redblack85
Member
every year is always the year of Sony then refer all
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NPD Sales Results for March 2015 [Up1: Nintendo numbers, PS4 placing]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
every year is always the year of Sony then refer all
Morpheus needs to have a big game to launch with. I'm hoping this is where Media Molecule comes in.
The Mad Draklor
Member
While the disparity is large between the PS4 and XBO versions, Amazon is not a reliable predictor for relative software sales. February NPD perfectly proves that. Amazon had The Order way above both versions of Evolve, but NPD showed Evolve above The Order.
Malitik Sabu
Banned
I thought the wii sold 20 million within the time frame the PS4 sold 20 million???
Welp numbers and me don't go well so disregard.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
That is pretty much true these days regardless of AAA exclusives.
It did.
Which is the same timeframe I used. I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say here.
You can't keep a product running at healthy levels when it's holding on thanks to 2 months of the year in 1 country.
MS has to find a way to stabilize their sales instead of relying on Holidays and sales/ discounts.
On another note, with more than a year of data outside of launch now, I have gathered two set of datas. On one end, the Amazon US monthly rankings (inverted on a base 100, so that a low rank is actually better than a high one), and on the other the NPD sales data.
As expected, it shows two things:
- So far, the relative rankings have been correct
- It would be foolish to try to determine actual sales based on rankings
2014-2015 Amazon Monthly rankings (inverted on a base 100, so that higher is better. Rank 1 = 100, Rank 0 = Rank 100 or beyond)):
disclosure: For the purpose of clarity, this chart only takes in account the -1- top SKU for the month, and disregards pre-orders)
2014-2015 Monthly NPD sales:
In particular, of note:
- The biggest Amazon ranking gap between PS4 and XB1 was in Summer 14. The actual sales did not reflect this.
- The gap in Amazon rankings -increased- in December vs November (14), while the actual sales did the opposite.
- February saw the XB1 almost on par with Amazon rankings, while the sales did not reflect that at all (the closest months in actual sales were Feb 14, August 14 and Jan 15)
Let my tag be a lesson to you and anyone else trying to use Amazon charts to gauge software sales. Don't make my mistake. You still have time. Correct your logic before it's too late.
Amazon rankings did predict PS4's September sales quite well. 2014 sales of the Destiny bundle (which included pre-orderers) were higher than any XB1 SKU sales putting it alone at more than 300k. Add the 200ish k from regular SKU ranking being stable and you're close to its actual sales of 538k.
So as soon as I post this -
We get people doing the exact thing I said not to do.... I mean come on people.
We get people doing the exact thing I said not to do.... I mean come on people.
Not really that surprising given the genre and legacy that Mighty No. 9 has... It's, essentially, the spiritual successor to Mega Man, so treat its potential audience as if it were the Mega Man audience. It's a platformer which is a genre that sells best on Nintendo platforms and both Nintendo and PlayStation platforms got a multitude of Mega Man games in their past, while Xbox platforms only got Mega Man Anniversary Collection and Mega Man 9 & 10 which both Nintendo and PlayStation platforms got.
While Mighty No. 9 could do great on Xbox One and Amazon should not be the sole indicator of how well a certain game will do on a particular platform, it is obvious that certain genres sell better on certain systems than others and Mighty No. 9 is not in the genre or style that Xbox fans normally buy.
Sangetsu-II
Member
I don't get why people are pushing Amazon Charts so heavily as a predicting tool to Xbox One's favor. The PS4 has stock issues so even if XBO is on top this month, PS4 will win NPD every month until either October or If XBO gets another price-drop before October.
Has anyone not noticed that PS4 has noticible games coming all these summer months exclusive wise and Xbox has literally only 3 games this Holiday (It's last game was State of Decay and that won't push units for April, May & Summer).
Has anyone not noticed that PS4 has noticible games coming all these summer months exclusive wise and Xbox has literally only 3 games this Holiday (It's last game was State of Decay and that won't push units for April, May & Summer).
Welfare
Member
Amazon would not actually be a good indicator for the Xbox One this because of the Gamestop and Best Buy deals that went on this month.
At Gamestop, for 3 weeks, if you traded in a last gen console you get an Xbox One for $225 and right now Best Buy has this.
