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[FrankT]

yeah, too bad none of that is going to happen. October is going to be a clusterfuck like none have seen before. Gears 2, Rock Band 2, Guitar Hero 4, LBP, plus whatever else Nintendo has. it's just going to be nuts. my bet is that Gears will sell the most with a couple million, but the Wii will have the highest software sales overall. LBP will do decently, but not amazingly, GH4 will consume, RB2, not so much, and insanity will go on as scheduled when NPD day comes in November.

as to this month's numbers, not bad. about what was expected. Nintendo continues to destroy all, and life goes on. this fall's sales age threads will be awesome.

Gears should fall fully in the Nov NPD window I believe. Nov 7th Unless there is a long week there, but I don't think so.

 

[Saint Gregory]

That's the thing..
No matter the final numbers, you''ll see the whining, complaning, crying in November on October's NPD-day.. ..either because sales were too high, or too low, or just average, or hardware was low, or just flat..the game will need to do 1.5 million in software (i.e. more than GTAIV debut), and the PS3 to beat the Wii in hardware (over 500k), so noone complains.

Strangely, if people would just let the game stand on its own instead of all these crazy expectations and hype about it saving the PS3 then people would be happy with whatever its numbers are as long as they got a copy... although there are at least 3 or 4 other PS3 exclusives I can say that about.

I think there is some misunderstanding of the scope of the point I was trying to make. I was not discussing the success of LBP as an individual software title. I think it will do fairly well. I was discussing the success of LBP as a seller of hardware, which I think it has the potential for, because it adds something to the PS3 library that it doesn't have, and which might attract new users.

I really haven't seen that work yet. It's really hard to convince consumers that your console has variety by adding one game to it's library. See: RE4 GC or the aforementioned VP 360.

And for attracting new users to the hardware, I think user-created content will be a hard sell.

Very much so.

Actually, that's yet to be completely tested. Let's see how Warioland Shake It! does in September? It cratered softly in japan (not a complete bomb since no price collapse so far), but maybe it will do better in the West. Which, of course, doesn't mean that there'll be a market for sidescrollers on the PS3, but I don't know that we can equiviocally say that sidescrollers on home consoles are not built to sell just yet. We don't have enough data (we need more DD sales numbers ).

I'm going to be so all over that it's going to be sick. Cover your eyes children.

But it's still a Mario universe brand platformer. It'll be really difficult to seperate the Nintendo faithfull from the kind of consumer Sony's hoping to attract with LBP. That's all for tonight.

 

[hellclerk]

Gears should fall fully in the Nov NPD window correct? Nov 7th Unless there is a long week there, but I don't think so.

oh, my mistake, you're right. for some reason, i thought it was a Halloween release date. hmmm, that could make more things interesting, but i maintain that Guitar Hero 4 will be top dog, and with the early launch of the 360 RB2 there is the POTENTIAL for the Wii version of Guitar Hero 4 to surpass its HD counterparts.

 

[fernoca]

Back on 2004, Fable debuted at #2 (#1 being Pokémon FireRed) with over 600k units..also the Xbox outsold the PS2 that month..

Who knows if that's going to translate into similar results this October, with Fable II.

 

[Speevy]

Back on 2004, Fable debuted at #2 (#1 being Pokémon FireRed) with over 600k units..also the Xbox outsold the PS2 that month..

Who knows if that's going to translate into similar results this October, with Fable II.

The PS2 was very supply-constrained. I should know, because sonycowboy never let me forget it.

 

[FrankT]

oh, my mistake, you're right. for some reason, i thought it was a Halloween release date. hmmm, that could make more things interesting, but i maintain that Guitar Hero 4 will be top dog, and with the early launch of the 360 RB2 there is the POTENTIAL for the Wii version of Guitar Hero 4 to surpass its HD counterparts.

Oh I agree for the most part only other of note I would say is Fable 2. It's going to be pretty big. Checked my local GS tonight and they said it's already at 30 preorders. On a side note Gears 2 was at 70.

