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[Dire]

I've only been able to find one post regarding Destiny sales figures. Can anybody else confirm/deny the 2.5-3million total range? That seems unbelievably bad even given the poor reviews.

Activision stated total preorders + day 1 sales would exceed 2million by use of the term "millions" expected to play on day 1. Also stated was more than 4million people played the beta.

Keep in mind for anybody doing something like comparing it to TitanfaIl, aside from the obvious issue of releasing on 4 consoles instead of 1, we're also now well into the annual (large) holiday spike.

 

[JAYSIMPLE]

I honestly do agree with this; every console maker has had rough systems for different reasons.

It more about what they do next.

Third console syndrome. There's always a fall before a return to potential greatness.

 

[KillerMan91]

I've only been able to find one post regarding Destiny sales figures. Can anybody else confirm/deny the 2.5-3million total range? That seems unbelievably bad even given the poor reviews.

You are pretty alone with that opinion. It's highest opening ever for new IP.

Activision stated total preorders + day 1 sales would exceed 2million by use of the term "millions" expected to play on day 1. Also stated was more than 4million people played the beta.

US =/= world.

 

[STEaMkb]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

Is this chart a comparison of 360 'sold-through' and Xbox One 'sold-in' numbers?

 

[Opiate]

GT5 sold almost as much as GT4 and and original GT (and more than GT2) worldwide so I don't know why suddenly GT7 is going to do ''bad''. GT6 sold the way it sold because insane decision to make it PS3 exclusive when you had the launch of your next platform. GT3 by the way was heavily bundled in US and that is why its american sales are so ridiculously high.

Right, I'm only saying that "bad" is a relative term and GT7 selling, say, 8M copies would be bad relative to historical norms for the franchise but good compared to most other games in existence. I think you could make a reasonable argument that GT5's sales were relatively poor by franchise standards, but still fine and not necessarily a sign of franchise decline. Mario games also see fluctuations, for example, but the franchise remains strong.

 

[ethomaz]

2.5-3 million in US alone is amazing good for a new IP.

It could be ~5 million WW for the first month.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I've only been able to find one post regarding Destiny sales figures. Can anybody else confirm/deny the 2.5-3million total range? That seems unbelievably bad even given the poor reviews.

Activision stated total preorders + day 1 sales would exceed 2million by use of the term "millions" expected to play on day 1. Also stated was more than 4million people played the beta.

Keep in mind for anybody doing something like comparing it to TitanfaIl, aside from the obvious issue of releasing on 4 consoles instead of 1, we're also now well into the annual (large) holiday spike.

The ~3m figure does not include digital downloads, which were a good chunk of Destiny sales (thus the record PSN revenue). There's no reasonable metric by which 3m+ for a new IP (a record) could be considered bad.

 

[ethomaz]

Right, I'm only saying that "bad" is a relative term and GT7 selling, say, 8M copies would be bad relative to historical norms for the franchise but good compared to most other games in existence. I think you could make a reasonable argument that GT5's sales were relatively poor by franchise standards, but still fine and not necessarily a sign of franchise decline. Mario games also see fluctuations, for example, but the franchise remains strong.

GT5 is the second best seller GT ever (well the PD data is old and shows it 1 below GT4 but PD need to add 2013 sales yet... so I'm convicted the next update will show GT5 > GT4)... just sold less than GT3 because it was sold with almost every PS2 in US for a good period.

It is the fastest selling GT game too... sold more in the same time frame.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

I've only been able to find one post regarding Destiny sales figures. Can anybody else confirm/deny the 2.5-3million total range? That seems unbelievably bad even given the poor reviews.

Activision stated total preorders + day 1 sales would exceed 2million by use of the term "millions" expected to play on day 1. Also stated was more than 4million people played the beta.

Keep in mind for anybody doing something like comparing it to TitanfaIl, aside from the obvious issue of releasing on 4 consoles instead of 1, we're also now well into the annual (large) holiday spike.

It is 2.7 million unbundled 3 million in total physical copies. That does not included digital. Just in the US alone making it the best selling new IP. Period. How much more did it need to do to not be "unbelievably bad?"

