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[disastermouse]

I know PS2 had amazing legs well into 2009 in North America, but is the PS3 going to have the same?

Also, this may be anecdotal, but here in Canada, I know significantly more people with PS3 than X360. I recall N64 outselling PS here as well. Do we get NPD Canada numbers separately or are they incorporated into these numbers?

There are two reasons that the PS3 MIGHT have legs. The PS2 was still a cheap, high quality DVD player that ALSO played games and the catalog was high quality.

I've heard that the PS3 BD player is also higher quality than the PS4, it has a Sony-made remote, it streams media much better, etc. It also plays 3D BDs whereas the PS4 (according to my understanding) doesn't. I still play all my BDs on my PS3, for instance. The price needs to come down, IMHO, but at least in my case, I'm not clearing my entertainment center or disconnecting my PS3 just yet.

My Xbox 360 is in mothballs, though. Part of that is just my personal preference for the Sony UI. It's somewhat slow, but the Xbox 360 UI went from useful to 'too busy, too many ads' over the course of its revisions.

 

[Game Guru]

There's still some reasonably interesting discussion over things like the overall direction and health of the industry, expectations for end-of-generation results, etc.

But, yeah, even the craziest arguments in "favor" of (for example) the Wii-U are now at the point of, "Call me nuts, but I think the Wii-U could be this generation's Gamecube!" at which point it feels too sad to even bother arguing the point. The XB1 arguments have shifted from, "XB1 will make a full recovery and win the generation," to "XB1 isn't a complete failure!"

Like, it's not even a matter of people moving the goalposts; most of the people who set the old expectations for success or failure have wisely bowed out (or unwisely been bowed out by bish), and each time the torch gets passed it just seems to get a little dimmer, you know?

True... I do expect future months to be more focused on the direction and health of the industry since well, all consoles and handhelds have seemingly collapsed from their predecessors except the PS4.

 

[ZSaberLink]

This thread started out kinda mellow, and then tapered off after a surge with the exact numbers being posted, because there was no delay, or speculation. Just everything all at once kinda stole the energy, comparatively... and then the inevitable analysis and discussion of what became... gaming philosophy?

Very odd, but interesting reads.

Props to Benny, Swift, and Ami for their various moments of Logic-smackdown, with accuracy and intricate breakdowns of existing data. Sometimes I'm glad I participate in these threads purely as an observer, hahah. I never have to be put on the spot, so to speak (except when you guys pry for data I forgot to check, like in the prediction thread).

Hey Abdiel. Sorry to bother you, but after looking at the PAL charts (where it's actually climbing over time), I'm kind of interested in how Tomodachi Life might be selling at Best Buy. Do you see similar behavior by any chance?

True... I do expect future months to be more focused on the direction and health of the industry since well, all consoles and handhelds have seemingly collapsed from their predecessors except the PS4.

It's great to know the console industry's health is decided in 8 months =P. I get being down on the Wii U, but the XB1 has only been out for 8 months...

 

[Orthogonal]

258k in February (4 week period) to 311k in March (5 week period.)

Sales were up because it was a 5 week month. When you looked a weekly figures, the XBox One was actually down the month Titanfall came out.

Someone can correct me, but I'm pretty sure that's what happened.

Damn, that is crazy. I forgot about that detail. TF did jack to improve the baseline.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Damn, that is crazy. I forgot about that detail. TF did jack to improve the baseline.

There was a TF beta in February, increasing the baseline dramatically (115K -> 271K or so). It's just the game's actual release didn't improve upon the beta baseline.

 

[creamsugar]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

 

[SwiftDeath]

YES and it seems the decision did attract buyers

 

[Amir0x]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

money talks, gamers. speak with your dollar always and we win

 

[zeromcd73]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

Only 30% got the MK8 bundle? Was expecting much higher.

 

[Aquamarine]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

Yeah, you can really see the effects from this month's MK8 shortages.

 

[Amir0x]

Only 30% got the MK8 bundle? Was expecting much higher.

