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NPD Sales Results for March 2015 [Up1: Nintendo numbers, PS4 placing]

L

Liabe Brave

Member
Malitik Sabu said:
Weekly doesn't tell us much because monthly position add things up and place them. Weekly is a specific area only. We have no idea if 40 one week is less or more than the 40 of another.
Click to expand...
Of course. It's a fool's errand to try and predict actual numbers from Amazon, even from their monthly charts. Weeklies are even less reliable, for many reasons.

My point was, what does that say about you trying to analyze hourly results? They're even more meaningless.
 
M

Malitik Sabu

Banned
Liabe Brave said:
Of course. It's a fool's errand to try and predict actual numbers from Amazon, even from their monthly charts. Weeklies are even less reliable, for many reasons.

My point was, what does that say about you trying to analyze hourly results? They're even more meaningless.
Click to expand...

NO, because they have all been consistent for the last 3 weeks in the area I am talking about except for one thing. Because regardless of how much changes in terms of number, we do know based on ranking which is higher.

I also said that we should wait for monthly to update.
 
The Mad Draklor

The Mad Draklor

Member
Javin98 said:
Wait, The Shogun was banned?! That's shocking and disappointing. I love how he gives us some info on the current trends of sales, but I do find him slightly slanted towards XBox. Still pretty important to us regardless. Guess we're gonna have to rely on Abdiel, then.
Click to expand...

I thought people already knew The Shogun was banned >_< I haven't been active on GAF until now, so I have no idea what happened to him.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Malitik Sabu said:
No, because that hasn't updated. So the last nearly 3 weeks of hourly, which has been pretty consistent outside ACU and the MCC bundle switching place, is pretty relevant.

But again as I told Javin, way to much switching between Halo and ACU, when the latter doesn't seem to exist outside of Amazon.

Then of course you have the TLOU bundle which is finally kicking the door down and is in the top 30.
Click to expand...
The monthly rank is updated up to Week of April 20, 2015.

It is waiting the last week numbers Week of April 27, 2015 and the this week numbers (it is not ended yet).

So with three weeks of data we have:

Best PS4 #29
Best Xbone #45

PS. PS4 was never so low in Amazon ranking from what I see... it was always close to TOP10.
 
L

Liabe Brave

Member
Malitik Sabu said:
NO, because they have all been consistent for the last 3 weeks in the area I am talking about except for one thing.
Click to expand...
And any such "consistency" is meaningless, for the same reason you gave about weeklies versus monthlies: in separate periods, the same rank isn't necessarily the same value. And if you doubt weeklies versus monthlies (a 4x loss in temporal smoothing), then why put any stock at all in hourlies versus weeklies (a 168x drop)?

Yes, you said to wait for the final monthly update...but at the same time you're working up an elaborate series of guesses regarding the hourly data. "I don't know why TLOU hasn't picked up the slack", "Battlefront's hourlies added together don't match its monthly rank", "ACU and MCC bundles switch places for no reason", "It doesn't match with other data", etc. etc. This is all needless hand-wringing, with one answer: the Amazon hourlies don't tell us squat.
 
M

Malitik Sabu

Banned
ethomaz said:
The monthly rank is updated up to Week of April 20, 2015.

It is waiting the last week numbers Week of April 27, 2015 and the this week numbers (it is not ended yet).

So with three weeks of data we have:

Best PS4 #29
Best Xbone #45

PS. PS4 was never so low in Amazon ranking from what I see... it was always close to TOP10.
Click to expand...


So over a week then. Wait last weeks numbers is the week of the 20th, this weeks numbers is the 27th, 20th is already up.

Anywho, my initial prediction was a week, but it's more than that slightly according to your numbers. So we really do need to wait for Monthly.

I'm interested in how high Blops 3 charts. If it's in the top 50 it got a LOT of pre-orders.
 
