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[StevieP]

I don't know if Treyarch has fired their Nintendo cod team... So I wouldn't yet make assumptions about cod. There's a very good reason why nintendo's cod ports have just sorta been dropped off unannounced and I'm pretty sure it's got something to do with hats. Hats with percentages attached to them that get dipped from regular revenue sources.

If anyone wants to dig around Treyarch's Nintendo team you may find out whether it's coming this year or not. Activision did and will continue to deny its existence until after it's on shelves if it's slated.

 

[Aquamarine]

I don't know if Treyarch has fired their Nintendo cod team... So I wouldn't yet make assumptions about cod. There's a very good reason why nintendo's cod ports have just sorta been dropped off unannounced and I'm pretty sure it's got something to do with hats. Hats with percentages attached to them that get dipped from regular revenue sources.

If anyone wants to dig around Treyarch's Nintendo team you may find out whether it's coming this year or not. Activision did and will continue to deny its existence until after it's on shelves if it's slated.

Here is a screenshot of the development team from Call of Duty: Ghosts's credits:

 

[impact]

I don't know if Treyarch has fired their Nintendo cod team... So I wouldn't yet make assumptions about cod. There's a very good reason why nintendo's cod ports have just sorta been dropped off unannounced and I'm pretty sure it's got something to do with hats. Hats with percentages attached to them that get dipped from regular revenue sources.

If anyone wants to dig around Treyarch's Nintendo team you may find out whether it's coming this year or not. Activision did and will continue to deny its existence until after it's on shelves if it's slated.

Sony and MS both so scared of CoD WiiU they had to join forces and moneyhat Bobby to keep quiet. Right.

 

[boredandlazy]

I don't know if Treyarch has fired their Nintendo cod team... So I wouldn't yet make assumptions about cod. There's a very good reason why nintendo's cod ports have just sorta been dropped off unannounced and I'm pretty sure it's got something to do with hats. Hats with percentages attached to them that get dipped from regular revenue sources.

If anyone wants to dig around Treyarch's Nintendo team you may find out whether it's coming this year or not. Activision did and will continue to deny its existence until after it's on shelves if it's slated.

Yep, because of all those people who'd choose the WiiU version over the PS4/XBOne version. A carton of beer each from Sony and Microsoft could cover the cost.

 

[dolemite]

Not having the early rotating titles (sports, shooters, etc.) on WiiU is ... death.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Yep, because of all those people who'd choose the WiiU version over the PS4/XBOne version. A carton of beer each from Sony and Microsoft could cover the cost.

Damn lol

What a ludicrous idea that MS and Sony would pay Activision to prevent COD coming to the WiiU.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Damn lol

What a ludicrous idea that MS and Sony would pay Activision to prevent COD coming to the WiiU.

They don't, but anyone who has watched CoD releases over the last - what, 5-6 years? - can see the pattern with CoD releases on Nintendo consoles. They just don't really get talked about much, promoted or given any kind of push, and this has been going on since the Wii ports were handily selling a million or so, so it's not a Wii U-specific thing.

When the first in-game screenshots of a CoD title come from the in-store pictures of the game cover, or even just the existence of a port takes ages to be acknowledged, you can see what the situation is like.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I don't think the implication is that they're paying anything to keep COD off the Wii U.

It's that Activision are receiving some portion of Live revenues, which Bobby Kotick has commented on in an interview iirc, in addition to already selling much more on the Xbox platforms anyway, so the Wii U is of bare minimal priority. Now that PSN is also paid perhaps likewise for the PS versions.

Or alternatively, that should the percentage be dependent upon the number of sales, for instance, that Activision has a reason to actually actively dissuade Wii U SKU purchases and steer people with multiple systems towards the other SKUs.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Do you mean from a Nintendo first party perspective?

On the other platforms we already have announcements stretching into 2016.

Don't ask me to explain Nintendos release announcement strategy, but we've had CoD go unannounced until it was basically on the shelves last year, watch_dogs repreatedly assumed to be cancelled due to lack of news this year, and things like a vast wave of DS titles not even announced but just listed on a release page on their website at a prior E3s.

From that, I don't see how anyone would expect titles known about to consist of the entirety of this years release schedule (or as some people here are claiming the entirety of the consoles lifespan release schedule).