Well hopefully Nintendo can get more of these units into stores, so we can maybe get another month at like 120,000 sales or something. It seems they really did undership these bundles at the very least. See, i'm trying to be optimistic!

 

[zeromcd73]

Well hopefully Nintendo can get more of these units into stores, so we can maybe get another month at like 120,000 sales or something. It seems they really did undership these bundles at the very least. See, i'm trying to be optimistic!

Nintendo's back, baby!

 

[SwiftDeath]

So of Mario Kart 8's June sales only 42k of 470k are from bundles

Note: 470k is from Nintendo PR and includes all retail as well as digital

 

[ZSaberLink]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

Good thing I decided to check the thread. Really shows some MK8 bundle shortages. I kind of wonder whether the stock situation this month was any better.

@cream - Could we get updated LTDs for 3D World & Bravely Default? Thanks!

 

[jayu26]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

Hooray for creamsugar.

I thought MK8 bundle would be higher.

 

[GamerJM]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

I expected both of these to be a lot higher, honestly.

 

[Orthogonal]

I expected both of these to be a lot higher, honestly.

I think X1 roughly even split seems about right. It probably stays that way going forward, but MK8 does seem very low, especially with the huge pop the Wii U got for June. If Nintendo can push the supply, July could also be another pleasant surprise

 

[theprodigy]

Good thing I decided to check the thread. Really shows some MK8 bundle shortages. I kind of wonder whether the stock situation this month was any better.

@cream - Could we get updated LTDs for 3D World & Bravely Default? Thanks!

and Fire Emblem: Awakening, stop forgetting it!

 

[jwhit28]

Have there been any updated Dark Souls II numbers since the 1.2 million in March?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Have there been any updated Dark Souls II numbers since the 1.2 million in March?

I don't think there has been any WW updates on DSII to my knowledge but we have updated US numbers

 

[jwhit28]

I don't think there has been any WW updates on DSII to my knowledge but we have updated US numbers

Thanks. I wonder if they will have a GotY version by this Christmas? All the DLC is supposed to be out by late September.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Thanks. I wonder if they will have a GotY version by this Christmas? All the DLC is supposed to be out by late September.

I'd have to imagine so. There will almost certainly be a "complete" edition released at some point and hitting during the holidays would probably be the best bet for sales

 

[Ty4on]

Adjusting last month to give weeks gives the XB1 96k while the XB1 with Kinect sold 89k in June. I'd love to see WoW what the announcement of Kinectless did to sales, but still interesting to see. Wonder if it has a market or if they're just good bundles.

 

[Dire]

While weekly sales did actually decrease for the XB1 from Feb to March

64.5k -> 62.2k

It's worth mentioning that Titanfall sold ~865k its first months retail standalone and approximately 218k in bundles

So of XB1 owners that owned an XB1 prior to March [most likely, see note] in the US, roughly 39% bought TF on its debut month

Of new buyers of the XB1 in March roughly 70% chose the TF bundle

I think its safe to say TF had a significant positive effect on XB1 sales, it just seems to be somewhat spread out throughout its life so far and not simply all in March

Note: I am discounting the possibility that someone bought an XB1 in March that was not the TF bundle and then went on to buy TF retail standalone. While I'm sure this actually happened it is hard to account for and likely statistically negligible

That's just as easily, and I think more reasonably, explained by the software drought on consoles. The bundles are largely irrelevant since then it's just comparison between Forza which was outdated and received widespread negative publicity over its free-to-play style microtransactions and limited launch content vs what was being marketed as "the next big thing."

For comparison Infamous Second Son sold over a million in 9 days as well, which was a record for the relatively unpopular series. The relevant issue here being that it broke that record while launching to a small fraction of previous userbases, consequently attaining a vastly higher attach rate. The next gen launch library has been terrible for all the consoles resulting in much higher than normal sales for anything that seems better than meh.

