Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Don't see how this is different when PC developers started shifting to consoles.
Not to mention XBL and PSN fans won't accept shit online.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD November 2011 Sales Results [Update 7: Skyrim, CoD Wii, PC Retail Sales Up 57%]
- Thread starter Road
- Start date
Don't see how this is different when PC developers started shifting to consoles.
Not to mention XBL and PSN fans won't accept shit online.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
Being born in Nevada means I have every right to make "LOL Amercians YEEHA" references and jokes in my day to day life.
I still don't get where you guys get the info about Nintendo's budgets. We have no way of telling whether Wii Sports is cheaper than Mario Kart, or Super Mario Galaxy. Nintendo has to either create a supersized monstrosity of a 1st party or ask for help from 3rd parties.
Edit: By the way isn't 40k within the statistical uncertainty?
Salacious Crumb
Junior Member
That's a bit misleading though, Nintendo DS is an established brand in 2011, which wasn't the case in 04-05. The sales for the 3DS are fine, but I don't see them ramping up the same way they did with the DS, I don't think the 3DS will ever sell 3 million in a month.
cartman414
Member
Neither Apple nor Nintendo can afford to go by the razor and blade model, at least not nearly as much as Sony or Microsoft and their multiple divisions.
AdventureRacing
Member
Just as no one saw that happening with the DS. I'm not saying i think the 3DS will ever reach those highs but i think you would be foolish to write off such a scenario so early in its life cycle (especially when it is ramping up so much faster than the DS).
Apple has larger cash reserves than the U.S. treasury. They handily beat Microsoft in that regard, also.
cartman414
Member
Well they do now.
Still, Microsoft profits heavily off their software. Not to mention that they're not in the business of moving computer hardware like Apple is. Apple's hardware is their bread and butter.
06nbarnhill
Member
As I understand it Nintendo also has like 10 billion in cash reserves......none of them are exactly stressed financially (yet)
Count of Monte Sawed-Off
un33dab@dpu$$y
The rest of the world can't talk. They keep our shitty 3-D movies afloat no matter how shitty they are. Good job on making Gulliver's Travels profitable rest of the world.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Wii's decline really started in 2008.
From launch through Mario Kart/Wii Fit Nintendo kept a steady release schedule of games going, then crapped out in summer of 08 and pushed Animal Crossing as their big holiday release. It didn't impact them much then because there were still a lot of people wanting to play Mario Kart, Galaxy, and Smash that didn't already have the console so it was no biggie, but if you notice that's also when a lot of the enthusiasm about the Wii died out (For a while I think it really was the "cool" system even if there were a bunch of dudebros angsting about the death of gaming and whatever).
It may also have been kind of a perception thing because there was a second "wave" of sorts that started in 09 with Wii Sports Resort/New Super Mario Bros. Wii through DKC Returns at the end of 2010, but their goodwill was mostly gone and most of the 2010 games (SMG2, DKCR, Kirby, Metroid) weren't designed to attract new buyers as much as they were designed to appeal to people who already owned the Wii.
And god this past year has been fucking atrocious. 6 games released in NA, three of which came out in the past six weeks. Good lord.
It's an image issue they'll have to solve with Wii U. Hopefully their trend towards outsourcing (Grezzo on OOT3D, Retro on MK7) suggests that they're going to avoid that.
From launch through Mario Kart/Wii Fit Nintendo kept a steady release schedule of games going, then crapped out in summer of 08 and pushed Animal Crossing as their big holiday release. It didn't impact them much then because there were still a lot of people wanting to play Mario Kart, Galaxy, and Smash that didn't already have the console so it was no biggie, but if you notice that's also when a lot of the enthusiasm about the Wii died out (For a while I think it really was the "cool" system even if there were a bunch of dudebros angsting about the death of gaming and whatever).
It may also have been kind of a perception thing because there was a second "wave" of sorts that started in 09 with Wii Sports Resort/New Super Mario Bros. Wii through DKC Returns at the end of 2010, but their goodwill was mostly gone and most of the 2010 games (SMG2, DKCR, Kirby, Metroid) weren't designed to attract new buyers as much as they were designed to appeal to people who already owned the Wii.
