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These graphs, especially when looking at year 2012 are basically saying out loud "You got what you could out of this, but it is time for new consoles"

I wonder how much it would drop and to what levels in 2014 if no new consoles were to be released (they will be released, just a sort of "what if" question).

 

[DaBuddaDa]

These graphs, especially when looking at year 2012 are basically saying out loud "You got what you could out of this, but it is time for new consoles"

Remember that graph is retail US sales. There are more pressing reasons for its decline (recession, digital distro) than a desire for new consoles.

 

[Josh7289]

Due to holiday in U.S. my column was bumped to Tuesday. Sorry.

Here's a graph not in tomorrow's column, just for fun.

Whoa, that's a huge contraction.

 

[Hero]

I believe the column is up now.
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/184899/US_retail_software_in_2012_What_you_need_to_know.php

Great article like always, jvm. You even addressed the digital factor which is an unknown for both the Vita and Wii U.

 

[donny2112]

Great article like always, jvm. You even addressed the digital factor which is an unknown for both the Vita and Wii U.

And 3DS and 360 and PS3 (I think). Not much to consider in terms of hard numbers for any of them, though. :/

 

[CTLance]

Nice read, jvm.

That estimated annual retail software chart. To see it in graph form is nice, particularly that horrible hunch of the Wii software. Ouch.

 

[Version 3.0]

Remember that graph is retail US sales. There are more pressing reasons for its decline (recession, digital distro) than a desire for new consoles.

I disagree. Digital has been a factor - and, if you have been here for a while, not by any means a universally expanding one - for years, and so has the recession. The recent steep decline is due mostly to console age, and price. If the decline was based on digital sales, the hardware drop-off wouldn't be so bad. There's a rough correlation between hardware and software sales, even as late in a life cycle as this.

 

[jbug617]

Thanks! Suprised by the Nike + Kinect training info, I thought it bombed hard.

yeah me too but they pushed it hard on tv with tons of commercials and athlete sponsors.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Interesting column.

Confirms suspicions that only certain segments of the market (i.e. handhelds) are major drivers of the decline. I imagine the same thing happens when looking at the UK.

Tie ratio of 1.8 for Wii U = 1.6M units of software, around 820K of that for NSMBU. 100K+ for ZombiU. Leaving less than 680K for everything else.

How many other titles were there? 27? 28? Average is presumably around 25K.

 

[donny2112]

Tie ratio of 1.8 for Wii U = 1.6M units of software, around 580K of that for NSMBU. 100K+ for ZombiU. Leaving less than 930K for everything else.

Fixed.

 

[Striek]

Wii U software attach of 1.8 is actually better than most estimates here IIRC?

Nike+ Kinect is the other curious nugget in the article. Makes me wonder what expectations were to begin with, since just looking at the math the figure it did can't have been that high.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Fixed.

Oops. For some reason I thought the number in the OP for NSMBU was just for December.

 

[NBtoaster]

Fixed.

900k for other titles, and ZombiU the only third party game >100k LTD must mean a ton of titles are 50-100k. Seems strong.

But then games like Mass Effect 3 are less than 10k.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=46323773&postcount=2208

 

[Admiral Bone to Pick]

Looks like expanded market that Wii brough is now gone and we are back to core gamer dominated enviroment.

This isn't true at all. The expanded market isn't gone, it's just that Nintendo has done very little to appeal to it with the Wii U. Traditional Nintendo series (Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong) can appeal to the expanded audience, but that audience is achieved only through breakout titles like Wii Sports/Play, Brain Training, and Nintendogs. Not to mention that the PS3/360 have large casual/expanded markets of their own.

 

[onipex]

This isn't true at all. The expanded market isn't gone, it's just that Nintendo has done very little to appeal to it with the Wii U. Traditional Nintendo series (Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong) can appeal to the expanded audience, but that audience is achieved only through breakout titles like Wii Sports/Play, Brain Training, and Nintendogs. Not to mention that the PS3/360 have large casual/expanded markets of their own.

It doesn't seem like Nintendo is even doing any marketing for the expanded market. The Wii was advertised in places that you didn't really see game marketing. Now I don't see any marketing outside networks for kids.

