen, but I do expect a high attach rate regardless and I don't think that Killzone 3's lacklustre sales can be translated simply.

Again, for an analogous software situation Forza is the flagship XB1 launch title, but doesn't have the best sales pedigree and as a brand NFS is stronger. But I can see Forza outselling NFS.

Early adopters should be able to drive a tie ratio of more than 1-2; the prices are better than the start of the last cycle. The 360 had a tie ratio of 4 at launch.

 

[Immaculate]

W101 didn't even make it to the top 50?

fuck

 

[chadboban]

Great month for everyone really. Except W101

And Puppeteer... and Rayman...

 

[I Stalk Alone]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.

 

[kurbaan]

what's crazy is that if this keeps happening, the wii u will have 270k in october, 810k in november, and 2.4m in november. nintendo won't be able to keep up with demand if these trends continue.

i wonder if sony will be forced to bundle the vita with the ps4 just to stay relevant.