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[shinra-bansho]

Are people expecting a sustained increase in 3DS sales from the XL or just a launch bump?

Just looking at Nintendo's data for the 3DS the 58.15M units shipped to the Americas are comprised of:

• 36.44M DS Lite
• 11.09M DSi
• 5.32M DSi XL

With the rest presumably being the original DS.

 

[Miles X]

Unless you're talking about the subscription model... I really can't see a profitable $99 360...

It was making a profit when it went to $199 4 years ago, and has had a revision since then. It's 7 yr old tech ...

 

[frankie_baby]

Are people expecting a sustained increase in 3DS sales from the XL or just a launch bump?

Just looking at Nintendo's data for the 3DS the 58.15M units shipped to the Americas are comprised of:

• 36.44M DS Lite
• 11.09M DSi
• 5.32M DSi XL

With the rest presumably being the original DS.

I'd guess decent launch bump with small but noticeable sustained increased

 

[Somnid]

Are people expecting a sustained increase in 3DS sales from the XL or just a launch bump?

The XL was actually pretty popular just really late. It also seems to fit the American culture a bit better since we don't really travel with portables as much. I think it can definitely sustain itself but Mario will be a big component as well.

 

[Currygan]

Are people expecting a sustained increase in 3DS sales from the XL or just a launch bump?

launch bump. Sales will really steadily increase when the next pokemon is out, and i'm not even 100% sure of that

 

[frankie_baby]

It was making a profit when it went to $199 4 years ago, and has had a revision since then. It's 7 yr old tech ...

Doesn't mean they'd profit at 99

 

[Miles X]

Doesn't mean they'd profit at 99

Unless you have evidence to the contry I think the facts speak for themselves. If you don't think they've been able to cut costs by $100 over 4 years with a revision, yet Sony have been able to cut the PS3 by $150 and possibly another cut with the revision this fall but remain profitable, then I don't know what to say to you. Use common sense.

 

[shinra-bansho]

It was making a profit when it went to $199 4 years ago, and has had a revision since then. It's 7 yr old tech ...

I would assume there's a floor to how low one can reduce the BoM, manufacturing and distribution that doesn't necessarily scale linearly with time.

I don't expect we'll see a $20 PS2 or a $5 PS1.

 

[TheNatural]

Overall:

Retail industry down 20% year over year.

Hardware:

Xbox 360: 203K (-26.7%)
Nintendo 3DS: Above 124k
Nintendo DS: Above 120K

BREAKING or not
Vita < 50k

Using the Wii weekly numbers and PS3 last year number,

135K<PS3<148K
63K<Wii<76K

PRICE DROP MOTHA FUCKA, DO YOU SPEAK IT?

Apparently not nowadays. Companies don't give a flat fuck anymore. Maybe there's a chance for holidays.

 

[PixyJunket]

I was just thinking that I would buy a second 360 at $99, but then I realized we already have a second one.

 

[Miles X]

I would assume there's a floor to how low one can reduce the BoM, manufacturing and distribution that doesn't necessarily scale linearly with time.

The amount of time involved I think it does, 4 years is almost the length of some generations. Not to mention even if they could only break even or make a small loss on a $99 console, the more expensive model would pick up the slack like it did in the early years.

 

[Drago]

For 3DS, I expect a nice launch bump for XL and NSMB2, with a slightly increased sustained amount per month from there (maybe ~10-20k extra? I dunno)

 

[frankie_baby]

Unless you have evidence to the contry I think the facts speak for themselves. If you don't think they've been able to cut costs by $100 over 4 years with a revision, yet Sony have been able to cut the PS3 by $150 and possibly another cut with the revision this fall but remain profitable, then I don't know what to say to you. Use common sense.

The lower you go the less scope there is to cut further

 

[LQX]

Wow, its nuts the 360 has held a lead for so long.