 

[shinra-bansho]

900k for other titles, and ZombiU the only third party game >100k LTD must mean a ton of titles are 50-100k. Seems strong.

But then games like Mass Effect 3 are less than 10k.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=46323773&postcount=2208

John Harker said that there were 2-3 games with an attach rate >10%. So there's likely another title ~100K, maybe Scribblenauts?

I think there were a total of 29 launch titles, so maybe something like an average of 30K. I don't think that would amount to a ton of titles above 50K, unless there are equally a lot of titles still under 10K.

 

[NBtoaster]

John Harker said that there were 2-3 games with an attach rate >10%. So there's likely another title ~100K, maybe Scribblenauts?

I think there were a total of 29 launch titles, so maybe something like an average of 30K. I don't think that would amount to a ton of titles above 50K, unless there are equally a lot of titles still under 10K.

Looking at Creamsugars lists:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=46300827&highlight=#post46300827
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=45145213&highlight=#post45145213

Just Dance 4 can't be far behind ZombiU, they just swapped places between November and December. It was less than COD's 21k in November (5% attatch rate) so must have been ~80k in December.

 

[jvm]

Top 10 lists from Nintendo. Archived here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtXhc02VTSWzdF9VTmpSTUFSektUaG5jS1Yzc3lmN3c#gid=12

Wii U December 2012

1. New Super Mario Bros. U
2. Just Dance 4
3. Scribblenauts Unlimited
4. Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed
5. ZombiU
6. Disney Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Two
7. Call of Duty: Black Ops II
8. Skylanders Giants Wii U
9. Batman Arkham City Armored Edition
10. Nintendo Land

Wii December 2012

1. Just Dance 4
2. Skylanders Giants
3. Just Dance Disney Party
4. Disney Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Two
5. Mario Kart Wii
6. New Super Mario Bros. Wii
7. Wipeout: The Game
8. The Hip Hop Dance Experience
9. LEGO® The Lord of the Rings
10. Super Mario Galaxy

3DS December 2012

1. New Super Mario Bros. 2
2. Paper Mario: Sticker Star
3. Angry Birds Trilogy
4. Mario Kart 7
5. Super Mario 3D Land
6. Disney Epic Mickey: The Power of lllusion
7. Scribblenauts Unlimited
8. Wreck-It Ralph
9. Steel Diver
10. Style Savvy: Trendsetters

NDS December 2012

1. Pokémon Black Version 2
2. Pokémon White Version 2
3. New Super Mario Bros.
4. LEGO Battles: Ninjago
5. Mario Kart DS
6. Wreck-It Ralph
7. LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
8. Plants vs Zombies
9. Sonic Classic Collection
10. Super Mario 64 DS

Below are TTM (trailing 12 month) lists. That means FULL YEAR 2012

Wii Full Year 2012

1. Just Dance 4
2. Just Dance 3
3. Mario Party 9
4. Zumba Fitness 2
5. Super Mario Galaxy
6. Skylanders Giants
7. LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
8. uDraw Studio: Instant Artist
9. Wii Sports
10. Skylanders Spyro's Adventure

3DS Full Year 2012

1. New Super Mario Bros. 2
2. Mario Kart 7
3. Super Mario 3D Land
4. Paper Mario: Sticker Star
5. Angry Birds Trilogy
6. Kid Icarus: Uprising
7. Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance]
8. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
9. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
10. Mario Tennis Open

NDS Full Year 2012

1. Pokémon Black Version 2
2. New Super Mario Bros.
3. Pokémon White Version 2
4. LEGO Battles: Ninjago
5. Mario Kart DS
6. Plants vs Zombies
7. LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
8. Super Mario 64 DS
9. Pokémon Conquest
10. Monster High Ghoul Spirit

Busy today. Y'all can do the detective work on numbers.

 

[amrihua]

Nintendo would be in trouble if it weren't for the 3/DS. Microsoft should seriously consider getting into the portable game and Microsoft knows what not to do:

Spoiler

PSP/Vita

 

[Captain Smoker]

Just found this:

(...)

