Support NeoGAF

[Caja 117]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

I wonder how much of those 360 were consoles sold because of RRoD.

 

[LowEndTorque]

Maybe I'm confused, but what would the Xbox One need a chalkboard for?

I thought those were for things that were generally selling horribly. Not for "Not in first place."

Just to poke fun at the frequent arguments we see that the tide of the console wars will completely turn when [Titanfall/Second tier countries/Price drop/Kinectless sku/Phil Spencer/Halo/China, etc. etc.] happens.

The chalkboard was still a thing for the PS3 even after it wasn’t selling horribly and it was all in good fun.

 

[Opiate]

Actually, I don't think you're thinking it through entirely. This line of thinking would be reasonable if all these platforms were targeting the exact same kind of consumer and/or the exact same consumer interests. In which case, sure, if iOS and PS4 were pitching to the same kind of consumer interests/needs, then it would be precisely correct to say one is just more compelling than the other based on sales. But there's a lot less overlap between the interests being pitched with iOS vs PS4 than PS4 vs XBO. In the latter case they are pitching to almost 100% overlapping interests.

And while the Wii was pitching to a lot of the same overlapping interest as the PS3 and 360, it was still not anywhere near 100% and also raises the issue of sustainability. Being "compelling" doesn't necessarily translate into an enduring interest.

There's plenty of extenuating circumstances here that don't make a simple sales comparison between two very similar platforms to determine which is more compelling to customers, the right methodology to then apply across various other, much more disparate platforms.

Not to say you don't have to factor for the sort of preference bias that you identified in enthusiast debates like this, but I don't think that's a major contributing factor in this case.

Of course you can always stratify the market to frame the discussion however you like. For instance, people who say they strongly enjoy Halo are almost certainly a specific sub-market that is buying the Xbox One disproportionately more often than the PS4 (or any other platform, for that matter).

People tend to frame this in ways that best suit their own personal preferences. Look at Japanese Media Create threads as an example: people will fight about PS4/Wii U sales dominance even as the market makes it unequivocally clear that the real answer is that the market doesn't want either of them. People are so locked in to a very specific frame of reference that they'd argue over deck chair placement even as the Titanic sinks.

Further, people are rarely dissuaded by arguments about market segmentation. Many are convinced that iOS gamers, for example, simply don't understand how awesome The Last of Us is, or how great Halo is, and that if they just had a chance to really play and understand them, they'd "see the light," as it were.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

I personally feel like the X360 had a stronger 1st year lineup and it also had NO COMPETITION until November. It's tough to put it all into context.

 

[Krakn3Dfx]

I need the :lol smiley back. This is priceless. Guess that makes Sony a good corporation. Nintendo too... they have never, ever done any wrong, even when the Pimp Hand was strong.

Not going to wade into this other than say to look at the number of companies/development houses MS has bought only to close the doors on, now look at the number Sony/Nintendo have done the same with.

When I worked for MS in the mid to late 90s, it was a running joke about how companies that would announce a competing technology would "suffer the wrath of the Microsoft wallet". MS has left a trail of dead companies in their wake over the past few decades, a lot of them providing innovative solutions to workflow and productivity problems, only to be absorbed, shut down, and mostly forgotten.

So yeah, when people talk about the possibility of MS using their money and power to basically eliminate the competition, that's not altogether unheard of when it comes to MS.

 

[Mengy]

How low did Wii U sell, any numbers yet?

The Wii-U sold about (see Aquamarine for numbers) units for September, just a few thousand more than the Xbox 360.

 

[bronson]

I wonder how much of those 360 were consoles sold because of RRoD.

Really thought we were done with this.

 

[Guevara]

Really thought we were done with this.

Either way, my chart shows the first 11 months. Way too early even if you think replacement consoles were a factor.

 

[2thepoint]

Just to poke fun at the frequent arguments we see that the tide of the console wars will completely turn when [Titanfall/Second tier countries/Price drop/Kinectless sku/Phil Spencer/Halo/China, etc. etc.] happens.

