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[Otakumegane]

Quickkkk question.

Does NPD track Amiibo as software? I know they track Skylanders and all.

 

[RBK]

How much are you guys predicting The Order/Bloodborne to do first month NPD?

300k/400k respectively.

 

[Aquamarine]

Quickkkk question.

Does NPD track Amiibo as software? I know they track Skylanders and all.

nope.

they're tracked as accessories in a different report.


you have to pay extra for amiibo data.

 

[zero_suit]

Not possible. Aren't they like 20 million behind?

At least ~16 million

Time to kill that dream. It's not happening.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

Less than Call of Duty/GTA.

A bold prediction ...

 

[DMczaf]

One of the best Maddens in years. Go John Go!

 

[Chobel]

Bloodborne 700k
The Order 1000k

1000K? Not Gonna happen, not even Titanfall managed to do that. Heck even 700K seems out of the question.

 

[Hero]

Amiibo sales seem pretty good. The thirst is real.

 

[shinobi602]

Bloodborne will be the best selling game in March.

 

[Spazgadget]

I'm not so sure - losing out on GTA V sales has gotta sting, and is a bad sign. They put a lot of eggs in that basket. Sony's obviously got to play it safe, but MS was almost in a bad spot and now they're in a position of being able to dictate parity going forward again.

I would assume Sony moved most of their PS4 copies of GTAV in the bundle they had, which aren't counted in NPD.

 

[Kathian]

How much are you guys predicting The Order/Bloodborne to do first month NPD?

200K for the month each.

 

[Miles X]

As I said in the first post, attempting to estimate its first month (Nov 2012) on the market, given its totals for 1 week and 6 weeks, as I couldn't find the numbers for it. If its first 6 weeks was 900k, and its first 1 week was 400k, that leaves 500k in the next 5 weeks. If its first 4 weeks in 2012 was less than Dec 2013 (reported approx 500k), that means almost none of that next 500k occurred in the next 2 weeks of 2012 (Nov) and almost all of it after some sort of resupply in Dec 2012. Given that I couldn't remember massive shortages of the Wii U, I found that odd.

Not complicated to understand.

It is when we have first month data, it's 425k.

Nov 2012 - 425k
Dec 2012 - 460k

Dec 2013 - 481k

That is what "month" means when it comes to NPD, not literally "4 weeks"

 

[vinnygambini]

True, Final Fantasy will

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

 

[RBK]

Bloodborne 700k
The Order 1000k

 

[akashhhhh]

Bloodborne 700k
The Order 1000k

New IPs on one console? This is insane. Quoted just for posterity.

I think there might be too many children on this board who confuse prediction with desire.

 

[Kusagari]

Bloodborne 700k
The Order 1000k

There is no way in hell The Order comes close to breaking a million in one month.

 

[Jigorath]

I don't think Type O will be that big. It has the Final Fantasy label but it was a fairly niche Japanese title only localized several years later. Hardline will probably beat Bloodborne though. Battlefield is too popular a franchise.

 

[k3rn3ll]

5 shooters in the top 10 for the year.

Le sigh.

Also, LOL at people doubting Bloodborne. That is going to be this year's surprise hit.

Would Bloodborne being a hit be a suprise though? I don't think so. I think the PS4 software sales also prove ps4 fans are itching for a AAA exclusive. So no I won't be suprised. Plus there's not much coming out around BB to cannibalizethe sales now that they delayed it

 

[ZSaberLink]

In 2014, 16 Nintendo 3DS titles sold at least 250,000 units. Of those titles, eight sold more than 500,000 units and three sold over 1 million units.

So, this stat is somewhat interesting.
I'm guessing for this year

3 sold over 1M = Smash Bros. 3DS, Pokemon Alpha Sapphire, Pokemon Omega Ruby
8 sold over 500K - ? (does this include the over 1M ones?)
5 sold over 250K - ? (same question here...)

