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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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J

Jackson50

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Those post debate polls don't fully take the debate into account though, so you can't really use them to measure its impact...

Next week there will be plenty of polls measuring exactly how the debate played out.
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I know you realize how difficult the next month will be if you wish to troll effectively. This next month will require your utmost creativity and effort. I hope you're prepared.
sillymonkey321 said:
now it's just a borderline crazy McCain on cnbc. Sometimes he has a good moment but far too often it's just an old man whining. Iran thinks we aren't serious because we haven't told Israel to attack them. Fine, whatever.
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I'm occasionally reminded that, despite my occasional disapproval of Obama's foreign policy, his equanimity is comforting. He's not heedless but circumspect. The Republican alternatives, McCain then Romney, are positively frightening.
Diablos said:
Okay then, fair enough.

Still, Obama barfing on himself for 90 minutes straight in the most watched Presidential debate since 1992 is hard to ignore. Perhaps (and hopefully) it's becoming more of a personal thing for me more than anything else. It was so easy for Obama to just debunk all his crap and he instead performed so very poorly. Do you think Gore still did worse? He sure sighed and grunted a lot more than Obama, but overall, I think Obama's head was almost totally out of the game. He struggled to make simple talking points.

If he simply would have showed up, these UE/job numbers combined with a respectable debate performance on his behalf would have likely put this thing away. Now we have dat narrative, etc.
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Totally. For the reasons I've specified the past few weeks, I don't expect it to substantially shift public opinion. But I agree his desultory performance is inexcusable. Of course, you always want to win.

Gore's problem was more cumulative in that he performed poorly over the course of the three debates. Oddly, he actually won a debate according to snap polling, but the stigma developed regardless because his behavior was so annoying. I think the cumulative performance of Gore will prove worse than Obama's cumulative performance. I don't expect a repeat of Wednesday night.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Gotta love teh librul media. It's amazing how easily non-political stories like this can quickly be made "controversial" by the unsubstantiated complaints of a few people on the far right. Obama speaking to school children before the start of the semester? Controversy! White House acknowledgement of a Muslim or Indian holiday? Unprecedented! US Census run by the administration? Communism!

Sure the economy is political, but the fucking BLS is not. How hard is it to say "administrations do not influence the BLS, and it is a completely separate entity from the White House. Instead we get shit like this:
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/allen-west-president-obama-is-absolutely-hiding-real
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Z_Y said:
Apologies if this has already been posted. My sister lives in Pittsburgh and she just sent me this link...

http://www.votespa.com/portal/server.pt/community/home/13514

Check out the statement under the Voter ID headline.



I would love for somebody to respond when asked for their ID with: "I'm asking you to kiss my ass, but you're not required to do so."
Click to expand...

Dear god if I lived in PA that is exactly what I'd say. Stupid NY is too reasonable...
 
T

Tim-E

Member
XenodudeX said:
I think jobs numbers do effect polling numbers. It gets people thinking that maybe the economy is getting better. Remember the jobs reports around the spring? Obama's poll numbers went up because people were thinking the US was entering a recovery.
Click to expand...

That, and the Obama administration seemed to have an executive order or new Romney attack lined up to take over the headlines when a bad report came out during the summer.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Hobbestetrician said:
That's the best map they could come up with?
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Switch out Nevada for Iowa and give NH and MI to Obama (states where he leads handily) and you get this:

fivethirtyeight-1004-pd2_1-blog480.jpg


All states where Obama's advantage in the polls is more than five points, at least as of yesterday. 275-260.
 
A

Allard

Member
B-Dubs said:
Please tell me he is going to unskew the unemployment data.
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I got to laugh at the unskew site and almost hope its actually a liberal blogger being a troll. It goes so well with the old meme/stereotype 'reality has a liberal bias'. In this case the site is unskewing reality's bias lol.
 
B

Blergmeister

Member
Cheebo said:
Monthly jobs numbers never impact polls. Look at how much the bad numbers last month hurt Obama. Not at all. The jobs numbers are baked into the results already, those who found employment would change who they vote for when they got employment, not when a report comes out at the end of the month.
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I addressed this in my post.
I do agree that the actual numbers are meaningless (from an election standpoint) due to how middling they are but I pointed out why I believe the results of this months job numbers may be more impactful than past ones. Mostly the psychological barriers that have been crossed with both sub-8% unemployment as well as the unemployment rate being less than when Obama took office.

Blergmeister said:
Also, I want to point out that Americans don't care about the job numbers this month. What matters is that the psychological milestones that were hit, sub 8% and 7.8% is less than when Obama took office. All this with none of the negative caveats (participation rate, etc.) The actual numbers are as middling as they've always been and matter as much as they have the past 6 months.
Click to expand...
 
