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[terrisus]

The rest of the numbers, as I pointed out on Twitter and a few times tonight, were really close. Not one aggregate missed by more than 10K either side.

Well, given the aggregate of 57K for Vita, that would mean
47K < Vita < 50K

(Think we have everything else figured closer than than +/- 10K on aggregates will give us, but at least is a check for our math)

 

[yon61]

let's not be overly pessimistic... it's not at virtual boy levels yet... it could turn out to be at gamecube levels...

anyhow if you really think you made a mistake buying the system i think this is the best time to sell it... i'd personally keep it and enjoy whatever game will come up in the future

The thing about the Virtual Boy was that the whole concept of it was destined to fail. The Vita on the other hand could've potentially have been very successful, and it really should've, but it's on course to be a catastrophic failure, and that really says more about Sony's utter incompetence than anything else.

 

[jman2050]

They might not even hit half of that revised forecast. Depends on how much channel stuffing they do I guess.

 

[Petrae]

So... PSP+Vita<Wii?

Go figure, right? I had to look twice myself.

 

[bigtroyjon]

A lot of how we assess the 3DS in America from here on out will depend on how important a benchmark one feels the DS is.

I have a feeling that the importance of the DS benchmark will change as the 3DS starts to fall behind. My predicted scenario.

Now "It's selling better than the DS. Means it's doing great"

Same person 2 years from now "Doesn't matter that it's selling much worse than the DS. DS was an anomaly that we will never see again"

 

[AniHawk]

Vita: Simply the least desirable handheld yet released?

not if the psp go has anything to say about it

 

[A Human Becoming]

Not one aggregate missed by more than 10K either side.

With that, my (almost) final numbers are:

DS: 131k
360: 203k
PS3: 138.5k
Wii: 66.5k
3DS: 131k
Vita: 48.5k

 

[JordanLMiller]

Vita means "life" in latin.

 

[bill0527]

Vita means "life" in latin.

What's the Latin word for death?

 

[Gartooth]

Summer has always been a bad period for games, but would the situation change if publishers decided to release more games during this period, or is the general consumer just against summer gaming in general?

 

[AniHawk]

I have a feeling that the importance of the DS benchmark will change as the 3DS starts to fall behind. My predicted scenario.

Now "It's selling better than the DS. Means it's doing great"

Same person 2 years from now "Doesn't matter that it's selling much worse than the DS. DS was an anomaly that we will never see again"

pretty much. people act like it's a big accomplishment when the ds sold extremely poorly for its first several months. worse than the ps3 did when it came out.

 

[Petrae]

With that, my (almost) final numbers are:

DS: 131k
360: 203k
PS3: 137.5k
Wii: 66.5k
3DS: 131k
Vita: 48.5k

That's about as good as you're likely to get unless Nintendo or Sony comes forward with more information (which isn't likely).

 

[frankie_baby]

With that, my (almost) final numbers are:

DS: 131k
360: 203k
PS3: 137.5k
Wii: 66.5k
3DS: 131k
Vita: 48.5k

Without the XL announcement the 3ds could finally have got above ps3 oh well should trounce everything next month

 

[terrisus]

With that, my (almost) final numbers are:

DS: 131k
360: 203k
PS3: 137.5k
Wii: 66.5k
3DS: 131k
Vita: 48.5k

And PSP at around 30K

 

[Yopis]

The mass market doesn't care about killer graphics and dual analog sticks. Vita was made with GAF in mind which is why it's failing so hard.

Gaf hates graphics and wants the HD twins to go on forever.

 

[metalslimer]

pretty much. people act like it's a big accomplishment when the ds sold extremely poorly for its first several months. worse than the ps3 did when it came out.

Yep 3DS is not selling well right now unless you think the market for dedicated handhelds has contracted severely. You could possibly make the argument that its actually selling badly.