 

[Miles X]

The lower you go the less scope there is to cut further

That goes without saying, you need to put things in perspective though. Four years, was profitable at $199, had a revision since. Unlike the other two consoles which have had cuts every 2 years (now looking like it's yearly for PS3 and Wii) 360 should have had a cut in 2010 to $150, but Kinect replaced the need for that. 2 Years later they'd be cutting again by $50. Both small cuts in two year periods.

 

[Elios83]

You seem to think Sony can get amazing third party support if they put up enough money. It has never worked that way.

PS3 benefited from having a slew of high profile announced games that people knew were coming to the platform eventually. PS3 also benefited from the 360's success which filled out the library with multi plat ports when things were slow.

I repeat- it is not as easy to get 3rd party support as you think it is, especially with a system selling this horribly.

But it works exactly that way.
In the market everything has a price, you pay, you get what you want.
How do you think that Nintendo got the RE series on GC? Monster Hunter 4 on 3DS?
And Microsoft with all their exclusive JRPGs on the 360 in the early years?
If Sony for example, wanted to fully fund development of a new exclusive Final Fantasy title for Vita with most of the profits going to Square Enix, Square Enix would accept immediatly because they would have no costs, all profits. It's free money for them, why should they refuse?
I said myself that for PS3 getting the games was easier because of the shared development with the 360 but that doesn't change the key point.
If Sony wants to get the games and has the money to get the games, they will get the games.
If they think that it's now worth it or simply they can't afford to, it won't happen.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

Not sure why that's the arbitrary cut-off.

Its not, it is just the next milestone date.

No point talking about monthly averages when 360 can wipe out 2m+ over November and December alone this year. The last Wii price cut did peanuts and the price really isn't an issue. Its library isn't vast enough to sell the console in the twilight years of this gen.

MS must be planning to cut price, even with that in mind 2.8m~ is a conservative estimate for 360 in Nov + Dec NPD, Wii is gonna be lucky to get 800k - 1m.

You under estimate a $99 Wii, which sold like hotcakes at Walmart last year. But yes, I agree the gap will be greatly shortened this Holiday season. It's not a sure-fire thing either way though (IMO), so it should be interesting to see how the end of this generation plays out these final years.

 

[Megadragon15]

Wow, its nuts the 360 has held a lead for so long.

And at a higher price than the competition.

 

[nhlducks35]

But it works exactly that way.
In the market everything has a price, you pay, you get what you want.
How do you think that Nintendo got the RE series on GC? Monster Hunter 4 on 3DS?
And Microsoft with all their exclusive JRPGs on the 360 in the early years?
If Sony for example, wanted to fully fund development of a new exclusive Final Fantasy title for Vita with most of the profits going to Square Enix, Square Enix would accept immediatly because they would have no costs, all profits. It's free money for them, why should they refuse?
I said myself that for PS3 getting the games was easier because of the shared development with the 360 but that doesn't change the key point.
If Sony wants to get the games and has the money to get the games, they will get the games.
If they think that it's now worth it or simply they can't afford to, it won't happen.

Nintendo was approached by Capcom, not the other way around.

 

[metalslimer]

Except Sony doesn't have the money to spend willy nilly on Vita. Sony as a company is in massive trouble and with the PS4 looming like a dark cloud they can't afford to be blowing all their money to get a couple of Vita exclusives that won't save the system anyway.

 

[Miles X]

I'm not, it's just the next milestone date.



You under estimate a $99 Wii, which sold like hotcakes at Walmart last year. But yes, I agree the gap will be greatly shortened this Holiday season. It's not a sure-fire thing either way though (IMO), so it should be interesting to see how the end of this generation plays out these final years.

I don't think I am, it sold like hot cakes but was still beaten by PS3? Was down over 500k YoY. a $99 Wii will still sell, but it's gonna be down YoY again, especially with Nintendo concentrating on WiiiU.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

And at a higher price than the competition.

And a subscription service.

 

[frankie_baby]

That goes without saying, you need to put things in perspective though. Four years, was profitable at $199, had a revision since. Unlike the other two consoles which have had cuts every 2 years (now looking like it's yearly for PS3 and Wii) 360 should have had a cut in 2010 to $150, but Kinect replaced the need for that. 2 Years later they'd be cutting again by $50. Both small cuts in two year periods.

