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[Opiate]

Lack of compelling software coupled with large existing back catalogs.

I think this can be summarily described as generational fatigue.

If we consider the Wii a "fad" because of its quirky controller -- which people tried, played with, had fun with, then discarded once they no longer found the newness compelling -- then the 360 and PS3 are similarly faddish, just in a way we accept as normal because we are accustomed to it. People try new systems because of their awesome new graphical and technical capabilities, they play the new games with the best graphics and largest worlds, and then gradually grow accustomed to these graphics. The newness of the graphics and worlds, like the newness of the controller, ceases to be inherently exciting. Customers become bored and move on in exactly the same way some Wii gamers do, it's just that the 360/PS3 had huge third party support to sustain this "fad" for a longer period of time.

In other words, the active install base is decreasing as new users aren't added fast enough to replace those that are buying far less games or who have abandoned their consoles entirely because they bought new shiny things or decided to exit the market entirely for now.

 

[walking fiend]

The next six months actually look pretty rosy for the 3DS in terms of software, but there's caveats to basically every title.

It's Castlevania, but Castlevania games have never really been big, and the hardcore Castlevania fans don't seem interested in this take.
The rest are all Nintendo titles, but whether Luigi's Mansion or Paper Mario can move systems isn't something I'm willing to bet on. NSMB2 will probably move some, given the right marketing.

Coincidentally, I just checked gamespot and saw a full article feature for Mirrors of Fate at their website; do they usually provide this kind of coverage for handheld games?

To me, it sounds like Konami is trying to make a big deal out of Mirrors of Fate; being their only Castlevania game shown.

For handhelds, nothing came out in May to push 3DS hardware. Consoles seem to be the same thing, as the two big games for May were from PC franchises (though I assume MP3's sales here are for consoles).

It'll be time to judge hardware with software come Theatrhythm, Kingdom Hearts, and New Super Mario Bros 2.

Yes, of course sales will get better; however, I believe DS was selling more than this without even one of these high profile titles? Can some one please list the important DS games till May 2006?

 

[B.O.O.M]

I don't know that you'll see anything from them, honestly. Maybe Joystiq or another site gets NoA to open up tomorrow, but these numbers are certainly not worth publicizing... especially with so much criticism aimed at Nintendo currently.

awww man

 

[Graphics Horse]

Those are some weak ass numbers, depressing it's only +17% vs pre-price drop and pre-Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart (right?)?

Yup.
I think they'd enjoyed taking the ~$5Million profit of the original price more than getting a 17% bump with ~$0 profit.

 

[SickBoy]

Has there ever been much discussion on software unit-sales industry-wide?

I would expect that average software prices continue to drop as the generation grinds on... I wonder how much of an impact that has on the declining dollar figure for software sales... i.e: is it more that fewer games are being sold or that the games that are being sold are cheaper (I would guess some combination)

 

[Petrae]

Wow, pretty terrible all around. Every current gen system could really use a pricecut though, particularly PS3/360/Vita but also Wii/3DS.

The most obvious of these IMO is the 360. It's been awhile since the last cut and sales are clearly skidding. Unfortunately, the idea of a "lower cost" option by way of the subsidy idea could put any price cut on hold.

The PS3 just dropped price less than a year ago. Perhaps we see another $50 drop in August, but am not totally sold on the idea. The PS3 has been the best YOY performer (-17% versus 2011) in 2012.

The Wii makes sense to drop to $100. Clear inventory. Drop a few more Nintendo Select releases, too. I'm a little surprised that Nintendo hasn't authorized this yet.

The Vita won't see a price cut anytime soon. Maybe Q4 sometime, but the AssCreed bundle tells me that they're trying to hold out for more software to turn the tide. After this month's poor showing, I honestly don't know that Sony can afford to wait that long.

The 3DS needs more games and better positioning. I think that the "more games" part of the equation is in the works, though it's taking awhile. "Better positioning" could include a smaller drop (to $150), but also more marketing and promotion.

 

[Diablos54]

which begs the question: how is that possible?

How can an N64 port have development trouble?

 

[Sammy Samusu]

For reference, Monster Hunter Tri did just over 100k it's first NPD.

*evil laugh*

Monster Hunter 3 landed at #11, and sold between 108k-143k.

