Support NeoGAF

[Effect]

Should we be panicking, doomsaying, worrying, etc with only three weeks in the can overall? Especially since Nintendo and even publishers seemingly hasn't gone crazy with advertisement and other various forms of promotions themselves?

Edit: They know what a launch is like I would assume. They also know what the economic climate is like and what potential sales are. Are they prepared for the long term or are only looking in the short term?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

umm God of war 1 did 4.5 million+ god of war 2 sold over 4 million and god of war 3 sold over 5 million.

I believe those numbers are accurate.

In NPD?

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

In NPD?

worldwide. Does NPD matter more? Either way, it isn't Halo numbers or bust. Would be nice to have that. But just isn't a reasonable expectation.

 

[SniperHunter]

I just don't see why you would think it's possible for Last of us to do 3+ million or even 2+ million at PS4 launch.... Unless you're saying wait till the PS4 has a base and THEN release it, then that just makes no sense. Also just because Sony is releasing Beyond and Last of Us doesn't mean they've ceased making new IPs. I'm sure there are some cooking for PS4. And I'm sure even the big names like Naughty Dog will get around to making another new one.

I doubt any of their new PS4 ip's will be as good as the Last of Us...Naughty Dog is Sony finest developer at this point. I don't expect any other studio to match their output. And that's why I said it's an lost opportunity. Did Xbox have a base when MS released Halo, did 360 have a base when MS release Gears? Ha....

yea yea sure ND will get around to making another one and it will launch on PS4 in 2015 or 2016....hahah this is so stupid

anyway I am outta here.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

worldwide. Does NPD matter more? Either way, it isn't Halo numbers or bust. Would be nice to have that. But just isn't a reasonable expectation.

In an NPD thread? Yes, it matters more.

 

[Sobriquet]

Well if you look at context of my post, I was talking about establishing new IP's for new systems...IMO Sony still doesn't have a Halo or a Gears of War. Last of Us would have fitted in that void perfectly, but Sony chose to launch it for PS3.....Sony needs a Halo, Sony needs a Gears of War, a game that sells 3 million during the first month in the NPD. I am just saying Last of US is a lost opportunity, it could have been the killer app gamers look for during system launches.

The Last of Us is not that game.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

I doubt any of their new PS4 ip's will be as good as the Last of Us...Naughty Dog is Sony finest developer at this point. I don't expect any other studio to match their output. And that's why I said it's an lost opportunity. Did Xbox have a base when MS released Halo, did 360 have a base when MS release Gears? Ha....

yea yea sure ND will get around to making another one and it will launch on PS4 in 2015 or 2016....hahah this is so stupid

anyway I am outta here.

sony is taking the safe money. It's not a bad decision. Your decision is a hope and a prayer. Also who knows what kinds of hits sony is going to take when PS4 launches pricing wise, they could use some safe money. I think you think Last of Us has universal appeal, which it likely does not.

 

[metalslimer]

In an NPD thread? Yes, it matters more.

Until someone makes a WW sales thread, there are always going to be side conversations about WW numbers. I really don't understand your obsession with keeping discussion strictly about NPD numbers especially with the complete lack of NPD numbers now. Until that thread is made NPD threads will continue to be pseudo WW threads.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Until someone makes a WW sales thread, there are always going to be side conversations about WW numbers. I really don't understand your obsession with keeping discussion strictly about NPD numbers especially with the complete lack of NPD numbers now.

exactly. Sales-age is sales-age. NPD just gets the discussion moving.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Until someone makes a WW sales thread, there are always going to be side conversations about WW numbers. I really don't understand your obsession with keeping discussion strictly about NPD numbers especially with the complete lack of NPD numbers now.

It doesn't seem to happen in MediaCreate threads.

 

[metalslimer]

It doesn't seem to happen in MediaCreate threads.

It does. We discuss how a certain game's performance in Japan will impact it going to America or a company's position worldwide all the time. It also helps we have so much more info there. If we only could discuss NPD numbers specifically with how little we know these threads would be dead in 2 pages. NPD is just a general sales age topic place now.

 

[AniHawk]

with nintendo publishing rayman legends in japan, i think they're giving it some heavy support. i hope it does really well. it could fill that vacant platformer slot just after launch that sonic used to take up.