The chalkboard was still a thing for the PS3 even after it wasn’t selling horribly and it was all in good fun.

I second the motion to bring back the beloved chalkboard.

 

[*Nightwing]

Adding to this line of reasoning, most consumers do not actively read gaming news (or any news). It doesn't matter how many articles or blog posts of tweets MS makes about their new policies, they won't reach the non-enthusiast masses that are required for huge sales success. Most people get their gaming news indirectly, from friends or Facebook, so they only hear the stories that generate a lot of buzz, which are basically major announcements. So when MS's major announcement was that they were releasing a new console that was required an Internet connection, even though they changed course, a lot of consumers simply didn't hear that news.

great points, to add even little more, it seems to me like all these steps MS have taken in their 180's, it just seems like they are trying to catch up to Sony. If thats all they are doing, all they can hope to accomplish is survive. It really isnt a plan to overcome and win at any point, its just to catch up, and they are failing at that. All these points made by Ragincajun and neverknowsbest just seems to be a perfect shitstorm of mediocrity from MS that they have no apparent plan to get themselves out of. Putting myself in MS shoes, I have absolutely no idea what, if anything, they could do to turn around, but a little humility and cutting down on the BS and spin would be a start and maybe a first in the industry?

 

[Dragonborn]

Really thought we were done with this.

Well it certainly had an effect, but given the gulf in software sales between the two consoles (in NA), I'd say the 360 still did really, really well, even if one were to account for RROD.

 

[kaching]

Of course you can always stratify the market to frame the discussion however you like.

...People tend to frame this in ways that best suit their own personal preferences.

By the same token, homogenizing the market like you are can work towards the same end. Are you suggesting I've identified a stratification that only exists for the preferences of my personal argument and for which there is no solid market data suggesting the stratification exists of its own merit?

 

[2thepoint]

The only way to end these silly console wars is for Microsoft to acquire Nintendo & Sony.

Surely, fans of both platforms will love the opportunity to become united under ONE banner.

 

[Raziel]

JRPGs? Time to invest in a handheld or a mobile, not a ps4.

Man it's going to be hilarious trying to put the FF15/KH3/Type-0/Persona 5 discs into your handheld.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Man it's going to be hilarious trying to put the FF15/KH3/Type-0/Persona 5 discs into your handheld.

Spoken like FFXV is ever being released anywhere.

 

[gcubed]

As I've argued in NPD threads for months where both consoles sold less than their predecessors and people proclaimed that the sky was falling and the gaming industry was doomed, I'm pretty sure that what we're seeing here is that the early adopters adopted earlier than usual while the people who usually wait a year or two still waited/are waiting, so a lot of the sales that usually happen over the course of the first year happened in the first 2-3 months instead.

The biggest contributor to this is probably that unlike previous generations where the new consoles had mediocre to shit lineups for the first year while the old consoles had a lot of their best games come out, almost every major release in the past year has been cross-gen. So people bought the consoles thinking "yeah, maybe the exclusives will still be mediocre to shit for the first year or so, but at least I'll be able to play the better versions of CoD, AC, etc."

also remember that the 360 was basically non-existent directly after launch. You couldn't buy one even if you wanted to

 

[Dragonborn]

Man it's going to be hilarious trying to put the FF15/KH3/Type-0/Persona 5 discs into your handheld.

That's what Remote play is for man!

 

[ethomaz]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

Interesting...

I start to think WW 360 is already ahead Xbone launch aligned... the shipment of the two was close at least in the last quarter.

 

[Guevara]

Interesting...

I start to think WW 360 is already ahead Xbone launch aligned... the shipment of the two was close at least in the last quarter.

Very possible. I wish we had better international numbers.

 

[Shadow_FFVI]

Did the 360 have a great first holiday season? I wonder if the Xbox One will still be the fastest selling xbox console after this year ends.

 

[FireCloud]

Finally, caught up with this thread after starting it last night.

Have to say that this NPD thread has been quite entertaining so far; Gifs, meltdowns, high saline content, etc.