 

[JordanLMiller]

Summer has always been a bad period for games, but would the situation change if publishers decided to release more games during this period, or is the general consumer just against summer gaming in general?

I never understood this. I mean yes, you get lots of sales if you have a blockbuster game release around christmas, but aren't kids out of school for the summer so they would have more time to play games?

 

[nickcv]

The thing about the Virtual Boy was that the whole concept of it was destined to fail. The Vita on the other hand could've potentially have been very successful, and it really should've, but it's on course to be a catastrophic failure, and that really says more about Sony's utter incompetence than anything else.

i think that while the hw is absolutely stunning it was actually designed to fail...
when sony designed the hw they had gaf in mind, and that's the mistake as others have pointed out.

Vita means "life" in latin.

mors

 

[Petrae]

Summer has always been a bad period for games, but would the situation change if publishers decided to release more games during this period, or is the general consumer just against summer gaming in general?

That's a great question. Is there some sort of stigma to releasing quality games in June or July? Are publishers afraid that summer vacations remove gaming from the leisure equation?

I honestly don't know the answers to these questions.

 

[Tenki]

What's the Latin word for death?

Mortem.

 

[AniHawk]

i've sorta been of the mind that the vita would keep on trucking, that it'd have a rough year, but the ship could be righted with some decent software and maybe a price drop. nothing like the psp's worldwide number, but maybe 20-30 million? now it looks like it might be discontinued very shortly. i mean these are just terrible numbers. if ac3 and call of duty don't do anything, the system won't be with us beyond 2014.

 

[Miles X]

360 is now just a shade over 5 million behind the Wii.

 

[Petrae]

And PSP at around 30K

That's not even close, unfortunately. WAY too high.

But hey: 1,000 PS2 units sold in July!

 

[nhlducks35]

What's the Latin word for death?

PS Vita

 

[Meier]

Also they're expecting shipments of 10m units over the first 12-15 months on the market.

I can see no scenario where this thing is over 6m by the end of the year let alone 10m.

 

[AniHawk]

That's not even close, unfortunately. WAY too high.

But hey: 1,000 PS2 units sold in July!

all of their shipments must be going to europe.

PS Vita

fuck

 

[RurouniZel]

What's the Latin word for death?

Nogames

 

[Elios83]

You really think they'll hit the (already reduced once) shipment targets? Now we really need the lol smiley back

Judging the future of a recently released product based on sales during a post launch summer drought is not a very smart thing to do.
Sony has still all the possible weapons to use (price cuts, big games, maketing, redesigns) to change the situation.
I don't know if they're gonna hit their target, but I think it's obvious that with good games, aggressive bundles and an actual marketing campaign things will get much better than right now.
People tend to overract or simply they are biased, PS3 was considered to be dead for two years after its launch, it was almost hated, and now it's a pretty successful product with a lot of great games still to come.

 

[Megadragon15]

BREAKING or not
Vita < 50k

Good night. We hardly knew you.

 

[Drago]

PS Vita

I laughed

 

[Pranay]

When will the 360 19 month streak end ?

 

[Tenki]

PS Vita

:lol

 

[AniHawk]

I can see no scenario where this thing is over 6m by the end of the year let alone 10m.

well right now it's at 1.6m between america and japan. if you factor in europe to be 3.4 million, then they're halfway there. and that's without the holiday season.

When will the 360 19 month streak end ?

i'm guessing at month 19.

 

[KillerTravis]

What's the Latin word for death?

Morte?

 

[nickcv]

Yep 3DS is not selling well right now unless you think the market for dedicated handhelds has contracted severely. You could possibly make the argument that its actually selling badly.

completely agree

Mortem.

actually that's the accusative

mors
mortis
morti
mortem
mors
morte

plural

mortes
mort&#301;um
mort&#301;bus
mortes
mortes
mort&#301;bus

 

[A Human Becoming]

Further estimates:

YTD:

DS: 772.7k
360: 1.923m
PS3: 1.512m
Wii: 879.3k
3DS: 1.183m
Vita: 686.9k

LTD:

DS: 51.918m
360: 34.587m
PS3: 21.49m
Wii: 39.564m
3DS: 5.249m
Vita: 686.9k

 

[Bruno MB]

Iwata said 3DS sales in the West market aren't good so there really isn't any debatable on this subject.