But is it likely that the scope for both these hypothetical cuts would've Been 50 bucks a time?

 

[nickcv]

Except Sony doesn't have the money to spend willy nilly on Vita. Sony as a company is in massive trouble and with the PS4 looming like a dark cloud they can't afford to be blowing all their money to get a couple of Vita exclusives that won't save the system anyway.

agree... the money would been spent much better if they actually used it to develop a nice handheld-tailored first party game (and the profit margins would be much better as well)

 

[Miles X]

But is it likely that the scope for both these hypothetical cuts would've Been 50 bucks a time?

Yes? They'd have been in retaliation to Sony and Ninty and the lowest they've done is $50.

The $99 wii was only in very limited numbers and only at one store and I believe all sold out in one day, I think if it had been a permanent price cut available everywhere its quite likely wii would've been number 1 in both November and December (and quite possibly most of this year too)

K, I can't even take that seriously.

 

[frankie_baby]

I don't think I am, it sold like hot cakes but was still beaten by PS3? Was down over 500k YoY. a $99 Wii will still sell, but it's gonna be down YoY again, especially with Nintendo concentrating on WiiiU.

The $99 wii was only in very limited numbers and only at one store and I believe all sold out in one day, I think if it had been a permanent price cut available everywhere its quite likely wii would've been number 1 in both November and December (and quite possibly most of this year too)

 

[AzaK]

It's both a great success of Microsoft's and a complete failing of Nintendo's that the 360 has been nearly two years as the top selling console.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

I don't think I am, it sold like hot cakes but was still beaten by PS3? Was down over 500k YoY. a $99 Wii will still sell, but it's gonna be down YoY again, especially with Nintendo concentrating on WiiiU.

The $99 price tag was a Wal-mart Black Friday exclusive, and it was the Wii's best Black Friday EVER with selling over 500k units on that day alone. If it was $99 the whole holiday season (everywhere), there is no way it would of been below the PS3 or down YOY.

 

[bigtroyjon]

The $99 wii was only in very limited numbers and only at one store and I believe all sold out in one day, I think if it had been a permanent price cut available everywhere its quite likely wii would've been number 1 in both November and December (and quite possibly most of this year too)

The 360 also had a really limited sale and sold in much better numbers than the Wii. If that had been a permanent price cut there wouldn't even be a question if the 360 was going to outsell the Wii.

 

[frankie_baby]

Yes? They'd have been in retaliation to Sony and Ninty and the lowest they've done is $50.

But what if component/ manufacturing costs only dropped say 20 bucks? Should the drop be 50 just cos that's what the others did who in sonys case were dropping from a higher point in the first place and in Nintendo's who had lower manufacturing costs in the first place

 

[Miles X]

The $99 price tag was a Wal-mart Black Friday exclusive, and it was the Wii's best Black Friday EVER with selling over 500k units on that day alone. If it was $99 the whole holiday season (everywhere), there is no way it would of been below the PS3 or down YOY.

November perhaps, it was down in December by 1.3m though, no $50 cut on a cheap enough console which had a $50 price cut just 7 months prior would have done that much good. Wii is already cheap the reason it's slowed down is because support has dried up.

 

[Elios83]

Except Sony doesn't have the money to spend willy nilly on Vita. Sony as a company is in massive trouble and with the PS4 looming like a dark cloud they can't afford to be blowing all their money to get a couple of Vita exclusives that won't save the system anyway.

Indeed this is a valid point.
Right now both Nintendo and Sony know that dedicated gaming handelds are in their last years.
Nintendo is more involved as a company and might be willing to fight, but Sony? They can get money by selling games on smartphones and tablets as they wish. And they're already moving in that sense with Playstation Suite.
So why spending billions on the PSVita? It might make more sense to create a profitable niche (ala GC-N64) rather than losing money to get a 50m+ installed base and at the same time expanding their presence where the future really is, smartphones and tablets.
BUT that doesn't change the point that if Sony wanted to make PSvita a true commercial success, they would just need to seriously invest in the system. Current sales are a non factor to the platform's future which relies in Sony's hands.