 

[hellclerk]

Oh I agree for the most part only other of note I would say is Fable 2. It's going to be pretty big. Checked my local GS tonight and they said it's already at 30 preorders. On a side note Gears 2 was at 70.

hmm, yet another thing i forgot to gauge. i'm not sure how popular Fable 2 will be ultimately, though i would think that them vs. the next position will be pretty close. GH4 Wii COULD come up in an upset, but i'm going to say that Fable may come out on top. of course on second thought, with GH4 split up between 3 SKUs, it'll be hard to say if they'll be very high on the charts in the first place, so the nod goes to Fable for me. i think Animal Crossing Wii COULD come out in October as well, considering the Halloween thing they featured, but i'm not sure if month one sales will be very ingenuous as the type of game AC is doesn't really lend itself to front loaded sales, though it will be curious to see it place...

 

[legend166]

Sorry for still contributing in derailing the July 2008 NPD but this is all I'm hoping for. If they can sell that much in a month it's a success imo. Don't particularly care about all console sells crap as long as the game does well.

You're going to be very, very disappointed.

 

[Speevy]

LittleBigPlanet is a landmark game in digital distribution. I think it will be fairly successful, but the important thing is that it's opening doors for more console games to do the very same thing.

 

[B-Rad Lascelle]

hmm, yet another thing i forgot to gauge. i'm not sure how popular Fable 2 will be ultimately, though i would think that them vs. the next position will be pretty close. GH4 Wii COULD come up in an upset, but i'm going to say that Fable may come out on top. of course on second thought, with GH4 split up between 3 SKUs, it'll be hard to say if they'll be very high on the charts in the first place, so the nod goes to Fable for me. i think Animal Crossing Wii COULD come out in October as well, considering the Halloween thing they featured, but i'm not sure if month one sales will be very ingenuous as the type of game AC is doesn't really lend itself to front loaded sales, though it will be curious to see it place...

Fable 2 really is the best bet. I can't see it being toppled unless a multi-plat release catches fire unexpectedly and pulls an Assassin's Creed pre-November.

I'm thinking along the lines of Force Unleashed Wii.

 

[justchris]

So I guess Fallout 3's out of the running for October or something? I mean, I expect there to be 4 versions of GH4 in the top 10, but Fallout 3 should do something.

 

[Karma]

So I guess Fallout 3's out of the running for October or something? I mean, I expect there to be 4 versions of GH4 in the top 10, but Fallout 3 should do something.

Fable 2 should also be in the top 10. IMO.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Fable 2 should also be in the top 10. IMO.

Due to the parsings of all the different Guitar Hero games over the different platforms, Fable 2 should be #1 for that month.

 

[Sean]

I still think LBP is releasing at an awful time. This October/November period is VERY stacked with sequels to large game franchises.

A lot of people are forgetting about the Guitar Hero jugernaut, if people buy the bundle for that (and they will) it's the cost of three games which leaves those people less money for other titles.

 

[gantz85]

I still think LBP is releasing at an awful time. This October/November period is VERY stacked with sequels to large game franchises.

A lot of people are forgetting about the Guitar Hero jugernaut, if people buy the bundle for that (and they will) it's the cost of three games which leaves those people less money for other titles.

My guess is that Sony will launch a marketing campaign that will eclipse everything save Gears of War 2.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

My guess is that Sony will launch a marketing campaign that will eclipse everything save Gears of War 2.

It's n advertising now and has been for the past few months.

I still think LBP is releasing at an awful time. This October/November period is VERY stacked with sequels to large game franchises.

A lot of people are forgetting about the Guitar Hero jugernaut, if people buy the bundle for that (and they will) it's the cost of three games which leaves those people less money for other titles.

I didn't forget. I know the deal. GH4 will make all it's bitch.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Things of note: Through July, Wii's hardware number is up 59% from last year. If we account for 2007's extra January week and do a comparison of weekly averages, Wii is up 65% from last year. If Wii can keep doing 59-65% better than last year for the rest of the year, its 2008 total will end up in the 10.0 to 10.4 million range.