A

adamsappel

Member
Diablos said:
Still, Obama barfing on himself for 90 minutes straight in the most watched Presidential debate since 1992 is hard to ignore. Perhaps (and hopefully) it's becoming more of a personal thing for me more than anything else. It was so easy for Obama to just debunk all his crap and he instead performed so very poorly. Do you think Gore still did worse? He sure sighed and grunted a lot more than Obama, but overall, I think Obama's head was almost totally out of the game. He struggled to make simple talking points.

If he simply would have showed up, these UE/job numbers combined with a respectable debate performance on his behalf would have likely put this thing away. Now we have dat narrative, etc.
Click to expand...

I didn't even watch the debate, but you make it seem like he shit his pants at the lectern. He didn't "win," fine. All anybody is talking about the debate is Big Bird, and it's terrible optics for Romney. Calm the fuck down and come in off the ledge.
 
R

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
Z_Y said:
Apologies if this has already been posted. My sister lives in Pittsburgh and she just sent me this link...

http://www.votespa.com/portal/server.pt/community/home/13514

Check out the statement under the Voter ID headline.



I would love for somebody to respond when asked for their ID with: "I'm asking you to kiss my ass, but you're not required to do so."
Click to expand...

Rachel Maddow covered it on her show last night. Basically, PA is pretending the voter ID law is still legal.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
adamsappel said:
I didn't even watch the debate, but you make it seem like he shit his pants at the lectern. He didn't "win," fine. All anybody is talking about the debate is Big Bird, and it's terrible optics for Romney. Calm the fuck down and come in off the ledge.
Click to expand...

Yep. Political nerds are going on about who "won," but the thing that most people are talking about and taking away from the debate is freaking Big Bird.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Tim-E said:
Yep. Political nerds are going on about who "won," but the thing that most people are talking about and taking away from the debate is freaking Big Bird.
Click to expand...

And it gave Obama a lot of ammo. Not only Big Bird, but the line that Romney had to be fact checked by his own campaign is fucking brutal if he keeps using it.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Officerrob said:
As evidence of that he's leaning on polls from WeAskAmerica and Rasmussen? Come on, that's pretty shitty trolling. He's pulling a Romney here and jumping on anything he can at this point
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I don't have Ras internals.

But WAA's party ID breakdown is shit for FL and VA. OH their breakdown is proper. But their press release for the polls is written like a right wing hack job, so dunno. Will be interesting to hear Nate's take on these polls.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Wait, why does Michigan lean red while Ohio leans blue? Michigan has produced better polling data for Obama than Ohio, a lot better in fact. That makes no fucking sense. By his standards they should both lean red.
Click to expand...

He isn't unkskewing other people's data:

Map above shows the 11 key swing states in pink for Romney and light blue for Obama while the remaining states are solid red and blue for Romney and Obama respectively.

2737 likely voters surveyed between September 24 and October 3 and it has a margin of error of 1.87 percent. All likely voters were surveyed via web-based surveys.
Click to expand...

I assume this means his stupid survey on his site.
 
A

Allard

Member
Clevinger said:
So we have birthers, graders, unskewers, and now jobbers. I want this fucking batshit insane election to be over already.
Click to expand...

Lol you think those things are going away after the election is decided? The whole reason they are even coming up is they are preparing the next load of attacks to make it look like President Obama isn't the legitimate winner so they can hate on him again after he is elected.
 
S

Souldriver

Member
Clevinger said:
So we have birthers, graders, unskewers, and now jobbers. I want this fucking batshit insane election to be over already.
Click to expand...

Given how crazy things have gotten, and that the right has no qualms anymore to scream conspiracies, you can bet that there will be a decent movement saying the elections were rigged, no matter how big or small Obama's victory may be (if/when he wins).
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Wait, why does Michigan lean red while Ohio leans blue? Michigan has produced better polling data for Obama than Ohio, a lot better in fact. That makes no fucking sense. By his standards they should both lean red.
Click to expand...
Why do they have Romney winning?

Because it makes no fucking sense.

Souldriver said:
Given how crazy things have gotten, and that the right has no qualms anymore to scream conspiracies, you can bet that there will be a decent movement saying the elections were rigged, no matter how big or small Obama's victory may be (if/when he wins).
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A small win would be proof that he rigged it - he couldn't win on his own, he needed to cheat to give him that extra little push.

A big win would be proof that he rigged it - all my neighbors in Alabama fucking hate that guy, there's no way Romney could have lost so hugely!

