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[_Rafa_]

What news? It's down 0.5% before open.

Amazon.com 3Q Looks To Maintain Momentum
Dow Jones
October 22, 2007: 07:28 AM EST

After two consecutive quarters of blow-out earnings growth - which have fueled a 100% surge in its market value - Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) is facing high expectations for the third quarter.

The online retail giant is slated to post results for its most recent quarter after the closing bell Tuesday.

Estimates are running high. Analysts are predicting operating earnings of $108 million for the quarter, according to average estimates from Thomson Financial. That implies a growth rate of more than 170% from the $40 million in operating profits reported for the same period last year.

Amazon is expected to report earnings per share of 18 cents on revenue of $ 3.14 billion, compared to earnings of 5 cents a share on revenue of $2.31 billion last year.

Sales in the third quarter benefited from the blockbuster release of the last "Harry Potter" book, although the title is not expected to have much impact on the bottom line, as it was priced at near cost levels in order to attract readers to the store.

Analysts believe a bigger boost to earnings will come from the rise of third- party sellers over the Amazon site. Such sellers provide a source of earnings for the company without the costs involved in building and maintaining inventory levels.

"The strong revenue growth along with the improving operating margins aided by the deceleration in tech (operating expenses) and higher third party mix, have resulted in a share price for Amazon that has more than doubled year-to-date," said Robert Peck of Bear Stearns in a note to clients earlier this week.

Peck cautioned, however, that the company's improving business is already reflected in the share price.

Amazon shares have soared since the company's first-quarter report in mid- April, when the stock was trading around $45. The stock closed Friday just under the $90 mark after topping $95 the week before.

Brian Pitz of Banc of America Securities has a more bullish view. He raised his price target on the stock to $105 last week in expectation of strong earnings growth.

"We believe Amazon is at the pole position for eCommerce growth and should benefit from: 1) strong growth in high margin 3rd party sales; 2) prime and free shipping driving customer loyalty (and share of wallet); 3) prior tech and content spend bearing fruit in 2008 and beyond; and 4) incremental high- margin...." Pitz wrote in a report.

-Dan Gallagher; 415-439-6400; [email protected] [/QUOTE]

 

[_Rafa_]

...

Sure.

Here are five companies I am following and the buy target I'd like to get in at:

1. BABY - 14.80 i see the company has big resistance at your target price for a long time now, its pretty much stuck there....it could go up or down from there. But if you think that company is doing well it's ok since your surely know more than me about them.
2. GG - 29.50 it has been stuck at ~25 for 2 years... big resistance there too, dont you think 29.5 is too much ?
3. MRH - 16.52 it's stuck there too for 2 years now....You think it will go up on the long term? 2 years...its long term for me..
4. MIDD - 61.30 i think that one is pretty good
5. SNHY - 28.60 could be good too

I like all 4 companies because they have good, consistent growth rates, are in good positions in their markets, have good management and are trading low compared to their forward intrinsic values. GG is a gold play (a sector I like for the next 5 years or so).

The market does look horrible, and I believe it is possible we are already in the very beginning days of a recession (as Caterpillar said last week).

Today is going to be bleeding red it seems.

 

[koam]

Note to self: Never buy Chinese stocks. I was so painful trying to sell it.

Sandisk is recouping and they announced a new digital download service and apple tv/slingbox type device that seems promissing.

Wondering if i should buy some apple and sell it tomorrow, then buy amazon and sell it the day after.

 

[Javaman]

Looks like things are moving back up some, reversing a bit of the loss on Friday. I hope no one decided to bail at the bottom.

 

[yayaba]

Wow, ISRG and CRNT were great buys for me. CRNT finished the day 20% up.

AAPL is flying after hours. It's at 184 last I looked (my first buy in was at 108 and my average buy in is at 122!)

 

[Ether_Snake]

Yes good day, but my guess is that people still have little trust in markets, altho analysts are saying they expect more good results from the tech sector so it help. It's just that the housing issue hasn't disappeared because of that, and we've all seen our beloved shares plunge because of unrelated issues since August. You could expect a lot of people to sell tomorrow after today's rise, having returned to gains or having reduced their losses. Every strong rise after a strong fall at this point is not a recovery as far as I'm concerned, so I'm still not buying anything.

