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[Suikoguy]

So is Sony banking on the PS4 demand staying hot enough in NA to where consumers won't pick up an XB1 instead?

I dunno. I guess that'll probably be fine? Hard to say.

It's anybodies guess, it's obviously easier to mass manufacturer then past consoles, who knows how many they are churning out a month.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

That's only because of the Wii phenomenon. Even if you ignore the Wii completely, the console market is expanding slowly and steadily. They just have to outperform their previous consoles and it would still seem like an increase. Let me show you something interesting:

Ignoring Wii completely is asinine.

As it contributed to the growth of the USA home console market. Significantly. Without it you get marginal growth at best, instead of the insane growth of the prior generation. Without both selling in the area of 60 million units USA alone you're looking at market contraction. If both follow the PS3 and 360 market contraction on the order of 40 million units.

 

[ascii42]

Wait . . . people actually bought NBA Live 14?

If my math is right, a mininum of 500 people had to buy the game to make those percentages.

 

[zeopower6]

So, 400k now is bomba?

For something like Zelda, I think so.

 

[nib95]

This is the thinking as I understand it.



MS wanted to dominate US/UK enough to keep it close and make crazy money off of services.


Sony wants to sell more consoles. Period.


If at the end of '14 the ps4 and xb1 are close in the us/UK and Sony is trampling ms everywhere else... Sony wins at what it wants - games. And having the larger install base worldwide means that the price for Microsoft to money hat games goes up drastically with their reduced install base. There's also plenty of data that points to demand giving the ps4 legs well into '14 where the xb1 will get a march/April bump from titanfall and flatline until Halo. So there's a good chance that by next fall Sony has worldwide and us/UK. At that point it's a catastrophe for MS.


I'm guessing here as well but I also don't think they knew demand in the US would be this high. I mean it's not like Sony short changed NA. They broke the damn record for launch consoles sold. The problem for the US in December is Sony is in 30+ and growing markets and xb1 is in 13 while concentrating on 2 of them.


Will be fun. And competition will fight off complacency.

Awesome. Thanks for the updates.

 

[speculawyer]

WiiU numbers look bad, but considering those sales numbers along side of 2 consoles launching it's expected. Now that everything is out I can see the WiiU slowly climb out of this hole it's in.

/Dead

 

[allan-bh]

If 424k for PS3 is real, we are missing Wii and DS numbers.

 

[GhostTrick]

So 2DS at 99$ bundles stil could not outsell The PS4 or the Xbone. The 3DS family sold less than November 2011. So much for doing great.

Great numbers for the PS4 and Xbone. No exclusive of either consoles is not surprising. Mario and Zelda bomba.

Coming from the guy saying 3DS is bombing while Vita is doing decently based on expectations... allow me to cast some doubt on your thinking, sir.

 

[AranhaHunter]

Sony giving up the lead in the US to launch in Asia (a place where the XB1 has 0.01% chance of beating them and the Wii is struggling big time) is a bone head move of epic proportions. Something only Sony would do.

 

[HamPster PamPster]

It doesn't make sense to me. This is like diverting reinforcements in the War on Obesity to Whole Foods. The troops need to go to McDonalds.

I think its in Sony interest to have Microsoft do well. 95% of the games will come to both platforms so the bigger the install base gets for the current gen the more developers jump on board and the more money they dump into their projects. If Microsoft wants to focus on and saturate two countries it makes sense for Sony to let them and expand the market elsewhere.

 

[FinalStageBoss]

You guys have to remember that sony has to supply many more countries. MS willl focus mainly on NA and UK.

 

[EDarkness]

Given Ghosts sales for it, it's likely I won't have the chance to give them anymore money anyways

Maybe that's true, but the next CoD will probably be from Treyarch, and so it has a good chance of getting a Wii U version. The thing is, they need to go all out or don't bother. No one wants a half-assed version. People expected the Wii U version to be supported better than the Wii versions in the past, but that just isn't the case. Activison really doesn't give a damn. So why should we as players give a damn?

 

[ethomaz]

Cream and sugar we need you....

 

[PBY]

I think its in Sony interest to have Microsoft do well. 95% of the games will come to both platforms so the bigger the install base gets for the current gen the more developers jump on board and the more money they dump into their projects. If Microsoft wants to focus on and saturate two countries it makes sense for Sony to let them and expand the market elsewhere.

what

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

haha, always nice to be quoted. I saw that big block of green but did NOT remember posting that. I was like "WTF" for a minute.