According to NPD Canada, Canadians bought about 81,000 third-party Wii U games between October and December, compared with just 62,000 first-party titles.
Gamers — even early adopting Nintendo loyalists — want third-party blockbusters. Anyone who thinks Nintendo can survive on Mario and Zelda titles alone should think again.

(...)

source: http://business.financialpost.com/2...arty-publishers-spells-big-trouble-for-wii-u/


Doesn't mention hardware sales.


Edit: They say "between October and December", should be November and December.

 

[chertipros]

Just found this:


source: http://business.financialpost.com/2...arty-publishers-spells-big-trouble-for-wii-u/


Doesn't mention hardware sales.


Edit: They say "between October and December", should be November and December.

Those are terrible software sales

 

[donny2112]

Those are terrible software sales

It's Canada. That sort of fits the historical ratio for Canada vs. U.S., unless you're just saying U.S. had terrible software sales for Wii U, so the same ratio in Canada is terrible, too.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Hardware numbers should be around 71.500 and 95.000 units.

Based on a tie-ratio of 2,00 down to 1,50.


Edit: Don't know if the software numbers include the Nintendo Land bundle.

 

[Spiegel]

3DS Full Year 2012

1. Mario Kart 7
2. Super Mario 3D Land
3. New Super Mario Bros. 2
4. Kid Icarus: Uprising
5. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
6. Pokémon Rumble Blast
7. Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance]
8. Sonic Generations
9. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
10. Skylanders Spyro's Adventure

Isn't Angry Birds the best selling third party game on 3DS? It should be in that list.

 

[Shaanyboi]

Nintendo would be in trouble if it weren't for the 3/DS. Microsoft should seriously consider getting into the portable game and Microsoft knows what not to do:

Spoiler

PSP/Vita

They are in the portable game business. They have Windows Phone 7/8 or whatever. For them to go any further than that is a HUUUUUUGE fucking gamble that doesn't show much hope for a return.

 

[Captain Smoker]

So:


Wii U:
USA: 885.000 (Dec '12)
JAP.: 731.739 (20.01.2013)
Fran.: 120.000 (Dec '12)
Can.: ~70.000 - 90.000 (Dec '12)

Total: 1.806.739


Australia, Germany and UK could contribute another 150.000 - 250.000 units.

Rest of the world 50.000 or something like that.


Hardware LTD could be around 2.000.000 to 2.100.000 units worldwide.

 

[donny2112]

Edit: Don't know if the software numbers include the Nintendo Land bundle.

It's Canada's NPD, so most likely not. Most people would just pull the software numbers directly to get a total instead of going to the hardware list to add it all together.

Hardware LTD could be around 2.000.000 to 2.100.000 units worldwide.

Since there will obviously be a lot in the channel at this point + calendar Q1 shipments, probably looking at 4m for Wii U at end of March, which would be a 1.5m miss, unless they adjust their forecasts on Wednesday.

 

[AzaK]

Since there will obviously be a lot in the channel at this point + calendar Q1 shipments, probably looking at 4m for Wii U at end of March, which would be a 1.5m miss, until they adjust their forecasts on Wednesday.

Fixed.

It will really be interesting to see how it is all doing and I'm especially interesting in Europe where it seems to be struggling the most. I assume there will be an investor's Q&A to accompany it, and that's something I'm definitely wanting to read.

 

[jvm]

Updated the TTM 3DS chart. Nintendo changed it on their site, presumably after I emailed NPD for confirmation, after Mpl90 PMed me that it was the same as November.

Updated charts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtXhc02VTSWzdF9VTmpSTUFSektUaG5jS1Yzc3lmN3c#gid=11

 

[donny2112]

Nintendo changed it on their site, presumably after I emailed NPD for confirmation, after Mpl90 PMed me that it was the same as November.

Good to have people checking on each other to keep it all straight. *thumbs up*

 

[Mpl90]

Thanks
The only thing we can say looking at the 3DS TTM Chart is that KI:U should be over 300k by a good amount (i.e. sold better than KH3D that sold better than Sonic: Generations that is higher than 300k)