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[Eddie-Griffin]

They will sell gangbusters with select bundles (Hogwarts being leaked) and games they’ll release like Spider-Man 2 and possibly Factions riding off the TLoU HBO massive success.

You were wrong about the FIFA bundles flopping, don’t double down on this.

No I wasn't.

You are assuming FIFA sales being big correlated with the bundles selling.

Turned out there weren't that many bundles even made, but there are still some left for sales showing they didn't sell out, proving my point correct because the cost was too high.

 

[El Pistolero]

I'm not going to like i thought that said PSVR2 and not PS5 for a second.

10 million PS5's in q3?

That's a bold prediction.

Sony must think box will have another 2022, and I don't blame them, no one was expecting the moves made for the last half of the year, that is moving games out of that year to this one.

The 10 millions is feasible, seeing as they sold north of 8 millions during Q3 2022. Niche-Man is going to pulverize the scene, no doubt. The 30 millions+ figure for the entire year is impossible...It is as if people propose unrealistic numbers, only to turn around and express their disappointment at Sony for failing to reach them.

 

[DeepEnigma]

No I wasn't.

You are assuming FIFA sales being big correlated with the bundles selling.

Turned out there weren't that many bundles even made, but there are still some left for sales showing they didn't sell out, proving my point correct because the cost was too high.

Ok

 

[Baki]

But PS5's are selling 1:1 with shipments anymore and haven't for awhile.

So if they still try producing that many that's going to leave gluts in many places that's going to freak retailers out.

They must be expecting Xbox to drop the ball like 2022 again, or for PSVR2 to take off encouraging more PS5 demand on top of already existing demand. Otherwise they would see how unrealistic that is.

PS5 has never sold 1:1 with shipments because there’s a lag between products being on retail shelves and Sony shipping the PS5 from their factories. Shipments include PS5s that are in shipping containers on a boat.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

If I were a betting man, I am thinking we will hear more about it just after or close to the show's finale.

This is really where Sony needs to be smart with their super bowl commercial. This Blizzard on Midgar thing doesn't sound smart. Not sure why they'd focus on God of War at this point.

Spider-Man and Last of Us need to be their focus and basically, both should be promoted during the Super Bowl. There should probably be multiple commercials at this point, maybe with the help of HBO.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I can believe that. As long as they can produce 'em, they will sell 'em, until at least the 80-100 million unit mark.

They have great momentum coming from the PS4 gen, while Xbox is still struggling pretty much everywhere and Nintendo is just doing their own thing entirely. I have no trouble believing PS5 will end up doing bigger numbers than PS4 when all is said and done, with both Switch and PS5 surpassing the 140-150m mark. Kind of a repeat of the PS2 and NDS times. I know both are technically from different generations, but their sales periods massively overlap.

I think we've passed a point where the PS5 can repeat the success of the PS2. I think the XSX/S has done well enough out of the gates that they have enough momentum to get to at least 30-40 million units. PS5 should do somewhere between PS4 and PS2.

 

[mckmas8808]

I wonder what else beyond Spider-man 2 they have planned to release that would justify a forecast that is extremely high like this

Final Fantasy 16

 

[mckmas8808]

This is really where Sony needs to be smart with their super bowl commercial. This Blizzard on Midgar thing doesn't sound smart. Not sure why they'd focus on God of War at this point.

Spider-Man and Last of Us need to be their focus and basically, both should be promoted during the Super Bowl. There should probably be multiple commercials at this point, maybe with the help of HBO.

You only spend that much money on something that people can actually buy.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

You only spend that much money on something that people can actually buy.

You can already very easily buy PS5s now, not overly abundant, but the momentum is clear that we're going to reach a point where supply is able to satiate demand by the end of this quarter or the next.

 

[mckmas8808]

You can already very easily buy PS5s now, not overly abundant, but the momentum is clear that we're going to reach a point where supply is able to satiate demand by the end of this quarter or the next.

I meant the God Of War part. They shouldn't be putting Spiderman 2 in Superbowl commercials yet.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I meant the God Of War part. They shouldn't be putting Spiderman 2 in Superbowl commercials yet.

Putting Spider-Man 2 in the Super Bowl is about building brand demand and keeping that demand high.

I've seen people suggest that Sony will cut the price of the PS5, but I don't think that is their first inclination.