M

Malitik Sabu

Banned
Liabe Brave said:
And any such "consistency" is meaningless, for the same reason you gave about weeklies versus monthlies: in separate periods, the same rank isn't necessarily the same value. And if you doubt weeklies versus monthlies (a 4x loss in temporal smoothing), then why put any stock at all in hourlies versus weeklies (a 168x drop)?

Yes, you said to wait for the final monthly update...but at the same time you're working up an elaborate series of guesses regarding the hourly data. "I don't know why TLOU hasn't picked up the slack", "Battlefront's hourlies added together don't match its monthly rank", "ACU and MCC bundles switch places for no reason", "It doesn't match with other data", etc. etc. This is all needless hand-wringing, with one answer: the Amazon hourlies don't tell us squat.
Click to expand...

You're thinking too much into numbers, it was never about that, it's about ranking placement by number not how much units are sold, The hourly for the last 3 weeks is consistent.

ZhugeEX said:
Amazon is not an indicator of total market performance.

It is a good indicator of Amazon performance and general trends.
Click to expand...

We using it for ranking placement, at least I am, no numbers.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Malitik Sabu said:
So over a week then. Wait last weeks numbers is the week of the 20th, this weeks numbers is the 27th, 20th is already up.

Anywho, my initial prediction was a week, but it's more than that slightly according to your numbers. So we really do need to wait for Monthly.

I'm interested in how high Blops 3 charts. If it's in the top 50 it got a LOT of pre-orders.
Click to expand...
Last week ended in 27th... this week I mean started with two days already.

NPD April is 4 or 5 weeks month?
 
M

Malitik Sabu

Banned
ethomaz said:
Last week ended in 27th... this week I mean started with two days already.

NPD April is 4 or 5 weeks month?
Click to expand...

Using the guy above links, the Amazon weekly charts all start on Monday, so using his info I am assuming that means Amazon does not consider the 26th the same week at the 27th.

April is 4 weeks. I don't know about NPD though, probably also 4.

5Twist said:
Thus far, but I think its streak will end next month.
Click to expand...

Why?
 
C

cakely

Member
I'm getting some deja-vu here: A new account has its first post five days ago and suddenly starts filling up an NPD thread with amazon-related speculation.
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
cakely said:
I'm getting some deja-vu here: A new account has its first post five days ago and suddenly starts filling up an NPD thread with amazon-related speculation.
Click to expand...

You're telling me.

I mean I get it, Amazon is an indicator of general trends etc...

But trying to analyse it in depth to create a quantitative outcome for NPD or the US market is pointless.
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
CadetMahoney said:
But aren't consoles selling at a faster rate than last gen launch aligned?
Click to expand...

Your comment prompted me to post this.

US%20TOTAL%20INSTALL_zpsnpo0tq1h.jpg


Gen 6 (72.7m) - PS2/Xbox/GameCube
Gen 7 (111m) - PS3/360/Wii
Gen 8 (18.5m) - PS4/One/Wii U
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
ethomaz said:
The monthly rank is updated up to Week of April 20, 2015.

It is waiting the last week numbers Week of April 27, 2015 and the this week numbers (it is not ended yet).

So with three weeks of data we have:

Best PS4 #29
Best Xbone #45

PS. PS4 was never so low in Amazon ranking from what I see... it was always close to TOP10.
Click to expand...

I saw the same thing. I was told it was because of the SKU switch, which might be true if thrones bundle is moving up now.
 
M

Malitik Sabu

Banned
ZhugeEX said:
You're telling me.

I mean I get it, Amazon is an indicator of general trends etc...

But trying to analyse it in depth to create a quantitative outcome for NPD or the US market is pointless.
Click to expand...

Um, again, I was never trying to use Amazon for numbers. I haven't even specified any numbers.
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
Welfare said:
Wii U holding 8th gen back.
Click to expand...
Chobel said:
Not looking good for Gen 8
Click to expand...

Yeh, Wii U is holding this gen back.