Shit, going from Nintendos previous E3s I still wouldn't rule out titles just appearing at retail that aren't explicitly mentioned at E3 either by themselves or partners. Nintendo still apparently have decent relations with Warner, Disney, Activision and Ubisoft so I wouldn't be as quick to declare absence of evidence as evidence of absence for titles from those publishers that haven't been confirmed as Xbone / Ps4 / PC only.

EDIT:

I wouldn't be too quick in assuming the system will even continue to enjoy particularly strong first party support that far into the future. Assuming Nintendo learned anything from the Wii-U and 3DS launches - which I admit, is almost as big an assumption as the one you're making - they're going to be pulling teams into development for whatever successor system they're prepping much earlier than they did for the Wii-U, and in greater numbers.

Avoiding a "games drought" for launch year requires development of games starting well before launch. You're likely to see a mass exodus of Nintendo development from the Wii-U even earlier than you did the Wii, now that they've grasped the turnaround time on modern development cycles. It's not only strategically sound, it's fiscally sensible, given that the small install base prevents them from making the sort of profit margins on software that normally keeps them churning out games for a system well through its life cycle.

Between that and the unprecedented lack of third party partnership, Wii-U releases are likely to fall off a cliff in a way we've honestly never seen before.

I expect to see 3DS titles drying up next year as Nintendo start to prepare for their next platform, not WiiU teams.

 

[Effer]

This guy is driving Nintendo right off a cliff.

I think he had an minor stroke from too much excitement in 2009 or so. If you notice in Nintendo Directs the left side of his face droops a bit.

 

[hepburn3d]

Excited for May NPD Predictions. Is going to be a hard one I think

 

[Aquamarine]

Excited for May NPD Predictions. Is going to a hard one I think

PS4 > Wii U > Xbox One


There's an easy one for you.

 

[AniHawk]

PS4 > Wii U > Xbox One


There's an easy one for you.

but will wii u also > 3ds?

 

[Throwaway123456789]

I don't know if Treyarch has fired their Nintendo cod team... So I wouldn't yet make assumptions about cod. There's a very good reason why nintendo's cod ports have just sorta been dropped off unannounced and I'm pretty sure it's got something to do with hats. Hats with percentages attached to them that get dipped from regular revenue sources.

If anyone wants to dig around Treyarch's Nintendo team you may find out whether it's coming this year or not. Activision did and will continue to deny its existence until after it's on shelves if it's slated.

I visited Treyarch a few weeks before Black Ops II was revealed, and they're the biggest bunch of Nintendo fanboys I've seen. Around the Wii days, they were pretty much fighting over who could be on the port teams, and they've done a pretty damn awesome job on the Wii U.

The whole Nintendo situation is dire though, and I can't really blame Activision for pulling support from the console.

 

[Mike Works]

I realize that's probably the character's actual design, but it's hilarious how bored that black bird looks.

 

[hepburn3d]

PS4 > Wii U > Xbox One


There's an easy one for you.

Sorry I mean the numbers are going to be hard:

190k > 110k > 70k ???

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Sorry I mean the numbers are going to be hard:

190k > 110k > 70k ???

270k > 250k > 140k > 80k

Just a wild guess.

 

[dolemite]

Mario Kart is only out for two days. I don't think the sales will be that spiked to overcome the 100k barrier in just two days.

 

[jroc74]

Seen an article recently that had US numbers for last month and this month. Forgive me if this has already been posted....but based on last month n this month.....the XBO is having a bigger decline month to month vs the PS4.

Sell less and having a bigger decline in sales ? That has to scare the hell out of MS to see that. I have been trying to see the decline month to month for both since they launched....hard for me to find. I would be willing to bet the XBO having the bigger decline is probably since they launched.

 

[RiggyRob]

Mario Kart is only out for two days. I don't think the sales will be that spiked to overcome the 100k barrier in just two days.

Depends on how many preorders are fulfilled within those two days. Plus people might buy Wii Us just in anticipation of Mario Kart 8 releasing.

My guess for this month would be Wii U is above XB1 but below 100K (just). Obviously I'm hoping it will be more but I don't see it happening this month.

 

[spekkeh]

Wii U has a 2.35 million LTD (sell-through to consumers in the USA) as of May 3rd, 2014.