And god this past year has been fucking atrocious. 6 games released in NA, three of which came out in the past six weeks. Good lord.
It's an image issue they'll have to solve with Wii U. Hopefully their trend towards outsourcing (Grezzo on OOT3D, Retro on MK7) suggests that they're going to avoid that.
DS was the successor to the GBA. *shrugs*
DS was really low its first year. It didn't really pick up until DSLite. Just found it a bit short-sighted to say that 3DS won't get to DS levels based on its first November when its first November was almost as good as the first two for DS. For reference, the first November for GBA was ~925K, and that system outpaced the PS2 for 2-3 years from its launch.
Can anyone do some Wii vs. PS3 GIFs in the GBA vs. PS3 GIF vein?
GIFs in an NPD thread? That would never fly.
Wait, what if someone were to take clips from old Star Trek: TNG episodes and subtitle them so that it appears as if the characters were talking about videogame consoles rather than intergalactic politics?
Nah, dumb idea.
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
So is COD officially the Madden of Activision?
I suspect that next year Activision will feel threatened by Battlefield and will pay large sums of money to obtain the exclusive rights to release games involving guns and soldiers.
kame-sennin
Member
I think this is an extremely accurate distillation of Nintendo's thinking on this issue. It's also something I used to believe, but my mind is starting to change. Specifically, I no longer agree with the idea that sequels need to offer a new dimension to the gameplay experience to justify their experience, or to ward off staleness. Look at the yearly or semi-yearly iterations of the COD, Uncharted, and Assassin's Creed franchises. Yes, each game is bigger than the last, expanding the game universe. But as far as I know, the core fundamentals remain in tact. More importantly, look at some of the most important games Nintendo has made:
Super Mario Bros.
Super Mario Bros 3
Super Mario World
New Super Mario Bros.
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
Super Mario Kart
Mario Kart DS
Mario Kart Wii
Mario Kart 7
The Legend of Zelda
A Link to the Past
Metroid
Metriod II
Super Metroid
Donkey Kong Country
Donkey Kong Country 2
Donkey Kong Country 3
Donkey Kong Country Returns
Super Smash Bros.
Super Smash Bros Melee
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
All of these games maintain the same gameplay framework of the original games and yet, with the exception of Metroid and Zelda, all of these franchises have modern installments that match or exceed the sales of earlier iterations. I skipped games that changed the core gameplay, but it should be noted that many (but not all) of those did not sell as well as the games listed. I used to believe that people would get bored of a franchise if the gameplay wasn't radically shaken up, which would cause the franchise to head into decline. But sales data seems to fly in the face of that theory. Over the course of the NES, SNES, DS, and Wii generations, customers seemed perfectly willing to buy multiple iterations of games with the same core mechanics. In fact, one could argue that changing the core mechanics of a franchise is more likely to cause sales decline, but that's a different subject.
My current feeling is that once a franchise has been established people want consistency in the gameplay experience. Why wouldn't they? If they wanted new gameplay, they'd buy a game from a different franchise. When people pick up a Super Mario Bros. game, they expect tight 2D platforming. When they pick up Mario Kart, they want an arcade kart racer. That's not to say that people want boring retreads. Expanding the game world and creating new scenarios seems to be an important part of driving sales for sequels. I also acknowledge that saturation is a factor, as Guitar Hero clearly showed. But I imagine the amount of sequels per gen that the market can bear varies based on game type and popularity.
So I do think that Nintendo can get away with releasing two Super Mario Bros., 2 DKCs, 2 Mario Karts, and maybe one or two entries in the Metroid and Zelda franchises per generation. The NES and SNES generation seem to support this, as do the sales of NSMB DS/NSMB Wii, and Mario Kart DS/Mario Kart Wii, which came out on different platforms, but within a short span of time.