The Xbox One and PS4 are doing better than the PS3/360 at the same time but the Wii.... well it was the Wii and is doing better than both the PS4 and Xbox One at the same point in time.

But still early days.

Malitik Sabu said:
Um, again, I was never trying to use Amazon for numbers. I haven't even specified any numbers.
Click to expand...

If you haven't posted numbers, then why would you reply to my post. Surely you'd know that my post wasn't aimed at you....
 
E

Elios83

Member
Chobel said:
Not looking good for Gen 8
Click to expand...

Yep Wii U failed and Xbox One is doing poorly worldwide.
PS4 can't offset such steep declines by its competitors alone, so it's obvious that gen8 won't hold a candle against gen7 numbers when all three manufacturers were successful.
The market situation is more similar to gen6 with the difference that now there are other important gaming options like iOS/Android.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
ZhugeEX said:
I mean I get it, Amazon is an indicator of general trends etc...

But trying to analyse it in depth to create a quantitative outcome for NPD or the US market is pointless.
Click to expand...
Of course it is. No one would hopefully try to start calculating, but it is a nice way to get a feeling for what's happening, who is leading and how huge a gap might be.
If it was possible to really calculate the NPD results even approximately from the amazon charts, then NPD would have a huge problem and many GAF-members would have much less fun.
 
M

Malitik Sabu

Banned
Elios83 said:
Yep Wii U failed and Xbox One is doing poorly worldwide.
PS4 can't offset such steep declines by its competitors alone, so it's obvious that gen8 won't hold a candle against gen7 numbers when all three manufacturers were successful.
The market situation is more similar to gen6 with the difference that now there are other important gaming options like iOS/Android.
Click to expand...

At the moment the Xbox is still ahead of the 360, so it's really just the Wii U doing very poorly and PS4 and Xbox making all the effort. By now the Wii would be at around 25-30 million sold.

Xbox One and the PS4 combined are only slightly more than what the Wii had achieved by itself. Especially as the year ends.
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
Malitik Sabu said:
At the moment the Xbox is still ahead of the 360, so it's really just the Wii U doing very poorly and PS4 and Xbox making all the effort. By now the Wii would be at around 25-30 million sold.

Xbox One and the PS4 combined are only slightly more than what the Wii had achieved by itself. Especially as the year ends.
Click to expand...

What are you talking about?

Worldwide or USA?

In the USA the Wii would have sold 8.9m when aligned with the PS4 and Xbox One which has sold 14.5m combined when aligned with the Wii launch.
 
M

Malitik Sabu

Banned
ZhugeEX said:
What are you talking about?

Worldwide or USA?

In the USA the Wii would have sold 8.9m when aligned with the PS4 and Xbox One which has sold 14.5m combined when aligned with the Wii launch.
Click to expand...

I was talking WW, was your chart for USA?

Well that changes everything then, disregard.
 
E

Elios83

Member
Malitik Sabu said:
At the moment the Xbox is still ahead of the 360, so it's really just the Wii U doing very poorly and PS4 and Xbox making all the effort. By now the Wii would be at around 25-30 million sold.

Xbox One and the PS4 combined are only slightly more than what the Wii had achieved by itself. Especially as the year ends.
Click to expand...

Problem is that XB1 won't hold the comparison against the 360 for long. It had a really front loaded launch which is helping a lot but the console clearly won't have the same success of the 360 (infact I doubt it will do more than 40m units LTD), the situation is similar to people who said that 3DS was ahead of the DS for the first year or two so yeah...that graph is gonna get much uglier than it already is right now.
But it's not that relevant because the market is just different so a traditional generational comparison among Sony/MS/Nintendo is interesting but ultimately misleading. We can't really discount the PS2-like success of the PS4 and the amazing growth of mobile platforms for gaming like iOs/Android and the PC platforms like Steam, just because NIntendo and MS did not find the success they hoped for this round.
 