 

[Conflict NZ]

Microsoft isn't as healthy as it might seem. While they have had impressive life the gap between systems if probably going to be a problem next year. Hardware sales are declining, perennial blockbusters like Halo and CoD look to be reaching inflection points even before next-gen. It's a little naive to think they'll just waltz into next-gen with a tailwind. It didn't happen for 360, PS3, 3DS, PSP or Vita and some of those had far bigger predecessors. It's not looking terribly likely for Wii U. They will likely struggle through that first year, software starved like most consoles do. They will have launch blues, glitches and probably high prices and up-ported MW4 probably won't sell that many systems. They should be thankful for what they have but they need next(this)-gen just as badly as anyone.

I think the Ubisoft president was right when he said that Microsoft and Sony are damaging gaming by extending the generation too long. New Generations hide the fact that pretty much every major game is the same and when people begin to see that they get fatigued and lose interest in gaming. Microsoft and Sony may have actually shrunk the market size by carrying on so long, you can see it in the massively decreasing sales of games.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

It does. We discuss how a certain game's performance in Japan will impact it going to America or a company's position worldwide all the time. It also helps we have so much more info there. If we only could discuss NPD numbers specifically with how little we know these threads would be dead in 2 pages. NPD is just a general sales age topic place now.

I never see someone mention sales in an a MediaCreate thread without stating they are worldwide. The thing with these threads is that people post random numbers and it should be assumed they are US because of the topic of the thread but they are never clarified if they are worldwide, Japan, US, Europe or what. It's just "this game sold this"

People should assume based on the thread that unless noted otherwise all numbers mentioned are US.

 

[michaelius]

exactly. Sales-age is sales-age. NPD just gets the discussion moving.

I always felt lack of reliable regular Europe numbers is creating a lot of false opinions.

 

[Cosmozone]

But Wii U software sales "was abysmal, only Super Mario sold any meaningful units." - From the OP.

That's the quote from Pachter. Abysmal and not "meaningful" aren't the words you'd apply to a game that sold that much. I'm guessing it's much lower.

Probably, since there are many posts like "Is it any good?" or similar things. But having to guess such things is less fun. :-(

 

[kinggroin]

....a sequel to an established IP?

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

....a sequel to an established IP?

that's part 1

I always felt lack of reliable regular Europe numbers is creating a lot of false opinions.

well, numbers I used are from sony

 

[metalslimer]

I never see someone mention sales in an a MediaCreate thread without stating they are worldwide. The thing with these threads is that people post random numbers and it should be assumed they are US because of the topic of the thread but they are never clarified if they are worldwide, Japan, US, Europe or what. It's just "this game sold this"

People should assume based on the thread that unless noted otherwise all numbers mentioned are US.

Oh well sure, I do agree numbers should be stated for specific regions, but it's becoming increasingly harder to get a good numbers for games specifically in NA and Europe because all we get is WW shipped and NPD has cut us off. I was speaking in a more general sense.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

it's funny because ubisoft is all in on their support and it would be sad for them if zombi u AND rayman flopped horribly. 1 down 1 to go I guess.

Considering we only have one week of sales data that is presumably not so hot for third party titles, I think it is too early to say anything flopped, especially ZombiU. I'm sure reviews scared off a number of potential buyers during launch week, but positive word of mouth through Miiverse and gaming forums might have won some of them back over. Hopefully we will have some concrete software numbers by January and we can make a better verdict off of that. But yes, not sounding to hot right now.

I fear for Rayman Legends. Of course that will probably be ported to PS3/360 a few months down the line. So will Zombi U as well. If Nintendo can't prove their system is worth developing for now they will be shut out by the end of next year.

Considering how poorly Origins did across the board, I think Legends will actually benefit from being a WiiU exclusive, especially with Nintendo strongly behind it along with being more in line with titles that do well on Nintendo platforms. I do think it was wise now for both Legends and Lego City Undercover to not be present at launch. It seems that the majority of people were perfectly fine with walking out with a Deluxe and NSMBU during launch week.

 

[Mpl90]

Oh well sure, I do agree numbers should be stated for specific regions, but it's becoming increasingly harder to get a good numbers for games specifically in NA and Europe because all we get is WW shipped and NPD has cut us off. I was speaking in a more general sense.

It's ironic we must wait for Nintendo's investor meetings in order to have infos about the state of the market outside Japan.

And the most absurd thing is that we actually have more infos from Europe ( weekly sales) than US ( just averages per month which can't represent what really happened during the months considered).

 

[Mrbob]

all their new ip's bombed this year...

starhawk = failure
ps all stars = failure
lbp karting = failure
wonderbook = failure
all PSVita new ips = failure

I guess the only sucess they had this year was journey and even that didn't do too well.

Last of Us and beyond will need to sell a lot to break even...I am not sure that's possible given the current condition of PS3.

Last of Us will be fine. Naughty Dog is established, and a market is already there through Uncharted.