Anyway here are what I found interesting today:


Microsoft concedes defeat in EU battle

Microsoft concedes defeat in EU battleBy Andrew Bounds in Strasbourg and Laura Dixon in Brussels Monday Oct 22 2007 14:20. Microsoft finally admitted defeat in its nine-year battle with the European Commission on Monday, agreeing to allow competitors access to technology that Brussels said would create more innovation in the software market.

Energy stocks extend losses

Energy stocks made it a second-straight session loss on Monday as a 1% drop in crude-oil prices and continued profit-taking offset solid earnings from Halliburton and an upswing in the broader market.

Amazon is going up today, 1.70% + another 2.20% in after hours, earnings are going to be released tomorrow (after the market close).

Apple had great fiscal results, everyone is aware of it

Marvel rose 5.10% after Hasbro revealed better than expected fiscal results.

Nvidia rose 4.73% on no news.

Orbital Sciences went up 5.02% after it was announced that they were awarded a $38 mln contract by U.S. Navy for Coyote Sea-Skimming target vehicles but it is now down 4.78% in after hours.

Good thing I didn't buy THQ afterall a few weeks ago: THQ says soft sales, game delays prompt warnings. Down 0.13% (it was announced after the close) but down another 3.48% in after-hours.

My equities
ATVI was up 4.45% and they announced that they will release their earnings on Nov. 5th. Hopefully no bad news from other sectors to erase any good news (like last time!). IMMR, CGT, and TTWO did ok, but I'm still in the red on IMMR.

 

[lil smoke]

Wondering if i should buy some apple and sell it tomorrow, then buy amazon and sell it the day after.

heh. did you do it?

 

[koam]

heh. did you do it?

I'm completely on margin now. Wonder if i should do the same with AMZN.

Did it on VSE too.

 

[_Rafa_]

what do you mean when you say you're on margin? you lost everything?

 

[koam]

Badly worded. I can't invest anymore, my cash is all in stocks and my margin is full too.

 

[lil smoke]

I'm completely on margin now. Wonder if i should do the same with AMZN.

Did it on VSE too.

haha, unfortunately I had the exact same thing in mind with Apple, but i forgot the 3 day deposit clear rule. Apple is almost easy to take advantage of these days. I was going to buy a large amount. If I had bought yesterday, I'd be selling right now!

 

[kathode]

Apple knocked earnings out of the park, as did Netflix.

If you want to try to time the market like with AAPL, Nintendo is your best bet at the moment - Earnings due out on October 25th, and if you don't know, IT PRINTS MONEY! Get on the train now! I bought Nintendo a few days before the Wii came out at around $35, and just dumped a bunch more in this morning at $71. There's no reason this stock can't be every bit as big as AAPL.

 

[gkryhewy]

Yeah, if you think Nintendo will beat estimates again, a decent deal can be had today (~70).

 

[ArtG]

I'm in: (Price I got in at)

HTE ($26.08)
MSFT ($28.50)
MO ($69.99)
ACAS ($41.77)

ACAS is a stock I just got in today. I'm a small time investor (college student), so this just to start out investing and just to begin accumulating shares and (hopefully) some wealth. All of these guys have some solid to amazing dividend yields (HTE: 16.9%...yeah, red flag, but they're an energy trust that pays out most of their earnings out in the form of dividends and have always paid, so I think it's safe) MO at about 4.2-4.3%, ACAS at 8.8%, and then MSFT coming in at 1.5%)

Monthly contributions to one of these four stocks + the DRIP (dividend re-investments) programs should do me well. I think I'm diversified well enough for now (probably need a healthcare and telecom stock in the future, as well as maybe a bond ETF...)

I've been doing well so far, hopefully it'll keep up.

 

[_Rafa_]

i just bought 13 shares of ntdoy at 70.06. Hope it beats expectations on october 25th. Thanks koam for the reminding. I lost my chance with amazon (i predicted a 7-8% up when it was at 89$ 2 days ago, so i was right on it) cause i didn't have US cash at the time but maybe i can profit from nintendo instead.