I assume these are US stats, but what games could actually sell that much?
Mario Kart 7, Pokemon X, Pokemon Y, Animal Crossing New Leaf, Zelda: Link Between Worlds, Zelda OOT 3D, Bravely Default, Yoshi's New Island, Tomodachi Life, Kirby: Triple Deluxe, Mario 3D Land, DKCR 3D?.... I'm still missing 1?

 

[KingSnake]

I think Splatoon can reach quite similar sales to Pikmin 3. In my opinion, seeing what happened until now with it, Nintendo could really promote this heavily and depending on the existence of a bundle or a Wii U price cut around its launch could even top that. Of course it won't reach the levels of Mario, MK8 or SSB sales, those are already very well known franchises with an established fan base.

 

[kyser73]

300k/400k respectively.

According to one of the retail guys The Order is already at 250k pre-orders in the US, so you're saying its only going to sell 50K more than that?

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

1000K? Not Gonna happen, not even Titanfall managed to do that. Heck even 700K seems out of the question.

I thought Titanfall did do a million in its launch month. It was on 3 platforms I know, but weren't some numbers posted that it did something like 1.2 million that month or its first month?

This did get a laugh out of me, I'll give you that.

I think Splatoon can reach quite similar sales to Pikmin 3. In my opinion, seeing what happened until now with it, Nintendo could really promote this heavily and depending on the existence of a bundle or a Wii U price cut around its launch could even top that. Of course it won't reach the levels of Mario, MK8 or SSB sales, those are already very well known franchises with an established fan base.

Splatoon could potentially do really well if Nintendo markets it right. There's a lot of cool stuff going on in there. It'll do great in Japan atvl.

 

[tearsintherain]

I don't understand these numbers at all. Ubisoft said Watch Dogs has sold over 9m copies year to date back in October. Yet Smash Bros is sitting at #6 and the numbers below it are 1.3m Wii U and 2m 3DS.

I guess these are physical copies only? But don't the Nintendo numbers include digital?

 

[allan-bh]

Dec 2013 - 481k

Where 481k came from?

 

[Mpl90]

3ds sales can't be good, but wii u sales are encouraging. i expect 2015 to be down year over year, all the way until september when the system gets a price cut. i'll revise downward my expectation of 5.5-6m as november sort of threw a wrench in those plans, but it has the ability to clear 5m by the end of 2015 at least, and likely wind up with 6m in the us when all is said and done. i think nintendo will be happy if the 3ds can just stay above 100k a month at this point. i mean yeesh.

really wondering when their successor platforms are going to hit.

New 3DS comes next month. That should help this year's numbers.

 

[Kagari]

According to one of the retail guys The Order is already at 250k pre-orders in the US, so you're saying its only going to sell 50K more than that?

Curious to know what Type-0 is sitting at. In Japan it's not doing so hot right now.

 

[Otakumegane]

nope.

they're tracked as accessories in a different report.


you have to pay extra for amiibo data.

Well at least Nintendo reliably talks about Amiibo sales then.

It would be interesting to know the exact breakdown though, see which characters sold the most.

 

[Officerrob]

A crappy reskinned Battlefield 4 is going to sell tons more than Bloodborne in March, Bloodborne fans should go ahead and accept that

 

[Miles X]

Where 481k came from?

Cream? That figure is a year old lol

 

[jblank83]

That is what "month" means when it comes to NPD, not literally "4 weeks"

That makes more sense.

 

[crinale]

I don't think Type O will be that big. It has the Final Fantasy label but it was a fairly niche Japanese title only localized several years later. Hardline will probably beat Bloodborne though. Battlefield is too popular a franchise.

FF15 demo..

 

[Chobel]

According to one of the retail guys The Order is already at 250k pre-orders in the US, so you're saying its only going to sell 50K more than that?

He said there are around 200K per-orders in GS.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

I don't understand these numbers at all. Ubisoft said Watch Dogs has sold over 9m copies year to date back in October. Yet Smash Bros is sitting at #6 and the numbers below it are 1.3m Wii U and 2m 3DS.