No Obama victory will be valid in their eyes. It's perfect - everything that goes right just proves a point, everything that goes wrong is all a part of a massive conspiracy to keep conservatives down.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I can hardly wait.. in just a few short hours on the night of November 6th, all of these deluded groups of people will see their carefully-crafted false worlds collapse under the weight of a little thing called reality.

It's going to be so damn good. A conservative co-worker today warned me about the coming civil war when Obama wins, haha!
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005?feedType=RSS
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama's lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney has narrowed to just 2 percentage points since Romney's strong performance in their first debate, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.

In more bad news for Obama, one in five voters said the Democrat's performance in the contest in Denver on Wednesday made them feel more negative about him, while almost a third said they felt more positive about Romney.

The online poll conducted from Monday to Friday showed 46 percent of likely voters backed Obama, versus 44 percent for Romney. Obama had led by 48 to 43 percent in Thursday's daily tracking poll, the first to include a day of interviews after the debate.
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It's a 5 day running average so yesterday's numbers must have been pretty bad for Obama.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
The "job truther" movement is the most bizarre manifestation of the far right's discord with reality. Reminds me of the inflation truthers.
 
M

mightynine

Member
Romney is also planning on how many people he can fire and still keep the place running, so he can sell the White House at a profit before he leaves office.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
I wonder what kind of person negative ads actually work on. I have never seen one that makes me want to change my mind. They either reinforce what I already think or I see them as false/exaggerated.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
The general tone and news coming out of this election has put a serious hurting on my brain cells and has literally decreased by IQ with the amount of stupid I have been subjected to.

It's truly, truly insulting.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
BOOM, Called this shit last month after the August report (credit to the columnist)

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=41877128&postcount=135

If that analysis is correct, the job numbers are likely to seem poor for the next two months, but to pick up with the September report on Oct. 5, and then to look impressive in the October report, which will appear on Nov. 2, four days before the election.
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Bingo. BLS numbers almost always lag behind the trend because of how they seasonally adjust. And Sept numbers will be revised up against next month. Throw in the 400k missing til February, and the UE rate is closer to 7.7%

This is why I told PD that the report itself doesn't matter. The report was underscoring the jobs recovery by a lot and now they've caught up a bit and now we see there are 1 million more people working. People feel the economic recovery independent of jobs reports.

And October will be even better than September. And people are not going to change course.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
HylianTom said:
I can hardly wait.. in just a few short hours on the night of November 6th, all of these deluded groups of people will see their carefully-crafted false worlds collapse under the weight of a little thing called reality.

It's going to be so damn good. A conservative co-worker today warned me about the coming civil war when Obama wins, haha!
Click to expand...

The upcoming race war . . .
382.gif
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
The jobless rate among people with college degrees was unchanged at 4.1 percent. But the rate among high school dropouts fell to 11.3 percent, the lowest figure for that group in nearly four years. It has declined by 1.4 percentage points over the last two months.

Similarly, the number of people who have been out of work for more than six months fell below five million for the first time since mid-2009. It peaked at 6.7 million in the spring of 2010.
Click to expand...

The long term unemployed finding work is generally the big sign that a recovery is about to really happen.

A year ago, the the establishment numbers were looking better than the household numbers. Now the reverse is true. Over the last 12 months, the household report shows an additional 2.9 million people working. Over the same span, the establishment report says 1.8 million jobs were added, although the Labor Department has already said that figure would be revised upward in due course.

Over the last 24 months, however, the two reports are virtually identical, showing an additional 3.6 million jobs and workers.
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Boom, 3 million jobs in the last year according to the Household Survey. That's 250k per month. Not great, but much better than what the payroll numbers have shown.

Also:


Actually, it should come as no surprise that Mr. Welch would think bureaucrats would willingly change numbers. That evidently used to happen routinely at G.E. As I wrote in a 2009 column quoting James Martin, a Jesuit priest who found his calling after graduating from the Wharton School and working at G.E. in the early 1980s:

“The primary task of my first job was to issue very long, monthly statistical reports,” he wrote in his book, “In Good Company: The Fast Track From the Corporate World to Poverty, Chastity and Obedience.” “The first month,” he recalled, “I informed one executive that our results were coming in low” because of losses in overseas operations.

“So what?” replied the executive. “Just reverse a few journal entries.” Corporate headquarters, he explained, would come down hard on them if they missed the numbers.

Another boss told him he was “taking those accounting courses way too seriously.”
Click to expand...
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/good-news-for-the-worst-off/

LOL
 
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