Haha, it's a really eye opening quote that makes anyone saying "console gaming is dying!" look like an idiot. It should honestly be quoted more than Y2Kev's remarks on competition, because it definitely bears repeating (no offense Kev, i like your quote too!).

I'm gonna get a lot of mileage out of it, so sorry if you see random big green blocks in the future!

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Did you really expect 2DS to outsell next gen consoles at launch?

The 2DS, which was basically made as a gateway drug for young kids to get into Pokemon? Come on, man.

No, you come on. I expected a 99$ platformm to sell more than 400-500$ platform. Stop spinning bad results. The 3DS family sold less than November 2011 even with bundles and lower price point.

 

[BronsonLee]

I expected it to crush the 360. It didn't. Nintendo's got issues in both their handheld and console businesses.

That's because you're crazy. For crying out loud, you want to build a living room on your roof!

360 and PS3 had those Black Friday bundles all over, as did 3DS XL. Most would go for that than the 2DS, ya?

No, you come on. I expected a 99$ platformm to sell more than 400-500$ platform. Stop spinning bad results. The 3DS family sold less than November 2011 even with bundles and lower price point.

lol wat, put down the trident, The only dog I have in this fight is for hard data.

2DS was never going to outpace the next gen stuff, ever. I don't care about the rest of the stuff you're talking about so zzzzz

 

[TrojanBlade]

My educated guestimation is the next concrete numbers you get out of Sony will be after they sell 500k in Asia in a day or two and it will be worldwide. They likely aren't going to give out the US November numbers. It's better pr to just say they won. Major Nelson isn't the only one doing spinning right now.

Wow that bad??? Are the supplies that limited that they only sold 100k rest of the month? I mean there is demand right?? They get sold out within minutes.

Hope Sony starts cranking up production else they will get behind.

 

[opticalmace]

Cream and sugar we need you....

For what? He/she already gave us a ton of info.

 

[Lynn616]

The software split is the most surprising thing to me.

PS4 software was selling for a longer period of time and the X1 has more exclusives.

 

[leatherhat]

I wish we could get some concrete killzone numbers besides >100k

 

[chubigans]

Maybe after the Asia launch Sony's gonna stuff the supply channel in NA again. A few overseas GAFfers are saying the next PS4 shipment isn't until Jan/Feb in their region.

 

[BlackJace]

For something like Zelda, I think so.

After 9 days?

 

[ascii42]

For something like Zelda, I think so.

It's in line with handheld Zelda games, I believe.

 

[creamsugar]

Exclusive: (<= the number above)

270k
KSF

220k
DR3
3D

200k
FM5
SOR

185k

100k
KNACK

90k

25k
SOCHI

20k

4k
FIGHTER

 

[ethomaz]

Creamsugar... Wii and PS3 please.

 

[Currygan]

I just hard four iced Jagermeister in a row. I feel even shitter than before

 

[Road]

If 424k for PS3 is real, we missing Wii and DS numbers.

We're missing PS4 NPD numbers.

Given the 2 million Vita, famousmortimer is probably mixing shipment with sales to consumes or Sony's internal estimates; North America? I have no idea what he's talking about, to be honest. (But thanks for the info.)

 

[famousmortimer]

I think the split between 360 and XB1 for Call of Duty is an interesting one. I wonder how big the split Titanfall will be between the two.

Interesting titanfall facts.

The 360 build is shaping up very nicely.

The xb1 build is looking like it's sticking with 720p.

The PC build will shit on the xb1 build.

Social metrics (twitter mentions, youtube views, etc) as dumb as they are usually are accurate predictors. Tf is trending behind infamous.


There's also some talk that titanfall 1 is going to feel more like the outline of a game moreso than a full title. It's laying the groundwork.


I'm excited as fuck to play titanfall. I will be there day one. But if you think it's going to do more than give the xb1 more than a couple hundred K bump over a couple months you're fooling yourself.

 

[Steel]

They're not launching in China.

*cough*

Japan will be one of the last countries to get their hands on the PS4, it appears, with the launch now confirmed for other Asian territories – including China, South Korea and Taiwan – just the month after the US and UK in December, while Japanese gamers will have to wait until February 2014.

