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[test_account]

Correct. Speculation from the dev kit suggested 8 GB flash memory. Whether it's 8 gigs, less or more... no one knows for sure (and if they do, can't say).

I'm going to say 16 gig, and be really optimistic.

Thanks for the info, i didnt know that. Another thing to look forward to when the unveil the final specs (and retail price and release date)

 

[Seda]

Let's see. KH 358/2 Days obtained to do almost 200k in few days. Then, it had legendary legs, but that's another story. KH Birth by Sleep did 225k in its first month, released on 9th September 2010 (period considered by NPD: Aug 28-Oct 1). So, KH3D first month is in a similar timeframe compared to KHBbs. There will be the revision too this month.

Mmmmh, I'd say a 320k first month would be decent, it's the low bar for the title. More than 400k would be good. It could surprise as well as it's doing in Europe ( more than what we expect, something like 450k, but a 450k first month seems too high as an estimate to me).

That's really optimistic.

 

[Pociask]

Unfortunately, both Rhythm Thief and Heroes of Ruin had bomba written so much, especially Rhythm Thief. No advertising, no pre-release hype. Just Theatrhythm had a bit of pre-release hype but no promotion at all IIRC, and it was always destined to do not good numbers, at least in its debut. I mean, Theatrhythm is a low budget spin-off. Great game, sure, but a low budget spin-off not advertised at all with a good source of revenue coming from DLC. Aaaand probably very low shipments ( on Amazon it's still sold out ) 50k would have been a good first month.

About the 3rd party Western situation, wait for KH as the first convincing seller after Sonic Generations, Skylanders and the various Lego titles. If that doesn't do good, it's time to worry, certainly those aren't the titles which can show 3DS' sales potential.

Theatrhythm - a game in a niche genre targeted at fans of Final Fantasy soundtracks with a name that is incomprehensible and doesn't get across what the game is about. How can it go wrong?!

 

[Father_Brain]

No, I think Sony's strategy was squarely on the Japanese market. They knew that Japan was the land of portables and they had experienced so much success with MonHun that they basically decided to make a system that was going to be the best way to play it. It would be a console on the go with dual-analogs, etc. It would easily outclass Nintendo's system. The Japanese would eat it up. As a mere side benefit, they could finally make decent handheld FPSs for the West.

Unfortunately, somewhere along the line after it was too late to change course, Nintendo made a deal with Capcom for MonHun. I am sure that internally, Sony was devastated, but at that point it was too late to turn back so they went ahead with the Vita plan. I don't think they are terribly surprised at the outcome, TBH. Maybe at the degree of it, but not that they are doing poorly in general. The way they have behaved since Vita's launch reinforces that belief.

I get a similar sense: that Sony assumed they could repeat PSP's third-party success - snagging third-party exclusives by default by virtue of being able to run games that Nintendo's handheld simply couldn't - without actually thinking about whether Japanese third parties were interested in developing handheld software significantly beyond PSP/PS2/3DS levels of graphical fidelity. All indications thus far, of course, are that they aren't.

And my god, I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall at SCE the day they found out about MH3G/4. You could probably write an entire book about all the bad decisions that went into designing, launching, and supporting Vita, but there's no chance we'll ever get the full story, sadly.

 

[Agent X]

Having 2GB of space would be crappy for the digital front anyway. In many cases, that wouldnt even be enough to store one retail game. It would be enough for savegames and a few smaller games, but that is pretty much it. It would be nice for people who arent interested in the digital download stuff, but if you plan to buy much digital download stuff, then 2GB would "force" you to buy an extra memorycard regardless.

In comparison, Nintendo is also trying to get much digital download stuff on the WiiU, yet it comes with 8GB storage (which is probably used for OS as well, meaning that you'd have less than 8GB free). That will be enough for like one retail game. The difference here is that you most likey can use any HDD, but the principle about having to invest extra for extra storage is the same. Same thing here, the 8GB storage is a part of their business model, trying to keep the costs down.

You'll probably see a bundled Vita with memory card sometime in the future.

This might be "water under the bridge" now, but even 1 GB of built-in memory would have been sufficient for games to save their data files. It might not be enough for digital downloads, but anyone who's savvy enough to make use of the PlayStation Store for large downloadable games would likely buy a memory card for that purpose anyway.

The problem is when you've got cartridge games sold at retail that require the user to have a memory card installed. That is what seems to irk a lot of people, even more so than the cost of those cards. That the cards are relatively expensive is one problem--that said cards are required for many games is taking it to a higher level.

Again, no use worrying about it now--what's done is done. However, Sony could make some major strides towards remedying this problem in consumers' eyes if they would simply bundle a small memory card (or a voucher to apply toward a separate memory card) with every Vita sold (not just the 3G capable units).