 

[koam]

haha, unfortunately I had the exact same thing in mind with Apple, but i forgot the 3 day deposit clear rule. Apple is almost easy to take advantage of these days. I was going to buy a large amount. If I had bought yesterday, I'd be selling right now!

Are you refering to the 3 day period that it takes for a stock to settle?

Rafa: How did you miss your chance with AMZN? their earnings are tonight.

 

[_Rafa_]

Are you refering to the 3 day period that it takes for a stock to settle?

Rafa: How did you miss your chance with AMZN? their earnings are tonight.

it was 89 two days ago before th earnings previews....so now i think its reflected in the price of the stcok. At least a big part. Thats why it is 7-8% up on two days.

edit: its almost 10% up now. wow.

 

[koam]

it was 89 two days ago before th earnings previews....so now i think its reflected in the price of the stcok. At least a big part. Thats why it is 7-8% up on two days.

edit: its almost 10% up now. wow.

See! Also you can't live on IFs. I wanted to buy RIM at $68 and AAPL at $89.

I just bought 12 shares of Nintendo. I have 62 in total now.

 

[_Rafa_]

i didnt buy it cause i didnt have the cash. not cause i was doubting. But i saw it coming nonetheless. thats good sign. Anyways theres occassions each day. Nintendo should be a good one.

 

[koam]

I've lost on so many opportunities due to lack of cash. Check out my VSE. I've made so much money there because i have $20,000.

 

[_Rafa_]

yeah but VSE isnt reality. You take risk that your wouldnt take in real life..

 

[gkryhewy]

i didnt buy it cause i didnt have the cash. not cause i was doubting. But i saw it coming nonetheless. thats good sign. Anyways theres occassions each day. Nintendo should be a good one.

Are you intending to dump NTDOY after earnings, or hang onto it through Mario Galaxy / WiiFit Japan launch / Xmas?

I did increase my holdings by 12 shares as well. I'm a LITTLE nervous about earnings due to the waning Wii sales in Japan last quarter, as well as the unusually weak dollar/yen ratio relative to previous quarters, but I'm counting on North American and European Wii sales to have exceeded expectations (this quarter will include the unprecedented 400k+ July and August NPD monthlies). I'm planning on selling all of my shares either a) upon a post-earnings bump, if big enough, b) after a post-WiiFit Japanese bump, if big enough, or c) on December 24th.

 

[_Rafa_]

maybe ill sell a bit to take some profit and buy later or maybe ill keep it. Dont know yet

 

[koam]

Wondering if i should buy some apple and sell it tomorrow, then buy amazon and sell it the day after.

Anyone follow my advice? That's 10% twice in a row and more after hours tonight.

 

[kathode]

I think you can bet on Nintendo to increase through the holidays. I sold a loser I had been looking to ditch and rode a small swell of AMZN up a bit. Here's hoping the earnings are good! I don't quite have enough money in my investment account to meet the day trading requirements, so I'll have to hold a while.

 

[lil smoke]

shit, I'm so busy at my real job that i can't pay attention to what's going on! Yeah I need to replenish my account balance with TD, but I haven't had a second to do it, AND the 3 day period!

I am feeling pretty hot about AAPL right now, read: angry
GOOG was a real temptation, but I don't know if I'm willing to take risk beyond $ that is put for my savings. But then again I'm looking at an up 25.00 ! What if I had....? *%#^!

GOOG is just a monster, and everyone knows it. It takes hits and keeps chugging along. Is there a limit?

yeah, I think I'll just add more to NTDOY as well.

*back to work*

 

[koam]

AMAZON'S NET QUADRUPLES TO $80 MILLION; SHARES DOWN 5% AFTER HOURS

(I still see the earnings as being up though? I see them at over $100)

 

[Tarazet]

I have no liquid funds to put anywhere (and no margin account), or I would have jumped on AMZN as soon as the earnings report hit. That was a healthy gain.