It makes way more sense to explore this PS5 Slim at 500 dollars a unit and gauge demand with FF16, Spider-Man, Factions than 400 a unit.

Think if you expect to sell 20 million units in the course of a 12-month period. 8 billion vs 10 billion, that's the difference between being able to buy a major studio. Now increase that to 30 million units that's 12 billion dollars vs 15 billion.

And honestly, I think they'll try to keep their bundled software going strong with a Spider-Man 2 bundle, so we're talking about 560 and 16.8 billion in revenue.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Putting Spider-Man 2 in the Super Bowl is about building brand demand and keeping that demand high.

I've seen people suggest that Sony will cut the price of the PS5, but I don't think that is their first inclination.

It makes way more sense to explore this PS5 Slim at 500 dollars a unit and gauge demand with FF16, Spider-Man, Factions than 400 a unit.

Think if you expect to sell 20 million units in the course of a 12-month period. 8 billion vs 10 billion, that's the difference between being able to buy a major studio. Now increase that to 30 million units that's 12 billion dollars vs 15 billion.

And honestly, I think they'll try to keep their bundled software going strong with a Spider-Man 2 bundle, so we're talking about 560 and 16.8 billion in revenue.

There will be demand when the new Verse movie comes out, as well as marketing picks up in the Fall. Niche man will be okay.

 

[Tsaki]

DS had a year or 2 where it hit just over 30 million, based on charts I've seen posted.

Sony is playing catch-up now that supply constraints are gone, so yes I 100% believe this leak. Based on their own stated goal of surpassing the PS4 sales curve next FY, they have to move at least 22 million units. I think 30.5 will be doable given how hard they're pushing. The new model will begin production in April according to Tom, so plenty of stock for the September release

Over 30million home consoles is a LOT. The DS and Switch could do it/come close to it because they are also handhelds. There are households that have 3 or more Switches, between parents and kids, while a PS5 needs its own TV over it.
Having said that, Sony has a lot going for them, and that 30m number could become a reality. Personally I would put it at 26m and if it's more then, oh well, even better.
PS5 numbers will be boosted by:
Hogwarts Legacy which is a defacto next gen game now and is marketed with Sony.
FF16. This will greatly boost the Japan numbers too.
Spiderman 2 (this is the big one).
FF7 Rebirth (they said next winter, Dec 2023, Jan & Feb 2024, so well into the FY. ofc the game could be delayed to May or whatever so that would exclude it).
New PS5 model (cheaper to make while streamlining the production process by not having two models. if they have $399 PS5s in-stores, these will fly off the shelves).
Good chance to have a beta for TLOU Online this year (the show being a runaway success will be a major boost to draw in more casuals).

 

[mckmas8808]

Putting Spider-Man 2 in the Super Bowl is about building brand demand and keeping that demand high.

I've seen people suggest that Sony will cut the price of the PS5, but I don't think that is their first inclination.

It makes way more sense to explore this PS5 Slim at 500 dollars a unit and gauge demand with FF16, Spider-Man, Factions than 400 a unit.

Think if you expect to sell 20 million units in the course of a 12-month period. 8 billion vs 10 billion, that's the difference between being able to buy a major studio. Now increase that to 30 million units that's 12 billion dollars vs 15 billion.

And honestly, I think they'll try to keep their bundled software going strong with a Spider-Man 2 bundle, so we're talking about 560 and 16.8 billion in revenue.

Jim Ryan doesn't work that way. You're talking about the old Sony. Jim likes to tell you something is coming 12-24 months early and then go radio silent. And then within the last 60 days before release go super heavy on marketing that product.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Jim Ryan doesn't work that way. You're talking about the old Sony. Jim likes to tell you something is coming 12-24 months early and then go radio silent. And then within the last 60 days before release go super heavy on marketing that product.

The Nintendo effect. And it has been paying off.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Jim Ryan doesn't work that way. You're talking about the old Sony. Jim likes to tell you something is coming 12-24 months early and then go radio silent. And then within the last 60 days before release go super heavy on marketing that product.

Sony is already advertising with Spider-Man 2 in Australia and maybe Uncharted 5 teaser...

 

[Thirty7ven]

But PS5's are selling 1:1 with shipments anymore and haven't for awhile.

So if they still try producing that many that's going to leave gluts in many places that's going to freak retailers out.