This isn't to say that customers don't crave new gameplay mechanics. But I think new gameplay mechanics belong in new franchises. Changing the mechanics mid-franchise would be like introducing horror elements to the Star Wars franchise or a murder mystery into LotR. Every popular franchise should maintain the basic gameplay that made it popular (barring minor improvements) because that's what the franchise is known for. Sticking to the core concept allows the customer to be more confident in buying the latest installment of a popular series because they know it will perform the job they are trying to get done.
bigtroyjon
Member
Apple's cash reserves are greatly overstated. They have $26B in cash and short term investments. Microsoft has about $57B in cash and short term investments.
Apple has another $55B locked up in long term investments.
charlequin
Banned
"Afford" isn't generally the word you use for that
like would I say "I can't afford to get paid $5000/day to play videogames"
no I would not
DR2K
Banned
The DS isn't exactly Nintendo first hit portable.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
tight middle race, considering the games listed 3 thru 5 are half of 100k range apart
kame-sennin
Member
I disagree, quite strongly. It's all philosophical, but I don't agree with your premise at all. I think Nintendo gave up on Blue Ocean strategy because they had hoped Wii Sports gamers would graduate to 3D Mario, Zelda, and Metroid. That didn't happen, but by the time they realized, it was too late to change course.
The idea that the so-called "casual gamer" - the expanded audience - is fickle and impossible to cultivate over the long term flies in the face of empirical fact. In the 1980's, all gamers were new gamers. Every entertainment medium has to expand until it's become mainstream. Video games haven't accomplished that yet. Until that happens, there's always going to be a steady supply of non-customers that Nintendo can appeal to. Keeping them around is only a matter of making games that fulfill their needs.
I also don't think that it requires genius level innovation to make these hit games. Wii Sports came from the basic observation that families want to spend time with each other, that most video games are too complex for the whole family to enjoy, and that everybody understands the concept behind bowling or golf. That's not to diminish the accomplishment in making that game. Nintendo's execution and polish is a big part of what made that game stand out against its later imitators, but the concept grew from basic observations about customer behavior.
As for Apple, they make hardware, they don't make games. If you want to play Mario or Pokemon, you need a Nintendo console. Ultimately, it's the games that drive this industry. The threat Apple poses is overstated IF publishers like Nintendo can continue to create must-have games.
I argued in my last post that this isn't necessarily true. Also, in my view, console generations were created due to increased competition in the market. Nintendo was facing competitors with more advanced hardware and they feared their less advanced NES would be abandoned by their customers. Whether this was the right move at the time is debatable, but I think it's a poor strategy today.
06nbarnhill
Member
Is this real life?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=384933
Dec 2009 - 3.81 million Wii's Sold
6/10 of the best selling games that month from Nintendo and 5 on wii.
Decline started in 2008....lol....
gamergirly
Member
I thought that sounded a bit bizarre. Wii was still very much #1 in 2008 LOL
Not the case these days....Time for Wii U
ShockingAlberto
Member
Not gonna lie, I am really disappointed Assassin's Creed is selling as well as it is.
It is by far, in my opinion, the worst game in the series since Assassin's Creed PC (AC1 taking the original crown). It's glitchy, it's boring, it's failed to innovate despite dozens of interesting stealth and open-world games coming out since AC2 did.
Ubisoft continues to be rewarded for its efforts in mediocrity and I guess I'm the only one disappointed by that.
It is by far, in my opinion, the worst game in the series since Assassin's Creed PC (AC1 taking the original crown). It's glitchy, it's boring, it's failed to innovate despite dozens of interesting stealth and open-world games coming out since AC2 did.
Ubisoft continues to be rewarded for its efforts in mediocrity and I guess I'm the only one disappointed by that.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I guess I'm having a little trouble articulating this, but maybe I should say that 2008-onward laid the foundation for the Wii's recent decline.
Nintendo's major success this generation comes from being able to coast on evergreen titles like New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Mario Kart Wii, and the Wii ___ entries. Obviously, they're all really popular games that kept the system relevant for a long time, but I feel if Nintendo concentrated more on keeping pace with new game releases, they would have been able to attract more customers, hold onto the current ones, and enjoy a more lasting success, as opposed to scrambling to announce the Wii U (which didn't go over too well).