 

[Foffy]

Yes, of course sales will get better; however, I believe DS was selling more than this without even one of these high profile titles? Can some one please list the important DS games till May 2006?

I believe the 3DS has sold faster than the DS in the same timeframe, even with this months sales. And to be fair, you'd be comparing 15 months with the 3DS to 18 with DS, if you're looking from launch to May.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Understandable, but this is said every time a Halo game is launched, and every time there is a 360 HW bump.

ODST ('09):

August: Xbox 360 - 215,400
September: Xbox 360 - 356,700

Reach ('10):

August: Xbox 360 - 356,700
September: Xbox 360 - 483,989

Granted this is 2012, and we're coming up to the 360's EIGHTH (!) holiday season, but I still think it's a possibility.

Maybe; but I don't think you can take the August to September transition as indicative of a Halo-induced hardware bump and not just a monthly variation. For one thing August is a 4 week NPD month vs September being 5; and I think other platforms also see average weekly sales up in Sept vs Aug. Halo 3 had an undeniable bump - I think the impact has diminished progressively though.

 

[Somnid]

Nintendo has fixed the issues with 3DS and it's pretty clear it's not going anyway but it just hasn't found that spark. I would point to the utter lack of expanded audience titles, it's really just "core" games and Mario. They had Nintendogs (which I'm sure sells a stable amount every month) but because of other launch issues it wasn't a driver of sales. Since then they've put out nothing. No Layton, no Brain Training, no Animal Crossing and it shows the userbase is more like a normal console and not the 50/50 male/female split seen on Wii and DS. Nor do they have that older crowd.

So really at present I see it following the 360/PS3 curve, as the hardware goes down in price and the library expands so will the 3DS. But if they want those great sales they need more of those expanded audience titles.

Looks like they've learned with Wii U. It has an impressive expanded lineup out of the gate.

 

[Kusagari]

So, naturally this is a crummy month and #9 is not a big deal, but I will eat my crow--Dragon's Dogma has done significantly better in the US and in Japan than I thought it would. The reception of the game was better, the sales were better, the promotional efforts were better. Capcom stated it was a big title for them and it never really felt like it to me. I was wrong.

Of course, it is their most expensive title ever and it probably debuted with lower sales than RE:ORC so maybe the laugh is still on Capcom. But I was wrong.

In Japan definitely. It far exceeded my expectations there.

I don't see how these sales are impressive at all. This month looks horrible. It's extremely likely that the game clocked in under 100k, and it's not like it will have any real legs. It will probably take years of price drops just to hope to match ORC's debut month.

 

[Megadragon15]

Sony PR is wonderful. No Vita mention, talks about exclusives that weren't even Top 10.

Good old Sony PR with the "momentum" talk. Always useless for information.

 

[EagleEyes]

Journey was successful...but, yeah I think Sony need to start being a little more...selective with what they develop.

I guess MLB the Show has done decent for them lately, so theres that at least.

 

[Petrae]

Has there ever been much discussion on software unit-sales industry-wide?

I would expect that average software prices continue to drop as the generation grinds on... I wonder how much of an impact that has on the declining dollar figure for software sales... i.e: is it more that fewer games are being sold or that the games that are being sold are cheaper (I would guess some combination)

The declines between unit sales and revenue intake seem to be pretty identical. In May 2012, unit sales and revenue intake fell 39% from a year ago. Year to date, unit sales are off 30%, while revenue is down 31%.

 

[schuelma]

In Japan definitely. It far exceeded my expectations there.

I don't see how these sales are impressive at all. This month looks horrible. It's extremely likely that the game clocked in under 100k, and it's not like it will have any real legs. It will probably take years of price drops just to hope to match ORC's debut month.

Yeah..did very well in Japan, but I don't see how these numbers are going to be good.

 

[Dash Kappei]

· Total retail spend on the Xbox 360 platform in May (hardware, software and accessories) reached $209 million, the most for any console in the U.S. and more than the spend on the other two current-generation consoles combined. (Source: NPD Group, May 2012)

Yoshida saiz "no..."

 

[jetjevons]

well excuuuuuuuuuuse me for not being overly negative.

but indeed, things aren't looking good for the future of the 3DS. I wonder what is the general feel at Nintendo. If the Wii U isn't a success they could be in serious trouble.