Wii U has a 2.81 million LTD (shipments to retailers in North + South America) as of March 31st, 2014.



Wii U has a 1.73 million LTD (sell-through to consumers in Japan) as of May 11th, 2014.

Wii U has a 1.81 million LTD (shipments to retailers in Japan) as of March 31st, 2014.



Exact GfK / NPD sell-through to consumer data for Europe + Australia + Other hasn't been leaked at this time. Only some occasional regional data.

Wii U has a 1.56 million LTD (shipments to retailers in Europe + Australia + Other) as of March 31st, 2014.



Wii U has a 6.17 million LTD (shipments to retailers worldwide) as of March 31st, 2014.

Thanks!

Probably misread something somewhere then. That does mean that Wii U likely only barely surpassed 5M.
Still well more than Xbone of course.

 

[Aquamarine]

I visited Treyarch a few weeks before Black Ops II was revealed, and they're the biggest bunch of Nintendo fanboys I've seen. Around the Wii days, they were pretty much fighting over who could be on the port teams, and they've done a pretty damn awesome job on the Wii U.

The whole Nintendo situation is dire though, and I can't really blame Activision for pulling support from the console.

You should visit them again and see if they're actually working on / planning on a Wii U port for Advanced Warfare.

 

[x-Lundz-x]

PS4 > Wii U > Xbox One


There's an easy one for you.

Man, WiiU outselling XB1 would be crazy but not out of the question. I guess the question is how low will sales really go for the XB1 with people waiting on the new SKU. Sub 50k?

 

[theprodigy]

270k > 250k > 140k > 80k

Just a wild guess.

what is 250k supposed to correspond to

 

[Tripon]

Did we get Kinect Sports Rivals sales figures?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

what is 250k supposed to correspond to

WiiU lol

I didn't realise MK was only out for 2 days.

Scratch that to 140k

 

[Aquamarine]

Did we get Kinect Sports Rivals sales figures?

Whatever it is, it's lower than Infamous: Second Son (82K), so we can suspect it didn't do all that well for a 150-man major project...

 

[ethomaz]

Did we get Kinect Sports Rivals sales figures?

MS will make Kinect optional... take a guess.

I just wish Rare make games again in the future... a new Banjo is a good start.

 

[x-Lundz-x]

Whatever it is, it's lower than Infamous: Second Son (82K), so we can suspect it didn't do all that well for a 150-man major project...

I hope whatever the total WW sales numbers are for Infamous it's enough to keep Sucker Punch going on a new game. I thought it was amazing, too bad it fell off the cliff sales wise.

 

[ethomaz]

I hope whatever the total WW sales numbers are for Infamous it's enough to keep Sucker Punch going on a new game. I thought it was amazing, too bad it fell off the cliff sales wise.

It is already the fastest selling inFAMOUS and broke 1 million in less than 2 weeks.

It is a fair assumption the game exceeded the expectations.

 

[Bgamer90]

Man, WiiU outselling XB1 would be crazy but not out of the question. I guess the question is how low will sales really go for the XB1 with people waiting on the new SKU. Sub 50k?

I'm definitely thinking sub 100k but I don't know about sub 50k. Sub 50k would surprise me.

 

[Aquamarine]

I'm definitely thinking sub 100k but I don't know about sub 50k. Sub 50k would surprise me.

I agree. I expect sales to be halved (110K -> 60K) next month, but anything lower would be a real shocker.

 

[mrpeabody]

Don't ask me to explain Nintendos release announcement strategy, but we've had CoD go unannounced until it was basically on the shelves last year, watch_dogs repreatedly assumed to be cancelled due to lack of news this year, and things like a vast wave of DS titles not even announced but just listed on a release page on their website at a prior E3s.

From that, I don't see how anyone would expect titles known about to consist of the entirety of this years release schedule (or as some people here are claiming the entirety of the consoles lifespan release schedule).

Shit, going from Nintendos previous E3s I still wouldn't rule out titles just appearing at retail that aren't explicitly mentioned at E3 either by themselves or partners. Nintendo still apparently have decent relations with Warner, Disney, Activision and Ubisoft so I wouldn't be as quick to declare absence of evidence as evidence of absence for titles from those publishers that haven't been confirmed as Xbone / Ps4 / PC only.