 

[Chobel]

So of Mario Kart 8's June sales only 42k of 470k are from bundles

Note: 470k is from Nintendo PR and includes all retail as well as digital

We also know that MK8 sold 401K in retail thanks to gamecrate

Spoiler

R.I.P.

, so that means ~27K (5.74%) of the sales were digital.

 

[Puppet Shadow]

I think X1 roughly even split seems about right. It probably stays that way going forward

Do they have the same hard drive? I think the more expensive 360 sold more (based on the average selling price the NPD info used to include), because people felt they needed the HD space. So does the Kinectless Sku have a smaller HD?

If not, I can see the kinect version going down to maybe 25% by the holidays.

 

[Guevara]

Thanks. I wonder if they will have a GotY version by this Christmas? All the DLC is supposed to be out by late September.

Possibly a next gen port too.

 

[SwiftDeath]

That's just as easily, and I think more reasonably, explained by the software drought on consoles. The bundles are largely irrelevant since then it's just comparison between Forza which was outdated and received widespread negative publicity over its free-to-play style microtransactions and limited launch content vs what was being marketed as "the next big thing."

Sure it would have some effect but it's impossible to try and objectively identify what force is doing what to what level of effect.

I find it hard to look at something like a 39% attach rate even this early in the gen and not come away thinking a large swath of XB1 owners bought their console to play TF when it did indeed release.

Both theories are just as possible and certainly both occurred. The effect of both is impossible to measure though.

For comparison Infamous Second Son sold over a million in 9 days as well, which was a record for the relatively unpopular series. The relevant issue here being that it broke that record while launching to a small fraction of previous userbases, consequently attaining a vastly higher attach rate. The next gen launch library has been terrible for all the consoles resulting in much higher than normal sales for anything that seems better than meh.

ISS sales are WW though on a bit under 7M consoles. You're talking less than a 14% attach rate while still good is not bonkers.

We also know that MK8 sold 401K in retail thanks to gamecrate

Spoiler

R.I.P.

, so that means ~27K (5.74%) of the sales were digital.

Cool I'll add that to the summary. Thanks for pointing it out

 

[goomba]

Sony should make a new console war is over banner.

the race for second place globally should still be interesting.

 

[heidern]

Kinectless ~108K @ ~21.7K a week.
Kinectplus ~89K @ 17.7K a week.

This compares to 19.25K a week in May. So demand for Kinectplus went down a bit, but Kinectless made a splash.

 

[Boke1879]

500k+ in September NPD.

Yup. I think Destiny will do for the PS4 what Halo 3 did for the 360.

I think 500k+ is a good bet.

 

[Blanquito]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

Thanks! That matches up pretty closely to what amazon shows as well. Interesting, then....

 

[BananaSprinkles]

Yes, but the February bump was also effectively a Titanfall bump.

And yet January (143k) didn't look all that good.

 

[Chobel]

Yes, but the February bump was also effectively a Titanfall bump.

Other than PS4, all devices got a bump in February, so not necessarily happened because of Titanfall.

Platform: Jan Results -> Feb Results | Percentage Change MOM

PS4: 271K -> ~269K | [-.7%]
XB1: 141K -> 258K | [+83%]
3DS: ~97K -> ~151K - 156K | [+56% - +61%]
PS3: ~53.5K -> ~103K | [+92.5%]
Wii U: 49K -> 82.5K | [+68%]
360: ~48.5K -> 114K | [+135%]
Vita: <17K -> ~24K | [+41%]

Via SwiftDeath

 

[Welfare]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

Hmm, would the TF bundle account for most of the rest of the %, like 25% or higher?

Never realized that being gone for 4 hours (Battleground) would mean me missing the banning of Isleofsancroy. Oh well. Did he not provide links in time?

Post numbers NPD threads should be more interesting .

 

[GamerJM]

I think X1 roughly even split seems about right. It probably stays that way going forward, but MK8 does seem very low, especially with the huge pop the Wii U got for June. If Nintendo can push the supply, July could also be another pleasant surprise

Who are all these people that want the Kinect though?