Almost everything Nintendo does is ultimately a success. First party brands and legions of loyal fans ensure it. However I just don't see the Wii-U recapturing the 'family game night' living room excitement of the Wii. Nintendoland is NO Wii Sports.

 

[AniHawk]

pricing needs to come down to how it was in the psx-ps2 days:

xbox 360: $99.99/$149.99
ps3: $129.99/$179.99
wii: $79.99 + game or $99.99 + games
3ds: $99.99

console software: $39.99 for select first party games (i loved it when sony did this), $49.99 for everything else. $19.99 for greatest hits/platinum hits/player's choice

handheld software: $34.99 for some first party games, $29.99 for everything else. $19.99 for budget games and greatest hits type games.

 

[SafeinSound]

Wow, these numbers.

 

[blazinglazers]

I can't be the only one who said, "what the fuck is Sniper Elite v2?" lol

This: http://youtu.be/Dzc_8j4r-ck?hd=1&t=21s

 

[shinra-bansho]

Nintendo has fixed the issues with 3DS and it's pretty clear it's not going anyway but it just hasn't found that spark. I would point to the utter lack of expanded audience titles, it's really just "core" games and Mario. They had Nintendogs (which I'm sure sells a stable amount every month) but because of other launch issues it wasn't a driver of sales. Since then they've put out nothing. No Layton, no Brain Training, no Animal Crossing and it shows the userbase is more like a normal console and not the 50/50 male/female split seen on Wii and DS. Nor do they have that older crowd.

So really at present I see it following the 360/PS3 curve, as the hardware goes down in price and the library expands so will the 3DS. But if they want those great sales they need more of those expanded audience titles.

Looks like they've learned with Wii U. It has an impressive expanded lineup out of the gate.

I'm going to bring up the elephant in the room and suggest that the fickle (Western) expanded audience now has Angry Birds to play for free.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

I'm so curious to see sales in Oct/Nov/Dec. If they severely lack it'll be funny because we'll know there's still another year of it at least.

IMO they definitely waited 1 year too long to start next gen. Stretched this one past its limits. I guess they can try price drops.

 

[TheMan]

pricing needs to come down to how it was in the psx-ps2 days:

xbox 360: $99.99/$149.99
ps3: $129.99/$179.99
wii: $79.99 + game or $99.99 + games
3ds: $99.99

console software: $39.99 for select first party games (i loved it when sony did this), $49.99 for everything else. $19.99 for greatest hits/platinum hits/player's choice

handheld software: $34.99 for some first party games, $29.99 for everything else. $19.99 for budget games and greatest hits type games.

yes! i don't understand why these prices aren't a reality yet. especially for the wii.

 

[Opiate]

I'm surprised people feel so confident about price cuts having significant impacts.

I wouldn't suggest they will do nothing, but I do feel that the 360 and PS3 are now in the position that the Wii was upon its last price drop; the problem is no longer the price, as the people who want these systems already have them, by and large. Instead, the problem now is creating new, compelling software for people who were not previously interested in the console.

In the Wii's case, the last price cut produced a brief, modest hardware bump. It was not sustained even for half a year, and certainly did not reverse the systems' general downward momentum. I feel any 360/PS3 price cuts are much more likely to resemble that Wii price cut than they are to resemble the PS2's price cut from 300 to 200.

 

[coldfoot]

Low US sales helps the PS3 catch up to 360 since it's stronger in Europe (except for UK), and everywhere else. I think PS3 JP sales are about %50 of PS3 US sales this month, which is remarkable for such a small market.
As a console generation drags on, US market will go down first, followed by Europe, and then the rest of the world. These are the times for the PS3 to catch up worldwide.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm surprised people feel so confident about price cuts having significant impacts.

it's not that as much as i feel an all-around more affordable hobby for people would be healthier for the industry.

 

[Tookay]

So it's safe to say Dragon's Dogma completely bombed?

 

[Glorified G]

Prices need to go down asap. Especially the ps3. How is it still not $199 after almost 6 years on the market is beyond me.

 

[Stumpokapow]

#9 on this slow-ass month is supposed to be good? I wonder if it even broke 100k.

etc, others making same point.

I really thought it was going to tank much harder.

The RE6 demo is the only bit of marketing I can think of

But it's with all new copies, the demo isn't due for a month, it's 360 exclusive, and Capcom didn't really push it.

