SatelliteOfLove
Member
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NPD Sales Results for September 2014 [Up1: Smash/HW/MK8, Destiny stats, 3DS HW]
- Thread starter Nirolak
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You don't have to know what's going on to know stuff's going on.
Clockblockers
Member
Not sure about the rest of world but US companies, at least the one's I've worked at, run their Fiscal Years from July to June, I don't know the book answer but I'm sure an accountant can give an answer as to why
Liabe Brave
Member
Well actually, there are at least two other posters in every NPD thread who have access to the numbers, and occasionally leak some of them. They just leak a lot less than Aquamarine and creamsugar, so they tend not to be brought up or even noticed by the usual GAF conversation.
Companies vary in how they approach this. Both my current employer and my last one are Fortune 500 companies, but they have different fiscal calendars (neither of which ends in June). I'm not really sure why this is.
SeventhSon
Member
I UNDERSTAND
Nightengale
Member
It's somewhere in this thread, if I'm not wrong.
Anyway, the fact that it didn't chart automatically means it's sales are below 1X0k, (forgot what's the X supposed to be ), which is not exactly a flattering figure.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
No more numbers.
The X360 + XOne FH2 numbers totaled around 120k, according to posts in this thread.
Kssio_Aug
Member
Oh, ok, I see... but thats only physical copies right? If not, there's something wrong. Like someone else mentioned here at a leaderboard on the XB1 version there are already 460k players. So I guess summed up with X360 version there are quite more then 500k physical + digital. Except if I'm missing something.
That's probably WW total. In the US, FH2 totaled 120k across both Xbox consoles.
There won't be a FH3.
SwiftDeath
Member
You realize that these NPD threads are for the US market only right? I mean the XB1 isn't doing well really outside of the US but it does have some sales in the rest of the world. I'm sure FH2 has good digital sales but I'd be shocked if they were higher than 30% of retail sales tbh
hodayathink
Member
Trust me, I know who they are, and one has already commented in this thread about this whole situation. I just feel that if the two most public leakers have decided to back away from the spotlight (for fear of possible NPD reprisal), then why would either of the other two (who are generally here every month for the start of the thread or close to it, and could leak if they wanted to) going to take their place?
Nightengale
Member
A few points to note:
- This is NPD aka US numbers only. And yes, digital not included.
- 460k =/= 460 copies sold. Multiple accounts per console could log the leaderboard.
But that's not really the point. It's well accepted at this point that XB1 is doing terribly practically anywhere not US/UK ( and some others, but generally those two matter the most), and if Horizon doesn't do well in the countries where XB1 is doing well, then there's no expectations of it for other regions. Especially Europe, which is the core audience for racing games.
Maybe we're wrong and FH2 ends up doing very well in the long-run (or MS has low sales expectations for FH2 to begin with ), but based off what little data we have, it doesn't paint a highly compelling picture of FH2's sales at this point.
Kssio_Aug
Member
Why not? They told us already?
Ah ok! That makes sense then. Yeah, I just hope that it sold enough for MS predictions! But I expected it to sell really well, because everyone I knew with a XB1 were excited about it. lol
Yeah, I get your point. Well, its sad that this game probably did not sell as much as I thought. I dont know the Forza history when it comes to sales though, hopefully it is going according expectations for Microsoft.
Plus have to factor in people who rented the game, used sales, etc..
Because those numbers aren't nearly enough to break even, let alone turn a profit. I suspect Driveclub will suffer a similar fate.
Kssio_Aug
Member
I dont know, saying it wont exist FH3 seems to me a very harsh assumption to make right now, specially with such confidence. If thats here is true, then I wouldnt be that sure:
Not saying you're wrong when stating that FH2 is probably selling worse then expected, but saying there wont be a FH3 just because of those revelead retail numbers, doesnt sound to me like a totally safe assumption yet.
I hope I'm right about it.
Don't forget NBA2K15, game advertised by Sony.
I'm not aware of any co-promotion with NBA2K this year.
unknownstranger
Member
October is actually kind of meh this year because of all the delays. Evolve, Battlefield: Hardline, The Order: 1886, Dragon Age: Inquisition (I think this used to be October) and probably a few more that I'm missing.
Was Arkham Knight meant to be October? I can't remember, but man that game got delayed big time.
Nightengale
Member
Arkham is this year's Watch_Dogs in term of delays.
PS4 has an exclusive online mode for a month.
unknownstranger
Member
This week originally had Battlefield and Evolve releasing on Tuesday but both got delayed to Februrary. Now this has to be one of the weakest fall release weeks in a long time.
Nightengale
Member
Sony has different tiers in their co-promotion/marketing, as usual.
Destiny, Watch_Dogs, and presumably Arkham Knight gets class-1 co-marketing.
Shadow of Mordor and NBA2K gets well... a lower tier. -_-
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
120k for FH2 is definitely a disappointment. Bearing in mind this is XB1's biggest market. Although iirc Forza was never a big seller, Forza 4 had a low debut on NPD as well.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I think a lot of you guys just make too much of a game out of everything. Don't spoil nice things for yourselves, I suppose.