Edit: Beaten

 

[Deku Tree]

2.5-3 million in US alone is amazing good for a new IP.

It could be ~5 million WW for the first month.

Yup thats incredible sales and only in the US... and to think that it does not include Digital. I bought Digital and I think a huge amount of people also bought digital. For an online game like Destiny digital is a no-brainer. I bet millions more in the US bought digital.

 

[ethomaz]

Yup thats incredible sales and only in the US... and to think that it does not include Digital. I bought Digital and I think a huge amount of people also bought digital. For an online game like Destiny digital is a no-brainer. I bet millions more in the US bought digital.

My copy is Digital on PSN US too

Sony said this month is a record in sales in PS Store.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Is this chart a comparison of 360 'sold-through' and Xbox One 'sold-in' numbers?

It is using assumed/known NPD numbers (this is just US) so it should be sold through for both

 

[KillerMan91]

Right, I'm only saying that "bad" is a relative term and GT7 selling, say, 8M copies would be bad relative to historical norms for the franchise but good compared to most other games in existence. I think you could make a reasonable argument that GT5's sales were relatively poor by franchise standards, but still fine and not necessarily a sign of franchise decline. Mario games also see fluctuations, for example, but the franchise remains strong.

I guess you mean GT6? How can GT5 sales be relatively poor by franchise standards if it sold in line with most games in the series. Only GT3 is ahead of it by decent margin and that was mostly because insane american sales. GT7 will sell less in Japan than GT5 and maybe in US too (although PS4 being market leader instead of third place console could make up some of the natural decline in US) but considering how strong the sales for GT5 were in Europe despite PS3 not being same kind of success as PS2 sales for GT7 could actually grow in Europe (series is also growing in non traditional markets). Of course you could use GT6 as an example of declined interest for the series but considering its circumstances I don't think its sales are any indication for how big success GT7 will be.

 

[Loudninja]

Digital sales should be pretty great too

Sony Computer Entertainment America (SCEA) today announced that September 2014 marked the biggest month ever for PlayStation Store revenue in the Americas, led by the launch of Destiny from Activision and Bungie. Destiny broke PlayStation Network sales records across several categories, taking the top spot for pre-orders, day one sales, and week one sales. One month after the game’s launch, engagement among PlayStation fans continues to soar, as Destiny is the most-played title on PS4 with 125 million hours of gameplay.

.

 

[serversurfer]

Destiny sold 3M just in the US?? Wowzers.

Since the next exclusive coming out that can be legitimately called "huge" is Bloodborne, I'm declaring the listwarz a tie for the holidays, and doubling down on my prediction that the Destiny launch was where we were going to see consumers start declaring their allegiance. While there may be ebb and flow month to month, I think the split we saw in September will carry over to Q4 sales overall, with PS4 leading US sales roughly 2:1 through Christmas.

 

[Loudninja]

GTA5 will be huge.

 

[Curufinwe]

Pachter owns your souls and if we meet up at GDC I'll buy him a beer. God-tier trolling on his part and amazing self-promotion. Take notes.

The problem is next month the only way he can top it is by predicting the Wii U will win October.

 

[idlewild_]

While there may be ebb and flow month to month, I think the split we saw in September will carry over to Q4 sales overall, with PS4 leading US sales roughly 2:1 through Christmas.

Can't really see this happening unless the PS4 has an unreal December. XB1 has the white console + some pretty good deals so far for October and MCC for November, so those months should be at least close.

 

[Canis lupus]

GT5 is the second best seller GT ever (well the PD data is old and shows it 1 below GT4 but PD need to add 2013 sales yet... so I'm convicted the next update will show GT5 > GT4)... just sold less than GT3 because it was sold with almost every PS2 in US for a good period.

It is the fastest selling GT game too... sold more in the same time frame.

GT6 really could have been this gen's GT3 if it came out this year exclusively on PS4 (4 year development is more than enough). What a sick bundle that would make. If only the stars were aligned: DC not delayed/Kaz wanting to go after that 80M mostly inactive userbase rather than a madly growing fresh install base of 15-20M.

And then GT7 in 2017 with Project Morpheus, dayyum.