System: Average weeks of ownership (Average purchase date)
Wii: 40.7 (October 23, 2007)
PS3: 41.5 (October 17, 2007)
X360: 68.3 (April 13, 2007)

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I'm very familiar with your philosophy and I agree with it 99% of the time but dude, it's been two years. Devs should not have to be dragged kicking and screaming into supporting the Wii. Yes, there have been new game announcements but has there been anything that even begins to approach the kind of support that the PS3 and 360 saw out of the gate? I don't need to see completed games, just give me a fucking announcement that doesn't sound like a demo project submitted by college students.

I completely agree; it's a great theory but the practice is taking much longer than anticipated, but what can you do? Enjoy what you get and continue to wait, or get a 360 or a PS3 (or PC) and experience the best of both worlds in the meantime.

 

[TGO]

:lol: @ the Sta Trek gifs, one problem thou.......wheres the Sony one

 

[donny2112]

:lol: @ the Sta Trek gifs, one problem thou.......wheres the Sony one

It was the Romulans from Star Trek: Nemesis somewhere earlier in the thread. Look for Mama Robotnik's posts in this thread.

Edit: Thanks to Donny for the correction.

Jokeropia.


As for Little Big Planet, I'm thinking that 300K is a good solid estimate with definite possibility to end up higher for the first month. It will sell 98% to existing PS3 owners the first month, but sales in 2009 might show whether it can help expand the userbase into PS2/Wii mainstream territory. (November/December sales will grow because it's November/December, so it'll be 2009 before we might see some impact, if it's still in the Top 10 and PS3 is showing increase over 2008.)

As for the demographic argument, it can be countered by the exclusivity effect and some existing owners seeing this game as a "proof" for their console for the mainstream. I expect the same kind of impact for The Conduit to sell well on the Wii (i.e. exclusive and "proof" for core and/or FPS games).

 

[DJ Crimson]

Yay for Civ Rev success.

 

[[Nintex]]

I still think LBP is releasing at an awful time. This October/November period is VERY stacked with sequels to large game franchises.

I agree, I also think that Sony will try to beat Gears of War 2 and that they decide to give Resistance 2 more advertisment. My guess is that LBP will debut rather low and keeps on selling well after it's release. I don't think it's a frontloaded game.

 

[Cipherr]

Oct sounds like its going to be a horrid NPD month if we dont get a top 20 released. 6 slots taken by Rockband GH4 SKU's? One for Saints Row, One for Wii Play (sigh) and then LBP right?

 

[Grecco]

Due to the parsings of all the different Guitar Hero games over the different platforms, Fable 2 should be #1 for that month.

Saints Row 2 might have something to say about that.

 

[onipex]

Seems to me that social games are what brought the mainstream to the PS2/Wii. User created content is for the core game no matter how cute you make it, IMHO. If the mainstream audience wanted it Blast Works would have sold better on the Wii. Not to mention Boom Blocks, My Sims and to a lesser extent levels will still be traded in Elebits.

The Wii has also already proved that it has a healthy market for FPS. It is publishers and not developers that decided what game is made for a console. So it doesn’t matter if a developer thinks making a Wii game is below them. A developer can make a great core game for the Wii and the publisher can decid to bury it. I remember reading that a guy from High Voltage was approached by a publisher asking them to crap out the Conduit on the Wii , and make it more casual.

Once publishers want/let developers make core games for the Wii they will be made.

 

[hellclerk]

Seems to me that social games are what brought the mainstream to the PS2/Wii. User created content is for the core game no matter how cute you make it, IMHO. If the mainstream audience wanted it Blast Works would have sold better on the Wii. Not to mention Boom Blocks, My Sims and to a lesser extent levels will still be traded in Elebits.

only problem is that most of these games didn't do too well in the first place. not because they were bad games, they just weren't very well marketed. the BIGGEST problem Wii software has, especially up against Nintendo, is a lack of proper marketing. these games, in order to do well, must be put into the public's eye and thus create mind share. because you need mind share before you can ever hope to gain market share. THIS is where 3rd parties are floundering most, in marketing. i wager that many good games can and will sell on Wii with no problems WITH appropriate marketing.