 

[jvm]

The $99 price tag was a Wal-mart Black Friday exclusive, and it was the Wii's best Black Friday EVER with selling over 500k units on that day alone. If it was $99 the whole holiday season (everywhere), there is no way it would of been below the PS3 or down YOY.

Wait, what?

Last Nov+Dec was 1.9 million. The previous Nov+Dec was 3.6 million. You think a $100 Wii would have added 1.7 million extra hardware sales in those two months?

Yes, it sold well, and it could have sold more at $100, but I'm not sure about 1.7 million more.

 

[Dr. Feel Good]

What happened to Diablo?

 

[jvm]

What happened to Diablo?

The internet.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

November perhaps, it was down in December by 1.3m though, no $50 cut on a cheap enough console which had a $50 price cut just 7 months prior would have done that much good. Wii is already cheap the reason it's slowed down is because support has dried up.

I disagree. Just like the PS2 saw a resurgance at $99, so would have the Wii. It would of died down after the holidays, but something about that two-digit price tag moves consoles to a whole new group of people who wouldn't buy it otherwise. As for the YOY, the overall holiday period (November + December) wouldn't of went down (IMO).

 

[donny2112]

Seriously, kudos to AnalystGAF, which called the Xbox 360 number EXACTLY with its aggregate. Maybe donny2112 can tell us how many times it's been dead on before...

Will try to figure that out (shouldn't be too hard to write up the query).

With that, my (almost) final numbers are:

DS: 131k
360: 203k
PS3: 138.5k
Wii: 66.5k
3DS: 131k
Vita: 48.5k

That's about as good as you're likely to get unless Nintendo or Sony comes forward with more information (which isn't likely).

The problem is that that makes 360's marketshare of PS360/Wii 49.8%, when the PR said 49%. Therefore, I'm thinking of going with the high ranges of this post to put PS3 @ 140K and Wii @ 70K. That'd make 360's marketshare of PS360/Wii 49.2%, which does work with the PR. That'd make the numbers to use for predictions ...

360 - 203K
PS3 - 140K
3DS - 131K
WII - 70K
PSV - 48.5K (average of range endpoints)

That seem reasonable?

There's a very good reason the OP updates in the manner it does. I'll leave it at that.

I can probably guess at the reason, so thank you for updating the OP in the manner that it is. Keeps us with more data than otherwise.

i'm guessing at month 19.

Microsoft ignores handhelds, so nope.

 

[frankie_baby]

Indeed this is a valid point.
Right now both Nintendo and Sony know that dedicated gaming handelds are in their last years.
Nintendo is more involved as a company and might be willing to fight, but Sony? They can get money by selling games on smartphones and tablets as they wish. And they're already moving in that sense with Playstation Suite.
So why spending billions on the PSVita? It might make more sense to create a profitable niche (ala GC-N64) rather than losing money to get a 50m+ installed base and at the same time expanding their presence where the future really is, smartphones and tablets.
BUT that doesn't change the point that if Sony wanted to make PSvita a true commercial success, they would just need to seriously invest in the system. Current sales are a non factor to the platform's future which relies in Sony's hands.

GC was a profitable niche for Nintendo thanks to a huge atatch rate and very very high proportion of the software being first party, Sony however is reliant on 3rd party software which obviously brings in far far less money and if it only sold at GC levels I doubt vita would be profitable for them but as I said earlier I personally think they'll be lucky to sell that many

 

[Miles X]

I disagree. Just like the PS2 saw a resurgance at $99, so would have the Wii. It would of died down after the holidays, but something about that two-digit price tag moves consoles to a whole new group of people who wouldn't buy it otherwise. As for the YOY, the overall holiday period (November + December) wouldn't of went down (IMO).

Your opinion on the matter isn't worth much them I'm afraid, it's ludicrus as JVM pointed out that a $50 cut would have added 1.7m in sales. PS2 hit $99 years ago, $150 basically = $99 today when you take into consideration inflation. Kinect was the driving force last holiday and 360 sold more ON Black Friday than the Wii did the entire month.