I disagree. If it wasn't announced for Wii U, it's not coming for Wii U (with the possible exception of COD due to its weird history). You aren't suddenly going to see announcements in mid-summer like "oh, hey, we decided to port Madden/Batman/Far Cry to Nintendo's machine".

There will be more new games announced at E3, and given how publishers are pulling away from the system, I would say the chances of new core games getting Wii U ports are very very low.

Nintendo might have more first-party surprises up its sleeve, though, and for sure there will be more ~indie game~ announcements. Maybe even the one indie game that matters!

 

[Unknown One]

It is already the fastest selling inFAMOUS and broke 1 million in less than 2 weeks.

It is a fair assumption the game exceeded the expectations.

Infamous as a series is a 1-3 million seller. It did pretty damn well.

 

[ethomaz]

I agree. I expect sales to be halved (110K -> 60K) next month, but anything lower would be a real shocker.

May is 5 weeks, no? If so then I guess it will be over 100k yet.

 

[stilgar]

In terms of hardcore titles...we could potentially see:

1) No more Arkham games

2) No more Call of Duty games

3) No more Assassin's Creed games


...as a very real reality for Nintendo hardcore retail support this holiday season.

But it's not just the hardcore tentpole titles that have fallen off a cliff. The Wii U third-party retail environment is...very small at the moment.



List of Wii U retail games released in the first five months of 2014 in the USA:

That is the grand total of five months of retail releases.

Activision with shovelware, Nintendo with core games, and Warner Bros. with LEGO. That's it.



Compare this with five months of GameCube releases at its equivalent year in the USA retail market:


I know the retail market has changed significantly since 2003. But it serves to highlight just how far Nintendo has fallen / how barren the current Wii U retail market is. Nintendo is lucky they have the eShop and all of those indies signed on board, otherwise the sheer lack of retail content for Wii U alone would be quite frightening.

This is so depressing.

 

[Aquamarine]

May is 5 weeks, no? If so then I guess it will be over 100k yet.

Nope, May is 4 weeks, just like April.

 

[ethomaz]

Nope, May is 4 weeks, just like April.

Sub-100k for sure.

 

[prag16]

For may, I'd say PS4 > WiiU/3DS (close I think) > xbone/360 (close as well) > PS3.

Below 50k would be surprising, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. 60-80k sounds more reasonable. It think this rebundling/unbundling (it's NOT a price drop) will have less effect than they want it to, but we'll see what they pull out of the hat at E3.

I disagree. If it wasn't announced for Wii U, it's not coming for Wii U (with the possible exception of COD due to its weird history). You aren't suddenly going to see announcements in mid-summer like "oh, hey, we decided to port Madden/Batman/Far Cry to Nintendo's machine".

There will be more new games announced at E3, and given how publishers are pulling away from the system, I would say the chances of new core games getting Wii U ports are very very low.

Nintendo might have more first-party surprises up its sleeve, though, and for sure there will be more ~indie game~ announcements. Maybe even the one indie game that matters!

For games that have been announced for PS360, I agree. If it isn't announced for Wii U yet, it won't come at all (like you said with the possible exception of CoD).

For games that have been mentioned for xbone/PS4/PC, there are some cases where it may remain to be seen what happens with regard to PS360. For those, it may only be 99% off the table instead of 100%.

I think Nintendo will have a couple surprises.

 

[EGM1966]

I hope whatever the total WW sales numbers are for Infamous it's enough to keep Sucker Punch going on a new game. I thought it was amazing, too bad it fell off the cliff sales wise.

It's initial sales were very strong for the IP and while it's not going to appear again on top seller lists it'll most likely show the usual steady trickle from global markets sales most Sony single player IP titles show. I'll be astonished if it doesn't make more than enough for SP to be comfortable.

 

[allan-bh]

Kinect Sports Rivals should be a launch tittle.

 

[ethomaz]

I just said that...

MS will make Kinect optional... take a guess.

I just wish Rare make games again in the future... a new Banjo is a good start.

And the article show up... Rare dommed?

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2014-05-19-layoffs-hit-rare-following-kinect-sports-rivals-flop

 

[DaleinCalgary]

Kinect Sports Rivals should be a launch tittle.

And packed in for free.