The Wii has also already proved that it has a healthy market for FPS. It is publishers and not developers that decided what game is made for a console. So it doesn’t matter if a developer thinks making a Wii game is below them. A developer can make a great core game for the Wii and the publisher can decid to bury it. I remember reading that a guy from High Voltage was approached by a publisher asking them to crap out the Conduit on the Wii , and make it more casual.

Once publishers want/let developers make core games for the Wii they will be made

.
mostly agreed, but recognize that even many developers share the same sort of mindset as these many publishers, so this idea isn't helped by them as much. another thing is that the developers have little financial reason to support the Wii, so they actually have some semblance of an excuse, though to be perfectly honest, it's still pretty poor.

 

[FrankT]

Oct sounds like its going to be a horrid NPD month if we dont get a top 20 released. 6 slots taken by Rockband GH4 SKU's? One for Saints Row, One for Wii Play (sigh) and then LBP right?

Nope, Fable 2 will be up there. Not to say any of those will not make it, but Fable 2 is a shoo-in. If Fallout 3 falls on Oct 7th like the retailers have then things will be even more interesting.

 

[WrikaWrek]

I hope fable 2 does huge.

 

[boiled goose]

still no numbers but the top ten ...

this sucks..

 

[B-Rad Lascelle]

still no numbers but the top ten ...

this sucks..

Welcome to the new era of NPD reporting... where only 7 games (the ones not named Wii Fit, Wii Play or Mario Kart Wii) are rotated out each and every month. :lol

In August, you can already bank on Madden 09 taking another three (PS2, PS3, X360) along with Too Human and Guitar Hero DS.

What 2 surprise titles will join them?

Mario Super Sluggers?
Madden 09 Wii/Xbox V1/PSP?
Soul Calibur IV 360?
Tiger Woods 09 360?
NCAA Football 09 360?
Metal Gear Solid 4?

 

[Jammy]

Welcome to the new era of NPD reporting... where only 7 games (the ones not named Wii Fit, Wii Play or Mario Kart Wii) are rotated out each and every month. :lol

In August, you can already bank on Madden 09 taking another three (PS2, PS3, X360) along with Too Human and Guitar Hero DS.

What 2 surprise titles will join them?

Mario Super Sluggers?
Madden 09 Wii/Xbox V1/PSP?
Soul Calibur IV 360?
Tiger Woods 09 360?
NCAA Football 09 360?
Metal Gear Solid 4?

None of the above. Certainly not MGS4, and the others you listed seem to be slow burners after they launch. Plus, isn't the Wii version of Tiger the biggest seller?

 

[B-Rad Lascelle]

None of the above. Certainly not MGS4, and the others you listed seem to be slow burners after they launch. Plus, isn't the Wii version of Tiger the biggest seller?

In August 2007, Tiger Woods 08 moved 72,000 units on X360 compared with 32,000 units on Wii... although I'm sure the Wii edition had better legs following its launch month. (Even the top Tiger SKU was easily outsold by the V1, Wii & PSP editions of Madden.)

I included MGS4 for shits and giggles. :lol

 

[Arpharmd B]

I didn't read the whole thread, just the first page. That star trek gif sums everything up for Microsoft. Forget this casual market shit, go back to what you are good at. Gears and REAL price drops should fix things for them.

Still its nice thats theres a real fight going on now between the systems. If fall price cuts and Gears doesn't blow Sony out of the water this winter though I will be surprised.

 

[onipex]

only problem is that most of these games didn't do too well in the first place. not because they were bad games, they just weren't very well marketed. the BIGGEST problem Wii software has, especially up against Nintendo, is a lack of proper marketing. these games, in order to do well, must be put into the public's eye and thus create mind share. because you need mind share before you can ever hope to gain market share. THIS is where 3rd parties are floundering most, in marketing. i wager that many good games can and will sell on Wii with no problems WITH appropriate marketing.