 

[gkryhewy]

AMAZON'S NET QUADRUPLES TO $80 MILLION; SHARES DOWN 5% AFTER HOURS

(I still see the earnings as being up though? I see them at over $100)

They beat estimates by one cent on EPS and raised estimates. Maybe just a case of too much run-up in the last two days to be sustained post-earnings.

YIKES - back down to 90.xx after hours. That's a little... scary.

 

[koam]

Pre-market should be good. All tech dropped after horus today

 

[gkryhewy]

Pre-market should be good. All tech dropped after horus today

10% though? For reference, does anyone have analyst estimates for Nintendo EPS?

 

[koam]

Yeah i just noticed how badly they fell. From $100 to $92. I have no idea what will happen from here.

Getting info on NTDOY is tough cause they're OTC. I'll see if i have any docs.

This is all i have:

Nintendo Co Ltd is currently rated a Strong Buy (Source: First Call Consensus).

 Annual EPS Consensus Expectations for NTDOY 
 
 
  FY2008  FY2009  FY2010  
 
 Current Mean (Rev.)  $2.34  $2.80  $2.42   
 
 Revised  10/11/07  10/11/07  10/11/07   
 
 Previous Mean $2.31  $2.76  NA   
 
 Brokers Estimating 2  2  1   
 
 Estimate Range $2.26-$2.41  $2.60-$2.99  NM   
 
 Standard Deviation $0.11  $0.28  NA   
 
 Announcement date        
 
 Year Ago EPS $0.82 A

 

[_Rafa_]

do you know guys if its possible to see the price evolution trought the day for NTDOY ?

and wow for amzn, it lost all it earned trought the day. Bizarre.

 

[gkryhewy]

do you know guys if its possible to see the price evolution trought the day for NTDOY ?

I'm not aware of any live daily tracking, but it jumped after open to 71.xx, then back down to 69.90, then closed at ~70.35. You can see where it'll open tomorrow (relatively) by following it on the nikkei tonight (LINK).

 

[Tarazet]

do you know guys if its possible to see the price evolution trought the day for NTDOY ?

and wow for amzn, it lost all it earned trought the day. Bizarre.

Their P/E ratio is astronomically high. That surge was never going to be sustainable.

 

[koam]

I'm not aware of any live daily tracking, but it jumped after open to 71.xx, then back down to 69.90, then closed at ~70.35. You can see where it'll open tomorrow (relatively) by following it on the nikkei tonight (LINK).

That's not NTDOY, that's the Japanese one.

The only site I know of that has a decent NTDOY quote is:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=ntdoy#getQuote

For Today:
Last Sale 70.45
Change -1.15
% Change -1.606145
Daily High 70.80
Daily Low 69.75
Opening Price 69.75
Volume 84,405
Annual High 75.98
Prev Close 71.60

OUCH

AMAZON.COM INC (NasdaqGS:AMZN)

After Hours: 90.82 -10.00 (-9.92%) as of 4:33PM ET on 10/23/07

 

[gkryhewy]

That's not NTDOY, that's the Japanese one.

I know - that's why I said Nikkei. The closing Nikkei price usually closely determines the opening ADR price, though, via the calculation [(nikkei value)/8]/(current yen per USD).

 

[koam]

I know - that's why I said Nikkei. The closing Nikkei price usually closely determines the opening ADR price, though, via the calculation [(nikkei value)/8]/(current yen per USD).

Sorry, misread your last sentence. Is that really the case? I figured the formula would be something like that, but does NTDOY reflect what the nikkei one opens at?

i.e

NTDOY closing * 8 * conversion rate

 

[gkryhewy]

Sorry, misread your last sentence. Is that really the case? I figured the formula would be something like that, but does NTDOY reflect what the nikkei one opens at?

It's usually very close. If you watch pinksheets early morning, you'll see the price (or alternatively the bid or ask, depending on the direction of the swing) suddenly jump from whatever it closed at the previous day to a new number. This (I think) represents conversion to the closing nikkei value and updated exchange rate by the magical dwarf in New York who does these things.