I think Sony's issue is they thought they could sell kid friendly games without having a kid friendly hardware price. The cheapest PS3 is still $249 (barring one day $199 special). PS3 should really be $199 standard, if not $149, by this point.

 

[AniHawk]

Last of Us will be fine. Naughty Dog is established, and a market is already there through Uncharted.

I think Sony's issue is they thought they could sell kid friendly games without having a kid friendly hardware price. The cheapest PS3 is still $249 (barring one day $199 special). PS3 should really be $199 standard, if not $149, by this point.

ps3 should really be $129.99 at this point. the xbox 360 should be $99.99. the wii should be $49.99 or $79.99

 

[OldJadedGamer]

ps3 should really be $129.99 at this point. the xbox 360 should be $99.99. the wii should be $49.99 or $79.99

Remember the PS2 took 9 years to reach $99 but 360 should be lower than $199. That is a fact.

 

[Future PhaZe]

ps3 should really be $129.99 at this point. the xbox 360 should be $99.99. the wii should be $49.99 or $79.99

You don't have to look hard to find Wii's at those prices.

360 has good deals pretty regularly now also.

Ps3 is always wayyy overpriced though. It's pretty crazy. I probably won't get one until they slash the price again in preparation for Orbis.

 

[ohlawd]

"A bit less"? Would love to know your definition of 'a bit' and where you heard that from.

I'd say its more like 'a gulf,' personally.

It's a sad situation, to be honest. Be happy to look at some people's guesses for titles, but I'm betting no one is going to come close, which I think really is the noteworthy story here. Which makes me sad. I personally really like this system and see its potential, but I worry that no ones buying games for it

And ZombiU is 2nd on that Wii U software list. ah mah gawd. I have yet to get a Wii U and ZombiU though and I can't wait to contribute but still... very depressing to read.

 

[IdreamofHIME]

Those AC3 numbers are mindblowing. Great marketing job for sure, but the storyline is so convoluted I feel sorry for those who maybe bought the game without knowing about the animus and Desmond.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

The console market will be fine. I doubt we'll see serious trouble till the very tail end of next-gen, but for the next 5+ years it'll probably be fine. Handheld market is another story -- I think it'll last another two years.

 

[Mpl90]

Handheld market is another story -- I think it'll last another two years.

You'll see another Nintendo handheld, you shouldn't even doubt it. But I don't know about Sony, at this point.

 

[Lyude77]

And ZombiU is 2nd on that Wii U software list. ah mah gawd. I have yet to get a Wii U and ZombiU though and I can't wait to contribute but still... very depressing to read.

To be honest, I wouldn't call even 143k "a bit lower" than 243k. Zombi U could easily be around 60k, which wouldn't be awful (though everything else below it would be).

 

[Skiesofwonder]

You'll see another Nintendo handheld, you shouldn't even doubt it. But I don't know about Sony, at this point.

I fully believe we will see a console-handheld hybrid from Nintendo next-generation.

 

[Nealand Liquor]

Those AC3 numbers are mindblowing. Great marketing job for sure, but the storyline is so convoluted I feel sorry for those who maybe bought the game without knowing about the animus and Desmond.

At this stage in the series if someone is finally jumping on board it's their own fault for not being able to follow story (even if the story is the shits) I mean why on earth would someone puck up 3 before at least grabbing 2 for dirt cheap. It's like someone going to Return of the King and not understanding what the fellowship is.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

At this stage in the series if someone is finally jumping on board it's their own fault for not being able to follow story (even if the story is the shits) I mean why on earth would someone puck up 3 before at least grabbing 2 for dirt cheap. It's like someone going to Return of the King and not understanding what the fellowship is.

I picked up three after giving up on both 1 and 2 just because of the setting. So far I am enjoying AC3 more, even with not having a clue about what is going on.

 

[Huff]

I fully believe we will see a console-handheld hybrid from Nintendo next-generation.

and limit their revenue by half?

 

[Sean]

Should we be panicking, doomsaying, worrying, etc with only three weeks in the can overall? Especially since Nintendo and even publishers seemingly hasn't gone crazy with advertisement and other various forms of promotions themselves?

Edit: They know what a launch is like I would assume. They also know what the economic climate is like and what potential sales are. Are they prepared for the long term or are only looking in the short term?

I think it's a bit worrying. So far the Wii U seems to be playing out exactly like the previous couple of Nintendo consoles with third parties fighting for table scraps. I don't think that's going to change.

