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(Wedbush) November NPD Preview & OFFICIAL Prediction thread

C

chase

Member
This my first one!

PS3 - 200k
Wii - 4 (sorry that's ho much it deserves to waggle oops i mean sellol
DS - 69k
PS2 - 3 mil
360 - 970,00
GBA - /10
PSP - whats this?

I try to hard!
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
threeball said:
You guys are still over estimating the PS2.

It didn't pull 500k+ numbers last year, why would it this year?
Click to expand...
Didn't it? The number I see in a text file (saved from a GAF post of NPD numbers through May 2006) is 531,000, though that clearly isn't entirely accurate. Beside that, considering PS2 has done better than X360 for most of the past year, a prediction like "500K X360, 400K PS2" would seem out of place.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
Numbers prediction

DS: Visible
GBA: Visible
Wii: Visible
GCN: Visible

Xbox: Visible
360: Visible

PSP: Visible
PS3: Mysteriously suppressed
PS2: Visible
 
C

Clever Pun

Member
Odysseus said:
Numbers prediction

DS: Visible
GBA: Visible
Wii: Visible
GCN: Visible

Xbox: Visible
360: Visible

PSP: Visible
PS3: Mysteriously suppressed
PS2: Visible
Click to expand...

weren't we promised all hardware and top 100 software for all consoles by sonycowboy?

or something along those lines?
 
S

seattle6418

Member
360 = 470k
PS3 = 320k
wii = 440k

PS2 = 625k
xbox = 40k
gamecube = 25k

PSP = 200k
DS = 750k
GBA = 110k
N-gage = 2

seriously, the 360 numbers are said to be confirmed by bloomberg... but the source is joystic, so we can´t really buy into that report. i haven´t seen the news on bloomberg
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Odysseus said:
Numbers prediction

DS: Visible
GBA: Visible
Wii: Visible
GCN: Visible

Xbox: Visible
360: Visible

PSP: Visible
PS3: Mysteriously suppressed
PS2: Visible
Click to expand...
:lol

seriously though- thank you. I really needed a good laugh.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Predictions

1. NDS - 1,112K
2. GBA - 660K
3. WII - 585K
4. 360 - 520K
5. PS2 - 420K
6. PSP - 260K
7. PS3 - 215K
8. GCN - 72K
9. XBX - 3.6K
 
J

JavyOO7

Member
donny2112 said:
Just a reminder:

There are 9 systems to predict for this month! Only a few posters have predicted for all nine. If you've already made a prediction, go back and count the number of systems you posted. If you don't have nine, figure out what you skipped and add it in.

PS3
PS2
PSP

360
XBX

WII
NDS
GBA
GCN
Click to expand...

PS3: 200K
PS2: 500K
PSP: 300K

360: 600K
WII: 600K
XBX: 75K

NDS: 900K
GBA: 575K
GCN: 90K
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
PS3 - 240k
PS2 - 490k
PSP - 385k

360 - 600k
XBX - 14k

WII - 510k
NDS - 900k
GBA - 370k
GCN - 60k

Commentary: A little bullish on the 360. I think Gears plus PS3 shortages will move hardware. I'm basing my Wii projection on the 600k sold estimate from Nintendo, backing out Canada. (Their date range was within a day or so of NPD.) PS2 is trending slightly behind last year, but not much. PS3 is based off EA's commentary.

A couple of software for the heck of it:

Gears of War: 900k
Zelda: 370k
 
G

gamergirly

Member
NDS - 900,000
Wii - 550,000
GC - 60,000
Xbox - 15,000
Xbox 360 - 450,000
PSP - 175,000
PS2 - 500,000
PS3 - 225,000
GBA - 400,000
 
G

Galactic Fork

A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
I managed to get thursday off this week so I can enjoy the epic NPD thread! Realizing how happy this makes me, makes me feel kinda pathetic.

But anyway! Predictions!

PS3 - 300k
PS2 - 550k
PSP - 400k

360 - 500k
XBX - 10k

WII - 480k
NDS - 750k
GBA - 400k
GCN - 60k
 
S

Speevy

Banned
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Xbox and Gamecube routinely hit close to a million during November in their heydays (2002-2004)?
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
Speevy said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Xbox and Gamecube routinely hit close to a million during November in their heydays (2002-2004)?
Click to expand...

Here's a correction because you are wrong.