You're right for the most part. Boom Blox was marketed towards kids ( I think that was a mistake) and is doing ok. The other games I mentioned were sent out to die in a sea of software. I believe that most of the Wii games that have sold very well had halfway decent TV marketing.

mostly agreed, but recognize that even many developers share the same sort of mindset as these many publishers, so this idea isn't helped by them as much. another thing is that the developers have little financial reason to support the Wii, so they actually have some semblance of an excuse, though to be perfectly honest, it's still pretty poor.

I don't think the mindset of the developer should matter much if the publisher wants them to make a game. Unless there are developers out their that think so highly of themselves that they refuse to make a core game for the Wii. It shouldn't matter if they think they're artist, because their job to make good video games. From a business stand point there is plenty of financial reason to support the Wii. Even if your studio has invested heavily in HD gaming it just takes some scaling back to make a Wii game. I know it's not as easy as it sounds, but it's just bad business to ignore that install base. That is unless you are trying to sell a HD game engine.

My main gripe is that I want to see the video game business expand and grow. If developers and publishers are too stupid or too proud to support the one company that is doing that for this generation then they deserve what they get. I know there are other investors like myself who are starting to back out on any company that is ignoring the market leader. Cost and risk tend to go up during the generation cycle and if things are looking bad now I'm happy to move on before they get worst.

I didn't read the whole thread, just the first page. That star trek gif sums everything up for Microsoft. Forget this casual market shit, go back to what you are good at. Gears and REAL price drops should fix things for them.

Still its nice thats theres a real fight going on now between the systems. If fall price cuts and Gears doesn't blow Sony out of the water this winter though I will be surprised.

I think Microsoft sees Sony going for that market again to convert the PS2 gamers they keep bring up. It's smart for Microsoft to try and cut Sony off a bit. They can just ride their lead out at this point unless sales really start to take off for the PS3.

 

[jvm]

still no numbers but the top ten ...

this sucks..

At least two for you tomorrow, although they're not MGS4. Perhaps someone else will ask for MGS4 figure...

 

[BigDug13]

I honestly saw this coming months ago for Microsoft. The fact is that their flow of "must have" exclusives has slowed down considerably. Meanwhile, with the bluray victory, Sony now has the only high def disc capable game system and its flow of games looks very similar to the 360's release list right now, especially looking at the top selling games for the month.

Here's the drawback though. PS3 will continue to sell better than the 360, but the 360 being a games only machine means it will sell more games than the PS3 will ever hope to achieve. DEVELOPERS wanting the best software sales on the high def systems will still choose the 360 as their primary system.

People like me who bought a PS3 to be the living room bluray player will not be contributing to game sales.

It's still a win for Sony considering where they started from in this generation.

 

[Suburban Cowboy]

The PS3 will continue to sell better than the 360, but the 360 being a games only machine means it will sell more games than the PS3 will ever hope to achieve.

Actually, all 360 needs is a price cut and they can start beating sony on a monthly basis. And there is no reason to believe 360 will have a significantly larger attach rate just because its a game-only system. Games will continue to sell better for 360 as long as it has the largest install base

 

[Sykra]

Actually, all 360 needs is a price cut and they can start beating sony on a monthly basis. And there is no reason to believe 360 will have a significantly larger attach rate just because its a game-only system. Games will continue to sell better for 360 as long as it has the largest install base

Didnt they just have a price cut?

 

[B-Rad Lascelle]

Didnt they just have a price cut?

They dropped the 20GB Pro by $50 while phasing it out to clear the retail channel of older product. The 60GB Pro has since arrived at the Pro's long-term $349 pricepoint.

The PRICE CUT hits in 3 weeks.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Actually, all 360 needs is a price cut and they can start beating sony on a monthly basis.

Didn't work this month.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I honestly saw this coming months ago for Microsoft. The fact is that their flow of "must have" exclusives has slowed down considerably. Meanwhile, with the bluray victory, Sony now has the only high def disc capable game system and its flow of games looks very similar to the 360's release list right now, especially looking at the top selling games for the month.

Here's the drawback though. PS3 will continue to sell better than the 360, but the 360 being a games only machine means it will sell more games than the PS3 will ever hope to achieve. DEVELOPERS wanting the best software sales on the high def systems will still choose the 360 as their primary system.