 

[orochi91]

Pity PS4 won't reach the 10 million mark by Gamescom. Would have made for
a lovely announcement via Andrew House's blatantly smug face.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I think X1 roughly even split seems about right. It probably stays that way going forward, but MK8 does seem very low, especially with the huge pop the Wii U got for June. If Nintendo can push the supply, July could also be another pleasant surprise

I kind of think that they don't want to push out a ton of MK bundles and rather let some of the stock just stagnating get pushed out of retail. I mean, they just pushed out roughly 100k of any other wild bundle they had sitting around. That's probably what they want as opposed to losing some money on the MK bundle.

 

[AniHawk]

i think in march we knew that 24k mk8 bundles were sold. so that means there's been about 77k sold in north america. that sure is damn impressive. and i don't think the shortages have to do with nintendo intentionally not creating enough. it's more likely retailers only ordered that amount based on past performance of the wii u. i mean 77k is basically what the system did for all of five weeks, so you can't blame retailers for not wanting to add another month+ to their existing stock.

it also means over 100k of their other bundles moved during june, indicating people really wanted their hands on mario kart, even if they couldn't get the bundle to do it. that's a fairly good sign.

on the xbox one side, the weekly average of purchases that didn't buy the kinectly sku, but did purchase an xbox one (18k), is pretty close to may's weekly average of 19.25k. not exactly sure what that means, if it means anything at all.

 

[Infinite Xero]

Pity PS4 won't reach the 10 million mark by Gamescom. Would have made for
a lovely announcement via Andrew House's blatantly smug face.

It will by TGS and that's Sony's home country so they can brag about it there and maybe get some Japanese developers to starting making PS4 (exclusive) games.

 

[zeromcd73]

It will by TGS and that's Sony's home country so can brag about it there and maybe get some Japanese developers to starting making PS4 games.

Maybe in two more years....

 

[shinra-bansho]

on the xbox one side, the weekly average of purchases that didn't buy the kinectly sku, but did purchase an xbox one (18k), is pretty close to may's weekly average of 19.25k. not exactly sure what that means, if it means anything at all.

It could be taken, and this is pure conjecture, as the rough baseline level of people for whom the Xbox One + Kinect is worthwhile value at $499.

I'd imagine part of the additional 22K or so per week is people delaying purchases from May - i.e. people for whom a $499 XBO+Kinect would have been sufficient value had a new SKU at $399 been announced that offers them a more compelling product proposition.
While part of that is people who weren't previously willing to buy a XBO, but now will with the new SKU.

April's weekly average was around 28K with May normally down a tick, so perhaps rough guestimatespeculation about a third of the additional sales rate this month may have been delayed purchases v. two thirds new consumer interest. If that's the case, something in the realm of 35K weekly averages maybe in July.

 

[Raist]

Yeah I concur. I think my actual estimate was at around 8.4M but I conceded Europe sales might've picked up a bit relative to the US for PS4 considering things like the German charts. Conjecture of course

Probably a reasonable one. The PS4 was hard to find in France and Germany at lthe very least until ISS hit the shelves.

From the SELL data, Gen 8 consoles sold 0.69M in the first 5 months of 2014 vs 0.37M PS4+XB1 in Novermber/December. Not sure about the WiiU but it sold 176k in the whole of 2013, so even if it sold half of that in the holiday season, this likely indicates that sales haven't dropped as much as they have in the US for instance.

edit: the Gen 8 install base is 1M in France as of May 2014. At the beginning of the year, it was at 0.3 for the WiiU, 0.24 PS4 and 0.13 XB1. That makes 0.33M consoles sold in Jan-May.


Similar situation in Germany, where 0.62M Gen 8 consoles were sold in Jan-May, and PS4+XB1 had sold 0.35M together in Nov-Dec.
Spain, 0.39M in 2014, vs 0.19 PS4+XB1 in 2013.
Again, likely more stable sales than in the US. I'm presuming a significant part of this is increased availability of the PS4.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Pity PS4 won't reach the 10 million mark by Gamescom. Would have made for
a lovely announcement via Andrew House's blatantly smug face.