Gotta say I wasn't expecting such a large number from the PS4 this month. I was thinking something more like 300K.

Congrats to Destiny for their strong month as well. Most of all, good job new Vita owners! Let's keep the dream alive.

 

[Version 3.0]

Either way, my chart shows the first 11 months. Way too early even if you think replacement consoles were a factor.

The idea that replacement consoles had a large impact on hardware sales has been pretty well countered many times in NPD threads by looking at the 360's excellent software attach rate. If a great deal of consoles were 2nd (or 3rd, or 11th) purchases, then its attach rate would climb into hard-to-believe territory.

All that said, my launch 360 red ringed in August 2006, at less than 9 months old, and I was not remotely alone.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I actually agree with those that say the most reasonable explanation for PS4 sales trumping Xbox One sales is that the PS4 is a more compelling platform for consumers.

However, I'm not sure everyone who is saying this is thinking this through entirely. For instance, one could make the reasonable argument that this means iOS is an even more compelling platform than the PS4 is. Also using the same reasoning, one would have to conclude that the Wii was simply a better platform than the PS3 or Xbox 360 were.

I actually agree with those statements, but I suspect a lot of people are going to be inconsistent and only use this reasoning when it suits their platform preferences. The Wii's sales were driven by hype, but the PS4's sales are truly deserved. The Xbox One sales are relatively low because it's a mediocre platform, but Vita sales are low because people just don't understand how awesome the Vita is. DS sales were amazing because the platform was amazing, but iOS sales are amazing because people buy anything Apple makes like sheep.

Not everyone will fall in to this trap, of course, but I suspect a lot do. When something you like sells well, it's because it's deserved, and the free market works. When something you don't like sells well, it's all hype and fluff and people are being brainwashed.

That really depends on the person gaming habits for someone like me iOS will never be more compelling than PS4 , PC has much better chance at that .
Also you are comparing a hardware platform to a software platform .

 

[Deleted member 17706]

that pachter damage control is funny! He mad.
Has the dude ever been right???

I bet he just got word that Destiny sold more on Xbox One than PS4 and assumed that that also meant more Xbox Ones sold in the month of September.

 

[The_lascar]

If you don't want to put up with the bullshit, here's the NPD website: https://www.npd.com

Click "contact" and get all the NPD numbers hassle free, no begging, no hints, no clues, no puzzles, no charts.

--------------------------

So, Destiny is essentially Halo 4.5, as far as sales are concerned.

And by that I mean how stronger US sales are compared to the rest of the world. Launch month comparison:

Watch Dogs
- US = ~3.2x UK

Destiny
- US = ~5x UK

We don't have much info on other countries, but Watch Dogs was selling on par with Destiny in Europe.

I can't give numbers yet, but in France Watch Dogs is way bigger than Destiny.

 

[Servbot24]

Adding to this line of reasoning, most consumers do not actively read gaming news (or any news). It doesn't matter how many articles or blog posts of tweets MS makes about their new policies, they won't reach the non-enthusiast masses that are required for huge sales success. Most people get their gaming news indirectly, from friends or Facebook, so they only hear the stories that generate a lot of buzz, which are basically major announcements. So when MS's major announcement was that they were releasing a new console that was required an Internet connection, even though they changed course, a lot of consumers simply didn't hear that news.

I still find people who think One is online only and doesn't allow used games. And I even work at a tech company.

 

[Guevara]

Did the 360 have a great first holiday season? I wonder if the Xbox One will still be the fastest selling xbox console after this year ends.

Xbox 360
Oct 2006: 218k
Nov 2006: 511k
Dec 2006: 1,132k

or 1,861k in 3 months

To fall behind the One would have to sell only 1,000k in the same period. Seems unlikely.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

I need a chart like this for PS4 that shows PS3, PS2 and PS1 comparisons.
Can someone make a chart like that?