People like me who bought a PS3 to be the living room bluray player will not be contributing to game sales.

It's still a win for Sony considering where they started from in this generation.

No, it's just that Microsoft did a much better job of spreading out the exclusives last year compared to this year.

In the first 6 months of the year, only Lost Odyssey and Ninja Gaiden 2 have come out.

In the last 5 months of the year. Banjo, Gears 2, Fable 2, VP: Trouble in Paradise, Lips, You're at the Movies, Scene It 2 comes out. This year has been set up for the games to hit with the price drop.

 

[Parmenides]

the 360 being a games only machine means it will sell more games than the PS3 will ever hope to achieve. DEVELOPERS wanting the best software sales on the high def systems will still choose the 360 as their primary system.

As a neutral observer (I don´t own a PS3 or 360), I can´t help but be amused by this

Q1 FY09

EA

PLATFORM NET REVENUE MIX (in millions)

PS3 139

360 81

Ubisoft

Breakdown of sales by platform

PS3 21%

360 9%

NAMCO BANDAI Holdings Inc.

Group Total By Platform :Unit Sales (thousand)

PS3 270

360 172

Konami

Unit sales platform mix

PS3 57.3%

360 2.6%

Capcom

We have Full yr FY08

Unit shipped (Unit : '000 copies)

PS3 1,750

360 1,620

 

[Stumpokapow]

In the first 6 months of the year, only Lost Odyssey and Ninja Gaiden 2 have come out.

Kingdom Under Fire as well.

In the last 5 months of the year. Banjo, Gears 2, Fable 2, VP: Trouble in Paradise, Lips, You're at the Movies, Scene It 2 comes out. This year has been set up for the games to hit with the price drop.

2006:
first half:
last half: 99 Nights, Gears of War, Viva Pinata

2007:
first half: fusion frenzy 2, Crackdown, Forza 2, Shadowrun
last half: Blue Dragon, Halo 3, PGR4, VP Party Animals, Scene It, Mass Effect

In both full years, stuff was stacked very heavily towards the back. Shadowrun and FF2 were both pretty small fry stuff. Crackdown and Forza 2 were big, sure, but so were Lost Odyssey and Ninja Gaiden 2.

Also, you're in the Movies is not affiliated with Microsoft; it's Codemasters published. There's no reason to include it in a list of 1st party exclusives. It also looks like an exceptionally shitty game.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

In both full years, stuff was stacked very heavily towards the back.

With the industry's Christmas fetish, this usually seems to be the case. Wii this year seems one of the notable exceptions.

 

[Stumpokapow]

As a neutral observer (I don´t own a PS3 or 360), I can´t help but be amused by this

Erm, all of the numbers you posted are worldwide and so by and large they mask the 360's giant US software advantage with its non-presence in Japan and relative weakness in Europe. Not that this is meant to apologize for those faults, but it just illustrates how using these numbers to make a point about the US software market is a bad idea.

Also, a few specific notes; the EA revenue has already been dissected--using non-GAAP accounting, the 360 beats the PS3 for that quarter. The reason for the difference is a difference in accounting for future payment milestones, which people in the EA thread suspected was related to philosophies from both platform holders on accounting for DLC revenue.

Konami's revenue numbers are just stupid to report in context, given that MGS4 accounted for half the company's revenue, PERIOD. In other words, YES Konami had a tremendous success on the PS3, but that would be true no matter how healthy the PS3 software market is as a whole, since they didn't release much of anything else on any platform.

 

[Rolf NB]

As a neutral observer (I don´t own a PS3 or 360), I can´t help but be amused by this

It's just an old talking point. It always takes a while before the echo dies.

Erm, all of the numbers you posted are worldwide and so by and large they mask the 360's giant US software advantage with its non-presence in Japan and relative weakness in Europe. Not that this is meant to apologize for those faults, but it just illustrates how using these numbers to make a point about the US software market is a bad idea.

There was no such thing as a point about the US software market. There was a point about the platform choices software developers would likely make. Suffice it to say that few software developers only serve a domestic audience nowadays.

 

[Rolf NB]

.