They must be expecting Xbox to drop the ball like 2022 again, or for PSVR2 to take off encouraging more PS5 demand on top of already existing demand. Otherwise they would see how unrealistic that is.

Would love to know your previous thoughts on the numbers PS5 just pulled recently. A whole lot of people were saying Sony was overestimating demand and availability, and suddenly they are not only meeting the target but going as far as million above it.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Would love to know your previous thoughts on the numbers PS5 just pulled recently. A whole lot of people were saying Sony was overestimating demand and availability, and suddenly they are not only meeting the target but going as far as million above it.

 

[mckmas8808]

The Nintendo effect. And it has been paying off.

You're saying Nintendo started this type of marketing? If so, how long have they been doing this?

 

[DeepEnigma]

You're saying Nintendo started this type of marketing? If so, how long have they been doing this?

They have been doing this for quite some time. Announce something, then be radio silent for quite some time, not so much as a peep, then drop a Direct with more info closer to release schedules.

 

[mckmas8808]

They have been doing this for quite some time. Announce something, then be radio silent for quite some time, not so much as a peep, then drop a Direct with more info closer to release schedules.

AH!!!! So Jim is stealing their playbook. Super smart because Nintendo for years has a way to make you "focus" on that one or two things, instead of on 10 different things at once and always talking about everything. It's helped Nintendo sell so many first party games. And you can now see it happening to Sony.

Man this is crazy, because it's the #1 reason why I hate Jim Ryan, but it's also one of the best things he's done for the Playstation brand.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

PS5 has never sold 1:1 with shipments because there’s a lag between products being on retail shelves and Sony shipping the PS5 from their factories. Shipments include PS5s that are in shipping containers on a boat.

Your just proved my point actually. that there would be a glut of consoles.

Meant to say 'aren't' in that post btw, not 'are'.

 

[IndianaJack]

They have been doing this for quite some time. Announce something, then be radio silent for quite some time, not so much as a peep, then drop a Direct with more info closer to release schedules.

So why doesn't XBox do the same?

 

[MasterCornholio]

So why doesn't XBox do the same?

Basically the way I see it.

 

[kazuyamishima]

AH!!!! So Jim is stealing their playbook. Super smart because Nintendo for years has a way to make you "focus" on that one or two things, instead of on 10 different things at once and always talking about everything. It's helped Nintendo sell so many first party games. And you can now see it happening to Sony.

Man this is crazy, because it's the #1 reason why I hate Jim Ryan, but it's also one of the best things he's done for the Playstation brand.

In all honesty, the man is doing his job and not talking too much, as he (supposedly) said “let our games do all the talking”

 

[onQ123]

I might be tripping but I think this was said before PS5 was even revealed one of the leaks talked about them shipping an insane amount of PS5'S but I guess the chip shortage put this on hold until now.

 

[MasterCornholio]

I might be tripping but I think this was said before PS5 was even revealed one of the leaks talked about them shipping an insane amount of PS5'S but I guess the chip shortage put this on hold until now.

I think that's due to the way Sony designed the PS5. Easy to make and simple to reduce costs for.

 

[PUNKem733]

Thinking about it, this is ASTONISHING! They expect almost 70 million sell through after only 3.5 years, and the first two years supply constrained because of the pandemic. I ws just thinking what if things were normal, 100 million in 3.5 years? Absolutely crazy, I guess consoles will be dead any day now lol

 

[onQ123]

I think that's due to the way Sony designed the PS5. Easy to make and simple to reduce costs for.

Yeah one of the leaks said some parts would be expensive in the beginning but would become cheap after the first few years.


Sidenote: PS4 was a cash cow & thanks to online store fronts like PSN it seem like Sony would have been happy to continue pushing them out but I guess locking people into PS5 is bigger than just selling software because they really went all in on getting PS5 to the masses instead of letting PS4 continue to grow it's install base. PS4 mini could have flooded the market the last few years.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Yeah one of the leaks said some parts would be expensive in the beginning but would become cheap after the first few years.


Sidenote: PS4 was a cash cow & thanks to online store fronts like PSN it seem like Sony would have been happy to continue pushing them out but I guess locking people into PS5 is bigger than just selling software because they really went all in on getting PS5 to the masses instead of letting PS4 continue to grow it's install base. PS4 mini could have flooded the market the last few years.

Pretty much. If Sony went with a weird hardware design I can imagine it would have been a lot more difficult for production.