Also ya'll use the word "leak" waaaay too much haha
Also ya'll use the word "leak" waaaay too much haha
MrCookiepants
Member
Forza sold fine. It'll do 1-2 million worldwide, just like the first game.
wapplew
Member
I think the game gonna be fine. It's cleaver way to recycle assets and engine, not that high budget.
Liabe Brave
Member
Oh, they aren't. It seems pretty clear they like to retain a lower profile. My point was that there will still be data to talk about in NPD threads, it'll just dribble out more slowly and be more indirect. (From not just GAF members, but other past sources like Verge, Sherr tweets, etc.) Like the release-day hints we get for Japan, which GAF discussion keys into before hard tracker data is published.
Driveclub debuted at #1 in Germany IIRC, I think it'll do all right.
DriveClub has the advantage of being on PS4. That type of game sells best in Europe and of course PS4 is biggest current gen install base in Europe. Even with the server issues it should sell fine (unless they really screw up fixing it).
The main disadvantage for FH2 obviously is that it isn't on the PS4 and its current gen install base in Europe isn't great for that genre. However FH2 is on 360 as well so I expect combined sales will be okay in the end (although I can't see it selling more that ok'ish in current market) but I'd imagine it's current gen sales won't be terrific.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I did say a couple months back neither were tracking that impressively
Nightengale
Member
Has there been any racing game in the past few years not named Mario Kart, Forza Motorsports and Gran Turismo that have tracked impressively?
It really feels like aside from the core few, most racing games these days just come out whimpering out of the gate mostly. And Horizon is a tier higher than said games, with its better critical reception and far stronger marketing push than games like F1, etc.
shinra-bansho
Member
What's considered impressive? From memory NFS: Most Wanted did over 500K launch month back in 2012.
CosmicQueso
Member
Gotta agree with this, maybe add a couple more points...
As Griss mentions, the demand curves for the new consoles are set. Even with price changes, promotion, etc, nothing is going to really change significantly in a short time. The PS3 stumbled out of the gates, for example, and then took years to slowly recover and then excel by the end of the Gen.
These threads tend to focus on single data points and single month on month changes, or sometimes changes vs the prior year month. At the beginning of the Gen, these things matter more than they will now through the end of the Gen.
Aside from that, the earnings reports from all of the companies clearly state hardware sold, units, etc. Sometimes at title level, sometimes not, but that data does become available.
NPD is also not a good proxy for overall industry or company health, and its becoming less and less reliable over time.
The US, depending on who you ask,comprises around 40-45% of the global market. Retail sales, which NPD tracks, now accounts for between 70-90% of total software sales, depending on platform and franchise.
And this is to say nothing about the PC, which is by far the biggest growth platform globally at the moment, and is basically nonexistent in the NPD data at this point.
So using this information even for console warz idiocy is misleading.
The industry spends much less time than you might think diving into this information. Its decreasing relevance with the digital revolution being the primary cause. Every pub also gets much more detailed information on sales of its titles from retail, which makes waiting a month for this data to come out unnecessary.
What it is helpful for is to get an idea of how other companies are doing at retail, maybe identify some broader trends. Oh, and make a retail share chart once a quarter or year. That's about it.
Perhaps it's better that cream and aqua have stopped. So many times I've read doooooomed posts and shake my head. Overall SW and Acc spend on the consoles has been growing every single year, yet retail has been in decline because of smaller release slates and consumers moving to digital. Games that are seen as abject failures because of NPD data may not be failures at all once digital distribution, dlc and global sales are included. (Vita not saved)
In any case, I thought for sure disseminating that info would catch up to those posters. But I sure didn't think other users would be the catalyst for them to stop. Oh well, probably for the best.
Finally, all that said, the quality of industry discussion here is better than anywhere else online, and right here is where the smartest, most knowledgeable and savvy people are. There are more than a couple of people here who could be among the best analysts the industry would have, and others that probably already are.
If the ceasing of the leaks ensures that the good discussion can continue, and maybe improve, that's probably for the best too.
Discussion without knowing hardware sales? There's no improvement in that.
People will discuss without know the basics.
They did because of poor Xbox One shipment, but in the last quarter they launched in 25 countries and shipped units without Kinect.
I think Xbox One number will be very decent, and there's a chance of MS reveal the number.
theprodigy
Member
but if they split it up again after just one quarter it would look REALLY obvious
edit: where the hell is the Microsoft Q3 thread on here anyway?
oh of course it wasn't 1st Course or Parmenides that made the thread, no wonder I couldn't find it
Already is really obvious.
In Jan-Mar quarter they gave a combined number and then said how much of that was for Xbox One. I'm hoping for the same thing now, if Xbox One shipment was not weak.
Especially if they just combine numbers all over again for the quarter after next.
anexanhume
Member
Well, no numbers for the three most interesting months of the year. I'm especially most interested in Halo MCC. Would really like to know how the numbers compare there.
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