 

[Orlics]

Kingdom Under Fire as well.



2006:
first half:
last half: 99 Nights, Gears of War, Viva Pinata

2007:
first half: fusion frenzy 2, Crackdown, Forza 2, Shadowrun
last half: Blue Dragon, Halo 3, PGR4, VP Party Animals, Scene It, Mass Effect

In both full years, stuff was stacked very heavily towards the back. Shadowrun and FF2 were both pretty small fry stuff. Crackdown and Forza 2 were big, sure, but so were Lost Odyssey and Ninja Gaiden 2.

Also, you're in the Movies is not affiliated with Microsoft; it's Codemasters published. There's no reason to include it in a list of 1st party exclusives. It also looks like an exceptionally shitty game.

Dead Rising in 06

 

[Stumpokapow]

There was no such thing as a point about the US software market. There was a point about the platform choices software developers would likely make. Suffice it to say that few software developers only serve a domestic audience nowadays.

On the contrary, we're seeing Western developers develop for the West, and Japanese developers develop for the West. Japan is still a market, but it's a substantially smaller market as a percentage of the worldwide market than it was before.

If you look at domestic software sales, the 360 thrashes the PS3 both in terms of launch-aligned sales and in terms of absolute sales. It also has a higher tie ratio in terms of both comparisons (although this is logical given that the PS3 is ahead of the 360 with launch-aligned sales). Even at the nadir of PS3 hardware sales, software was still viable to do multiplatform on both, but there will essentially never be a day during this generation that exclusives make any sense economically--this doesn't mean an exclusive can't or won't be profitable, particularly not a high profile one, but it does mean that as a developer your risk factor economically will be lowered by porting.

Those numbers do not support any point about destination platforms. They don't support any point about the US at all. And in the case of EA and Konami, they don't support any non-trivially-obvious point.

In terms of lead platform choice, we just spent an entire year listening to people say "even if it doesn't make economic sense to lead with the PS3, it makes more technical sense. PS3->360, both are good. 360->PS3, only 360 version is good." If decisions ought to be made based on technical priority, then there's no reason to look at software numbers to decide lead platform.

Dead Rising in 06

Not Microsoft-published. I don't see the sense in including third-party exclusives since Microsoft doesn't pick their release dates, so using them to discuss whether or not Microsoft f'd up spreading stuff out doesn't strike me as useful.

 

[Rolf NB]

On the contrary, we're seeing Western developers develop for the West, and Japanese developers develop for the West. Japan is still a market, but it's a substantially smaller market as a percentage of the worldwide market than it was before.

If you look at domestic software sales, the 360 thrashes the PS3 both in terms of launch-aligned sales and in terms of absolute sales. It also has a higher tie ratio in terms of both comparisons (although this is logical given that the PS3 is ahead of the 360 with launch-aligned sales). Even at the nadir of PS3 hardware sales, software was still viable to do multiplatform on both, but there will essentially never be a day during this generation that exclusives make any sense economically--this doesn't mean an exclusive can't or won't be profitable, particularly not a high profile one, but it does mean that as a developer your risk factor economically will be lowered by porting.

Those numbers do not support any point about destination platforms. They don't support any point about the US at all. And in the case of EA and Konami, they don't support any non-trivially-obvious point.

In terms of lead platform choice, we just spent an entire year listening to people say "even if it doesn't make economic sense to lead with the PS3, it makes more technical sense. PS3->360, both are good. 360->PS3, only 360 version is good." If decisions ought to be made based on technical priority, then there's no reason to look at software numbers to decide lead platform.

Welcome to the argument you just sleep-walked through. Here's the recap:
BigDug13: "the 360 being a games only machine means it will sell more games than the PS3 will ever hope to achieve. DEVELOPERS wanting the best software sales on the high def systems will still choose the 360 as their primary system."

The figures provided by Parmenides, which weren't limited to only domestic revenue for any company call into question both the assumption and the conclusion that was layered upon it. That's what this was all about.
"The west" as you put it is not one country. It's still the sum of at least the US, Canada and the EU. I can't believe I have to explain this.