 

[theprodigy]

You mean the exclusives that are not even charting in the top 10? Some allocation that is.

did you actually look at the XB1 software list creamsugar posted
of course no exclusive is breaking into the multiplat chart

For something like Zelda, I think so.

....not sure if srs

 

[Zornack]

Thank you Codeblew,
Given the additional shooters on PS4 (as someone mentioned earlier, sorry don't remember who) the CoD ratio is probably lower than Xbone therefore the ~1.05m would be a minimum. The final figure may be between 1.05 - 1.15m

The math is wrong because 6.4% isn't the attach rate. We need CoD's total November sales to figure out PS4's sales with this method.

 

[Visualante2]

That noodle of yours, please use it. How can we assume something is not resonating if it is selling everything it is shipping?

I don't mean to be painted as a Microsoft defender or anything, but the lack of perspective here is maddening. Sony and Microsoft have sold everything shipped to US stores. That's not an indication how either is going to do in the future, mind you, but it's hard to criticize a company for selling out.

I was talking about the percentage splits quoted for software, not hardware. I think it's pretty simple. PS4's lower price has attracted more of an audience that is just interested in sports titles and the exclusive content MS paid for has failed. I'm not trying to imply that won't change in the future but that's how I see it.

 

[rdrr gnr]

I think its in Sony interest to have Microsoft do well. 95% of the games will come to both platforms so the bigger the install base gets for the current gen the more developers jump on board and the more money they dump into their projects. If Microsoft wants to focus on and saturate two countries it makes sense for Sony to let them and expand the market elsewhere.

But we can't just reduce it to "two countries." They ostensibly the two most important countries. Sony did well WW this generation, but it sure as fuck didn't feel like that here in the U.S.

 

[Boke1879]

So after YEARS of touting that WW numbers were more important. Now you guys want Sony to pretty much only focus on NA?

What Sony is doing right now IS delivering the killing blow. Launching in all those regions that MS isn't will give Sony more mindshare and more of a foothold.

PS4 will have great success in NA. Even if Sony only manages to maintain sales parity with the Bone in NA that is considered a victory.

Now if those SW numbers can stay consistent it will show where gamers are actually shifting. Remember people will go to the console that their friends do.

Titanfall will be a VERY interesting case. Will it move units? Of course. Will it be significant? Who knows.

 

[Nightengale]

500k for Asia seems too much when Europe had 700k at launch.

If the initial demand is that high, it makes sense.

Let's not forget Asians like me are getting screwed by Sony due to their high prices over here. Sony is no doubt making a decent hardware profit from us.comoatd

 

[gcubed]

I think its in Sony interest to have Microsoft do well. 95% of the games will come to both platforms so the bigger the install base gets for the current gen the more developers jump on board and the more money they dump into their projects. If Microsoft wants to focus on and saturate two countries it makes sense for Sony to let them and expand the market elsewhere.

i guess famousmortimer's comment makes sense. The more they can run up the score in install base, the more expensive it makes it for MS to moneyhat 3rd party games... but any stock they send to the US now will be sold, so it doesn't matter where it goes. Whatever, Sony has been pretty good lately with the ps4 so i won't bash them too much yet.

 

[Delio]

Ignoring Wii completely is asinine.

As it contributed to the growth of the USA home console market. Significantly. Without it you get marginal growth at best, instead of the insane growth of the prior generation. Without both selling in the area of 60 million units USA alone you're looking at market contraction. If both follow the PS3 and 360 market contraction on the order of 40 million units.

Why do people completely ignore the Wii when it comes to this? I hope it's not people simply letting their own bias talk.

 

[Faustek]

This is the thinking as I understand it.



MS wanted to dominate US/UK enough to keep it close and make crazy money off of services.


Sony wants to sell more consoles. Period.


If at the end of '14 the ps4 and xb1 are close in the us/UK and Sony is trampling ms everywhere else... Sony wins at what it wants - games. And having the larger install base worldwide means that the price for Microsoft to money hat games goes up drastically with their reduced install base. There's also plenty of data that points to demand giving the ps4 legs well into '14 where the xb1 will get a march/April bump from titanfall and flatline until Halo. So there's a good chance that by next fall Sony has worldwide and us/UK. At that point it's a catastrophe for MS.


I'm guessing here as well but I also don't think they knew demand in the US would be this high. I mean it's not like Sony short changed NA. They broke the damn record for launch consoles sold. The problem for the US in December is Sony is in 30+ and growing markets and xb1 is in 13 while concentrating on 2 of them.