 

[theprodigy]

I can't give numbers yet, but in France Watch Dogs is way bigger than Destiny.

figured, Watch Dogs supposedly did better than Destiny in Europe (outside of the UK)

 

[Deku Tree]

Why are we getting all these carefully designed Destiny PR statistics, rather than actual sales numbers?

 

[Bgamer90]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

360 being the only console of its gen for a whole year really helped it. Xbox One is facing stiff competition.

I really think that MS will definitely try to realese the next Xbox before the PS5. But man, it feels a bit silly talking about next gen and/or ending things now when there's so much stuff coming out soon as well as 2015 (which may be one of the best gaming years of all time).

 

[Opiate]

By the same token, homogenizing the market like you are can work towards the same end. Are you suggesting I've identified a stratification that only exists for the preferences of my personal argument and for which there is no solid market data suggesting the stratification exists of its own merit?

I have no idea what you personal preferences are. I am talking generally: I'm saying that many people use a specific framing because it's convenient for their argument, and that as soon as that framing is no longer convenient for their argument, they will alter it immediately.

As another example, people will often include the PC platform in discussions when it suits them, and exclude it when it doesn't. In an argument about iOS, I will often see PC bundled with the consoles because people want to frame them as a united front against the onslaught of the mobile menace. However, in other discussions, those same people will act as if the PC is a completely different market segment, and thus its success cannot be compared to the Playstation or Xbox.

Many people will organize the framing however they see fit to suit their argument. Again, that isn't specific to you; I have not read enough of your personal posts to have any idea. I'm saying these inconsistencies are true of many people, but not all, as a generality.

 

[Opiate]

That really depends on the person gaming habits for someone like me iOS will never be more compelling than PS4 , PC has much better chance at that .
Also you are comparing a hardware platform to a software platform .

Of course, when we say any platform is "very compelling" or that it is "not compelling", we don't mean "no one in the world thinks this is a good platform and everyone agrees its bad."

The Wii U is clearly not a compelling platform generally, but that doesn't preclude a single, specific person from enjoying it far more than the PS4 or Xbox One (or PC or iOS, etc. etc.) There is a guy out there, somewhere, who thought the Virtua Boy was totally awesome; this does not change the general truth that the platform was received poorly and sold terribly.

If our barrier for "compelling platform" is that some single, specific person out there thinks it was really cool, then every platform ever made is compelling, which seems like a meaningless definition.

 

[Biker19]

The only way to end these silly console wars is for Microsoft to acquire Nintendo & Sony.

Surely, fans of both platforms will love the opportunity to become united under ONE banner.

That would be awful for the gaming industry if that were to happen, especially with Microsoft at the helm.

 

[turcy]

That would be awful for the gaming industry if that were to happen, especially with Microsoft at the helm.

??

they release one sub-par console [out of three], during a short [& finite] period of mistakenly chosen management, and you write them off?

yes, MS buying up the others would be bad, but MS has every potential to be a great gaming company again.

 

[Arkham]

I am also quite disappointed in the PS4. It's like it almost got there, but couldn't make a definitive statement either way. Like a woodchuck would chuck all the wood he could, but it wasn't enough.

What's with the affiliate link in your tag? Made me have to go and delete my cookies.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Of course, when we say any platform is not compelling, we don't mean "no one in the world thinks this is a good platform and everyone agrees its bad."

The Wii U is clearly not a compelling platform generally, but that doesn't preclude a single, specific person from enjoying it far more than the PS4 or Xbox One (or PC or iOS, etc. etc.) There is a guy out there, somewhere, who thought the Virtua Boy was totally awesome; this does not change the general truth that the platform was received poorly, sold terribly, and thus was not a compelling platform.

If our barrier for "compelling platform" is that some single, specific person out there thinks it was really cool, then every platform ever made is compelling, which seems like a meaningless definition.

Yes that is true but certain platforms people buy for certain reasons and when having certain debates that becomes a very important factor .

 

[Kabuki Quantum Lover]

??

they release one sub-par console [out of three], during a short [& finite] period of mistakenly chosen management, and you write them off?

yes, MS buying up the others would be bad, but MS has every potential to be a great gaming company again.