EDIT: Oh no, the nikkei open doesn't care about the NTDOY close, but the inverse is true (NTDOY open depends on nikkei close).

 

[koam]

The company issued a wide range for its expected operating income for the fourth quarter. Amazon said operating earnings are expected to come in between $221 million and $291 million.

The mid-point of that range - $256 million - is below the $264 million predicted by analysts, according to Thomson data.

might explain part of the drop.

 

[gkryhewy]

Koam - I have to pat myself on the back a bit about my advice to you about Amazon vis-a-vis Harry Potter:

The popular Harry Potter book, which was heavily discounted, had a negative effect on gross margins in the quarter, which fell to 23.4 percent of worldwide sales from 23.8 percent a year ago and 24.3 percent in the prior quarter.

 

[Ether_Snake]

GOOG is just a monster, and everyone knows it. It takes hits and keeps chugging along. Is there a limit?

Not until the internet goes into a recession

Anyway for anyone who was keeping up with my daily report on Ubi, here's today's good news: Paris-based Ubisoft has beat its targets for its fiscal first-half, with help from its Tom Clancy and Blazing Angels franchises.

The fiscal results were released after the market's closure so tomorrow morning (at around 3 or 4am this morning) you can expect the share's value to rise big time. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UBI.PA,+ Last time they splited at around57 euros, around around a year ago. I wouldn't be surprised if they splited soon, maybe around November or December. Look at the chart over the past 3 years; Ninten-what? http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=UBI.PA&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=NTDOY.PK

Apple continued to go high today. Anyone see sort of a simillarity between Apple and Nintendo? I think they are becoming highly similar in corporate mentality.

Cree was up 3.29%. That stock has been a roller coaster for around the past two weeks.

Cypress Semiconductor Corporation was up 4.91%

Halliburton announced its fiscal results: Halliburton Muscles Into Strong Earnings. Share up 2.44% today.

Nokia was up 3.11%

Research in Motion was up 9.83%, did anyone stop paying attention to this stock? :lol

THQ is going back up, 1.09% and another 1.57% in after hours.

In my case it was not a great day, nothing worth mentioning tho On VSE tho it was great! +8.14%! I'm still down 1.34% overall tho

 

[gkryhewy]

NTDOY (7974) up 6.4% on the Nikkei currently, close to another all time high. Looking like a good buy today so far.

EDIT: Opening at 75 this morning.

 

[kathode]

Got hammered on AMZN Oh well, I think it's a solid company and should come back. That's what I get for jumping in headfirst without researching. I can't make another trade for a week anyway or I'm going to get hit with the pattern day trader rule. Still didn't eliminate my gains from yesterday. Between NFLX and AAPL yesterday alone put my entire portfolio up over 4%!

Wish I had jumped on RIMM weeks ago though. I heard Cramer recommend it a while back and was immediately skeptical

 

[gkryhewy]

Ah shit, it's a nosedive just in time for nintendo earnings. Fooking financial sector.

 

[koam]

Nintendo jumped to $75. Glad i bought more at $70.

 

[Troblin]

Amazon is plunging... down 16.5%

Good time to buy, or did the high P/E ratio finally catch up to the stock?

 

[Cheesemeister]

Amazon is plunging... down 16.5%

Good time to buy, or did the high P/E ratio finally catch up to the stock?

I hope plunging means up, and 75 means 200.

Go, go, NTDOY!

 

[Tarazet]

Amazon is plunging... down 16.5%

Good time to buy, or did the high P/E ratio finally catch up to the stock?

Price on 10/23/06 $38.24
Price on 10/23/07 $100.82

Any questions?

 

[crisdecuba]

Okay, here's the decision I'm faced with. By the end of the day either:

1. Sell NTDOY for a small profit and buy either NVDA and/or AAPL (reasoning: the market is down today and both these stocks seem like good short term profit investments)

2. Hold NTDOY and hope that their earnings announcement causes the stock to jump even higher (reasoning: their earnings announcement is likely going to be a very positive one)

I can't decide! Help! (Oh, and the purpose behind this is short term [i.e. from today to tomorrow/the day after that] gain, not long term investment).