crisdecuba said:Okay, here's the decision I'm faced with. By the end of the day either:
1. Sell NTDOY for a small profit and buy either NVDA and/or AAPL (reasoning: the market is down today and both these stocks seem like good short term profit investments)
2. Hold NTDOY and hope that their earnings announcement causes the stock to jump even higher (reasoning: their earnings announcement is likely going to be a very positive one)
I can't decide! Help! (Oh, and the purpose behind this is short term [i.e. from today to tomorrow/the day after that] gain, not long term investment).
koam said:Keep NTDOY. There's no reason for either NVDA or AAPL to go up by a lot any time soon. NTDOY has earnings this week.
koam said:Keep NTDOY. There's no reason for either NVDA or AAPL to go up by a lot any time soon. NTDOY has earnings this week.
Cheesemeister said:Oh, so we're finally getting dividends, eh? I was wondering when that was going to happen.
Cheesemeister said:Oh, so we're finally getting dividends, eh? I was wondering when that was going to happen.
koam said:I'm not sure, can you check what the ex-dividend date is on your broker? you seem to have the most up-to-date info on ntdoy. On pink sheets it says that the ex-dividend was in 2006. If that's the case, only people who've had that stock since back then get dividends/
Cheesemeister said:Dividend Yield 0.60%
Declared Dividend 0.0753
Ex-Dividend Date 9/27/06
Dividend Payable Date 12/22/06
WTF?
Dividend History 12-02 12-03 12-04 12-05 12-06
Dividend $ 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.36
Year-end Yield % 0.76 1.01 0.82 0.85 1.11
S&P 500 Yield %
5 Year History Splits and Dividends Amount Per Share
07-05-07 Cash Dividend 0.627730
09-27-06 Cash Dividend 0.060060
03-28-06 Cash Dividend 0.301770
09-27-05 Cash Dividend 0.063000
03-28-05 Cash Dividend 0.067000
09-27-04 Cash Dividend 0.066000
03-26-04 Cash Dividend 0.064000
09-25-03 Cash Dividend 0.057000
03-26-03 Cash Dividend 0.062000
Analysts said Microsoft paid a steep price on a bet that the three-year-old company would be able to transform itself into a hub for all sorts of Web activity.
_Rafa_ said:there must be something i dont understand. At 2pm, i've put a limit sell order on ntdoy at 75.85$ and now its 76.40$ and my order hasnt been executed. WTF?
edit: i cancelled it and place another sell limit order at 76$ and 2 minutes after its been exectuted at 76.50......Someone can explain it?
_Rafa_ said:how does it works? where can i see the taxe rate?
_Rafa_ said:how does it works? where can i see the taxe rate?
_Rafa_ said:yeah im in quebec and im a student so its 100% profit!
http://www.taxtips.ca/qctax.htm said:first $29,290 28.94%
_Rafa_ said:thanks for the info.
So i made 63$ net
_Rafa_ said:i've got 5k and theres no way im gonna put it all in one stock.
I prefer investing on short term stocks, get 5%-10%, and then invest the profit in other short term stocks, get 5-10%, etc...
gkrykewy said:The problem with that is that there are going to be just as many times that you'll lose 5-10% as gain it. There are few short term plays that are as much of a sure thing as NTDOY was two days ago. You're better off investing in a company you believe in while their stock is on an upswing, and keeping it until it isn't. NTDOY remains on an upswing.
_Rafa_ said:theres not just one good strategy. Buy signals and sell signals exist and i will try to take advantage of them. Its not true to say that trading short term means that you will gain a lot and lose a lot. There's ways to do things.
With 5K, and lots of trading on $800-$1000 basis, commissions and taxes are likely to eat all your profits._Rafa_ said:i've got 5k and theres no way im gonna put it all in one stock.
I prefer investing on short term stocks, get 5%-10%, and then invest the profit in other short term stocks, get 5-10%, etc...
Maxwell House said:With 5K, and lots of trading on $800-$1000 basis, commissions and taxes are likely to eat all your profits.
Your commissions are $4.95 each way?
I'd save up some more money and invest at least $2,500 per stock I bought (preferably $4,000 or more). Anything less, with commission that high, is just not a good idea, IMO.
The only way your strategy is going to work is if you win like 85-90% of your trades...which, needless to say, is very hard to achieve.
One even short bear run could wipe you out with that strategy.
Well, I have to disagree. Your strategy is VERY risky. Very short term selling with high commissions relative to the amount you are buying/selling is the defintion of risky trading. Just because some professional trader short term sells using TA doesn't mean it is without risk. TA by its nature is very risky._Rafa_ said:i think 4.95$ per transaction is very correct and and dont pay taxes since im a student and i make less than 9000$ a year.
My strategy is the same of Michel Carignan, a professionnal trader so theres no problem with it and its not very risky. NEedless to say that when ill have more $$$, ill invest more $$ in each stock.
_Rafa_ said:you cant say a strategy is very risky just because its short term! It depends on SO MANY more factors! You can be very risky with long term too. A strategy isnt only base on time!
_Rafa_ said:i've got 5k and theres no way im gonna put it all in one stock.
I prefer investing on short term stocks, get 5%-10%, and then invest the profit in other short term stocks, get 5-10%, etc...
xsarien said:(*I don't own any of those, so it's not like I'm trying to pump up my portfolio.)
(** see above, I'm uniformly against praising a stock in public with tacit hopes it'd get others to buy.)
_Rafa_ said:the fact is that if i make 8% with ntdoy on 2 days, I prefer that than making 8% on a month. I can use my gain in other high potential short term stocks faster. Thats basic. In the end, my commission fees will not be different.