 

[Cess007]

The problem is next month the only way he can top it is by predicting the Wii U will win October.

He can always say that Vita wins October

 

[vicissitudes]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

I've been thinking about this for a bit and here is my theory for the sales trends we've been seeing. First, the data:

PS4 sold more in its launch month in the US than any console in history.
In 2014, PS4 did not perform as well and was routinely outsold by consoles like the PS2, Wii, and even the 360 in similar timeframes.
In its first September, PS4 sold more units than any other console's first September.

Now, I believe there are a couple of factors that attribute to this sales curve:

1. Supply at launch is much better. That means you will see more units sold at launch and deflated numbers after launch compared to past consoles. You see this with both the PS4 and the Xbone - both had huge sales out of the gate and then dropped off a cliff during the slow months.

2. Because of the internet, consumers are a lot more aware of releases. Take July and August of this year, for example. Many buyers waited until September to buy the PS4 because of the Destiny bundle, so you see deflated numbers for July and August, and inflated numbers for September. This is because many more potential buyers are aware that a white Destiny bundle was coming due to the internet. People watch E3 streams and announcements now when 10 years ago that wasn't the case. Forums such as GAF and gaming sites, podcasts, further propel these news. What this means is that sales will be more concentrated around big releases than ever before.

3. Consolidation towards large AAA titles. Because of increasing budgets, we are seeing fewer retail releases, and more focus on a few, AAA titles with larger budgets than before. This will further lead sales to concentrate in a few games and specific months.

You can see this behavior in Japan as well, where games like MH4G and Youkai Watch 2 open with 1m+ week 1, but by the time you get to the #10 game it's selling sub 10k.

 

[Guevara]

Is this chart a comparison of 360 'sold-through' and Xbox One 'sold-in' numbers?

It is using assumed/known NPD numbers (this is just US) so it should be sold through for both

Trust him, he's a PhD.

 

[noobie]

Do we have any rough estimates of PS+ subscription numbers. I feel that i have heard Sony announcing PS+ subscription doubled quite a few times.

So wandering if PS+ subscription were quite miserable because doubling of the subscription should not be so easy a feat. or may be Sony PS+ subscription falls during off season..

 

[Opiate]

GT5 is the second best seller GT ever (well the PD data is old and shows it 1 below GT4 but PD need to add 2013 sales yet... so I'm convicted the next update will show GT5 > GT4)... just sold less than GT3 because it was sold with almost every PS2 in US for a good period.

It is the fastest selling GT game too... sold more in the same time frame.

I meant GT6, not GT5.

However, where are you seeing that GT5 was the second best selling game in the franchise? I see it selling 10M units at last update. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that's not the data I'm seeing.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

The bundle is 16th on Amazon for October thus far, above the Xbox1. I would say a good 33%+ will be bundle.

PS4 Destiny bundle is a real monster in US. More so than UK certainly.

 

[LifEndz]

GTA5 will be huge.

I hope there's a B2G1 deal when it's out. I can't believe I'm going to buy it again.

I wonder what Sony's strategy for vita will be in light of these numbers.

 

[ItsTheNew]

Do we have any rough estimates of PS+ subscription numbers. I feel that i have hear Sony announcing PS+ subscription doubled quite a few times.

So wandering if PS+ subscription were quite miserable because doubling of the subscription should not be so easy a feat. or may be Sony PS+ subscription falls during off season..

Probably. PS+ came out late in the ps3 cycle after the laughable Qore service and aside from free games didn't offer anything to compelling. When the ps4 came out they put mp games behind the ps+ paywall and there weren't that many ps4 systems in the wild. I expect to hear it one more time by the end of the year

 

[LifEndz]

PS4 Destiny bundle is a real monster in US. More so than UK certainly.

Crazy part is that bundle wasn't even really a deal, at least not compared to what MS is doing with bundles (ie game included at no extra price). Outside of getting a white ps4, that bundle wasn't a bargain or a great deal and it did very well.

 

[JavaMind]

PS4 will be number one in october with 101% sure, about november i have no clue, but even if xbox wins will be tight...

 

[2thepoint]

Why is it everytime PS4 beats Xbox One in NPD, you see a flurry of posts saying wait till next month? It's the same thing every time.