Btw abdiel how has this deal been doing?
At Gamestop, for 3 weeks, if you traded in a last gen console you get an Xbox One for $225 and right now Best Buy has this.
Btw abdiel how has this deal been doing?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I'm gonna say it is good indicator(for the leader) until it fails to predict the winner in a given month.
Thanks for clarifying. I always appreciate info coming from you.
I honestly had no idea....
Malitik Sabu
Banned
Didn't the Wii hit 40 by the end of the next year? Because by this point if true, I thought the Wii Would be at around 30+ by now, but maybe I gave the Wii a bit too much credit for sales.
Like I said my numbers are all over the place, france, paris, england. So just take with a grain.
wolfhowwl
Banned
He's gone? Damn, that's too bad.
Both companies have different strategies (specifically on the Western Markets, as in EU/ NA as discussed here) and we will have to wait until December this year to see who applied the best one (so far it's been Sony, when looking at numbers).
For MS, the 2015 strategy we can see for now (a lot can change at E3) is:
- Evolve Co-Marketing
- Witcher 3 Co-Marketing
- a few 1st party/ second party exclusives here and there (Screamride, State of Decay)
- A few high Profile Indies (Below, Ori, Cuphead, Inside...)
- Rise of the Tomb Raider Holiday exclusivity
- Forza 6 for the Holidays
... and of course Halo 5 for the Holidays as well
For Sony, the 2015 strategy we can see so far appears to be
- 1st/ 2nd party exclusives all year long (The Order 1886, Bloodborne, MLB 15, Until Dawn, Tearaway Unfolded, God of War 3 remastered, Ratchet and Clank remake...)
- Japanese exclusives here and there (Toukiden Kiwami, Persona 5, Disagea 5, Godzilla ...)
- Tons of indies, some more or less exclusive (generally "less"), with some quite high profile one (NMS, Rapture, Rime, Tomorrow Children...)
- Star Wars Battlefront co-Marketing
- Batman Arkham Knight co-Marketing and special PS4 bundle
- Destiny expansion co-Marketing
Obviously, for either of them, more to come at E3. The big unknowns wil lbe "Big Holiday period exclusive AAA" for Sony, And "Price drops" for either/ both? imo
PS: Before the "where's MGS V? Where's COD?!" - I believe that both of them are actually only rumors at this point for the US (and yes I know that Sony has the MGS V PS4 bundle in
StrongBlackVine
Banned
The bundle isn't just Japan. It said Asia.
I just didn't want to presume, as I have seen it a lot, that Japan/ Asia co-marketing would automatically equate to US co-marketing deal
(although it is probable)Sangetsu-II
Member
He also forgot Arkham Night PS4 exclusivity in Japan too.
I probably should have specified (thought it was pretty obvious though) that I was talking about the strategies in the US/ Western world (EU/ NA).
Japan is such a peculiar market on so many levels (not a negative btw, just a consideration) that I wouldn't presume to analyze the strategy of either firms over there.
We also see so many products/ bundles that we won't ever see in the rest of the world (beside imports), that it makes it rather difficult to draw comparisons, on either software or hardware imo.
Sangetsu-II
Member
I see now you where only talking about US but you still shouldn't think too lightly of PS4 in Japan though since it almost has 1.5 million units sold there any exclusive marketing their and in Asian territories will make a difference in the WW number seeing as XBO really doesn't bold well in Asian markets.
Square2015
Member
Going into year three for Nintendo's past five generations.
March '15 compared to March '09, March '04, March '99, and March '94...
*Click to make bigger*
If there is interest, I'll write up a historical software report.
March '15 compared to March '09, March '04, March '99, and March '94...
*Click to make bigger*
If there is interest, I'll write up a historical software report.
The Mad Draklor
Member
I don't know why some people are putting so much stock on Amazon. The OP in the March NPD Predictions thread stated that Amazon only encompasses a tiny fraction of US sales (~5%).
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Because it has correctly identified the NPD hardware winner every month this generation. Outside of that it isn't worth much, but it is still something.