Routinely half a mil for November (700K for Halo 2 in 2004), routinely a million for Xbox in December.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
PS3 = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
360 = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
DS = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
PSP = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
Wii = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
GBA =<insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
PS2 = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
XBX = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
GCN = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
PS3 = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
360 = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
DS = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
PSP = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
Wii = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
GBA =<insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
PS2 = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
XBX = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
GCN = <insert Random Number Pulled out my Arse>
Click to expand...
you're so clever.
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
My hardware prediction:

DS - 930k
X360 - 580k
PS2 - 540k
Wii - 520k
GBA - 440k
PSP - 330k
PS3 - 210k
GC - 110k
XBX - 10k

Software:

Gears of War - 620k
FF XII - 590k
Zelda TP - 390k
GTA VCS - 340k
NSMB - 300k
Nintendogs (combined) - 270k
FF III - 230k
Brain Age 210k
Resistance - 130k
 
D

donny2112

Member
GreenGlowingGoo said:
I managed to get thursday off this week so I can enjoy the epic NPD thread!
Click to expand...

Unless you work nights, you should have taken Friday off. The NPD stuff usually starts Thursday evening.
 
S

Square2005

Banned
Speevy said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Xbox and Gamecube routinely hit close to a million during November in their heydays (2002-2004)?
Click to expand...

See for yourself, here's how the war has played out over the past six years so far:
314976707_a5ea525305_b.jpg

Since it's so wide this is as large as Flickr would allow, sorry it's not larger.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Square2005 said:
http://static.flickr.com/110/314976707_a5ea525305_b.jpg
Click to expand...

So after this Christmas, Xbox will have won 3 Christmases (vs. GCN) and GameCube will have won 3 Christmases (vs. XBX) in the U.S. :lol
 
J

jetjevons

Bish loves my games!
I'd love to see someone figure out the accumulative AVERAGE from these prediction threads and see how close it is to the real deal.
 
D

donny2112

Member
jetjevons said:
I'd love to see someone figure out the accumulative AVERAGE from these prediction threads and see how close it is to the real deal.
Click to expand...

So, tell me. At what point in your schooling will they teach addition, subtraction, and division?
 
P

pswii60

Member
donny2112 said:
You haven't been paying attention to the sales for those two consoles over the last year, have you? Xbox averaged < 1K per week in October, whereas the GameCube has been around 40K per month for the last three months.
Click to expand...

I missed the nought off, thats all.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
Fuel To The Fire

In its monthly report analyst Arcadia Investment says console sales in November topped 3.2 million units. Next-Gen has exclusive details of the report’s highlights including platform break-downs.
Arcadia says hardware sales increased by at least 50% year on year, with software up about 20%. Retail dollars increased by about 25-30% to about $1.6 billion, compared to $1.3 billion in November 2005.

Xbox 360 unit sales topped a minimum of 500K units in the month, probably more, with 200K in Black Friday week. Retailers attributed the increase to strong sales of Gears of War and “chronic press coverage” of supply constraints on PS3. Microsoft is now on track to sell through about 4.25 million units in the US in calendar 2006 with an installed base of around 5 million units.

As is well known, available quantity of PS3 was probably less than 150K units at launch, with a further 50K creeping into the channel in November. The low tie ratio for PS3 is blamed on eBay resale speculation with some retailers reporting less than 0.5 software units per hardware unit. Arcadia says a 600K total sell through for the year is reasonable.

The analyst bases its numbers on retail surveys, although these are less definitive than NPD’s numbers, due out later this week. It says Wii sold about 500K in unit sales in November with a tie ratio of about 2X,. Zelda attached at a 75% or better rate. The report says that Nintendo remains on track to deliver about 1.3 million units to retail shelves by year end.

PS2 sales topped 500K units, driven by the $129 price point and Guitar Hero 2. PS2 is on track to hit about 4.7 million units in CY 06, which would bring the US total to about 36.5 million by year end. At this point it's not clear if Xbox 360 beat PS2 for the month.

Among the handhelds, DS unit sales topped 600K units, putting it on track to exceed 4.5 million by year end and 8.3 million cumulative. PSP unit sales approximated 350K units, similar to last year’s. PSP is on track to sell about 2.9 million units during the year, driving the installed base to about 6.5 million units. GBA sold 500K in November, which should bring the year end total to approximately 3.1 million units and the cumulative to 35 million.
Click to expand...
 
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