 

[Pillville]

Assuming a $20 per month plan, that's $480 + the inital $199 for damn-near $700. I'd imagine the typical plan in the US is more like $30-40 a month though, so you'd be looking at something spending a couple of hundred dollars over and above the BIN price upfront by the time you're done paying it up.

That price includes 3G data.
If we add data plan to the Vita's cost (3GB for $30.00 a month for 24 months), that' $720 for data + $299 (3G model) + Memory card, that's over $1000 to get me what the iPhone does for $700.

 

[iammeiam]

Again, no use worrying about it now--what's done is done. However, Sony could make some major strides towards remedying this problem in consumers' eyes if they would simply bundle a small memory card (or a voucher to apply toward a separate memory card) with every Vita sold (not just the 3G capable units).

The decision to remove the 4GB card from the upcoming Madden and Assassin's Creed bundles has got to be one of the most baffling possible moves. There is no way somebody buying a pre packaged game+console bundle is going to react well to getting it home and finding out they need to buy something else in order for the items to work together.

Only way it's not totally crazy is if all Vitas, by that point, include a memory card and so it was removed because it's not an extra thing.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Everyone likes charts right?

Of course, DS, 3DS, Vita and PSP all launched in the spring. Still interesting I think.

 

[test_account]

This might be "water under the bridge" now, but even 1 GB of built-in memory would have been sufficient for games to save their data files. It might not be enough for digital downloads, but anyone who's savvy enough to make use of the PlayStation Store for large downloadable games would likely buy a memory card for that purpose anyway.

The problem is when you've got cartridge games sold at retail that require the user to have a memory card installed. That is what seems to irk a lot of people, even more so than the cost of those cards. That the cards are relatively expensive is one problem--that said cards are required for many games is taking it to a higher level.

Again, no use worrying about it now--what's done is done. However, Sony could make some major strides towards remedying this problem in consumers' eyes if they would simply bundle a small memory card (or a voucher to apply toward a separate memory card) with every Vita sold (not just the 3G capable units).

True, i just adressed the point about Sony betting much on digital download, that 2GB wouldnt be enough for this. For people who dont care about this, 2GB (or even 1GB as you mention) would be enough indeed.

Yeah, i think there is a fair chance that a small memorycard will be bundled with every Vita sometime in the future.

 

[Father_Brain]

Everyone likes charts right?

Do you have GC/DC numbers you could add to that?

 

[MasterSheen]

Everyone likes charts right?

Of course, DS, 3DS, Vita and PSP all launched in the spring. Still interesting I think.

DS launch during the holidays.

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

Everyone likes charts right?

Of course, DS, 3DS, Vita and PSP all launched in the spring. Still interesting I think.

Ahhh, the good ole says when the PSP was beating the DS. Also do you have a chart that goes up to the LTD of the 3DS?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

When a phone costs ~$600 at release, it had damn well better come with storage.

iPod Touch is $180 and does everything the iPhone does except makes calls.

Having 2GB of space would be crappy for the digital front anyway. In many cases, that wouldnt even be enough to store one retail game. It would be enough for savegames and a few smaller games, but that is pretty much it. It would be nice for people who arent interested in the digital download stuff, but if you plan to buy much digital download stuff, then 2GB would "force" you to buy an extra memorycard regardless.

In comparison, Nintendo is also trying to get much digital download stuff on the WiiU, yet it comes with 8GB storage (which is probably used for OS as well, meaning that you'd have less than 8GB free). That will be enough for like one retail game. The difference here is that you most likey can use any HDD, but the principle about having to invest extra for extra storage is the same. Same thing here, the 8GB storage is a part of their business model, trying to keep the costs down.

You'll probably see a bundled Vita with memory card sometime in the future.

You could at least boot games with 2 gigs. The Vita not booting games out of the box looks like a system flaw.

More like the handheld market for a $250+ handheld only existed briefly, in 2005 for the PSP, AKA Little King set to bring the handheld market out of the gutter and into the PS2 glory. Though it was merely built by hype and didn't really exist.

PSP was only $250 in US and EUR due to the forced "value" pack. In Japan where the system sold the most the price at launch was around $190 when converted to USD.

 

[Road]

3DS has beat 360 before, MS don't count handhelds in that little quote though.

The 3DS has never beat the 360.

You're thinking of the DS, which was ahead the last time exactly one year ago.

 

[Miles X]

The 3DS has never beat the 360.

You're thinking of the DS, which was ahead the last time exactly one year ago.

Wow has it not, I find that quite amazing

 

[Mpl90]

Wow has it not, I find that quite amazing

Last December, 3DS and 360 were quite close.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Wow has it not, I find that quite amazing

That should change by this time next month. Kingdom Hearts, Mario and XL will definitely propel the 3DS above any other systems for this month.