I guess these are physical copies only? But don't the Nintendo numbers include digital?

No digital tracking at all.

 

[Schryver]

A crappy reskinned Battlefield 4 is going to sell tons more than Bloodborne in March, Bloodborne fans should go ahead and accept that

Kill me now

 

[allan-bh]

I don't understand these numbers at all. Ubisoft said Watch Dogs has sold over 9m copies year to date back in October. Yet Smash Bros is sitting at #6 and the numbers below it are 1.3m Wii U and 2m 3DS.

Shipped 9 million WW.

 

[Regret Upon Approval]

I don't think the type of following the Souls games have really draw as much from the average consumer so much as the enthusiast set who are probably aware of the director/studio pedigree.

Multi million sellers announced at VGA by Alba can hardly be enthusiast only turf.

 

[Weeaboosuke]

How much are you guys predicting The Order/Bloodborne to do first month NPD?

200-300k each.

Bloodborne won't take March though, sadly, Type-0 has got dat FFXV demo hype and Battlefield is Battlefield.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Just to provide some balance

http://m.uk.ign.com/articles/2014/05/08/dark-souls-2-sells-12-million-copies

People saying 3M based on Dark Souls have little grasp of its sales success. Why is it going to magically perform well on a much smaller user base?

The 3M number is outlandish given franchise history, which I don't think has ever got that high.

At the same time, it will probably perform well/similarly to franchise history despite the smaller base, because it's a more active base than that which the second game released to and the type of sales we're talking about and the type of franchise it is doesn't necessitate a huge base to reach historical numbers.

i think nintendo will be happy if the 3ds can just stay above 100k a month at this point. i mean yeesh.

really wondering when their successor platforms are going to hit.

It feels kind of iffy whether it can, at least in non-5 week months.

Japanese sales have essentially slid to flat/down post N3DS launch. There's only the larger SKU as well. It feels mainly targeted at upgrade buyers. It's a dilly of a pickle considering there's at least like 14 months+ or whatever until a successor.

 

[astrogamer]

Likely not. Mario Kart 8 may eventually struggle to 3M, so I doubt Zelda will suddenly sell that much.

Mario kart 8 was around 3.49 million in October

 

[RespectThySole]

Less than Call of Duty/GTA.

Very bold

 

[libregkd]

I'm pretty confident that Bloodborne won't be the best selling game in March but it will do very well, I think it'll chart just as well or better than Dark Souls 2 did for sure.

 

[kyser73]

I'm not so sure - losing out on GTA V sales has gotta sting, and is a bad sign. They put a lot of eggs in that basket. Sony's obviously got to play it safe, but MS was almost in a bad spot and now they're in a position of being able to dictate parity going forward again.

What, from a position of being ~8-9mn units behind WW?

That and GTAVNG selling the most on PS4 for the year AND being bundled?

Yeah, alright.

 

[Aquamarine]

Where 481k came from?

1 year old npd figure.

don't remember if it was shared publicly on gaf, though.

 

[ZSaberLink]

year old npd figure.

don't remember if it was shared publicly on gaf, though.

I have it written down from back then, so yeh it was shared on gaf in some fashion.

 

[RBK]

According to one of the retail guys The Order is already at 250k pre-orders in the US, so you're saying its only going to sell 50K more than that?

Don't know anything about pre-order numbers, just my guess.

 

[Miles X]

year old npd figure.

don't remember if it was shared publicly on gaf, though.

It was, wouldn't have it otherwise.

 

[TomShoe]

100k seller. At best...

Hey bartender! I'll have what he's having. :^)

 

[allan-bh]

Cream? That figure is a year old lol

Sorry, I read december 2014.

 

[Percy]

Forgot about Battlefield... yeah, that'll probably be best seller in March alright.

I think Bloodborne will handily beat Type 0 though.

 

[Nightengale]

I'd guess...400-500k respectively.