I actually thought Xbox One could possibly win November 2014 NPD, but the momentum for PS4 is snowballing at this stage and I don't think anything can really topple it until a major price cut comes along with Halo 5 - and even then, it could still be outsold by PS4.

Sony won't be resting on their laurels.

They want all the marketshare they can get - those PS Plus subscriptions will be a huge money spinner for them in the long term.

 

[Mengy]

I've only been able to find one post regarding Destiny sales figures. Can anybody else confirm/deny the 2.5-3million total range? That seems unbelievably bad even given the poor reviews.

No, you are wrong. Destiny sold fantastic for a new IP. Titanfall wishes it had even half such a launch. Destiny's sales numbers are awesome, especially on the PS4.

 

[ethomaz]

I meant GT6, not GT5.

However, where are you seeing that GT5 was the second best selling game in the franchise? I see it selling 10M units at last update. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that's not the data I'm seeing.

Ohhhh fine... it is GT6.

Old list: http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

Gran Turismo 5 10,660k
Gran Turismo 4 11,730k

It didn't have 2013 and 2014 sales added... I believe it sold these 1 million before GT6 come out or at least was close to that... if you look 2013 chartz in EU you will see GT5 in good spots.

I can be wrong too but it will be really close.

And at the same time frame neither GT3 or GT4 sold what GT5 sold.

10,660k is for 2 years and 4 months... and looking at the Waybackmachine for June 2007 (2 years and 3 months after launch) you will see GT4 with 9,210k.

Edit - GT5 is the best selling GT in Europe and Asia too... just loose to GT4 and GT3 in NA and Japan.

 

[ProfessorMoran]

GT6 really could have been this gen's GT3 if it came out this year exclusively on PS4 (4 year development is more than enough). What a sick bundle that would make. If only the stars were aligned: DC not delayed/Kaz wanting to go after that 80M mostly inactive userbase rather than a madly growing fresh install base of 15-20M.
And then GT7 in 2017 with Project Morpheus, dayyum.

It all came down to GT4 coming late and that pushed everything back, with Prologue basically a bare-bone demo and GT5 proper launching late, the rationale is 2 GT per generation and GT6 releasing at a point where the audience is just ready to move to new hardware.

As much as I understand the desire not to throw away tech they've built up this whole generation, now they're basically behind once again when an earlier GT release on PS4 would have helped both the console AND move the franchise through bundles. It just looks to me that people just don't seem to like waiting for things anymore, this goes the same way for FF and GT.

 

[noobie]

Probably. PS+ came out late in the ps3 cycle after the laughable Qore service and aside from free games didn't offer anything to compelling. When the ps4 came out they put mp games behind the ps+ paywall and there weren't that many ps4 systems in the wild. I expect to hear it one more time by the end of the year

still knowing some PS+ subscription numbers will be good.

i certainly feel that doubling should not be so easily achievable in 1 month ...

i wander if the PS+ subscription is still less than 10 million

 

[serversurfer]

Can't really see this happening unless the PS4 has an unreal December. XB1 has the white console + some pretty good deals so far for October and MCC for November, so those months should be at least close.

And Sony are still selling Destiny bundles at a furious pace, and will likely continue to do so until they replace it with a GTA5 bundle in November.

MS got guns, but so do Sony. Halo was huge back in the day, but remasters are better suited as summer fodder, methinks, not a holiday lynchpin. TLoU will probably be on as many minds as Halo, especially since far fewer have already played it. As I said, there's plenty of stuff to draw interest this holiday — for both sides — but I don't think there's really much to get "excited" about before Bloodborne.

 

[Dire]

The ~3m figure does not include digital downloads, which were a good chunk of Destiny sales (thus the record PSN revenue). There's no reasonable metric by which 3m+ for a new IP (a record) could be considered bad.

Context is everything.