 

[test_account]

You could at least boot games with 2 gigs. The Vita not booting games out of the box looks like a system flaw.

True, i just adressed the point about Sony betting much on digital download, that 2GB wouldnt be enough for this. For people who dont care about this, 2GB (or even 1GB as you mention) would be enough indeed.

 

[NateDrake]

True, i just adressed the point about Sony betting much on digital download, that 2GB wouldnt be enough for this. For people who dont care about this, 2GB (or even 1GB as you mention) would be enough indeed.

The problem with going all digital for Vita is if I clear my DL fridge, I lose my save content. It's either buy several memory cards for games, or beat a game and never return to it unless I want to start over again.

 

[test_account]

The problem with going all digital for Vita is if I clear my DL fridge, I lose my save content. It's either buy several memory cards for games, or beat a game and never return to it unless I want to start over again.

You can take backup using the Content Manager software on your PC or Mac, then you get to keep your savegames. I do agree that this is somewhat clunky, it would be much quicker to just backup the savegames themself instead of the whole games, but at least there is a solution at hand if you want to keep your savegame and clear the fridge. Taking backup of the whole game also means that you dont have to redownload it again, so this can be good. I guess that Sony went with this solution after seeing all the savegame exploits on PSP.

 

[A Human Becoming]

DS launch during the holidays.

Despite having bought one at launch, I keep thinking it launched in the spring.

Ahhh, the good ole says when the PSP was beating the DS. Also do you have a chart that goes up to the LTD of the 3DS?

Do you have GC/DC numbers you could add to that?

No DC, but I do have GCN. It would be slightly above 360.

 

[walking fiend]

3DS sales are really lackluster as the DS successor; however, compared to how everything else is going down and that XL being released next month had have a partial adverse effects, there's still some hope

 

[Somnid]

iPod Touch is $180 and does everything the iPhone does except makes calls.

That's a bit of Apple's marketing. There are many things it doesn't quite do or do very well that they simply don't talk about. Found some of it out the hard way.

 

[BassForever]

Despite having bought one at launch, I keep thinking it launched in the spring.

No DC, but I do have GCN. It would be slightly above 360.

It's charts like these that make me wish I wasn't color blind

 

[Saty]

Are they trying to set a record for ZERO npd-sanctioned software numbers for this month?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

That's a bit of Apple's marketing. There are many things it doesn't quite do or do very well that they simply don't talk about. Found some of it out the hard way.

I own an iPod Touch and an iPhone and have never seen a difference between the two. If there is it is too small to matter.

 

[electroplankton]

Let's see. KH 358/2 Days obtained to do almost 200k in few days. Then, it had legendary legs, but that's another story. KH Birth by Sleep did 225k in its first month, released on 9th September 2010 (period considered by NPD: Aug 28-Oct 1). So, KH3D first month is in a similar timeframe compared to KHBbs. There will be the revision too this month.

Mmmmh, I'd say a 320k first month would be decent, it's the low bar for the title. More than 400k would be good. It could surprise as well as it's doing in Europe ( more than what we expect, something like 450k, but a 450k first month seems too high as an estimate to me).

more like 150-200k.

 

[Mpl90]

more like 150-200k.

Too low. It's Kingdom Hearts, after all, a Disney game too. And Disney is pretty strong in US. Remember Epic Mickey?

 

[Daydream Sequence]

I own an iPod Touch and an iPhone and have never seen a difference between the two. If there is it is too small to matter.

Phone has better screen and a better camera, but otherwise it's pretty much the same. 3DS and Vita can't compete with the iOS products in the West. They're just too highly coveted. Who knows how long that will last though. All I know is that none of my family or friends give too many shits about paying 30-40 dollars for handheld games.

 

[electroplankton]

Too low. It's Kingdom Hearts, after all, a Disney game too. And Disney is pretty strong in US. Remember Epic Mickey?

Epic Mickey was released in November on a platform that was still selling nicely, with a huge base.

 

[Plinko]

3DS sales are really lackluster as the DS successor; however, compared to how everything else is going down and that XL being released next month had have a partial adverse effects, there's still some hope

Isn't it outselling the DS at the same timeframe right now?

 

[bill0527]

Ever hear of iCloud?

That's not a storage upgrade.
It's a backup solution.

Yes but at least you'd be able to have somewhere to save your game on day 1 without having to buy something extra.

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

PSP was only $250 in US and EUR due to the forced "value" pack. In Japan where the system sold the most the price at launch was around $190 when converted to USD.

Very true, but it was the only dedicated handheld at the only time that could sustain a $250 price point even it was only for a year. So the idea of now doing $250+ was insane.

Many thanks!