 

[Aaron Strife]

$99 Wii would have done bananas numbers last year but I think that ship has sailed.

Not that it wouldn't increase sales, but Wii U will shove it off into a corner.

 

[Skiesofwonder]

Wait, what?

Last Nov+Dec was 1.9 million. The previous Nov+Dec was 3.6 million. You think a $100 Wii would have added 1.7 million extra hardware sales in those two months?

Yes, it sold well, and it could have sold more at $100, but I'm not sure about 1.7 million more.

I do. If you put it on paper it sounds crazy, but I personally witnessed the insane craze surrounded around a $99 Wii. It was like 2006 all over again. I guess we will truly never know until Nintendo (presumably) drops the price to $99 this holiday season, though I persume it won't have nearly the amount of impact just because it's too little, too late. But it should still have a respectable Holiday, close to 2 million (if they drop the price).

 

[donny2112]

Just like the PS2 saw a resurgance at $99,

Not really. $99 PS2 was too late in coming, so the impact was pretty muted.

 

[frankie_baby]

K, I can't even take that seriously.

Seriously a $99 wii could've sold massively this year, it maybe too late now though would probably give it a half decent bump

 

[Miles X]

I do. If you put it on paper it sounds crazy, but I personally witnessex the insane craze surrounded around a $99 Wii. It was like 2006 all over again. I guess we will truly never know until Nintendo (presumably) drops the price to $99 this holiday season, though I persume it won't have nearly the amount of impact just because it's too little, too late. But it should still have a respectable Holiday, close to 2 million (if they drop the price).

It did 1.86m last holiday, it's not going to be up YoY, I gotta feeling you're just very optimistic about what the Wii can realistically do. You're gonna be pretty disappointed come Nov NPD.

And just for the record, judging by forecasts, not even Nintendo expect a 2 million US holiday season.

 

[A Human Becoming]

The problem is that that makes 360's marketshare of PS360/Wii 49.8%, when the PR said 49%. Therefore, I'm thinking of going with the high ranges of this post to put PS3 @ 140K and Wii @ 70K. That'd make 360's marketshare of PS360/Wii 49.2%, which does work with the PR. That'd make the numbers to use for predictions ...

360 - 203K
PS3 - 140K
3DS - 131K
WII - 70K
PSV - 48.5K (average of range endpoints)

That seem reasonable?

Good catch; I didn't see that PR number. I tip my hat to you sir!

 

[Elios83]

GC was a profitable niche for Nintendo thanks to a huge atatch rate and very very high proportion of the software being first party, Sony however is reliant on 3rd party software which obviously brings in far far less money and if it only sold at GC levels I doubt vita would be profitable for them but as I said earlier I personally think they'll be lucky to sell that many

That's Sony's business, they have to find their place by themselves.
But honestly I don't see why acoording to you it is so difficult to make a successful niche.
As long as you don't sell the hardware at a loss, you make profits from your own software and the installed base is big enough to allow for decent software sales (which is something a 20-30m installed base can easily do), I really don't see the problem. Of course even creating such a niche require an investement, you're not getting there by abandoning a product on the market.

 

[Mileena]

PSV - 48.5K (average of range endpoints)


holy shit

Isn't that still better than Japan though?

 

[airmangataosenai]

The lack of info in the OP makes me a sad panda.

 

[Aselith]

How the fuck did Dead Island sneak on again?

 

[Skiesofwonder]

It did 1.86m last holiday, it's not going to be up YoY, I gotta feeling you're just very optimistic about what the Wii can realistically do. You're gonna be pretty disappointed come Nov NPD.

And just for the record, judging by forecasts, not even Nintendo expect a 2 million US holiday season.

I'm not optimistic about the Wii, I'm optimistic about the $99 price tag in general. And I really don't care how well the Wii does, I just don't think the 360 passing the Wii is such a foregone conclusion like some seem to think, which was my original point.