-The budget for this game was absolutely unprecedented for any game, new ip or 50th iterative sequel. It had a larger budget than the budget bloat beast that is GTA5 for crying out loud.
-It was also developed by arguably the single best known console shooter developer and published by the undoubtedly most well known console shooter publisher. They made sure everybody knew this.
-A star studded cast. Dinklage is one of the hottest names in media right now. Investing in someone like him for a new IP is again all but unheard of.
-It launched right at the entry to holiday season when sales starts to spike upwards.
-It launched with uniquely skinned hardware bundles
-Effective preorder coercion and appealing demos resulted in "millions" of units sold on day 1 (think about what that means for the other 3 weeks of tracking)
-$500million of units were shipped on day 1. This gives insight into Activision's expectations of sales.
-It launched on 4 different consoles. The two last gen have a combined userbase in excess of 160,000,000 with a large chunk of that from the US.

It is a new IP, but it by no means received the new IP treatment, especially in terms of budget nor in initial interest.

 

[Dante316]

Context is everything.

-The budget for this game was absolutely unprecedented for any game, new ip or 50th iterative sequel. It had a larger budget than the budget bloat beast that is GTA5 for crying out loud.
-It was also developed by arguably the single best known console shooter developer and published by the undoubtedly most well known console shooter publisher. They made sure everybody knew this.
-A star studded cast. Dinklage is one of the hottest names in media right now. Investing in someone like him for a new IP is again all but unheard of.
-It launched right at the entry to holiday season when sales starts to spike upwards.
-It launched with uniquely skinned hardware bundles
-Effective preorder coercion and appealing demos resulted in "millions" of units sold on day 1 (think about what that means for the other 3 weeks of tracking)
-$500million of units were shipped on day 1. This gives insight into Activision's expectations of sales.
-It launched on 4 different consoles. The two last gen have a combined userbase in excess of 160,000,000 with a large chunk of that from the US.

It is a new IP, but it by no means received the new IP treatment, especially in terms of budget nor in initial interest.

Valid points but its still unknown game. Doesn't matter how big developer and publisher it is. Even naughty dog didn't expect last of us to do well being it was a new IP. If Destiny 2 fails to exceed destiny 1 then its a failure of the company and developer, till than its doing pretty good.

 

[ethomaz]

Context is everything.

-The budget for this game was absolutely unprecedented for any game, new ip or 50th iterative sequel. It had a larger budget than the budget bloat beast that is GTA5 for crying out loud.
-It was also developed by arguably the single best known console shooter developer and published by the undoubtedly most well known console shooter publisher. They made sure everybody knew this.
-A star studded cast. Dinklage is one of the hottest names in media right now. Investing in someone like him for a new IP is again all but unheard of.
-It launched right at the entry to holiday season when sales starts to spike upwards.
-It launched with uniquely skinned hardware bundles
-Effective preorder coercion and appealing demos resulted in "millions" of units sold on day 1 (think about what that means for the other 3 weeks of tracking)
-$500million of units were shipped on day 1. This gives insight into Activision's expectations of sales.
-It launched on 4 different consoles. The two last gen have a combined userbase in excess of 160,000,000 with a large chunk of that from the US.

It is a new IP, but it by no means received the new IP treatment, especially in terms of budget nor in initial interest.

Can you share with us the Destiny's budget?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Ohhhh fine... it is GT6.

Old list: http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

Gran Turismo 5 10,660k
Gran Turismo 4 11,730k

It didn't have 2013 and 2014 sales added... I believe it sold these 1 million before GT6 come out or at least was close to that... if you look 2013 chartz in EU you will see GT5 in good spots.

I can be wrong too but it will be really close.

And at the same time frame neither GT3 or GT4 sold what GT5 sold.

10,660k is for 2 years and 4 months... and looking at the Waybackmachine for June 2007 (2 years and 3 months after launch) you will see GT4 with 9,210k.

What is also interesting is we have 3 GT games selling 10 million across 3 different gens and the first GT on the systems always sells more.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Huh so just caught up. This thread is now the 3rd longest NPD thread ever and is on pace for spot #2 although doubt it unseats #1

 

[serversurfer]

Gran Turismo is the real deal. That's why it attracts so many haters.

 

[tfur]

Why is it everytime PS4 beats Xbox One in NPD, you see a flurry of posts saying wait till next month? It's the same thing every time.