I guess it's more of a perception thing. The raw numbers show that it didn't really matter since they still made buckets of money off it, but I think if they'd managed to keep that 2007 output going through the rest of the console's lifespan, it would have been Nintendo that sold 1.7 million consoles this month and "Is Nintendo in trouble" wouldn't even be a valid discussion.
(for the record, I don't think they are, but "unsteady release schedule" is always a problem for any system and I don't think it's one Nintendo has overcome yet)
tl;dr: Nintendo's image declined with core customers because starting in 2008 their game production grinded to a halt for about a year, and you can trace their current predicament to that.
I'd say the reason that MS has had such a continuing success with the 360 is because they've kept the system relevant with a steady flow of games every year, something Nintendo hasn't done very well (the gap between DKCR and Kirby/Zelda was like a year). In fairness, MS also has much better third party support, but their first party output isn't bad either. Kinect probably gave them a boost too, but I don't know if it was crucial to their success.
cr_blah_blah
Member
I happened to be watching X-Play the other day and apparently it's going head-to-head with Zelda for Viewer Game of the Year after a viewer voting tournament. That seems f'n insane.
Alx
Member
All AC games since AC2 are self-assumed add-ons rather than sequels : same character, same time period, same gameplay (that's why they're not numbered).
I'm expecting a lot from AC3, but I'm not really bothered by ACB and ACR being less innovative, they're just means of getting more AC and visiting new cities while waiting for the sequel.
cartman414
Member
Hence the qualifier "not nearly as much as Sony or Microsoft".
Could they sell hardware at that much of a loss? Yes. Would it be a good idea? Not really.
kame-sennin
Member
I thought he meant the software that killed momentum/failed to maintain momentum released in 2008. That's true. A console like Wii won't loose steam over night.
This is all relatively recent though. Nintendo has had one bad year. They've had intermittent software droughts throughout the gen, which has been normal for them since the 64, but 2011 saw it all come to a grinding halt. The lost momentum drastically. Why? What caused it?
Well it was a combination of things, really. The 3DS required a lot of attention, even before it started to flounder. They also had to piece together the Wii U ideas they've been having for the past few years into something somewhat presentable. I think 2011 is a perfect example of nintendo simply being stretched too thin. Most of their teams are either working on either 3DS titles or Wii U titles because they're the future and the Wii's time is fading. Whether it was planned from the beginning or not, I don't know, but I think nintendo was willing to let the Wii shrivel up this year and expected to ride on the 3DS's high flying success all the way to mid 2012 and the Wii U launch.
But that didn't happen. The 3DS didn't fly off the shelves like it was supposed to. But it was already too late. Software development had already shifted gears, and the Wii was unable to make up for poor portable sales because they had never planned for it to do so.
In the end though, I think they're perfectly content with letting the Wii coast this year with middling sales. Brand strength be damned, it doesn't matter at all as long as the Wii U launches with crazy good software that people want. Even if the Wii has slowly started to fade from the forefront of consumer consciousness, the brand is still strong. The Wii U is going to be the NEW Wii next year. As confusing as the E3 presentation was, I don't think people will have too much trouble realizing that it's a new product. If anything, the waning popularity of the Wii will help distance it from the newer product. Every new cycle is a opportunity to reestablish product identity. I have no idea what nintendo is working on, but I'm sure they're going to try to recreate another launch title with the same monumentally massive appeal that Wii Sports had. That title is NOT going to be pikmin 3. It's going to be something we haven't seen yet.
I don't know whether or not they'll pull it off, but here's to hoping.
Gamer @ Heart
Member
Yep. 08 was a very weak second half. Iwata even commented on it in investor reports. That 09 though was a crazy comeback, and they kept it rolling in 10.
None of that matter though. Opinions for many GAFers here have been set on the Wii and numbers and logic wont change that.
The Antitype
Banned
This is absolutely what is happening.
yeah.....
StoppedInTracks
Member
So is this the first NPD where everyone is happy?
MS cause it has cemented its position as #1 this gen.
Sony cause it almost doubled last Nov sales.