Pretty hefty in-store promotion and pushes to pre-order.

 

[dragonfart28]

Screw next gen.

It's time for price drops.

 

[MikeE21286]

I think this can be summarily described as generational fatigue.

If we consider the Wii a "fad" because of its quirky controller -- which people tried, played with, had fun with, then discarded once they no longer found the newness compelling -- then the 360 and PS3 are similarly faddish, just in a way we accept as normal because we are accustomed to it. People try new systems because of their awesome new graphical and technical capabilities, they play the new games with the best graphics and largest worlds, and then gradually grow accustomed to these graphics. The newness of the graphics and worlds, like the newness of the controller, ceases to be inherently exciting. Customers become bored and move on in exactly the same way some Wii gamers do, it's just that the 360/PS3 had huge third party support to sustain this "fad" for a longer period of time.

In other words, the active install base is decreasing as new users aren't added fast enough to replace those that are buying far less games or who have abandoned their consoles entirely because they bought new shiny things or decided to exit the market entirely for now.

Yep I'd agree.

Pretty succinct interpretation there.

 

[jetjevons]

So it's safe to say Dragon's Dogma completely bombed?

I think it's safe to say that currently it has lost money on their investment.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

I'm surprised people feel so confident about price cuts having significant impacts.

I wouldn't suggest they will do nothing, but I do feel that the 360 and PS3 are now in the position that the Wii was upon its last price drop; the problem is no longer the price, as the people who want these systems already have them, by and large. Instead, the problem now is creating new, compelling software for people who were not previously interested in the console.

In the Wii's case, the last price cut produced a brief, modest hardware bump. It was not sustained even for half a year, and certainly did not reverse the systems' general downward momentum. I feel any 360/PS3 price cuts are much more likely to resemble that Wii price cut than they are to resemble the PS2's price cut from 300 to 200.

You're right. It sucks though because it's going to be like one....long....slow...train wreck until the new consoles come out. Train wreck obviously being hyperbolic, but yeah.

I wonder if one of the 2 companies will choose to launch earlier next year (by earlier I mean august, give or take), rather than later in november/december.

 

[Tiktaalik]

I want to say something along the lines of "Let's not forget this is a cyclical industry folks" but I wasn't following NPD during the dying days of the Gamecube/Xbox/PS2 and so I don't know if it ever got this bad. Does anyone have that data kicking around?

 

[VanWinkle]

I'm surprised people feel so confident about price cuts having significant impacts.

I wouldn't suggest they will do nothing, but I do feel that the 360 and PS3 are now in the position that the Wii was upon its last price drop; the problem is no longer the price, as the people who want these systems already have them, by and large. Instead, the problem now is creating new, compelling software for people who were not previously interested in the console.

In the Wii's case, the last price cut produced a brief, modest hardware bump. It was not sustained even for half a year, and certainly did not reverse the systems' general downward momentum. I feel any 360/PS3 price cuts are much more likely to resemble that Wii price cut than they are to resemble the PS2's price cut from 300 to 200.

I don't know. I mean, PS3 is still at $249. It hasn't even reached that $199 golden point yet. I don't think that there are HUGE sales left for these consoles, but I still see an increase at least for the PS3 once it drops in price.

 

[Man God]

It boggles the mind just how much money Activision is leaving on the table by not porting D3 to every console imaginable.

 

[RukusProvider]

Peter Skerritt @PeterSkerritt

@kmartnintendork Lack of any Wii titles? Maybe. When you sell 70% fewer Wii units as compared to last May, there's something afoot.


Get to it gaf!

 

[fluffydelusions]

“PC Games sales realized a year over year increase of 230% realizing $80MM in sales, which softened the decline in software sales overall.”

PC gaming is dead though

 

[bill0527]

I think this can be summarily described as generational fatigue.

In other words, the active install base is decreasing as new users aren't added fast enough to replace those that are buying far less games or who have abandoned their consoles entirely because they bought new shiny things or decided to exit the market entirely for now.

Nail on the head. I've owned every console this generation since the day it launched and I am bored to tears with all of them. Absolutely nothing coming that is WOW-ing me or make me feel like I need to turn any of them on again. I recently upgraded my PC and I'm going to let my gtx 560ti carry me over until our console overlord fools decide to get off their asses and release some new hardware.

