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(Wedbush) November NPD Preview & OFFICIAL Prediction thread
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
pol's voice
Banned
I'm thinking by Summer '07 the Wii will catch up to 360 at current pace providing supplies are there.
Mike Works
Member
i've never played this game before but i'll try!
DS - 689,000
360 - 598,000
GBA - 505,000
PS2 - 485,000
Wii - 460,000
PSP - 407,000
PS3 - 265,000
DS - 689,000
360 - 598,000
GBA - 505,000
PS2 - 485,000
Wii - 460,000
PSP - 407,000
PS3 - 265,000
Cheesemeister
Member
After crunching some numbers, here are the average and range of guesses per platform, rounded to the nearest whole unit:
NDS: 785,294 (300K ~ 1,200K)
360: 540,936 (349K ~ 750K)
Wii: 527,192 (349K ~ 800K)
PS2: 511,497 (200K ~ 750K)
GBA: 385,542 (90K ~ 740K)
PSP: 301,427 (75K ~ 500K)
PS3: 216,692 (150K ~ 350K)
NGC: 65,179 (12K ~ 150K)
XBX: 14,680 (1K ~ 75K)
Given actual hardware numbers, the best of the 66 to make all 9 platform guesses will follow.
NDS: 785,294 (300K ~ 1,200K)
360: 540,936 (349K ~ 750K)
Wii: 527,192 (349K ~ 800K)
PS2: 511,497 (200K ~ 750K)
GBA: 385,542 (90K ~ 740K)
PSP: 301,427 (75K ~ 500K)
PS3: 216,692 (150K ~ 350K)
NGC: 65,179 (12K ~ 150K)
XBX: 14,680 (1K ~ 75K)
Given actual hardware numbers, the best of the 66 to make all 9 platform guesses will follow.
DeadlySchnauzer
Member
so arcadia investment has released retail survey figures giving hardware numbers for november but my thread on that got locked instantly.... is that because i should have posted here?
Ghengis Cohen
Banned
Your thread was the third one started with that information after it got posted in this thread.DeadlySchnauzer said:
gamergirly
Member
Cheesemeister said:
Looks like just about everyone predicts the DS being the highest selling platform.
It had better be, at $129.
It could sell nearly four times as much as 360 and just be on par in money spent by consumers. Not too mention $60 games versus $30-40 games, and a much higher attach rate I'd wager on 360, will make the dollar disparity in favor of microsoft even bigger.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4343&Itemid=2
Wow, if these numbers are true DS just isn't catching on in the West like Japan. Cant say I'm entirely surprised. Japanese spend a lot of time on buses/public transport. There just isn't that market size for handhelds in the West.
Wow, if these numbers are true DS just isn't catching on in the West like Japan. Cant say I'm entirely surprised. Japanese spend a lot of time on buses/public transport. There just isn't that market size for handhelds in the West.
KeithFranklin
Banned
pol's voice said:
You honestly think the Wii will continue at launch pace?
Cheesemeister
Member
Note: guesses equal to the borderline on each bucket are on the left-hand side of the boundary.
Flo_Evans said:
I would go with fewer bannings, but yes.
I am actually really not looking forward to it. I thought it would be fun, but console politics have become so bitter around here that a mod is going to need to actively be participating in the thread in order to keep it under control. It's going to be that bad.
Awesome, graphs of our predictions now. November NPD is serious stuff! Posters, movie trailers, digested predictions, dogs and cats, living together. Mass hysteria!
Interesting that the 360 has a non-standard distribution. That's the one which is hardest to predict since we don't have any existing announcements or supply constraint figures to go on. If the analysts are right, and MS moves 750k, then nealy everone gets owned. :lol
Kinda related, Microsoft yesterday reiterated the 10 by year end target. So November must have been on track.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4346&Itemid=2
Interesting that the 360 has a non-standard distribution. That's the one which is hardest to predict since we don't have any existing announcements or supply constraint figures to go on. If the analysts are right, and MS moves 750k, then nealy everone gets owned. :lol
Kinda related, Microsoft yesterday reiterated the 10 by year end target. So November must have been on track.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4346&Itemid=2
gamergirly
Member
Of the 3 predictions, 360 guesses are all over the place but the majority are toward the lower end of the sale range. It's the most unpredictable system of the bunch. I wonder. Will anything below 500,000 for 360 be considered a failure for November?
gamergirly said:
I'd say lower than 450 would be concerning, lower than 500K would be disappointing given the trends of the year, whereas higher than 600K would put it in a considerably favorable light, borderlining on outstanding. 700K or higher would be eye popping. Lower than 400K would be [insert RE4 bail out pic].