The intended policies attached to said sub-par consoles and intentions to return to those policies is what makes a Microsoft-dominated scenario a dark one.

 

[cakely]

also remember that the 360 was basically non-existent directly after launch. You couldn't buy one even if you wanted to

I do remember that, because I wanted to get a 360 and I couldn't.

I eventually subscribed to a service that would text me when one showed up at a nearby store.

I don't miss those days, Amazon pre-order is such an amazing convenience.

 

[MauMau]

What console numbers do we have?

 

[xxracerxx]

What console numbers do we have?

All of them. Search Aquamarine's posts.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I assume "bad sales" is a relative term. Compared to Gears of War, GT7 will likely have great sales. Compared to GT3, GT7 will likely have poor sales.

If the next Call of Duty sells 10M units LTD, are those good sales are bad sales?

Poor? GT3 did 15 million, GT5 did 10 million (GT5P doing 5 million)....how much are we expecting for GT7?

Man it's going to be hilarious trying to put the FF15/KH3/Type-0/Persona 5 discs into your handheld.

Don't forget Tales, Ys 8 and Disgaea 5

Spoiler

although ys is on PSV

 

[LOCK]

I'm saddened by the potential loss of cream and sugar.



Another nail in the coffin of sales-age.

Aquamarine you have to be like Jesus or something.

 

[KillerMan91]

I assume "bad sales" is a relative term. Compared to Gears of War, GT7 will likely have great sales. Compared to GT3, GT7 will likely have poor sales.

If the next Call of Duty sells 10M units LTD, are those good sales are bad sales?

GT5 sold almost as much as GT4 and and original GT (and more than GT2) worldwide so I don't know why suddenly GT7 is going to do ''bad''. GT6 sold the way it sold because insane decision to make it PS3 exclusive when you had the launch of your next platform. GT3 by the way was heavily bundled in US and that is why its american sales are so ridiculously high.

 

[Lady Gaia]

The only way to end these silly console wars is for Microsoft to acquire Nintendo & Sony.

Surely, fans of both platforms will love the opportunity to become united under ONE banner.

Ugh. That sounds every bit as appealing as merging the Democratic and Republican parties in the US. No, what I want is healthy competition without undue pandering to a subset of the market or to partners.

A Nintendo / Somy merger might make some sense on paper (the resulting financial position and market share would be compelling) but I doubt the corporate cultures would be compatible and it's far from clear why Nintendo would want to get stuck in the morass of Sony's legacy businesses.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Adding to this line of reasoning, most consumers do not actively read gaming news (or any news). It doesn't matter how many articles or blog posts of tweets MS makes about their new policies, they won't reach the non-enthusiast masses that are required for huge sales success. Most people get their gaming news indirectly, from friends or Facebook, so they only hear the stories that generate a lot of buzz, which are basically major announcements. So when MS's major announcement was that they were releasing a new console that was required an Internet connection, even though they changed course, a lot of consumers simply didn't hear that news.

What's also interesting is the response you get when you tell them that MS reversed their unpopular policies. It's not: "Fantastic! Now I can go buy a xbone!". Its more like: "oh,ok". Indifference is what it is. They're not excited yet. That's my anecdote anyways.

 

[SeventhSon]

Why are we getting all these carefully designed Destiny PR statistics, rather than actual sales numbers?

YOU NEED A NEOGAF DECODER RING.

 

[Kathian]

??

they release one sub-par console [out of three], during a short [& finite] period of mistakenly chosen management, and you write them off?

yes, MS buying up the others would be bad, but MS has every potential to be a great gaming company again.

I honestly do agree with this; every console maker has had rough systems for different reasons.

It more about what they do next.

 

[allan-bh]

I'm saddened by the potential loss of cream and sugar.



Another nail in the coffin of sales-age.

Aquamarine you have to be like Jesus or something.

Quote creamsugar post and you will see the light.

 

[idlewild_]

What's with the affiliate link in your tag? Made me have to go and delete my cookies.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=47790794&postcount=36