 

[truth411]

I wonder what else beyond Spider-man 2 they have planned to release that would justify a forecast that is extremely high like this

Final Fantasy 16
Final Fantasy 7 part2

 

[Sanepar]

Not trolling at all but if PlayStation 5 hit anywhere close to these numbers without Xbox Series sales picking up they might as well shut down production & count their losses.

It would be over from this point with nothing to focus on but Gamepass.

Ms is not targeting this gen. Next one with cod exclusive.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Ms is not targeting this gen. Next one with cod exclusive.

 

[MikeM]

Final Fantasy 16
Final Fantasy 7 part2

Hard Day 1 games.

 

[DarkMage619]

Not trolling at all but if PlayStation 5 hit anywhere close to these numbers without Xbox Series sales picking up they might as well shut down production & count their losses.

It would be over from this point with nothing to focus on but Gamepass.

With this logic MS should have shut things down after the original Xbox. PS2 sold 150 million to less than 25 million Xbox. Yet for some reason MS didn't throw in the towel. Or do you think there will be a repeat of the original Xbox vs PS2 performance? Generation in and out a certain segment keeps calling for Xbox to be dropped. Twenty+ years going strong now.

 

[onQ123]

Ms is not targeting this gen. Next one with cod exclusive.

They was targeting this gen they target every generation.

 

[onQ123]

With this logic MS should have shut things down after the original Xbox. PS2 sold 150 million to less than 25 million Xbox. Yet for some reason MS didn't throw in the towel. Or do you think there will be a repeat of the original Xbox vs PS2 performance?

They did they moved on to Xbox 360

Edit: And I love what Nintendo did in that situation they was like we didn't design these chips for nothing & reused them in the Wii & got their money's worth out of them lol.

 

[light2x]

I wonder what else beyond Spider-man 2 they have planned to release that would justify a forecast that is extremely high like this

They have a ton of studios and zero announced games outside of Spiderman and Wolverine. They must have something major for second half.

 

[Crayon]

Ms is not targeting this gen. Next one with cod exclusive.

What's important is that you stick with them in their decade of need.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

I wonder what else beyond Spider-man 2 they have planned to release that would justify a forecast that is extremely high like this

Abandoned and Agent.

 

[Fake]

wrong thread.

 

[azertydu91]

What's important is that you stick with them in their decade of need.

Guys .....GUYS!!! you have to stop this, you'll change Sanepar position on Edmund 's universal scale of crazyness....

 

[azertydu91]

Abandoned and Agent.

And wild...Where did this game went ?

 

[Crayon]

Guys .....GUYS!!! you have to stop this, you'll change Sanepar on Edmund 's universal scale of crazyness....

 

[John Wick]

Yeah, there's no way I'm trusting this leak though. 30 million units in a year and 10 million during the Christmas quarter. So 20 million units in the other non-Christmas quarters is insane! An average of 6.8 million per quarter in a non-Holiday quarter is just not happening. It's TOO much.

Plus how can Sony literally produce 18 million of the new diskless PS5s this fiscal year, if it's supposed to come out in September?

They are making the new PS5 from April this year for release in September.

 

[ulantan]

Abandoned and Agent.

Deep down in November I'm hearing

 

[Unknown?]

With this logic MS should have shut things down after the original Xbox. PS2 sold 150 million to less than 25 million Xbox. Yet for some reason MS didn't throw in the towel. Or do you think there will be a repeat of the original Xbox vs PS2 performance? Generation in and out a certain segment keeps calling for Xbox to be dropped. Twenty+ years going strong now.

They did, that's why 360 was rushed out and unfortunately had production problems.

 

[onQ123]

They did, that's why 360 was rushed out and unfortunately had production problems.

If I'm Microsoft & I see PlayStation selling 30 million this year while already selling the most software I'm disrupting this generation with a early release I'll worry about the red rings later

 

[Poltz]

Surely this is SHIPPED not sold through.

If I'm Microsoft & I see PlayStation selling 30 million this year while already selling the most software I'm disrupting this generation with a early release I'll worry about the red rings later

You risk putting out a console an AMD gen behind though nowadays which is a bigger L in the long run.

 

[onQ123]

Surely this is SHIPPED not sold through.


You risk putting out a console an AMD gen behind though nowadays which is a bigger L in the long run.

I'll release a Pro when PS6 release lol