I actually thought Xbox One could possibly win November 2014 NPD, but the momentum for PS4 is snowballing at this stage and I don't think anything can really topple it until a major price cut comes along with Halo 5 - and even then, it could still be outsold by PS4.

Sony won't be resting on their laurels.

They want all the marketshare they can get - those PS Plus subscriptions will be a huge money spinner for them in the long term.

I think you have helped me refine what needs to be the next entry on the chalk board.

"next month"

Its fits well.
It touches all the right spots, and it will be both true and false depending on the timeline. It can satisfy both the chalkboard aficionados and detractors.

 

[Majmun]

Yeah, GT is huge. It's basically Sony's Halo when it comes to sales.

GT6 release timing was a bit unfortunate, though. But I'm sure that GT7 is going to be massive.

 

[FF Seraphim]

Yeah, GT is huge. It's basically Sony's Halo when it comes to sales.

GT6 release timing was a bit unfortunate, though. But I'm sure that GT7 is going to be massive.

First GT game for the PS4, it will easily sell 3+ million in Europe alone and it will move systems in that region.
Whatever month GT7 releases will be another crazy month for Sony especially if they bundle it with the system.

 

[Loudninja]

Hmm sports game really did not do that well on the XB1.

Its pretty odd.

 

[GeoramA]

Why is it everytime PS4 beats Xbox One in NPD, you see a flurry of posts saying wait till next month? It's the same thing every time.

I actually thought Xbox One could possibly win November 2014 NPD, but the momentum for PS4 is snowballing at this stage and I don't think anything can really topple it until a major price cut comes along with Halo 5 - and even then, it could still be outsold by PS4.

Sony won't be resting on their laurels.

They want all the marketshare they can get - those PS Plus subscriptions will be a huge money spinner for them in the long term.

Some people don't want to accept that America isn't Xbox-land anymore. XB1 was supposed to win:

March (Titanfall)
June (price-drop)
September (Pachter's prediction)

Now it's November because of a remastered collection of all things.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Why is it everytime PS4 beats Xbox One in NPD, you see a flurry of posts saying wait till next month? It's the same thing every time.

I actually thought Xbox One could possibly win November 2014 NPD, but the momentum for PS4 is snowballing at this stage and I don't think anything can really topple it until a major price cut comes along with Halo 5 - and even then, it could still be outsold by PS4.

Sony won't be resting on their laurels.

They want all the marketshare they can get - those PS Plus subscriptions will be a huge money spinner for them in the long term.

I honestly thought bone was going to win March with Titanfall. I was ready to place money down on it. But then it didn't. So honestly, now, I don't know what to think.

I'm thinking again the Xbone will win November with MCC, but I am doubting myself. But then again, Sony is pretty much tapped out this holiday. They have jack shit while MS still has Sunset and MCC. So yeah, Sony has the momentum, but MS has the exclusives.

Fuck, its 50/50 for me right now.

 

[BlackProdigy]

Sony fans damage control like Xbox owners didnt buy digital in droves also

 

[Majmun]

Some people don't want to accept that America isn't Xbox-land anymore. XB1 was supposed to win:

March (Titanfall)
June (price-drop)
September (Pachter's prediction)

Now it's November because of a remastered collection of all things.

It's Halo, though. The franchise is very popular in NA.

But Ps4 is going to get GTAV advertising, so I dunno.

Sony fans damage control like Xbox owners didnt buy digital in droves also

Ps4 userbase is larger, so the chances of digital PSN sales being higher than digital XBL sounds quite logical.

 

[Dire]

More on Destiny. That is Activision's stock. You can clearly see the leadup to Destiny followed by the market reaction since its release. The reason I share this is because I think a lot of people in this thread are engaged in a bit of cognitive dissonance. The line of thought now seems to be "Well, it's not bad. It's even good for a new IP! Yeah!" But if you read the threads, thoughts and consensus prior to the release of Destiny it was night and day. These numbers are bad, nay terrible, compared to what people were expecting. To act like any meaningful chunk of people actually expected this is just disingenuous. People from all walks ranging from random forum poster to multimillion dollar investor/analysts were expecting far more than this. I just find it strange that now people on here are now just instead repeating Activision's marketing lines like this is in any way normal, let alone good!