We will see if New Super Wario Bros. 2 can move a substantial amount of hardware by itself along with the 3DS XL model.

 

[ZenaxPure]

Seeing the DS and 3DS so constantly close to each other month after month still makes me wonder how much of a boost the 3DS will see when Nintendo finally puts a bullet in the DS. Even at only 250k it would be competing for the top console spot each month at this rate... haha...

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

Yep 3DS is not selling well right now unless you think the market for dedicated handhelds has contracted severely. You could possibly make the argument that its actually selling badly.

Severe or not, just back to the size prior to the DS/PSP explosion. Or well, would be if both players hadn't decided $250+ was a great price to launch a handheld at. It was perfectly healthy in the past, can be in the future (at least with one handheld).

pretty much. people act like it's a big accomplishment when the ds sold extremely poorly for its first several months. worse than the ps3 did when it came out.

Well there is the one kind of biggish factor in favor of the 3DS, it hasn't had 2 holidays yet like the DS. That being said that will become an increasingly smaller factor as time goes on and yes inevitably the 3DS will fall behind the DS.

Of course on the flip side the DS was expected to get a worse curbstomping from the PSP than the GCN got from the PS2 in those early years. The Vita on the other hand, is something less of a challenge.

 

[terrisus]

That's not even close, unfortunately. WAY too high.

But hey: 1,000 PS2 units sold in July!

Ah. Well, guess I just kind of assumed it would hang around balacing out the upper bound of 80K PSP+Vita. Guess that upper bound itself was overly high, since obviously we have the Vita down to a 3K range.

But, hey, we got a PS2 number out of it, that's something.

 

[Megadragon15]

well right now it's at 1.6m between america and japan. if you factor in europe to be 3.4 million, then they're halfway there. and that's without the holiday season.



i'm guessing at month 19.

Where did you get this number from?

 

[Petrae]

When will the 360 19 month streak end ?

Probably November with WiiU.

Nothing really points to an alternate answer. PS3 revision and price cut aren't guarantees to generate interest, and Wii is finished. I suppose 3DS could sneak up on 360 in August if consumers are receptive to NSMB2 and the XL revision, but am not sold on that scenario.

 

[Meier]

well right now it's at 1.6m between america and japan. if you factor in europe to be 3.4 million, then they're halfway there. and that's without the holiday season.

Maybe at 4 million by the end of October? If they're lucky? 1 million a month in November and December is doable but unlikely. Europe might get it there I guess. 10 million is definitely completely out of reach though. I'd be SHOCKED if it did 7.

 

[DTKT]

I feel really dumb, but why isn't Diablo on that list?

 

[AniHawk]

wonder how the 3ds would be selling if it was $99.99 and the games were $29.99 or $34.99 at most.

the ds had some crazy months, but the gba was a beast. the gba basically did all its sales in the span of four years. if it had more time, it would have probably hit 60m in the states.

 

[Petrae]

I feel really dumb, but why isn't Diablo on that list?

The future is DIGITAL.

 

[frankie_baby]

Where did you get this number from?

Read his tag

 

[Tenki]

latin stuff

My latin is a little rusty

 

[Pranay]

I feel really dumb, but why isn't Diablo on that list?

..... digital ?

 

[AniHawk]

Maybe at 4 million by the end of October? If they're lucky? 1 million a month in November and December is doable but unlikely. Europe might get it there I guess. 10 million is definitely completely out of reach though. I'd be SHOCKED if it did 7.

i was joking. no way is europe twice the rest of the major markets, even if it has been sonyland for over a decade.