I've seen the best of what all of them have to offer in terms of graphics and experiences and it's time for something new. Next generation should have launched last Christmas or at least this Christmas.

I expect nothing but massive YoY industry-wide drops outside the holidays until Sony and Microsoft move on to next generation. This month would have been nothing short of appalling had Diablo III not released.

 

[squicken]

I think this has been a near-consistent trend for a good few years.

For a while already.

Thanks. That's crazy to me. I understand the Wii has sort of saturated the market, but what the heck is going on PS3? Why won't they lower price? Are they still losing money on it?

 

[walking fiend]

I'm surprised people feel so confident about price cuts having significant impacts.

I wouldn't suggest they will do nothing, but I do feel that the 360 and PS3 are now in the position that the Wii was upon its last price drop; the problem is no longer the price, as the people who want these systems already have them, by and large. Instead, the problem now is creating new, compelling software for people who were not previously interested in the console.

In the Wii's case, the last price cut produced a brief, modest hardware bump. It was not sustained even for half a year, and certainly did not reverse the systems' general downward momentum. I feel any 360/PS3 price cuts are much more likely to resemble that Wii price cut than they are to resemble the PS2's price cut from 300 to 200.

I can only talk about myself;

I want a PS3, only to play MGS4 and Heavy Rain and maybe GoWIII; I am not even interested in trying other games even if given for free; there's no way I will buy the new console even at 150.

What I will do is that will buy a second hand console which will be cheaper than a new one regardless of the cuts, and sell it back after few weeks that I have finished the games.

---
what I mean, is that since I don't see any ongoing value in owning the system, I am not going to buy one.

 

[Tookay]

I want to say something along the lines of "Let's not forget this is a cyclical industry folks" but I wasn't following NPD during the dying days of the Gamecube/Xbox/PS2 and so I don't know if it ever got this bad. Does anyone have that data kicking around?

Well, the PS2 enjoyed some pretty healthy twilight years. GCN was already dead by the time of next-gen, and Microsoft killed their console off to support the 360.

I don't think it was quite comparable to the 2 year limbo situation this gen is facing (assuming MS and Sony's consoles even get released at the end of next year).

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

Why buy a retail copy of a game that requires a constant Internet connection to function? Enthusiam and nostalgia I guess.

oh I bought it retail mostly because I wanted to look nice next to D2 and the expansions. purely cosmetic reasons frankly and I didn't want to wait to download, wanted to play ASAP.

 

[John Harker]

*evil laugh*

Monster Hunter 3 landed at #11, and sold between 108k-143k.

In total? it's over 400k in N.A.

 

[AniHawk]

I want to say something along the lines of "Let's not forget this is a cyclical industry folks" but I wasn't following NPD during the dying days of the Gamecube/Xbox/PS2 and so I don't know if it ever got this bad. Does anyone have that data kicking around?

i don't recall it getting so bad that the top console was only selling 160k in a month, but the xbox and gc regularly were at the mid 100ks. the ps2 usually hung around the 200k-300k mark (and sometimes more) for many years. and actually, the xbox started challenging the ps2 for a few months before microsoft unceremoniously murdered it in front of a bunch of school children one gray december morn.

 

[PhatSaqs]

Low US sales helps the PS3 catch up to 360 since it's stronger in Europe (except for UK), and everywhere else. I think PS3 JP sales are about %50 of PS3 US sales this month, which is remarkable for such a small market.
As a console generation drags on, US market will go down first, followed by Europe, and then the rest of the world. These are the times for the PS3 to catch up worldwide.

Meanwhile, console gaming is dieing. Yay priorities....

 

[Ysiadmihi]

I would have bought Dragon's Dogma if it were on PC

Spoiler

digitally

 

[Bruno MB]

Peter Skerritt @PeterSkerritt

@kmartnintendork Lack of any Wii titles? Maybe. When you sell 70% fewer Wii units as compared to last May, there's something afoot.


Get to it gaf!

So Wii sold 71k units.

PS3 around 124k.

 

[Mrbob]

It boggles the mind just how much money Activision is leaving on the table by not porting D3 to every console imaginable.

Money to be sure, but probably not as much as you would think considering the PC version sold 6.3 million copies in the first week. It's not like Blizzard games require hefty hardware investment in the first place.