If you're a third party publisher looking at these Wii U software results, it's not such an encouraging sign to see the two biggest franchises in gaming right now (CoD and AC) struggling on the platform. On the 360 for example I'm pretty sure CoD2 was the first title to sell a million units in the US.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

To be honest, I wouldn't call even 143k "a bit lower" than 243k. Zombi U could easily be around 60k, which wouldn't be awful (though everything else below it would be).

As somebody earlier in the thread noted, everything on the low end of that list could be separated by very few units

Spoiler

because everything except Mario bombed hard?

such that the ranking differences are merely statistical noise.

I think it's a bit worrying. So far the Wii U seems to be playing out exactly like the previous couple of Nintendo consoles with third parties fighting for table scraps. I don't think that's going to change.

If you're a third party publisher looking at these Wii U software results, it's not such an encouraging sign to see the two biggest franchises in gaming right now (CoD and AC) struggling on the platform. On the 360 for example I'm pretty sure CoD2 was the first title to sell a million units in the US.

Which raises the question: if Mario wasn't a launch game, would 3rd party launch games have performed better and would that increase be worth the X fewer hardware units sold because a Mario game wasn't around to entice consumers into buying a Wii U at launch?

 

[Stoffinator]

Last of Us will be fine. Naughty Dog is established, and a market is already there through Uncharted.

I think Sony's issue is they thought they could sell kid friendly games without having a kid friendly hardware price. The cheapest PS3 is still $249 (barring one day $199 special). PS3 should really be $199 standard, if not $149, by this point.

Exactly! I think this is the reason as to why sales are so low. The biggest reasons is the consoles are old and still marked so high. Sony and Microsoft try to make a "better" deal by keeping the price high and throwing in one or two games. But people still see that $200+ price tag.

 

[Lime]

I wonder if the EU sales of AC3 have been lower than previous entries due to the American setting.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

all their new ip's bombed this year...

starhawk = failure
ps all stars = failure
lbp karting = failure
wonderbook = failure
all PSVita new ips = failure

I guess the only sucess they had this year was journey and even that didn't do too well.

Last of Us and beyond will need to sell a lot to break even...I am not sure that's possible given the current condition of PS3.

Journey broke download records on PSN.

And seriously, how can you pretend to know how much a game title needs to sell to break even? Do you know the development cost of either game? Neither are even finished yet.

Just WTF at your posts in this thread.

 

[Huff]

Journey broke download records on PSN.

And seriously, how can you pretend to know how much a game title needs to sell to break even? Do you know the development cost of either game? Neither are even finished yet.

Just WTF at your posts in this thread.

well we definitely know starhawk was a bust based on the studio having to switch to mobile games

 

[Freezie KO]

and limit their revenue by half?

They make their money off software, and they're effectively combining their userbases, while also being able to focus all their development effort on a single platform, thereby making that platform exponentially more attractive given the law that software sells hardware.

Nintendo hybrid. Book it.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

well we definitely know starhawk was a bust based on the studio having to switch to mobile games

I'm talking about him saying that the Last of Us and Beyond needing to sell a lot to break even, not any of the games he listed before that. There's practically no doubt in my mind that the Last of Us will be a success, there's been a ton of hype for it. Who knows about Beyond, but it will probably sell as least as well as Heavy Rain.

 

[Conflict NZ]

And the numbers we got for Black Friday week

PlayStation Vita: 160k
PlayStation 3: 525k

These numbers included Canada btw.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

You'll see another Nintendo handheld, you shouldn't even doubt it. But I don't know about Sony, at this point.

We'll probably see another but I think it'll be effectively DoA. Sony is done with handhelds, no need to even speculate on that.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

We'll probably see another but I think it'll be effectively DoA. Sony is done with handhelds, no need to even speculate on that.

We'll be lucky if the Vita isn't discontinued within a year. Sony's definitely not making another handheld after this.

 

[John Harker]

I guess Heavy was right about Zombi U bombing. I'm very surprised.

Hold on, I didn't say Zombi U bombed. It's all about attach rates. Did it do as well as Red Steel? Well, no... not by half, but in terms of attach rates, it's still quiet good. It's a shame it didn't do better though, because it's a great game. Hopefully it has a good tail. But it's not a flop.

Though like 60% of launch titles didn't do 5 digits... and that's the big ouch (in my opinion)

 

[jcm]

and limit their revenue by half?

Hardware margins suck. Platform royalties and software are where the profits come from.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

We'll be lucky if the Vita isn't discontinued within a year. Sony's definitely not making another handheld after this.

One of those things is true, one is not.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

So what are we estimating PS3 hardware to be? 650-700k?

 

[kinggroin]

One of those things is true, one is not.

Oh man, which is which!?