Will be fun. And competition will fight off complacency.

Agree in general in this post. But!

I do believe this is all for the long game. Major install base selling Gakai as a service to cement a future without the box and perhaps just "cheap" topboxes as the VitaTV or just a service in general to Stream content on already sold HW.

I could probably phrase that better but it's 04:30 here and I've been at work since 13:00

 

[DataGhost]

Exclusive: (<= the number above)

270k
KSF

220k
DR3
3D

200k
FM5
SOR

185k

100k
KNACK

90k

25k
SOCHI

20k

4k
FIGHTER

Nice, Knack barely made 100k but it made it

 

[ViewtifulJC]

I just hard four iced Jagermeister in a row. I feel even shitter than before

currygan pls

Bayonetta 2 is coming

 

[Satchel]

nope, and it's silly to think so. That audience for the Wii vanished.

fortunately MS and Sony don't really need to do 260 million each to stay viable, and no one sane is counting on that kind of a base.

Do people really think the 80 million the PS360 have sold each is the real install base?

Between people replacing dead consoles outside warranty, people buying multiple consoles for LAN/Limited Edition consoles etc, I'd put both console true usebases far lower than 80 mill.

Hell, I own a combined total of 7 PS360s, and HAVE owned about 13. I wouldn't be the only one in this boat. I still think the PS360 combined userbase is hugely inflated, so you combine that with the Wii userbase dropping off a cliff and there is no way one could realistically expect the One and PS4 to come near those numbers (250 combined or more). It just won't happen.

 

[Platy]

Still no tearaway sales ?

 

[Mifune]

Sony giving up the lead in the US to launch in Asia (a place where the XB1 has 0.01% chance of beating them and the Wii is struggling big time) is a bone head move of epic proportions. Something only Sony would do.

Why do people keep saying this? Should Sony just ignore other territories where they are popular just so they can dominate NPD every month? They have always seen this whole thing as a global business and that's not gonna change just because people want their new console to crush the competition in one territory.

 

[Pain]

This is the thinking as I understand it.



MS wanted to dominate US/UK enough to keep it close and make crazy money off of services.


Sony wants to sell more consoles. Period.


If at the end of '14 the ps4 and xb1 are close in the us/UK and Sony is trampling ms everywhere else... Sony wins at what it wants - games. And having the larger install base worldwide means that the price for Microsoft to money hat games goes up drastically with their reduced install base. There's also plenty of data that points to demand giving the ps4 legs well into '14 where the xb1 will get a march/April bump from titanfall and flatline until Halo. So there's a good chance that by next fall Sony has worldwide and us/UK. At that point it's a catastrophe for MS.


I'm guessing here as well but I also don't think they knew demand in the US would be this high. I mean it's not like Sony short changed NA. They broke the damn record for launch consoles sold. The problem for the US in December is Sony is in 30+ and growing markets and xb1 is in 13 while concentrating on 2 of them.


Will be fun. And competition will fight off complacency.

But whatever small lead Sony gives to Microsoft will multiply over time. A 100-200k lead do Microsoft in Christmas will turn into millions through word of mouth over time.

Sony deserves to lose America if they aren't serious about taking it. I can't see the general public waiting to get a PS4, especially not the parents looking for Christmas gifts.

 

[allan-bh]

We're missing PS4 NPD numbers.

We know that's around 200k more than Xbox One.

 

[friskykillface]

I'm curious to see how Ryse did.

hopefully the numbers get posted

 

[famousmortimer]

Maybe after the Asia launch Sony's gonna stuff the supply channel in NA again. A few overseas GAFfers are saying the next PS4 shipment isn't until Jan/Feb in their region.

That's the plan. And they are changing from boat to air to ship them here. There's a chance that the ps4 can catch up by the end of the month but right now ms has the US stuffed and Sony does not.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

I just hard four iced Jagermeister in a row. I feel even shitter than before

My man.

 

[oconnomiyaki]

Then ARMA III should be the best selling game.

People play COD first and foremost because it's fun to play.

I never said CoD wasn't fun to play. I'm an avid player of Ghosts and even have the season pass. But I still don't think it should be dismissed that Titanfall's aesthetic has the potential to be a hurdle.

When did CoD blow up? With Modern Warfare.

I still think it's too early to say that Titanfall will dominate. I say that as someone who is looking forward to it and thinks it looks absolutely a blast to play.