 

[Gator86]

In terms of hardcore titles...we could potentially see:

1) No more Arkham games

2) No more Call of Duty games

3) No more Assassin's Creed games


...as a very real reality for Nintendo hardcore retail support this holiday season.

But it's not just the hardcore tentpole titles that have fallen off a cliff. The Wii U third-party retail environment is...very small at the moment.



List of Wii U retail games released in the first five months of 2014 in the USA:

That is the grand total of five months of retail releases.

Activision with shovelware, Nintendo with core games, and Warner Bros. with LEGO. That's it.

I knew the Wii U situation was dire but good lord. It's absolutely mind-blowing that Nintendo could bungle their Wii followup so badly. Regardless of what they put out next, I wonder how much damage the Wii U has done to consumer confidence in Nintendo. I can't imagine anyone besides devout Nintendo fans would drop cash on their next console at launch.

Either way, Nintendo is kind of fucked. If they pull support now they piss off their only loyal customers left and if they don't they're likely to have the same software drought for the follow-up console.

 

[sixteen-bit]

I'm kinda socked Ikaruga charted.

 

[tuffy]

I knew the Wii U situation was dire but good lord. It's absolutely mind-blowing that Nintendo could bungle their Wii followup so badly. Regardless of what they put out next, I wonder how much damage the Wii U has done to consumer confidence in Nintendo. I can't imagine anyone besides devout Nintendo fans would drop cash on their next console at launch.

One could say pretty much the same thing about consumer confidence regarding the Gamecube, though. After how badly it did, why would anyone drop cash on the Wii at launch? Turns out that people have a really short memory going from one generation to the next. So just as a previous market failure is no guarantee that the followup will be a failure (Gamecube to Wii, Master System to Genesis, etc.), there's no guarantee that a previous market success will make its followup a success (Wii to Wii U, PS2 to PS3, etc.).

"Momentum" isn't much of a factor, historically.

 

[Gator86]

One could say pretty much the same thing about consumer confidence regarding the Gamecube, though. After how badly it did, why would anyone drop cash on the Wii at launch? Turns out that people have a really short memory going from one generation to the next. So just as a previous market failure is no guarantee that the followup will be a failure (Gamecube to Wii, Master System to Genesis, etc.), there's no guarantee that a previous market success will make its followup a success (Wii to Wii U, PS2 to PS3, etc.).

"Momentum" isn't much of a factor, historically.

Momentum and consumer confidence aren't exactly the same thing although I understand your point.

The Gamecube wasn't as bad as the Wii U though. Aqua's last post shows that pretty decisively. The Wii only turned things around for Nintendo because it captured a whole new market and, as has been argued back and forth on this forum continuously, was more fad than market shift. I'm unsure of what gimmick Nintendo would throw out that would have the same effect now. And even if they do find a suitable gimmick, their relationships with third party devs are in tatters.

 

[HI. BILLY MAYS HERE]

PS4 > Wii U > Xbox One


There's an easy one for you.

I'll kick it up a notch for a truly interesting May NPD

PS4 > wiiU >360 >Xbox one

 

[StevieP]

Sony and MS both so scared of CoD WiiU they had to join forces and moneyhat Bobby to keep quiet. Right.

No. Not moneybags in the normal sense. Taking a cut from subscription revenue is what Activision does according to kotick. Shinra explained it better than me, so please refer to his post on the previous page.

 

[Imperfected]

Either way, Nintendo is kind of fucked. If they pull support now they piss off their only loyal customers left and if they don't they're likely to have the same software drought for the follow-up console.

I'll be the bad guy and say it:

If their "loyal customers" are the three million or so who bought the Wii-U close to launch, there aren't enough of them left for it to matter anyway, so anything done in the name of supporting/mollifying them is a matter of honor/pride and not practicality.

Even if pulling support early meant that everyone who bought a Wii-U would never buy another Nintendo console again... so what? There aren't enough of those people left for selling exclusively to them to represent a viable business model. If they somehow managed to release a console that sold to the general market of gamers - which I don't think they can, at this point, but just to play Devil's Advocate - but no present Wii-U owner was willing to buy it, they'd still be in a place eight times as good or better than they are now.

Their target for the future can't be another appeal to the "base" Nintendo fans. There aren't enough of them left. If they can't come up with a plan to reach the broader market, they might as well pack it up.