M

Malitik Sabu

Banned
Elios83 said:
Problem is that XB1 won't hold the comparison against the 360 for long. It had a really front loaded launch which is helping a lot but the console clearly won't have the same success of the 360 (infact I doubt it will do more than 40m units LTD), the situation is similar to people who said that 3DS was ahead of the DS for the first year or two so yeah...that graph is gonna get much uglier than it already is right now.
But it's not that relevant because the market is just different so a traditional generational comparison among Sony/MS/Nintendo is interesting but ultimately misleading. We can't really discount the PS2-like success of the PS4 and the amazing growth of mobile platforms for gaming like iOs/Android and the PC platforms like Steam, just because NIntendo and MS did not find the success they hoped for this round.
Click to expand...

That depends on how big this holiday is and if QB does anything since if I'm correct, they moved QB out the holiday season.
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
Malitik Sabu said:
I was talking WW, was your chart for USA?

Well that changes everything then, disregard.
Click to expand...

The title of the chart in my post says USA.

Even if you're talking about worldwide then your post still doesn't make perfect sense.

Taking end of 2014 numbers, worldwide sales for Wii was 20.14m where as worldwide sales for PS4 and Xbox One reached 32 million.


Anyway, here are annual sales for each generation in the USA. As you can see the Wii combined with the 360 in its later life ensured that the 7th gen had the longest gen and despite a slow start ended with the highest sales by far.

Annual%20USA%20sell%20through%20all_zpsy8pb7hg3.jpg

*Millions of units sold per year, per generation.


Gen 5 - 50m
Gen 6 - 73m (excl dreamcast)
Gen 7 - 111m
Gen 8 - 18.5m
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Malitik Sabu said:
But oddly still no actual release date, not even an eta from what I can find.
Click to expand...

It never had a release date to begin with.

2016 is actually looking good with Scalebound, Crackdown, Gears, Quantum Break, and others that could be announced. More interesting than 2015.
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
Welfare said:
QB is a 2016 title.

2016 is going to be

interesting.
Click to expand...

2016 looks amazing for PS4 exclusives. FFXV(not exclusive, but will push sales like one), SFV(similar effect as FFXV), Uncharted 4, GOW4(probably), Morpheus, Horizon(likely), GT7(likely). We know things can change quickly though.
 
M

Malitik Sabu

Banned
ZhugeEX said:
The title of the chart in my post says USA.

Even if you're talking about worldwide then your post still doesn't make perfect sense.

Taking end of 2014 numbers, worldwide sales for Wii was 20.14m where as worldwide sales for PS4 and Xbox One reached 32 million.


Anyway, here are annual sales for each generation in the USA. As you can see the Wii combined with the 360 in its later life ensured that the 7th gen had the longest gen and despite a slow start ended with the highest sales by far.

Annual%20USA%20sell%20through%20all_zpsy8pb7hg3.jpg

*Millions of units sold per year, per generation.


Gen 5 - 50m
Gen 6 - 73m (excl dreamcast)
Gen 7 - 111m
Gen 8 - 18.5m
Click to expand...

I'm talking about Wii sales to this point in time. Didn't the Wii near 40 by the end of the year aligned with this one?
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
Malitik Sabu said:
I'm talking about Wii sales to this point in time. Didn't the Wii near 40 by the end of the year aligned with this one?
Click to expand...

You're going to need to expand on this one.

The Wii launched November 2006 and sold 20 million by January 2008.

The PS4 and Xbox One launched November 2013 and sold 32 million combined by January 2015.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
This is the NPD thread, so I thought this could be interesting for folks around here

Preorders for Mighty No. 9 have just started on Amazon, and they're quite skewed towards PlayStation...and not just PlayStation

Mighty No.9
Wii U - 134th
PS4 - 159th
Xbox One - 1,616th

It's a small game, sure...but seeing Xbox One so far from the other SKUs, and Wii U/PS4 being not that far (with Wii U on top!) is surprising.
 
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