 

[Mpl90]

Isn't it outselling the DS at the same timeframe right now?

Yeah, but DS's first year was bad. So bad that the first two years DS did 6.6 millions, with 4.3 millions in its second year. And yeah, "unfortunately" the PR spin with the comparison between DS and 3DS will continue for many months, since 3DS needs just 1.3 millions in the next 7-8 months to outsell DS's first two years. And well, last year 3DS did 1.6 millions just in December. It needs to do more, much more. And at least, 3DS+DS total gives Nintendo a sort of good basis from which they can move.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Let's see. KH 358/2 Days obtained to do almost 200k in few days. Then, it had legendary legs, but that's another story. KH Birth by Sleep did 225k in its first month, released on 9th September 2010 (period considered by NPD: Aug 28-Oct 1). So, KH3D first month is in a similar timeframe compared to KHBbs. There will be the revision too this month.

Mmmmh, I'd say a 320k first month would be decent, it's the low bar for the title. More than 400k would be good. It could surprise as well as it's doing in Europe ( more than what we expect, something like 450k, but a 450k first month seems too high as an estimate to me).

Too high.

And what about the early launch at Nintendo World?

 

[Mpl90]

Too high.

And what about the early launch at Nintendo World?

320k is too high for a main Kingdom Hearts on an handheld which isn't dead softwarewise as PSP was? That's the low bar for saying it's decent, 450k is a dream though, I admit it About the Nintendo World launch...it's just one store, after all XD

 

[Daydream Sequence]

320k is too high for a main Kingdom Hearts on an handheld which isn't dead softwarewise as PSP was? That's the low bar for saying it's decent, 450k is a dream though, I admit it About the Nintendo World launch...it's just one store, after all XD

You're dreaming if you think it's going to launch at 320k.

 

[Gospel]

320k is too high for a main Kingdom Hearts on an handheld which isn't dead softwarewise as PSP was? That's the low bar for saying it's decent, 450k is a dream though, I admit it About the Nintendo World launch...it's just one store, after all XD

Franchise decline taking its toll on US sales is also a very real possibility.

 

[metalslimer]

Sorry the 3DS is not in a position for Kingdom Hearts to even do 250k imo. Not to mention the series has just been thrown out on so many platforms that the entire series does not look good. I'm thinking in between 150-200k.

 

[hatchx]

320k is too high for a main Kingdom Hearts on an handheld which isn't dead softwarewise as PSP was? That's the low bar for saying it's decent, 450k is a dream though, I admit it About the Nintendo World launch...it's just one store, after all XD

I'm not sure how we are judging KH3D, but it only had a couple days in July NPD anyways.

I would expect somewhere in the 200k range. The game didn't review amazingly and it's a tired franchise.

 

[MasterSheen]

I'm not sure how we are judging KH3D, but it only had a couple days in July NPD anyways.

I would expect somewhere in the 200k range. The game didn't review amazingly and it's a tired franchise.

KH3D wasn't counted in this NPD at all. It will have a whole month of sales, so I'm thinking maybe 250k.

 

[Dalthien]

Looking at the Vita number...

Gamecube didn't fall this low until Apr/06 - only half-a-year away from being replaced by the Wii, and after the 360 had already been on the market for half-a-year, and long after all support had dried up for the system.

 

[Plinko]

Franchise decline taking its toll on US sales is also a very real possibility.

This. I'm going to go low--probably under 150k.

 

[Santiako]

KHDDD will be lucky if it reaches 150k.

 

[Kusagari]

It's questionable if the 3DS has the install base to give DDD a good debut. Even the PSP had a huge install base when BBS came out.

I really wouldn't be surprised with it debuting under 150k.

 

[Yoshi]

It's charts like these that make me wish I wasn't color blind

At the end of the chart in order of the heigth of the systems it goes:
Wii
3DS
360
PSP
DS
PS3

I think that should suffice to understand the chart?

 

[mclem]

I, too, have an imaginary list of games which could save the Vita. Also if Nintendo creates a new Wii Fit-like sensation the new Wii U system could be very popular.

I think if Tiger Electronic were to release a new VR home console with an exclusive sequel to Operation Winback, it could well dominate the marketplace.

 

[Mileena]

KHDDD will be lucky if it reaches 150k.

Hopefully.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I think 200k for KH3D would be great. Re:Coded megabombed, the franchise just isn't what it used to be. Also retailers are still gunshy on 3rd party 3DS orders, though maybe stuff like Sonic, Skylanders and Lego doing so well over the long haul will make them a little less resistent now?

 

[frankie_baby]

I think if Tiger Electronic were to release a new VR home console with an exclusive sequel to Operation Winback, it could well dominate the marketplace.

Even that would sell better than vita