Microsoft isn't a company that's bound by what it's competitors do, similar to Nintendo.
Microsoft have nothing to lose at this point, As things stand, PS5 will dominate for the next 4yrs, Series X is going to be a very distant second unless they break from the current release cadence of new consoles, which only really benefits Sony.
A new, next gen Xbox in late 2025 or early 2026 is what they need to get people excited about the brand once again. It will give them a 2yr headstart on Sony, who won't be able to come out with something massively more powerful just 18 to 24mths later given the long design lead times of silicon chips.
I think MS should create their own timetable for hardware releases, not slavishly stick to when they think Sony will.
..its worked out pretty well for Nintendo.
Xbox is not like Nintendo at all. Only Microsoft money can allow them to somehow have the same ability to do what they want without caring to the gaming market at large, and even then this is IMHO a lot more limited. Xbox can't ignore the PC market like Nintendo does. It can't ignore a game like GTA 6 like Nintendo can. Not that Nintendo don't have problems of their own, but the situation is not the same at all, and simply wanting to have what Nintendo have, like their different place in the industry, brand and appeal to consumers without having what makes that possible in the first place, their treasure trove of unique IP.
This being said, my problem with a early next gen Xbox console is more about how the market will react to it, and how hard it will be for Xbox to make a good enough pitch for studios all around the world to make good use of this new console. We are still getting this year games like RE 4 Remake and Armored Core 6 for PS4. Games take a long time to make and will naturally be made with the best selling console in mind. This gen it will be the PS5. Once we accept that fact, and you seems to think so as you said that the PS5 will dominate for the next 4yrs, it makes any new console in a weird position to me. I will try to explain that with numbers, and it will be more about the hardware than how much I like the console or the number of exclusives or stuff like that.
The PS5 will be 1, as it is the standard for this generation for the sake of this discussion. I understand that the S/X have advantages of their own, and am not downplaying them, just explaining my feelings about it.
The PS4 was also a 1, and the Xbox One was inferior in some aspects. Let's put them at 0.8. When we got the PS4 Pro and the Xbox One X, the Pro was just a simple upgrade of something really good. I will say it is a 2. The One X was a much bigger jump from the Xbox One, but it was still limited from a CPU perspective, so I will put it a 3. At some point it could be found for cheaper than the PS4 Pro in most markets, and that would put it at a 4, as it is obvious that the cheaper a console is, the more attractive it get, up to a certain point. The thing is that the Pro was out 1 year earlier than the One X. And that cost them a lot IMHO in terms of potential sales, and that did not help them at all for market adoption. When a game really use the One X power, it shows.
Now let's do the same with the PS5 gen. The PS5 is 1. The Xbox Series X will be 1 too, once again for making the discussion easier. The Series S will be 0.7 as it is cheaper, but weaker, and don't sell that much more than the X. We know that a PS5 Pro could happen this year. It will be a 2, unless Sony got greedy and make it too costly and/or underpowered. What will Xbox next console be? If it get only one year after the PS5 Pro in 2025/2026, it will not be able to get really that much better than the PS5 Pro. If it is out one year before the PS6, it will be hard for them to match it at the same price point.
And then we get to the market response. Games take years to be made. Even if we got a next gen Xbox for the end of 2025, and it is a great console there will be a lot of cross gen in between, and we know that with Gamepass Xbox can't abandon the Series S/X for a few years. So we got a console that will have games made with the Series S in mind. Then a PS6 will happen, that will naturally use the time to be a lot better. Then what, you put a next gen Pro to fight against it? When Xbox did not do that for the Series S/X gen? You let the PS6 be the best way to play without answer? Remember that we got that with the Dreamcast and Saturn. It is a bad place to be. Can Xbox decide to when a next generation begin? I am not sure. Would such a console be attractive for hardcore gamers? Of course. But I would see it as a glorified Pro version. It is as I have said in the post that you have quoted, a matter of timing. Too soon and it will not be a meaningful upgrade to the PS5 Pro. Too late and it will naturally not be in a good position against the PS6. Just imagine if they have done your idea for this gen. A Series S/X out one year earlier. What do you think would have happened? And if you admit that this would have been a bad idea, why do you think that for next gen it would be a good idea?
Sorry for the long answer, but I am really curious about what will happen when/if there is a PS5 Pro but not equivalent for Xbox. And once again, if a really good console is out from Xbox,and they got great games for it, I will take it, as it will be the best place to play for a few years.