I think anything like the Xbox's November 2002 numbers will be a sign that the 360 isn't ready to hold the US market from Sony any longer than early 2008.
And Gears is most certainly the best selling next gen. game in November, so if that didn't move consoles, Halo 3 will have to.
And Gears is most certainly the best selling next gen. game in November, so if that didn't move consoles, Halo 3 will have to.
goldenpp72
Member
wasnt the xbox 200 bucks by its second november? I might be mistaken.
Earthstrike
Member
Sharky said:
Weren't the maority of GBA sales last handheld gen in North america?
Edit: (Yes it was)
DefectiveReject
Banned
360: 603k
PS2: 611k
Wii: 540k
PS3: 189k
GCN: 57K
Xbox: 3K
DS: 831k
GBA: 700k
PSP: 300k
Gears of War: 1m
Zelda: 440K
FFXII: 755K
All version of Call of Duty 3: 698K
Resistance: 120K
Brain Age: 300K
Red Steel: 112K
PS2: 611k
Wii: 540k
PS3: 189k
GCN: 57K
Xbox: 3K
DS: 831k
GBA: 700k
PSP: 300k
Gears of War: 1m
Zelda: 440K
FFXII: 755K
All version of Call of Duty 3: 698K
Resistance: 120K
Brain Age: 300K
Red Steel: 112K
Interesting, yet at the same time, rather boring. I hope the figures aren't so predictable when we finally get them. Looking at Cheesemeister's list the biggest curve-balls for GAFfers will be the Nintendo handhelds.BenjaminBirdie said:
Oh and the tie-ratio commentary is....wow...I remember some report coming out awhile back that predicted 2 for PS3 and 3 for Wii, and I thought both were outrageous underestimations. Luckily for Sony and Nintendo long-term tie-ratios nearly always even out to similar levels between platforms...if publishers stick it out.
Shipped, but from the distribution center in the US, not from the factory in China. That's ~6 week gap between what MS defines as shipped and what Sony does, according to Bach.syllogism said:
November must have gone well for them to reiterate that number indo December. I'd imagine at least 3 of the four million total planned shipments for the quarter are out the door by now.
Is their even a point at which they abandon that number?GhaleonEB said:
I think they would choose to follow through, ride it out, hit their (low end) 13M target for FY'07, then if their hand is forced, slow the pace of shipments, losing no face.
Having said that, I don't think their hand will be forced. Clearing 4M worldwide (or close enough) for November/December should be fairly trivial, leaving as much stock in the channel as there was beforehand.
The Innocent X
Banned
Striek said:
I`d be amazed if they didn`t hit the shipping number, regardless of sell-through. Its a financial target, and so they will be pushing big to hit it, even if it means discounting them to retailers.
EDIT: sold to MS means sold to retailers, not customers. The "in gamers hands" thing was PR rubbish.
And to be fair, only Shane Kim used that phrase, and only in one interview. Everyone else was talking shipped both before and after that interview, which makes me think he was simply mistaken. Though, at the time they were talking shipped by the time the PS3 launched, so something definately changed. :lolChrisAllenFiz said:
If MS manage to sell over 2 million in NA during November and December their pricing strategy has definitely paid off.
It will be interesting to see which console (not handheld) has sold most. Despite my prediction I guess that PS2, 360 and Wii will be very close. Hard to call.
It will be interesting to see which console (not handheld) has sold most. Despite my prediction I guess that PS2, 360 and Wii will be very close. Hard to call.
Oh, November might be tight, but for Nov+Dec (which I thought you meant), the odds are basically none IMO. Unless we have a colossal cock-up by Sony and Microsoft, or Nintendo ships alot more than they said they would, I think the Wii won't beat much at all. GC, Xbox and PS3 of course, with an outside chance at the PSP.
I had a dream about 360 sales too:GhaleonEB said:Okay, I just woke up after having a dream about NPD sales. A dream!
Gah!
360 had 610k
this is what happens when I'm stuck in bed without anything to look forward to for a few weeks.
750k in november
1.5M in december
3.0M in january
6.0M in february
...
I woke up early 2008 because the world was covered by 360s and we all died