It definitely has a chance.

We calculated some time ago that it should be around 8.6-9 million right now. 1 million in 6 weeks is the challenge.

 

[GoofsterStud]

It definitely has a chance.

We calculated some time ago that it should be around 8.6-9 million right now. 1 million in 6 weeks is the challenge.

Yeah. I wonder how heavy they will market The Last of Us....

 

[Sandfox]

It definitely has a chance.

We calculated some time ago that it should be around 8.6-9 million right now. 1 million in 6 weeks is the challenge.

I really don't see that happening.

 

[Mpl90]

XB1 W/O KINECT ~ 55%
MK8 bundle ~ 30%

This could go well enough with what my hypotesis about Xbox One earlier, for the Theories corner

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=121568467&postcount=2520

Going deeper

Xbox One with Kinect - 88,650 --> 17,730 per week
Xbox One without Kinect - 108,350 --> 21,670 per week

About Wii U

Mario Kart 8 Premium packs sold in June - 42,000
Total (May + June) - 77,000

Wii U without MK8 pack included - 98,000 --> 19,600 per week
MK8 pack - 42,000 --> 8,400 per week

Wii U April sales - 49,000 --> 12,250 per week
Wii U May sales - 61,000 --> 15,250 per week
Wii U June sales - 140,000 --> 28,000 per week

If there weren't any MK8 bundle, by following the historically classic MOM increases/drops

Wii U April sales - 49,000 --> 12,250 per week
Wii U May sales (April x 0.87) --> 42,630 --> 10,657 per week
Wii U June sales (May x 1.4) --> 59,682 --> 11,936 per week

Theories

Xbox One

Given the estimates I made a few days ago, in the case of no new SKU announced/released

Xbox One April - 115,000 ---> 28,750 per week
Xbox One May (April x 0.87) --> 100,000 ---> 25,000 per week
Xbox One June (June x 1.4) --> 140,000 ---> 28,000 per week

Real contribute to June sales from the Kinectless SKU (108,350 in 4 weeks)

197,000 - 140,000 = 57,000 --> some people were going to buy an Xbox One anyway, but just decided to wait for the MK8 bundle

This could go side by side with what said in the earlier post about the shifted demand

Wii U

Real contribute to May sales from MK8 pack (25,000 in 2 days)

61,000 - 42,630 = 18,370 --> some people were going to buy a Wii U anyway, but just decided to wait for the MK8 bundle

Real contribute to June sales from MK8 pack (42,000 in 5 weeks)

140,000 - 59,682 = 80,318 --> people not only wanted a Wii U for MK8 more than the first part of the year, but they bought other SKUs to play MK8, even those without the game.

Digital sales

Mario Kart 8 total sales June - 470,000
MK8 retail sales June - 401,000
MK8 bundle sales June - 42,000
MK8 digital sales June - 27,000 (5,74% overall sales)

Mario Kart 8 total sales LTD - 885,000

Mario Kart 8 May total sales = 885,000 - 470,000 = 415,000
MK8 retail sales May - 352,000
MK8 bundle sales May - 25,000
MK8 digital sales May - 38,000 (9,15% overall sales)

Mario Kart 8 total sales LTD - 885,000
MK8 retail sales LTD - 753,000
MK8 bundle sales LTD - 67,000
MK8 digital sales LTD - 65,000 (7,34% overall sales)

 

[creamsugar]

LTD

Yoshi ~ 287k
BD ~ 277k
Kirby ~ 196k
Golf ~ 58k

FFHD ~ 82k
B2 ~ 39k
GOWC ~ 25kk

 

[SwiftDeath]

Thanks as always cream

 

[Infinite Xero]

LTD

FFHD ~ 82k
B2 ~ 39k
GOWC ~ 25kk

I assume these are Vita sales. FF sold kinda bad and Borderlands 2 (?) is a disappointment. Considering the quality of the GoW Collection I say 25k is bit excessive.