That would be very interesting.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
But that 6% of the market is ALL that counts! </sarcasm>
Mpl brings some pretty interesting knowledge to the Media Create threads, so I'm pretty sure he was just posting it b/c it was interesting
. Btw, did we ever get Xenoblade Wii #s back when it was released? I'm curious because recently Iwata mentioned the game sold more in the West than Japan (which I kind of suspected anyways).Going into year three for Nintendo's past five generations.
March '15 compared to March '09, March '04, March '99, and March '94...
*Click to make bigger*
If there is interest, I'll write up a historical software report.
I'll second the interest.
theprodigy
Member
But that 6% of the market is ALL that counts! </sarcasm>
Mpl brings some pretty interesting knowledge to the Media Create threads, so I'm pretty sure he was just posting it b/c it was interesting
lol
nope!
Well, there was MGS IV bundle in US.
Yep total PS4 shipments at 22.3m at the end of March.
16m PS4 forecast for next fiscal year compared to 14.8m this year, so a growth forecast.
3.3m Vitas shipped during the past fiscal year,no forecast given for PS3 and Vita for the next fiscal year.
48.1 billion yen operating profit for the gaming division in FY2014 compared to a 18.8 billion yen operating loss in FY2013.
theprodigy
Member
guys where's the link
Chobel
Member
Only 8% increase in sales? $100 price cut for PS4 seems out of question now.
Sony always forecasts low.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
You can't keep a product running at healthy levels when it's holding on thanks to 2 months of the year in 1 country.
MS has to find a way to stabilize their sales instead of relying on Holidays and sales/ discounts.
On another note, with more than a year of data outside of launch now, I have gathered two set of datas. On one end, the Amazon US monthly rankings (inverted on a base 100, so that a low rank is actually better than a high one), and on the other the NPD sales data.
As expected, it shows two things:
- So far, the relative rankings have been correct
- It would be foolish to try to determine actual sales based on rankings
2014-2015 Amazon Monthly rankings (inverted on a base 100, so that higher is better. Rank 1 = 100, Rank 0 = Rank 100 or beyond)):
disclosure: For the purpose of clarity, this chart only takes in account the -1- top SKU for the month, and disregards pre-orders)
2014-2015 Monthly NPD sales:
In particular, of note:
- The biggest Amazon ranking gap between PS4 and XB1 was in Summer 14. The actual sales did not reflect this.
- The gap in Amazon rankings -increased- in December vs November (14), while the actual sales did the opposite.
- February saw the XB1 almost on par with Amazon rankings, while the sales did not reflect that at all (the closest months in actual sales were Feb 14, August 14 and Jan 15)
I genuinely appreciate your attempt to be analytical, it's
Impressive. But could have saved yourself a lot of time if people just listened to me when I said a dozen times looking at Amazon rankings as any meaningful sales indicator is a huge waste of time
No on the contrary it's a real possibility.
A percentage doesn't mean a lot when you want to sell 16m units in a single year which is a major goal. PS2 did 18m in its best year ever at 199$.
Also profits are expected to slightly decline in the gaming division to 40 billion yen (although they're officially blaming PS3 and the strong us dollar for that).
Btw it's all but confirmed that there will be a price cut this year
No on the contrary it's a real possibility.
A percentage doesn't mean a lot when you want to sell 16m units in a single year which is a major goal. PS2 did 18m in its best year ever at 199$.
Also profits are expected to slightly decline in the gaming division to 40 billion yen (although they're officially blaming PS3 and the strong us dollar for that).
Btw it's all but confirmed that there will be a price cut this year
PS2 did 22.5m in its best year
Ok I stand corrected I remember that one of the peak years at 199$ was around 18m.
I don't have the datas I'm going by memory, what PS2 did during the fiscal year when they cut the price to 199$?
PS2 dropped to $199 at the beginning of FY2002/03.
That was the peak year it sold 22.5m
Ok if you have the datas about PS2 shipments by fiscal year please post it =)
Sangetsu-II
Member
Are you even following your tags purpose? lol
Chobel
Member
I Need more tags...
But Seriously, 8% is really small increase. Either Sony is very conservative in their predictions, or $100 price cut is not gonna happen.
Malitik Sabu
Banned
Anybody have wii sales for the first few years?