Nintendo cause 3DS is on fire.
MS cause it has cemented its position as #1 this gen.
Sony cause it almost doubled last Nov sales.
Nintendo cause 3DS is on fire.
I'm an expert
Formerly worldrevolution. The only reason I am nice to anyone else is to avoid being banned.
What's hard to believe is people stuck with the series after AC1. AC2 is of course leaps and bounds better, but man I don't know how people even gave it a shot after 1. Had they started with 2 as the first game I'd at least understand why the series became popular. But that series as a whole is the most confusing thing to me this generation. It's eye candy with very shallow gameplay.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
It's interesting to note that AC1 actually had the best debut of the series by a far margin (980k on the 360 and 377k on the PS3), and it did this despite a way smaller user base. So some people may have been turned off by the first, just not that many. I, for instance, didn't like it but knew there was the foundations for something great, which is why I ultimately gave AC2 a shot.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah that's pretty true as well.
I'm of the mindset that Nintendo's fortunes would be a lot better right now if they'd kept the ball rolling with the Wii and DS instead of jumping ship to the 3DS and Wii U right away and conforming to their 5 year life cycle. It probably would have been tougher for the Wii since gamers tend to have higher expectations of consoles than of handhelds, but who knows. Skyward Sword and Xenoblade prove they've still got it.
My Nintendo fanboyism has kind of sobered over the years. I still really love the Wii, but I do recognize its faults as well as Nintendo's.Gamer @ Heart said:
Yeah the problem is you could Wii-out in the mean time....
It's too late to start the next thing when your sales are starting to get down....
COD is something we have never seen before. i remember when some people already claimed the series is going to fail when the old people of infinity ward left them after mw2. but the series became bigger and bigger... and i'm really curious about next years outcome.
1 trillion copies sold
Wii didn't start losing stream until like a year after people realized it wasn't getting any new games.
There's no reason to suspect this will happen with 360.
gimmmick
Member
Anyone know the break down for mw3 numbers for each console?
Great numbers all around, MS is doing such an amazing job on keeping an aging system in check with consumers. Great content, and a relaunch of the system's life span with kinnect is doing wonders with the console. My favorite console this generation by a long fucking mile.
Great numbers all around, MS is doing such an amazing job on keeping an aging system in check with consumers. Great content, and a relaunch of the system's life span with kinnect is doing wonders with the console. My favorite console this generation by a long fucking mile.
BoobPhysics101
Banned
We've definitely seen Call of Duty before. We get older, Call of Duty stays the same.
AdventureRacing
Member
Or maybe MS understand that this is the perfect time to release the successor to the 360. The xbox brand right now is stronger than ever and is having a surge in popularity towards the end of it's life. You don't want to let your brand slip (like nintendo) before releasing your next console. They should really be aiming for more of a PS1-PS2 transition and keep their momentum going into next gen.
Probably 60/40, like it always is.
From what I've seen, people really like the series in general. The look, the fell, they liked Altair too. Plus, during the 2 years wait guess expectations and hopes were built.
At the same time, I wonder if it's a combination of people liking AC and/or people liking Ezio. For as much as many around here are like "ugh Ezio sucks, Ezio this, Ezio that", in general people really liked Ezio. After ACII, with Brotherhood and Revelations; many had this "tradition" in their Facebooks to change their name to [You name here] Auditore da Firenze; or the profile pictures with Ezio's covered face; and so on.
I guess, is the same as the people that wonder "why Call of Duty sells", or the (sometimes) weekly "Why GTAIV is still one of the most played Xbox 360 games?". Many people, just like something and as long as what they like is actually good is no biggie. Granted, quality changes depending n who you ask; but that comes with the territory.
Looking at the debut months in the US, seems they have a loyal fanbase of sorts..so far:
First NPDs:
AC: 1.3 million (2007)
ACII: 1.2 million (2009)
ACB: 1.1 million (2010)
ACR: 1.2 million (2011)
walking fiend
Member
9m is just so much that it is not shocking anymore. I mean, it is like the saying tell a lie so big that everyone believe...9m!