If ntdoy was not more than 3-4% up on 2 days, i surely would have kept it for longer term. Who knows if it will hold tomorrow...IMO, i dont think so.
im watching now a couple of high potential stocks from great companys. They're at a resistence and i see buyers are making pression. Im just waiting the right moment to enter, place my limit sell price, and make profit. Sure it has some risk, but theres ways to to things that are safer than others.
Odean's study of stock traders
Terry Odean, then a grad student at the University of California at Berkeley, and his Professor Brad Barber researched the accounts of 10,000 discount-brokerage trading accounts between 1987 to 1993.
Later, Odean repeated this study on a much larger scale, in the repeat he examined the accounts of 66,465 households from 1991 to 1996. So in total, he looked at a huge number of accounts, and a vast number of trades. The conclusions from each study were virtually identical: trading hurts your wealth.
Odean found that as a group all amateur investors underperform the market due to higher than necessary trading costs. But the 20% of traders with the highest turnover underperformed the most. In the sample, while the market went up an annualised 17.1% over the period, the average investor/trader with a turnover of 80%pa returned 15.3%, but the 20% with the highest turnover, 283%pa on average, got only 10%pa.
This study was performed with the clients of a discount (non web) brokerage. How would the figures change for the ultra cheap Internet brokers?
According to Odean, not very much. Commissions were an important part of the reason why active traders had the worst performance, but the main bogeyman was the bid/ask spread. In fact Odean believes that traders as a group are now doing even worse than they did in the old discount brokerage days because turnover has increased even more.
Odean offers the following example: The average trade in his sample was roughly $13,000 in size. Trading through a discount broker, an investor might have paid $60 or so in commissions "round-trip," or $30 for the buy and $30 for the sale. But by Odean's estimate, the typical investor also lost a full 1% to the bid-ask spread -- or $130 on this typical $13,000 purchase.
If this investor switches to an online broker that makes trades for only $10, the "round-trip" cost of the trade falls to only $20 -- but the spread still amounts to a loss of $130, for a total transaction cost of $150.
No doubt $150 is cheaper than $190 but it's only around 21% less, not the 66% that investors might believe that he or she is saving. And even this 21% savings could be swallowed up if investors choose to change their behavior and trade more frequently as a result of the lower commissions.
As a matter of fact, Odean did find a tendency to trade more when traders switched to cheap web brokers. In the second study he examined the trading records of 1,600 traders that switched from discount telephone trading to deep discount web trading. He found that turnover increased by a third and traders doubled their exposure to "speculative" stocks. That is to say that telephone traders were twice as likely as web traders to buy large stocks, compared to web traders that on average concentrated more on small speculative stocks trading on the NASDAQ and other minor exchanges.
The most interesting finding of Odean's research is that traders underperform as a group even after taking out trading costs. On average, the stocks these traders sold outperformed the market, and those they bought underperformed the market. One year after each trade, the average investor wound up more than 9% poorer than if had he done nothing. Two years later, the results were even worse.
Another finding was that the traders in the group had a strong tendency to sell the wrong stocks. Odean says traders "strongly prefer to sell their winning investments and hold on to their losing investments, even though the winning investments they sell subsequently outperform the losers they continue to hold." Selling a loser amounts to admitting you have made a mistake. Traders hate that, they much prefer to sell stocks at a profit, which makes them feel like a winner, as a result traders systematically weeded out good stocks from their portfolios and retained poor ones.
_Rafa_ said:dont think i dont know that theres moments to sell too, even at loss. thats part of the strategy.
Javaman said:"the fact is that if i make 8% with ntdoy on 2 days, I prefer that than making 8% on a month."
Another thing too, is that you almost always have to have the next big investment lined up right away to put the money into since while it's out of the market it isn't making any money. It's great to make 8% here and there but how often will you be able to capture sure things like the Nintendo deal? Every couple of weeks or months? How does that compare with just leaving it in the good stock for a couple of months ? I hate to harp on you, but I just wanted to make sure you know about some of the risks you may have not considered and how a possibly short sighted gain view of the market can cloud the larger long term gain view.
Bloomberg said:Nintendo Raises Wii Output, Will Boost Revenue With China Sales
By Hiroshi Suzuki
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Nintendo Co. said it raised production of the Wii player by 80 percent during the fiscal second quarter to bolster revenue in Europe, and will further expand sales by selling the console in China next year.
Nintendo, the world's largest maker of handheld game players, plans to keep monthly production at 1.8 million Wii consoles, after boosting the output during the three months ended June 30, President Satoru Iwata said at a briefing in Tokyo today. The console will also be sold in Korea from next year, Iwata said.
The Wii lured buyers with a controller that replicates users' movements on screen, helping the player outsell Sony Corp.'s PlayStation 3 console by about three to one, according to researcher Enterbrain Inc. The company today said it plans to introduce more features such as an online television guide on the Wii to attract more customers.
``We are trying to create an environment that every household has a Wii,'' Iwata said. ``We are not done yet.''
Iwata ruled out any immediate cut to the Wii's $250 price tag, following reductions by Sony.
The production increase, from 1 million units in the three months ended March 31, allowed Nintendo to ship more Wiis in the U.K. and European regions, Iwata said.
Sales of the Wii, which began selling in Europe in December 2006, rose about 50 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 to 1.54 million, Nintendo said in a statement today.
Nintendo yesterday raised its sales target for the Wii by 6.1 percent to 17.5 million units in the year ending March 31, and the goal for game titles by 35 percent to 97 million copies.
Shares of Nintendo rose 2 percent to 67,700 yen at the close on the Osaka Securities Exchange, while the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1.4 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Hiroshi Suzuki in Tokyo at [email protected] .